Rob Vinciletti
Chicago vs. Cincinnati
Play: Chicago -164
The Cubs fit a solid system that has won 22 of 30 times the last 15 seasons that plays on certain road favorites off a 2+ runs road favored win and scored 10 or more runs vs a team that scored 5+ runs in a home dog loss. The Cubs are 6-1 on the road off a road win scoring 10 or more and they have won 6 of 7 vs .500 or less teams. The Reds have lost 17 of 21 here against Chicago and they have B. Arroyo going and he has a 8.40 Era in his 3 starts this season. Look for the Cubs and Lackey to take this one.
Will Rogers
Washington vs. Toronto
Pick: Toronto
The set-up: The Washington Capitals own a very checkered postseason history. The Caps needed six games to beat the eighth-seeded Philadelphia Flyers last year to set up a second-round meeting with Sidney Crosby and Pittsburgh. Now, the two-time reigning Presidents' Trophy winners can repeat that feat by winning tonight in Toronto, which would again give them a second-round meeting with Sid and the Pens! However, the Maple Leafs have basically played the Caps even in this series, with just a one goal-differential (Capitals' 16-15) and a shot total that is dead-even (175-175)!
Washington: The Caps took a 3-2 lead in this series when the 35-year-old Justin Williams, a three-time Stanley Cup winner, scored his third goal of the series just 64 seconds into overtime in Friday's 2-1 victory. Washington's third-ranked power play has made its presence felt in this series, scoring a goal in four of the five contests and going 5-for-15 overall (33.3 percent). Right-winger T.J. Oshie is riding a career-high, seven-game playoff point streak (five goals, five assists) while center Nicklas Backstrom has at least one point in four consecutive contests (two goals, four assists).
Toronto: As I've noted before, the Maple Leafs are being served well by their youth. Auston Matthews continued his goal-scoring surge on Friday, becoming the fourth rookie in franchise history to tally in three or more consecutive playoff games. Fellow first-year forward William Nylander and Zach Hyman each notched an assist on the second-period goal to extend their respective point streaks to three games, with the former collecting one goal and three assists on his stretch while the latter has scored a goal and set up two others in his run.
The pick: Washington captain Alex Ovechkin left Game 5 late in the first period at the Verizon Centre when he was hit on the left knee by a low hip check from Toronto's Nazem Kadri. However, Capitals head coach Barry Trotz said " he is fine and we expect him to be ready to go (for Game 6)." The Caps have won back-to-back one-goal games after falling behind 2-1 in the series but the team's playoff history is full of pitfalls (pratfalls?) and I'll take Toronto to extend this series to a Game 7.
Brandon Shively
Boston vs. Chicago
Pick: Under
The Bulls offense isn't the same without Rajon Rondo. Not only has he been shooting the ball well of late, but more importantly he keeps the ball moving. Jimmy Butler and Dwyane Wade get a lot more open looks when Rondo is healthy. The Celtics defense looks much better without him on the floor.
Chicago has been good defensively down the stretch, and I think we'll see a better effort from them on defense than we saw a couple nights ago.
Both teams know the importance of this game and it should be a close lower scoring contest.
Bruce Marshall
Giants at Rockies
Pick: Rockies
San Francisco looks a very troubled team at the moment, with Madison Bumgarner's bizarre injury adding to the angst caused by lack of production from the outfield bats and some shaky pitching from the non-Bumgarner pieces of the rotation. Such as Jeff Samardzija with his 6.16 ERA, including a loss to the Rockies last Sunday. Colorado rookie starter Kyle Freeland has been keeping the ball down, with 31 of his 46 outs recorded via ground balls.
Brad Wilton
I don't know about you, but if I happened to be a member of a team that led another team by 26-points on my home court in the most important game of the season, and I/we wound up losing said game by 5 points to trail 0-3 in a best-of-seven series...well, let's just say I don't know how you get up for today's 4th game?!?!?!
