DAVE COKIN
MARLINS VS. GIANTS
PLAY: MARLINS +103
Adam Conley isn’t what one would call a household name, but the Miami southpaw has raised some eyebrows early this season. Conley might not have the attractive ERA some bettors put great stock into. But if you look beyond that number, you’re likely to be impressed with what the young lefty is doing.
Conley has been a bit on the unlucky side as far as some of the analytics are concerned. The BB/K numbers are glittering, there’s an adjustment coming with the BABIP, and Conley has been really good in each of his last two starts. Don’t be misled by the most recent stat line, as he wore out and got knocked around, but Conley was pretty dominant prior to that.
The Giants could have their hands full with Conley here. He’s got a deceptive motion and while he’s not what one would call overpowering, he’s certainly no picnic to face. None of the Giants have seen him, and I’ve always been one who especially likes lefties against hitters with nothing but film and/or scouting reports to go on.
Matt Cain is pitching for the Giants, and it really looks as though Cain is no more than back of the rotation filler at this point. That could change, but in light of the injuries and the innings already logged, I think it’s unlikely. Cain is probably savvy enough to get by, but he’s strictly a bulldog at this juncture.
I can’t say there’s a load of value here, as it sure looks like the books are onto Cain’s decline from his front of the rotation days. But even that is not discouraging bettors from playing against him, as is the case with the early action on this game.
The Giants can knock lefties around and it’s pretty clear that Miami is playing lousy baseball to start the season. I can’t help but wonder about when the next Marlins fire sale is coming. There’s ample documentation to rely upon in speculating that’s a when and not an if that this franchise’s upper management decides to repeat the process yet again. But that’s for another day. Today, I’ll look for Conley and Marlins to cash a ticket as a small underdog against the Giants.
Sleepyj
Boston Celtics -125
We went with the C's in Game 3 on the ML and picked up a win...We will do that same wager here again as I believe Boston will win this one as well...It's rather clear what Boston is doing now..They are taking away Millsap and Horford as much as they can...The paint hasn't been great for the Hawks and in order for them to win they need to shoot a higher %...This game will be even more intense now that the series can be tied up..I expect the C's to play some really strong defense in this one...Both teams benches are good, but I favor Boston a little here...Big thing is Kent Bazmore launching up 20 shots last game..The Hawks hit just 9 of 36 3pt attempts..That's only 25%, while Boston shot 34%...Free throw line was in favor of Boston as they made 6 more free throws on 12 extra attempts..It's the little thing s Boston did to win the game..Atlanta really didn't do much IMO besides the 3rd qtr push..Boston took care of that in the 4th behind a crazed crowd...C's will look to push the pace, but I can see Atlanta trying to slow things down a bit here as well..I lean to the under as I think this number is a tad high..Boston should get this one and even this thing up..I got this one 101-98 C's
Bruce Marshall
Twins / Nationals Under 7.5
Minnesota is a deserving underdog this afternoon, but perhaps we should not completely discount the Twins. Especially since starter Tyler Duffey fared well in 10 starts last season and was working with a 1.72 ERA and 1.40 WHIP with 13 strikeouts in 15.2 innings over three starts at Triple-A this year before being recalled to replace Ervin Santana in D.C. this afternoon. If Duffey is somewhat effective it helps keep this one "under" since it is doubtful Minnesota does much damage vs. Stephen Strasburg and his 1.25 ERA.
Ben Burns
Warriors vs. Rockets
Play: Rockets +8½
The Rockets are getting a large handful of points here and I believe that big number is providing us with some value. Curry is expected to be "back" for Game 4. However, Houston believes its "back" in the series. While winning the series remains an extreme longshot, that Game 3 victory should give the Rockets the confidence to know that they can compete - and that they at least have a fighting chance. I expect Harden and co. to be absolutely "ready to play" on Sunday afternoon. With Houston at 29-12 ATS (30-11 SU) the past few seasons, when playing with two day's rest, consider grabbing the points.
