Free Picks for Sunday, April 2nd, 2017 from some of the nations best and worst handicappers
Ray Monohan
Indiana / Cleveland Over 214
This play just missed out on our premium card. The Pacers and the Cavaliers match up on Sunday evening and when they play one thing is guaranteed, there is going to be a ton of points scored. Both teams have really had problems stopping anyone as of late, and that is a good thing for you , and your pocketbook.
The Pacers haven't been scoring a ton of points as of late, and that kept the O/U low, but to keep up with the Cavs they are going to have to. Some trends to note. Over is 7-1 in Pacers last 8 overall. Over is 4-1 in Pacers last 5 games following a ATS loss. Over is 5-1 in Cavaliers last 6 vs. Eastern Conference.
214 is just too low, this game is going to be a shootout.
Brandon Lee
Yankees vs. Rays
Play: Rays -101
I'll gladly back Tampa Bay at home with their ace Chris Archer on the mound against the Yankees. Simply too good a price here to pass up. New York is a huge public team and are getting a ton of love going into the season after their strong finish last year. The Rays on the other hand are a team that is getting zero respect. Tampa Bay could be a lot better than expected. Archer didn't have the breakout season most expected last year, but this kid has elite stuff and has been throwing the ball extremely well in spring training. Let's also not forget Archer had a 2.65 ERA at home last year and owns a 2.63 ERA and 0.921 WHIP over 13 career starts against the Yankees.
Mike Lundin
Pacers vs. Cavs
Play: Over 214
The Cleveland Cavaliers are coming off a 122-105 win over the 76ers, and I think they're in for another high-scoring encounter when they host the Indiana Pacers Sunday evening.
The Pacers have allowed an an average of 110.7 points through their last six games and but one of their last eight have gone over the total. Indiana is only 11-26 SU on the road this season giving up 107.3 ppg, and over is 8-2-1 in the Cavaliers last 11 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.
Indiana is battling for a playoff spot while the Cavs need to get back on track in order to defend their title. Note that the previous two meetings here in 2017 saw an average of 233 points scored. I think we'll see this game fly over the total by a wide margin.
Jim Feist
76ers vs. Raptors
Play: 76ers +11
Toronto is still without start guard Kyle Lowry, 2-7 ATS in their last 9 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game. The 76ers are young and playing hard, on a 32-13 ATS tun. The 76ers are 22-6 ATS against a team with a winning percentage above .600. And the 76ers are 35-16 ATS in their last 51 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.
Scott Spreitzer
New York at Tampa Bay
Play: New York -10
Tampa Bay comes off a 68-94 season and appears headed for the AL East cellar again after a 10-18 September which obviously means the Rays didn't improve much throughout the season. Chris Archer was 3-10 at home even with a 2.65 ERA and he got off to a horrible start in 2016 with a 1-4 record and 5.01 ERA in April and finished the first half of the season with a 4-12 record. Meanwhile, Masahiro Tanaka was 14-4 with a 3.07 ERA and set career highs in wins, innings, starts, strikeouts and quality starts. The right-hander had a 2.34 road ERA and was 4-0 with a .194 opponent batting average against the Rays and New York has won Tanaka's last eight starts versus Tampa Bay and the Rays are 0-6 in Archer's last six starts vs the Yanks. The line on this game is near even maybe due in part to Archer's four scoreless innings in the World Baseball Classic.
Brandon Powell
Cubs vs. Cardinals
Play: Cubs -118
The Cubs are bringing back most of their key pieces from last year as well as a couple new faces I think could play as key contributors to the defending World Series Champs. I expect the move from Dexter Fowler to the Cards will be more helpful to St. Louis than hurtful to Chicago. Lester will take the Bump for the Cubs. Expect another dominating performance against the Cards. He went 2-0 on 3 starts last year only allowing 2 earned runs over 20 2/3 innings. That's strong work. The cubs have also won 20 of the last 28 with Lester starting against divisional foes. As well as 35 of his last 51 starts, and the Cubs have won 4 of the last 5 in St. Louis. While Carlos Martinez will have another big year, but he has struggled to contain this Cubs lineup over his career yielding a 4.97 ERA over 19 appearances. The Cardinals are 0-4 in Martinezs last 4 starts against the Cubs. When the numbers focus in, the only way to go here is Chicago.