That is the predicament the Pacers find themselves in today against the defending NBA champion Cavaliers, and I just feel that after their epic collapse on Thursday, there is no way in God's green earth the Pacers play a full 4 quarters today. Oh, don't get me wrong, Indiana is not going to quit right away, but as soon as Cleveland "feels" it, and takes the lead - and they will - then Indiana will fold tent and see their season end on their home hardwood
With Thursday's win and cover, Cleveland has now bested Indiana in 6 in a row straight up, and they have covered the last pair of times they have been favored by -5 points or less against the Pacers.
The Cavaliers have looked very shaky to end the regular season, and at times through the first 3 games of this series, but Thursday night's game both shows me, and tells me that the Cavs are still the class of the East.
Lay away with Cleveland on Sunday.
5* CLEVELAND
Mike Lundin
Cardinals vs. Brewers
Play: Cardinals -110
The St. Louis Cardinals have won five of their last six games while the Milwaukee Brewers have dropped four of their last five.
Milwaukee right-hander Jimmy Nelson (1-0, 4.42 ERA) is 0-7 behind a bloated 7.34 ERA in previous meetings with the Cardinals. He was knocked around for seven runs on nine hits with a pair of homers in 5 1/3 innings at Chicago Cubs on Tuesday and the Brewers are 1-8 in Nelson's last nine starts with four days of rest.
St. Louis' red hot Mike Leake (2-1, 0.84 ERA) has allowed just two runs on 17 hits and a walk through 21 1/3 innings of work this season. He's 4-4 with a 4.30 ERA in 13 starts against the Brew Crew (4-2 with a 4.37 ERA in nine starts at Miller Park).
I think we're getting a very reasonable price on the Cardinals here.
Carmine Bianco
AS Monaco at Lyon
Play: Lyon +204
unday's Free Play is a Lyon at a nice price (+204) to get the win at home over league leaders Monaco. It's been a big week for Monaco as they completed the upset of Dortmund in Champions League quarterfinal play and now travel to Lyon where they've had trouble in the past. A letdown after a big midweek is possible. Lyon are a top 5 team at home and have outscored opponents by a 2-1 margin (39-19).
Chris Jordan
My free play for Sunday is on the Philadelphia Phillies against the Atlanta Braves.
As I told you yesterday with my 400♦ Winner, we have two teams headed in opposite directions for the time being, and that's why I'm taking the streaking Phillies over the slumping Braves.
The Phillies, who lost eight of the first 12 games, come into this one having won four of their last five after another 4-3 win over the Braves on Saturday night. The Braves, meanwhile, have lost five straight.
Philadelphia was riding high into the weekend after a series win in New York against the Mets, and it's sparked the Phillies' offense, which has scored 24 runs and is hitting better than .270 over the last five games.
Don't bother listing pitchers in this one, as it's purely on momentum. Quick and to the point, the Phils are the right side because they're in the right place at the right time and playing well.
3* PHILLIES
Jack Brayman
Looking for my fifth straight free pick winner, after hitting the Capitals on Wednesday, the Under in the Nationals-Braves game on Thursday and the Orioles on Friday and Saturday.
This afternoon my free winner is on the Baltimore Orioles once again, as I like them to defeat the Boston Red Sox in American League East action.
With the Orioles suddenly on a hot streak, it looks like I'll be keeping a close watch on Baltimore heading into the next week. The Orioles' Dylan Bundy did a good job in keeping hitters off balance Friday night, and last night I got there with left-hander Jayson Aquino, who was promoted Wednesday from Triple-A Norfolk and made his MLB debut.
Today, there is no pitcher needed. All Orioles, who have won four in a row.
That win streak and the momentum from the past two days in this series is all Baltimore will need tonight.
Take the Orioles and don't list either starter.
2* ORIOLES
Eric Schroeder
My free winner for Sunday night is on the Minnesota Twins against the Detroit Tigers, and in this game I want you listing Kyle Gibson and Michael Fulmer.
So here's the deal, these two pitchers met already, and the Tigers defeated Minnesota. Gibson, who has struggled this year, took the loss.
Minnesota's starting right-hander has allowed four home runs through his first three starts, and he's yet to last longer than 5 1/3 innings. At some point, the normally durable Gibson will find his groove, as he's a ground-ball pitcher.
Look for Gibson to finally get late sinking action with that fastball that ranges between 89 and 92 miles per hour and paints the corners on both sides of the dish.