Scott Spreitzer
Mariners vs. Angels
Play: Angels -127
If Wade Miley could wipe the months of April and May off the calendar, his ERA over the last three seasons would be a decent 3.73. But he can't and Miley has been a terribly slow starter, saddled with a 5.13 ERA in 68 April/May starts, to go along with a 1.41 WHIP. He's been even worse in his first three starts this season. First look at Matt Shoemaker's numbers and his peripherals don't impress in 2016. But before a weak outing to begin this season, the right-hander held a 2.61 ERA & 1.12 WHIP in his previous 27 appearances at Angel Stadium. He punched-out more batters than IP (142 in 141 1/3) in those home outings, and he's allowed less than 1 HR per 9 IP. His home ERA is more than two runs lower than it is on the road since the start of the 2013 season. In addition, Shoemaker has slammed the door on the Mariners in eight appearances, including six starts. The Angels are on a 35-16 run at home against southpaws and they have taken 43 of the last 63 at home against Seattle.
Marc Lawrence
Chicago at Cincinnati
Play: Chicago -170
Edges - Cubs; Jason Hammel 6-3 career team starts versus Cincinnati, including 3-0 the last three in this park; and 12-4 last sixteen team starts during April. Reds: Alfredo Simon 0-3 with a 10.80 ERA last three team starts during April. With Hammel sporting a 1.00 ERA along with a 1.11 WHIP this season, we recommend a 1* play on the Chicago Cubs.
Martin Griffiths
Leicester vs. Swansea City
Play: Under 2½
What a huge game this is for Leicester City, a win takes them one massive step closer to the title, anything less than a win and they hand title rivals Tottenham a massive opportunity to close the gap.
The pressure may be starting to tell on Leicester, last week they had their top scorer Jamie Vardy sent off and he will be absent from this game, how much of an impact that will have is yet to be answered, it may make little difference, on the other hand it could be very significant, especially for a team that has relied on Vardy's speed all season long.
Swansea have nothing to play for other than pride, they wont be relegated and they cannot make Europe, but that does not mean they will not be competitive.
No team wants to be accused of not trying or not bothering to put in their best when playing against a team challenging for the title, but who knows, they may get caught up in the romance of the Foxes winning the title.
I am not confident in this game in terms of a winner, simply because the absence of Vardy could be significant, it is the great unknown, it is also hard to calculate whether the pressure has finally got to Leicester, but that does not mean that there is not an opportunity here.
Leicester have a solid defence and Swansea do not have the most formidable front line and I cannot see the Swans scoring more than once, the same applies with Leicester, I just do not see them scoring more than once either, they could win 1-0 or this game be a low scoring draw, but whatever happens I do not see this game going over 2.5 goals and so Unders is the pick for me.
Big Al
Panthers vs. Islanders
Pick: Islanders
The Panthers not only lost a critical game five at home in overtime to the Isles on Friday night, but they also suffered another blow that could have an effect on game six back in New York. Already down one center when they placed Dave Bolland on I-R back at the end of the February, the Panthers lost C Nick Bjugstad on Friday when he was checked into the boards and suffered a head injury. It's doubtful at this point that Bjugstad will be able to play tonight and since they just got Vincent Trocheck back and put him on the #3 line on Friday, the effectiveness of their lines is very much in doubt with this latest injury. The last thing Florida wanted to do was to give the Isles momentum going back to Brooklyn for game six but that's exactly what they did with their loss on Friday and now the Isles return to a place that's been very good to them in this inaugural season. The Isles are 6-0 in their last six games after scoring two goals or less in their previous game and they're also 5-1 in their last six after their opponent allows two or less.
Power Sports
Oakland vs. Toronto
Pick: Toronto
For the first time all season, the A's lost a road game yday, 9-3 here in Toronto. That was after taking the series opener by a score of 8-5. Saturday's setback not only ended a 7-0 start to the season on the road, but also snapped a 6-game win streak overall. Still, Toronto is the better team here & they'll take the series.