Art Aronson
Giants vs. Diamondbacks
Play: Giants -127
Zack Greinke had a poor spring. Greinke signed a big contract with Arizona last year, but he’d stumble out of the gates for his new team, only to recover decently by about the All Star game. Overall though it was a big disappointment. While Greinke posted a respectable 3.28 ERA in four starts against San Francisco last year, he’s been horrible so far this spring, throwing at 88 to 89 MPH velocity, which is down about 3 or 4 MPH from past years. He posted a pedestrain 4.37 ERA and 7.6 K/9 ratio last season and had five K’s with a 5.06 ERA over 10.2 innings of work this spring.
Madison Bumgarner posted a 2.81 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in sixteen spring innings this year. He was 15-9 with a 2.74 ERA last season and he has to be feeling pretty confiden in this spot at the Giants were 9-1 at Chase Field in 2016. Bumgarner himself is 6-2 with a 2.80 ERA in 15 games at Arizona lifetime.
Jimmy Boyd
Chicago vs. New Orleans
Play: New Orleans -6½
I was on the Bulls yesterday as they won but failed to cover at home against the Hawks. It was a fortunate win for Chicago, as they went on a 15-4 run to close the game and won by 1-point. Keep in mind this was on the heels of their 99-93 win over the Cavs on Wednesday. Now the Bulls are faced with playing on the road on no rest and their 3rd game in the last 4 days overall. I look for Chicago to come out flat. New Orleans on the other hand is hanging onto their playoff hopes by a thread. They know their chances are slim to none of sneaking in, but I don't see them giving up until they are officially eliminated. The Pelicans just needed more time, as they are 8-3 in their last 11 and have won 6 straight at home. Bulls aren't a great road team and are just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 against the Western Conference. Pelicans are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 when playing a team with a losing record and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 against a team that's won fewer than 40% of their road games.
Marc Lawrence
Pacers vs. Cavs
Play: Pacers +9
Edges - Pacers: 8-2 ATS in this series; and 9-6 ATS away following a loss this season, including 5-1 ATS off a double-digit loss… Cavaliers: 6-12-1 ATS last nineteen overall games; and 6-11 ATS versus foe off a double-digit loss this season. With the Pacers in double revenge mode, we recommend a 1* play on Indiana.
Frank Jordan
Charlotte vs. Oklahoma City
Play: Oklahoma City -5.5
Charlotte is just two games out of a playoff spot in the East, but running out of time with just six games left. Charlotte has won their last two games and six of 10, but are still just 13-24 on the road as they head to Oklahoma City which is a tough place to go into and win. Charlotte is 13-16 against the West while Oklahoma City is 17-11 against the East. Oklahoma City is 43-32 and just one loss behind the Clippers for 5th in the West. Oklahoma City has won seven of 10 overall and 27-11 at home. These two teams went at it in January in Charlotte with the Hornets coming up with a monster fourth quarter outscoring the Thunder by 12 to win by 11, despite 33 points, 15 rebounds and 8 assists. Look for Westbrook to will the Thunder to the win as the Thunder dominate at home and Charlotte struggles on the road with Westbrook putting up 35 points, 12 rebounds and 13 assists in a 120-110 victory.
Rob Vincilett
Houston vs. Phoenix
Play: Houston -11.5
Houston has won and covered all 3 in the series with all 3 by at least 14 points over Phoenix. The winning team in the series has covered 13 straight. The Rockets are 3 losses and will likely run it up here against an unrested Phoenix team that played in Portland last night and is playing with several younger players.