Fulmer comes in after taking a hard-luck loss in his last start against the Rays, and will struggle on the road in this Sunday matinee.
1* TWINS
John Martin
Cavs vs. Pacers
Play: Cavs -3.5
The Cleveland Cavaliers have simply ripped the hearts out of the Indiana Pacers. They won by one point in Game 1, held off a late rally to win by 6 in Game 2, and erased a 26-point deficit to win by 5 in Game 3. The Pacers are now beaten down and realize that this series is over. I don't expect them to show up at all today. Lebron James is proud of his 20-0 record in his last 20 first round games and can tie Magic Johnson's record of 21 straight with another win Sunday. He'll be motivated to do just that as he leads the Cavaliers to a win and cover today.
Jack Jones
Cavs vs. Pacers
Play: Over 213
Oddsmakers continue to set the bar too low in this Game 4 between the Indiana Pacers and Cleveland Cavaliers. All they do is go OVER the total and play no defense, yet the number has only been set at 213 points here today.
Indeed, the OVER is 5-1 in the last six meetings. The Cavs and Pacers have combined for at least 217 points in each of their last six meetings. They have averaged 234.8 combined points per game in those six meetings, which is roughly 22 points more than today's 213-point total.
I think defense will be optional once again here Sunday, especially with the state of this series. The Cavs basically have it wrapped up already and I don't think you'll see much resistance from the Pacers here. Both teams love to play small ball, and that will be the case again in this game with defense optional.
The OVER is 6-1 in Cavs last seven games overall. The OVER is 5-1 in Pacers last six games overall. Cleveland is 21-8 OVER as a road favorite this season. Indiana is 15-5 OVER as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season.
SPORTS WAGERS
COLORADO -1½ +195 over San Francisco
We’re not going to go into a lot of details here regarding the pitchers because it matters not when playing at Coors Field. We are going to commit to playing the underdog all season long at Coors Field on the ALTERNATIVE run line. What that means is that we are playing the remainder of Colorado’s home games this season and we’ll be playing the underdog in each game, whether it’s the Rocks or the opposition and we’ll be playing it regardless of who’s pitching. We’re suggesting that this wager has nothing but big profits in store. With totals being in the 10 to 12½ range daily at this venue, far more games are decided by two runs or more than one run and the underdog wins just as much as the favorite. The pitching matchups rarely matter because even the best get rocked at this park. We’ll keep a running record on this angle all season long:
Chicago -1½ +106 over CINCINNATI
John Lackey (RHP) gets this start and we're surely not going to question this old dog, who keeps sniffing out success wherever he goes. He throws strikes, gets whiffs (with additional swing and miss rate support in 2016), and limits baserunners. At some point the snarl will eclipse the stuff, but no signs of that yet. He’s a loyal and reliable friend but more than that is our attack on Bronson Arroyo (RHP) must continue.
Arroyo has a job because the Reds need someone to eat innings and to show all these young arms the ropes. It’s not a bad idea to have a guy like Arroyo around because he’s had success at this level and there isn’t much he hasn’t seen. However, at age 40, he can't be counted on to produce. In 15 frames, Arroyo has been tagged for five jacks. In 11 innings at Great American, he’s been tagged for three bombs and eight earned runs. Arroyo has an 8.40 ERA, a 1.53 WHIP a 37%/44% groundball/fly-ball split and an 84 MPH fastball. Nothing more needs to be said.
N.Y. Yankees +104 over PITTSBURGH
The Yankees are 11-6 while the Pirates are 7-10 so there’s that. The Yankees 1.63 bullpen ERA is vastly superior to the Pirates 4.31 bullpen ERA so there’s that also. To complete the trifecta, New York is hitting .266 while the Pirates are hitting .229. If this game is tied late or the Yanks have the lead, New York’s win expectation increases. Pittsburgh is favored here because Ivan Nova (RHP) is starting against a Yankees rookie.