Looking back to last year, we know what this Blue Jays offense is capable of doing. They "lapped" the field in terms of runs per game in 2015 and averaged 5.5 runs per game here at Rogers Centre. So, it was no surprise to see them "bust loose" for nine runs yday as Josh Donaldson and Troy Tulowitzki combined for three home runs. I like this lineup's chances today facing embattled Oakland starter Eric Surkamp, who carries a 1.636 WHIP (three starts) into Sunday's matinee.
This game marks the season debut for Jays starter Drew Hutchinson. It's just a spot start as Hutchinson lost his place in rotation despite a successful 2015 in terms of wins and losses. The key to that success (went 13-5 in 28 starts) was that the offense tended to "show up" for him as Hutchinson benefited from a MLB-best 7.90 run support average. It's dangerous to back a starter like that because "what if" the offense goes away? But I don't anticipate the offense going away here for the Jays and besides, one of Hutchinson's better starts last year came against these A's as he allowed just two runs and only four hits in 7+ IP.
Jim Feist
Red Sox at Astros
Pick Over
Boston brings an offense that is #5 in on base percentage and #6 in runs to Houston. They pounded out 15 hits in winning here Friday and Boston is 14-4 OVER the total against a team with a winning percentage below .400. Unfortunately the pitching staff has been very week, #25 in team ERA. Young starter Henry Owens (4.57 ERA in 2015) does not throw hard and makes his first start of the campaign. The left-hander has been able to overcome some ongoing control issues so far in the minors this season, but that was not the case against major league competition during spring training. Houston's pitching staff has been worse, #27 in team ERA. Starter Scott Feldman (0-2, 4.11 ERA) comes off a 7-5 loss at Texas and has been awful, allowing 18 hits and 7 walks in 15 innings. This shapes up as an offensive show and the over is 11-5 when these teams clash.
Larry Ness
Texas vs. Chicago
Pick: Chicago
Chicago’s rotation owns a combined 1.09 ERA over the last five games & Mat Latos...
Mat Latos had put together 14 wins in a season THREE times in his career since reaching the majors in 2009, entering the 2016 season. Those came in 2010 with San Diego and with Cincinnati in 2012 and 2013. Injuries limited him to just 16 starts in 2014 with the Reds and Cincy, in an effort to reduce payroll, traded Latos to the Marlins during the 2014 winter meetings. Latos had fluid drained from his left knee during spring training and struggled through knee pain through May. He went on the DL after his May 21 start to rest his knee and returned in mid-June.
The Dodgers acquired Latos through a three-team deal with the Marlins and Braves on July 30th of last season. He was 0–3 while allowing 19 runs in just 24.1 innings, losing his starting job due to his poor performance and was designated for assignment on September 17. The Dodgers released Latos on September 25 and he signed a contract with the Angels that would allow him to pitch the last week of the season for them. Latos was not eligible to pitch for the Angels in the postseason and prior to the 2016 season, Latos signed a one-year contract worth $3 million with the White Sox.
Plagued by knee troubles and banished to the bullpen by the end of last season, as Latos posted a career-worst 4.95 ERA and finished 4-10 with three teams in a nomadic 2015 season. However, he has been an early revelation with Chicago, winning each of his first three starts, posting an 0.49 ERA, 0.60 WHIP and opponents have batted a miniscule .097 against him. Who’da thunk it? The rejuvenated right-hander now looks to continue a stellar stretch from White Sox starters and pitch surprising 12-6 Chicago to a three-game sweep of the Texas Rangers on Sunday.
Chicago’s rotation owns a combined 1.09 ERA over the last five games and Latos will face a Texas team which entered the series with FOUR straight wins but has lost 5-0 and 4-3 in the first two games. Derek Holland (2-0, 2.70 ERA) gets the nod for Texas, coming off back-to-back wins. Holland knows more than a little about struggling with injuries lately, as after making 92 starts for Texas from 2011 through 2013 (he was 38-221 and the team 56-36 in those starts), Holland has made just 15 starts in 2014 and 2015, combined.