Larry Ness
San Francisco vs. Arizona
Pick: San Francisco
Opening on the road is nothing new for the Giants, as this marks the eighth consecutive season in which they've done just that (how about 26 of the team's last 33 openers have come on the road). The Giants visit Chase Field to take on the Arizona D'backs, who are coming off a 69-83 year, the team's third consecutive losing season and its fifth in a row of staying home in October.
The D'backs have a new manager in Torey Lovullo, who was hired away from Boston by new general manager Mike Hazen. Will changes at the top allow Arizona to turn around the team's recent poor starts? The Diamondbacks have not started particularly well this decade, even when they won the NL West in 2011. That team opened 15-22 before tiurning it around and finsihing with 94 wins. However, Arizona lost seven of its first eight and were 5-18 in 2014 when left fielder Mark Trumbo suffered a foot injury in Wrigley Field that sidelined him for several months. That team was within 10 games of .500 only twice thereafter. It finished 64-98. Arizona opened 10-14 in 2015 and never broke .500 over the final five months while finishing 79-83. It started 3-7 and 13-18 last year, before the pitching issues became acute. I'm not sure 2017 will offer something different. The Diamondbacks' first two weeks include seven games against the Giants (18 games better than Arizona last year), four vs the Los Angeles Dodgers (22 games better and NL West champs) and three against defending American League champion Cleveland.
While Arizona hasn't been in the postseaon since 2011, the Giants have won World Series titles in 2010, 2012 and 1014 this decade. They were on the verge of taking the Cubs to a deciding Game 5 in the NLDS last season but the bullpen imploded late in Game 4. The Giants had 32 blown saves last season but signed free agent closer Mark Melancon in hopes of settling a bullpen that doesn't need to be great (but needs to be good) behind the Giants' first-rate starting rotation.
Speaking of pitching, this is a terrific opening day showdown. Madison Bumgarner was 15-9, with a 2.74 ERA in 2016, setting career highs in innings (226.2) and strikeouts (251. He is one of only two pitchers to make at least 30 starts and pitch 200 innings in each of the past six regular seasons and no one forgets his postseason exploits, especially his memorable 2014 World Series performance against the Royals. Zach Greinke signed a six-year, $206 million contract with Arizona prior to last season but oblique and shoulder injuries.limited him to 26 starts, going 13-7 with a 4.37 ERA (team was 16-10 in his starts). Greinke's had excellent success vs. the Giants in his career, posting a 9-2 (2.49) record with his teams going 11-3. Bumgarner is 9-7 with a 2.53 ERA in 26 appearances vs. Arizona, including 25 starts (Giants are 15-10).
If the Giants must open a season on the road (again!), Chase Field is as good a place as any. The Giants were 13-6 against the D'backs in 2016, winning nine of 10 games in the desert! Bumgarner had a solid spring (2.52 ERA in seven starts) and is 6-2 with a 2.80 ERA in 15 appearances (14 starts) at Chase Field. He is making his fourth consecutive Opening Day start, going 2-0 with a 2.25 ERA in his previous three.
Bruce Marshall
Yankees -110
Not bad price to go with the Yankees, who might be a bit undervalued. Especially on Sunday at the Trop, where starter Masahiro Tanaka faces a Rays team he is 6-0 against all-time in eight starts and was 4-0 with a 2.88 ERA against last season. A year ago, that was twice as many wins as Tanaka mustered against any other opponent! Meanwhile, Tampa Bay starter Chris Archer's 9-19 mark was deceiving last season, but he was 0-3 with a subpar 3.86 ERA vs. the Yankees in 2016.
Wunderdog
Dallas @ Milwaukee
Pick: Dallas +6.5
Dallas is a dog, but is one of the best defensive teams in the NBA at fourth in points allowed. The Mavericks are 23-8 ATS following a defeat, plus 15-7 ATS playing on one day of rest. Dallas is also 21-10 ATS when their opponent scores 100+ points in their previous game. Milwaukee is on a 6-1 SU run, but four wins were by three points, including Friday's overtime victory over Detroit. Dallas won the first meeting in a defensive duel, 86-75, and the Bucks are 6-13 ATS at home against a team with a road winning percentage of less than .400.