Leaving Yankee Stadium and the AL East for Pittsburgh’s more spacious park helped deflate Nova’s horrendous 1st half hr/f and ERA. A July strikeout rate surge touched off Nova’s 2nd half recovery before that August trade. Ivan Nova had three walks in his final 64 IP, with a 2.42 ERA in PNC Park and this year he has yet to walk a batter in three starts. He also has a 2.25 ERA after three starts so we can understand why he’s favored here. Working with pitcher whisperer/pitching coach Ray Searage has done wonders for Nova but it’s also worth noting that he only has eight strikeouts this season in those 20 innings to go along with a 5% swing and miss rate. His 3.81 xERA says some runs against are on the horizon. As much as Nova benefits from pitching at PNC Park, the other pitcher gets to pitch there too.
That other pitcher would be Jordan Montgomery (LHP). A somewhat surprising winner of the No. 5 slot out of spring training, 24-year-old Jordan Montgomery has already acquitted himself well through two starts. The 6'6", 225-pound lefty hasn't had the most attention, but he just keeps putting up good results year after year. In particular, notice how he went from Double-A to Triple-A last year, and all of his numbers improved after the jump. Montgomery has four pitches: fastball, change-up, slider and curve, though his curve is a work in progress. His fastball velocity is moderate, reaching the mid-90s mph, but his change-up shows impressive arm speed. He has an over-the-top delivery, and when you are 6'6" and throwing over the top, it can seem faster to the batter. He repeats his delivery well and knows how to change speeds effectively. He also gets groundballs, isn't afraid to throw inside, doesn't walk too many and has a career 0.3 hr/9. What's not to like? Getting groundballs, not walking that many to keep his WHIP low, and using a deceptive delivery of three pitches to keep batters guessing, Montgomery should be in great position to hand the ball over to the pen with a chance to win. He has 11 K’s in 11 innings with a 15% swing and miss rate and it sure doesn’t hurt that the Pirates have never seen him before.
SPORTS WAGERS
INDIANA +150 over Cleveland
For Indiana, this series is “what could have been” as the Pacers could easily be up 2-1 right now as opposed to finding themselves warding off a potential sweep. Indiana lost Game 1 to Cleveland by a point but they could have easily won had shooting guard C.J Miles hit a wide-open look at the buzzer. The Cavaliers would continue on to win by six points in the follow-up in Game 2. In Game 3, Indiana would once again spoon-feed the Cavaliers a victory, as they blew a 25-point halftime lead and in what was classed as one of the all-time great comebacks led by none other than the NBA’s favorite son, LeBron James, who compiled 41 points to orchestrate the feat in Indianapolis. Much of the public likely sees this game as a curtain call for Paul George and company, as the Cavaliers are primed to finish-off a beleaguered and likely demoralized Pacers’ team.
Targeting reactions is a big part of our betting acumen. This scenario undoubtedly shapes up to be one of those situations. Though Cleveland is the King of the East, the Pacers had high hopes of challenging Cleveland this season for the division and certainly achieve a higher seed than the #7 position they acquired by having to fight their way into the playoffs. The Pacers have had the services of a healthy Paul George and when he brings his A-Game, he makes the short list of best forwards in the game. George is complemented by a veteran sniper in shooting guard Monta Ellis whom arrived in Indianapolis last season, as a pick-up to bolster the Pacers shooting operations and finally this year, Jeff Teague was signed to run the point and facilitate the action. Jeffrey “Run The League” Teague made a name for himself in Atlanta and with the likes of Ellis, George and Miles to play with, many believed this Indiana team was capable of a deep run. However, the opposite is taking shape and now the inevitable is staring the Pacers in the face.
However, we’re suggesting that the Pacers have a win left in them. For one, no team likes to be swept. Secondly, Indiana did have a 25-point-lead at home and thought just showing up for the second half would be enough. They also almost had two victories in Cleveland. Finally, the Cavs were a .500 team on the road this year (21-21) and since everything is about money, another home game is worth a few million to the Cavs so there are some folks that would not mind seeing that happen. Expect the Pacers best effort but don’t expect Cleveland’s in this early afternoon affair.
Bob Balfe
Red Sox/Orioles Over 9
Boston is hot with the bats right now and neither starting pitcher is off to a good start. The Orioles have homerun ability up and down the line up and today’s game should be a classic slugfest. Look for a lot of scoring. Take the Over.