Free Picks for Sunday, April 23rd, 2017 from some of the nations best and worst handicappers
Dave Cokin
Cavs +1.5 1st Half
So how much pride do the Pacers have? That’s what this is all about as the series is a mere formality at this point.
I’m going to bank on professional character showing here. Indiana didn’t just let one get away in Game Three, they made history with the biggest in-game collapse in the history of the NBA playoffs.
We all know the Cavaliers are very prone to coasting, especially when issues are seemingly settled. So I’m going to look for some inspiration on the Indiana side that hopefully lasts for 24 minutes. I do not trust this team to win the game outright, but I’ll put some faith in the Pacers to win the first half.
Scott Rickenbach
Los Angeles at Utah
Play: Under 198½
Game 3 between these teams went over the total despite the Clippers attempting only 75 shots from the field and the Jazz finishing with only 69 field goal attempts. The fact the game still went over the total despite being played at a pace that is more conducive to an under is certainly helping to give us line value here. The Jazz had stayed under in 7 of their last 10 games prior to Friday's result. The Clippers had stayed under in 4 of their last 5 prior to the Game 3 result. The Jazz are fired up after Friday's defeat and they've gone 11-6 to the under this season when playing with home loss revenge. The Clippers have been shooting ridiculously high percentages and the Jazz know they must turn up the heat on defense, keep the pace to a slow "Utah pace" and force the Clips to make some tough shots. Utah knows this type of game plan is critical to them having a chance to even up this series. At home, the Jazz should be able to dictate the pace and Blake Griffin's injury certainly could be impacting to the Clippers here. He had 50 points in the first two games of this series before getting hurt during Game 3.
Sean Higgs
Cardinals vs. Brewers
Play: Cardinals -110
I'll be honest with you guys. I have no idea why I am taking this game. Mike Leake has been great so far this year. 21 innings with just 2 runs allowed, a .84 ERA . And on the opposite side of the hill, Jimmy Nelson. 0-7 in 9 games, 8 starts vs STL with a 7.34 ERA as STL hitters rake him for .316 clip. Yet. This game is a PK'em. Part of me says, if we are going Red Birds, just go RL +145. Go for the bigger payout. STL has had some trouble scoring as we noted with our Under play here last night. Obviously there will be a regression for Leake, and Nelson should eventually have a quality start vs the Cardinals. Sometimes it is easy to overthink things. And sometimes the odds-makers just put out a bad line. I am hoping it's the later.
Mike Lundin
Cardinals vs. Brewers
Play: Cardinals -110
The St. Louis Cardinals have won five of their last six games while the Milwaukee Brewers have dropped four of their last five.
Milwaukee right-hander Jimmy Nelson (1-0, 4.42 ERA) is 0-7 behind a bloated 7.34 ERA in previous meetings with the Cardinals. He was knocked around for seven runs on nine hits with a pair of homers in 5 1/3 innings at Chicago Cubs on Tuesday and the Brewers are 1-8 in Nelson's last nine starts with four days of rest.
St. Louis' red hot Mike Leake (2-1, 0.84 ERA) has allowed just two runs on 17 hits and a walk through 21 1/3 innings of work this season. He's 4-4 with a 4.30 ERA in 13 starts against the Brew Crew (4-2 with a 4.37 ERA in nine starts at Miller Park).
Jim Feist
Senators vs. Bruins
Play: Under 5
Ottawa is strong on defense, #10 in goals allowed, third in penalty killing. The defense has been great in this series, and the Under is 36-17-3 in the Senators last 56 vs. the Eastern Conference. They are also 7-3-2 under the total against a team with a winning record. Boston will focus on defense as it's win or the season is over. Boston is on a 9-3-1 run under the total, 4-1 under at home.
Brandon Lee
Mariners vs. A's
Play: A's -123
The price is right with the A's at home today. This is a big play on Oakland starter Andrew Triggs, who is 3-0 and yet to allow a run in 3 starts. This could be the next gem in the rough the A's organization has found. I'm willing to ride it out for a while, especially if he's laying less than -130 at home against a team that is sending out a starter like Yovani Gallardo, who has a 6.19 ERA in 3 starts, all losses for Seattle. I have yet to mention that the A's are red-hot having won 5 straight.
Ray Monohan
Cavs / Pacers Over 212.5
This play just missed out on our premium card. The Cavaliers try to close out the series against the Pacers on Sunday afternoon and at this number there is a lot of value. The first three games of this series have been high paced and featured a lot of scoring. Each of the first three games have combined for at least 217 points and I expect that in this game.
The Cavaliers are best when the pace is pushed and that is exactly what will happen in this game. Some trends to note. Over is 4-0 in Pacers last 4 vs. a team with a winning straight up record. Over is 5-1 in Pacers last 6 overall. Over is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings. There is going to be a lot more then 213 points scored.