Holland will be looking for his first career win against Chicago and is 0-2 with a 7.98 ERA in five career games (including three starts) against the White Sox, as he attempts to prevent a FIFTH straight Rangers loss in Chicago to the White Sox. Will Texas avoid the sweep? My bet says N-O!
Frank Jordan
San Antonio Spurs vs. Memphis Grizzlies
Play: San Antonio Spurs -12.5
The Spurs have owned Memphis this series winning by 32, 26 and nine. Impressive part has been the defense by the Spurs limiting the Grizzlies to an average of 76 points per game while offensively scoring an average of 98 points per game. The Spurs are on a mission to win one more and after falling in the playoffs last year they retooled in the offseason and are poised to win this series in four straight or a beat up Memphis team. Look for the Spurs to continue to cruise over Memphis as they are just too good and have too many options offensively along with too strong of team defense to be beaten.
Mike Lundin
Pittsburgh vs. Arizona
Play: Under 9
The Pittsburgh Pirates and the Arizona Diamondbacks are entering Sunday's finale of a three-game set tied at 1-1. I think runs will be hard to come by for both teams in today's rubber match.
Francisco Liriano (1-1, 4.11 ERA) will take the ball for the Pirates looking to bounce back from a rough outing at San Diego where he conceded four runs on six htis and five walks with a pair of homers over 4 1/3 innings. The southpaw is however 1-0 with a 1.96 ERA in three visits to Chase Field and has the current members of the D'Backs limited to a .202 AVG over 94 at bats.
Arizona will turn to another left-hander in Robbie Ray (1-0, 1.96) who's coming off in his finest effort of the season when he held the Giants scoreless over six innings of five-hit ball on Tuesday.
Under is 11-2 in the D'Backs last 13 during Game 3 of a series. Under is 4-1-1 in the last six meetings in Arizona and 6-2-1 in the last nine meetings overall.
Jimmy Boyd
Pistons ++6½
For some teams being down 0-3 in a best of 7 series is enough to call it quits and start looking ahead to the offseason, but I believe that will be the case for the Pistons when they take the floor for Game 4 tonight against the Cavaliers. Detroit has been right there with Cleveland in all 3 games at the half, but haven't been able to make the big plays late to pull out the victory.
While the series is all but over, I look for the Pistons to put up a serious fight to keep their season going and wouldn't be shocked if they won this game outright. Cleveland is in the ultimate letdown spot with a commanding lead in the series and know they can put the icing on the cake in Game 5 at home if needed. Either way I expect Detroit to keep this game close and cover the spread.
Keep in mind that teams who have covered 2 straight as a favorite against an opponent off a home loss by 10 or more are just 28-58 (33%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. The Cavaliers are also just 8-20 in their last 28 off back-to-back wins by 10 or more points, while the Pistons are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 home games revenging a loss of 10 or more.
Scott Delaney
In the NHL Playoffs, the goal in picking winners is to find the hot goaltender.
The New York Islanders just may have a dandy in Thomas Greiss, who has the Islanders in position to reach the second round for the first time since 1993. The wild-card Islanders can clinch the first-round upset in front of a home crowd, after Friday's 2-1 double-overtime win in Florida.
Greiss, who had logged all of 40 playoff minutes before the series, stopped 47 shots in Game 5 and 92 of the last 95 he's faced. He has a 2.09 goals-against average and .938 save percentage over all five contests.
At home, he will be on fire.
Four of the five games have been decided by a goal and two have reached overtime, and the Panthers' three one-goal defeats have all included at least one Islanders' power-play goal. That could spell trouble in Long Island tonight, as the home crowd will be rocking.
The Rangers are out, so it's time for the Islanders to step up for the Big Apple.
5* ISLANDERS