Chip Chirimbes
Cavs vs. Pacers
Play: Pacers +4
How about those Pacers...I have seen so many turn-arounds in my time but few that match Cleveland's comeback win over Indiana Thursday night. I saw Lance Stephenson go from a cocky arrogant bully to a meek hesitating coward who would even take an open jump shot. After watching that it is difficult to gain perspective and recall that the Pacers are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games overall and are 10-3-1 ATS in their last 14 meetings against Cleveland. The Cavs were down 12 as LeBron hit a 3-pointer and was laughing because he 'knew' they were going to complete the comeback. This time the Pacers remain focused a full 48-minutes.
Scott Spreitzer
Braves vs. Phillies
Play: Phillies +110
Atlanta lost its fifth in a row and now is 2-8 on the road after its 4-3 10-inning loss to the Phillies on Saturday. Mike Foltynewicz has a 6.00 ERA against Philadelphia the last three years and in two games at Citizens Bank Park he has allowed seven runs and 12 hits in just 7 2/3 innings. Foltynewicz has walked seven batters in 12 2/3 innings this season and the Braves have lost both of his starts. The young Phillies have won three straight and Zach Eflin allowed two runs in five innings in his first start of the season against the Mets. Eflin faced Atlanta once in 2016 and pitched a complete game allowing one run and six hits. The Braves have lost 13 of Foltynewicz's last 19 road starts.
Mike Menase
Cubs vs. Reds
Play: Over 9
We have a meeting between two hot lineups. The Cubs have managed 34 runs in their past four games. The Reds have produced 13 runs in their past two games. Both lineups enjoy a favorable match-up versus the respective pitcher and should produce today.
The Reds' batters love facing Lackey. Against him they have produced a .316 BA and .863 ops in 136 at-bats. Lackey relies on a variety of pitches which induce both ground and fly balls. Against such versatile pitchers the Reds are at their best, producing a .747 ops thus far. The Reds are strongest against right-handed pitchers in general, enjoying a .768 ops in over 450 at-bats against right-handed starters. I expect the Reds to knock around Lackey.
The Cubs hitters should enjoy a strong performance against Arroyo. Arroyo is very much a finesse pitcher who relies on precision where he cannot enjoy any power. The Cubs are at their best against finesse pitchers, producing a .767 ops against them. Jon Jay has not hit finesse pitchers in general well, but he evidently matches up well with Arroyo, against whom he is 15/40 lifetime, with five extra-base hits. Arroyo has consistently been getting shelled on the season and Chicago batters should be very productive against him, as they are strongest against pitchers who rely on finesse over power, which Arroyo does to an extreme degree, because he struggles so much with velocity.
Tim Adleman, a low-velocity pitcher, indeed only gave up two runs in six innings against the Cubs, but his fip was actually 6.38, meaning that Chicago batters were hitting the ball well, but unluckily into the direction of Cincinnati outfielders. And yet that game still went over the run total, because the Cubs were able to damage Cincinnati's elite bullpen. This team has firepower and is hot, now. And we can rely on them to hit Arroyo hard, even though they haven't seen much of him. The Reds will continue to hit Lackey well. Both lineups will contribute to this game exceeding the run total.
Marc Lawrence
Washington at New York
Play: Washington -150
Edges - Nationals: Scherzer 6-1 last seven away team starts during April… Mets: Wheeler 3-6 last nine overall team starts, including 0-4 the last four at home. With the Nats 10-4 the last 14 games in this series, we recommend a 1* play on Washington.
Jimmy Boyd
Rockets vs. Thunder
Play: Rockets +1½
I like the value here with Houston, who hasn't played great in either of the last two games. They were especially bad in Game 3 and still almost won the game. I just don't think OKC has enough outside of Westbrook to make this a series. Game 3 is always a letdown spot for the team up 2-0. I look for the Rockets to come out all business here and wouldn't be shocked if they won this one going away.
Houston has gone an impressive 11-3 ATS as a road dog this season and are 133-4 ATS on the road with a line of +3 to -3. The Rockets are also 12-2 ATS this season when revenging a road loss and a perfect 7-0 ATS in this spot when revenging a road loss where they allowed 110 or more points.
Sonny Goldman
Rockets vs. Thunder
Play: Thunder -1½
The Oklahoma City Thunder won (non-cover) Game 3 because of a huge game by Russell Westbrook.
Westbrook and Oklahoma City gets its chance to even the series Sunday afternoon when it hosts the Rockets in Game 4.
Houston was 4-12 in the regular season when shooting less than 30 percent from long range, and will have to do a better job from 3pt range.
The Thunder were determined to take away or contest all 3s and then swarm to the paint, making it difficult for the Rockets to score the way they like to excel.
Dustin Hawkins
Detroit at Minnesota
Play: Detroit -101
Detroit pitcher Michael Fulmer is 11-3 against the money line vs. an AL team with a team batting average of .260 or worse over the last 2 seasons.The Twins are 7-24 against the money line in home games vs. a starting pitcher whose gives up 5.5 or less hits/start over the last 2 seasons. Fulmer is also 21-8 against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons.