DAVE COKIN
NEW YORK AT KANSAS CITY
PLAY: NEW YORK F5 -115
Note that I almost always list starting pitchers for my baseball wagers. Assume that’s always the case if you see them listed here for the daily free plays. And for those a little shaky on the terminology, F5 refers to a first five inning play rather than full game, as is the case with this selection.
The Mets will be a popular side tonight as they open against the team that topped them in the 2015 World Series. That’s definitely in the mix as far as the reasoning for this play goes.
Make no mistake, the Mets are well aware that even if they were to win tonight’s game by 10 runs, it wouldn’t begin to make up for the disappointment of what took place last October. But some team members have made no secret of the fact they’re approaching this opener with a bit of a chip on their collective shoulders. Plus, there have been comments about not looking forward to the prospect of having to be on the scene as the world champion Royals enjoy their pre-game ceremonies.
But there’s more to making this play than a possible motivational edge. I absolutely feel this could be a rerun of what we saw last autumn.
If you recall, the Mets had the lead in each World Series game at some point. In fact, they were F5 winners in four of the five games, and the only loser was one where they gave up a four-spot in the bottom of the fifth inning. That scenario could well play out again tonight.
Matt Harvey will be stoked for this game. You can be sure he hasn’t forgotten about the one that got away to end last season. Harvey is over his bladder ailment (that did not sound like fun) and is all systems go tonight. I have no problem with Edinson Volquez, who was a nice contributor for the Royals in 2015. But head to head, I give a definite edge to Harvey.
I do not give the Mets a late-game edge, however. We all know about the sheer dominance of the Kansas City bullpen. I really don’t want to be needing to hold a small lead, tied or trailing after six against this outfit. Until something changes, I have no intention of playing full game against the Royals.
I’m also not completely sold on the Mets bullpen. Jeurys Familia was terrific last season. But, while it really wasn’t even close to being all his fault, he blew three straight save opportunities in the World Series and I wonder about whether that impacts him moving forward. It’s also worth mentioning that Familia had a bad spring. He finally flashed dominance in his final exhibition outing. But for much of the spring, Familia’s command has been shaky, most especially with his sinker. It seemed to be mostly mechanics, as Familia was flying open and that caused the ball to run rather than sink, which is a bad thing for a guy who needs to be down in the zone. My guess is that it’s just a temporary glitch, but at least for right now, a potential issue worth monitoring.
Bottom line here is I like the idea of backing the Mets, particularly with Harvey on the hill, in a season opener they really want. But I don’t have faith I can beat the Royals late, so I’d rather try to do so early. First five play on the Mets as small road chalk is the choice.
Marc Lawrence
Dallas vs. Minnesota
Play:Minnesota +2½
Edges - Timberwolves: 8-5 ATS with revenge from a loss of 17 or more points in this series, including 3-0 ATS the last three. Mavericks: 5-8 SUATS off a SU underdog win this season, including 1-4 ATS when off BB wins. With the Wolves 24-12 ATS with revenge versus greater than .444 opposition this season, we recommend a 1* play on Minnesota.
Jim Feist
Celtics vs. Lakers
Play: Over 209½
Boston is a young team with great depth that likes to run, No. 5 in the NBA in scoring. The Over is 17-7 in Celtics last 24 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. The Celtics come in on a high note after a thrilling 109-106 victory at Golden State on Friday night to snap an NBA-record 54-game winning streak in the regular season at Oracle Arena. The over is 22-10 in the Celtics last 32 games vs. a team with a winning percentage below .400. They face a bad LA Laker defense, one ranked No. 27 in the NBA in points allowed. The Over is 28-10-2 in the Lakers last 40 games playing on 3 or more days rest. And when these rivals meet the over is 6-2, including 4-1 at the Staples Center.
Martin Griffiths
Everton vs. Manchester United
Play: Everton PK½-120
Tricky game this for both teams, especially for United who know that they must win this game to maintain their hopes of Champions League qualification, but in Everton they are up against a team that on their day can cause most teams problems.
Therein lies the issue though, will today be Evertons day, they have immense talent in their squad but time and time again this season they have been rank poor, they are better than what they have been showing, but have shown what they are capable of doing in glimpses only this season.
United at home are of course the favourites, but this United outfit is nowhere the same team that once frightened almost every team in Europe, in fact this United team are very beatable.
Playing at Old Trafford against Man Utd tends to get most teams fired up and that must be the hope for Everton fans today, they saw their team capitulate against Arsenal and will not want to see a repeat of that performance and neither will their manager Roberto Martinez, one must hope that he has let his players know that they cannot repeat that against United today.
United could obviously come out and dominate against Everton, they are at home after all and motivated, but lets be honest, when have they dominated any team this season, not often that is for sure.
If Everton get themselves up for this game and they should, then expect them to give United a real fight and that is what I am expecting to see, therefore I am taking Everton on the spreads
Joe D'Amico
St Louis Cardinals vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Play: St Louis Cardinals +115
Adam Wainwright makes his first start since last April, but did pitch 6 times in relief, including 3 post-season appearances. The crafty veteran allowed 8 runs, fanning 11, in 15 IP in Spring training and makes his 4th straight opening day start for the perennial NL Central Champs. The Cardinals did lose SS, Jhonny Peralta for a few months but still own a very experienced and dangerous lineup. Pittsburgh's problem is that they share the Division with St. Louis and Chicago, which hasn't fared well for them. They send Francisco Liriano to the mound. The LH was 12-7 last year and gave up 9 runs in 13 1/3 IP this Spring. The Cards are 7-2 in Wainwrights L9 starts vs. the Pirates, 42-20 their L62 in Game 1 of a series, and 5-1 in Wainwrights L6 road starts.
Rob Vinciletti
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Play: Tampa Bay Rays +110
The Rays start their season off at home today against the A.L. East Champs Toronto Blue Jays. Tampa has won 6 of 9 at home vs Toronto has their ace in C. Archer on the mound. Archer has won his last 3 home starts v Toronto and has allowed just 2 earned runs in 20 innings in those starts. Archer has allowed just 3 runs in 18 innings in April home starts. This will be the first road start in April. In a closely lined game we will back the home team with the pitching advantage in this one. We will back the Rays in their home opener.
Jesse Schule
Toronto vs. Tampa Bay
Pick: Tampa Bay
The Toronto Blue Jays will play in Tampa on Opening Day, and the defending AL East champs are coming off an impressive Spring Training in the Grapefruit League. Toronto is a slight road favorite in this matchup, but history favors Chris Archer and the Rays.
Archer has had no shortage of success against the Blue Jays, even more so than his record of 5-3 with a 3.26 ERA over the last three seasons would indicate. What's most impressive of Archer's numbers in previous starts against Toronto, is how he's silenced the Blue Jay's big bats. Jose Bautista is batting a minuscule .152 with only one home run and four strikeouts in 33 career at bats, while Edwin Encarnacion is even worse, hitting .139 in 36 career at bats. Archer looked sharp in nine innings this spring, striking out seven while holding opposing batters to a .194 average.
The Jays will send 24 year old Marcus Stroman to the mound on Opening Day, and that's a lot of pressure to put on a young pitcher. Stroman has looked very sharp in Spring Training, but he's been far better at home than he has been on the road in his brief career. He has just 30 starts under his belt in two seasons, and his ERA of 4.97 on the road is more than double what it is at Rogers Center. He's surrendered eight runs on 17 hits going 1-1 with a 5.73 ERA in two career starts versus Tampa. Evan Longoria was 3-for-5 with a home run in those two games.
Will Rogers
Toronto vs. Tampa Bay
Pick: Under
The Toronto Blue Jays come into the 2016 season with lofty expectations. They are the defending AL East champions, and they had a fantastic Spring Training. The Jays will be playing at Tampa on Opening Day, and we could see a pitcher's duel with each team sending their respective ace to the mound. The total is pretty low for an American League game, but I still think the value lies with a play on the under.
Here are my keys to the game:
1. Previous History - The Jays are 0-4 in their last four road games versus a right-handed starter. They've also had plenty of troubles with Chris Archer, who was 3-2 with a 3.11 ERA versus Toronto last year. His career numbers against the Jays are even better, and he also has favorable day/night splits.
2. Batter vs. Pitcher - The Jays top two run producers have really struggled against Archer. Jose Bautista is batting .152 with four strikeouts in 33 career at bats. Edwin Encarnacion is hitting .139 over 36 at bats, while Josh Donaldson is 2-for-17 lifetime versus Archer.
3. X-Factor - The under is 4-1-2 in Blue Jays last 7 during game 1 of a series.
Bruce Marshall
Memphis at Orlando
Pick: Orlando
Memphis trying to get healthy while also holding on to the 5th seed in the West playoffs and a more-favorable first-round matchup vs. the Clips (as opposed to dropping to the sixth or lower seed and getting OKC or Spurs). Z-Bo has returned to active duty, but Griz still missing key G Mike Conley (Achilles; hopefully to return before end of regular season), and Memphis had all hands on deck (including now-absent Marc Gasol) when it was forced into OT at FedEx Forum by Orlando on Jan. 25. With playoff pressure now removed, Magic suddenly looking a bit dangerous, blowing out Bulls & Nets in last two home games at Amway Center. And recently-hurting Ersan Ilyasova and Nikola Vucevic scheduled to have returned by now. Their recent absences, however, have opened up more time for former St. Bona star Andrew Nicholson, who took advantage with 19 ppg over recent three-game stretch. Magic displaying some real offensive efficiency in recent games after dropping into the league's bottom quartile in that department since the All-Star break. If recent Orlando home form holds, Griz could be in trouble.
Scott Spreitzer
Toronto at Tampa Bay
Pick: Tampa Bay
Toronto will send Marcus Stroman to the mound, while the Rays will counter with Chris Archer, and we expect the Rays' right-hander to be the difference maker in this one. Edwin Encarnacion (oblique) is expected to DH for the Jays on Sunday, and we all know the potential of the Toronto offense. But Encarnacion, Jose Bautista, and Josh Donaldson, have all had their problems attempting to solve Archer. In fact, Archer has held the upper hand, holding Encarnacion to a .139 batting average in 36 at-bats. He's held Bautista to a .152 batting average in 33 at-bats, and Josh Donaldson has a .118 average in 17 at-bats. Archer owns a 1.14 WHIP in 15 starts against the Blue Jays, and finished last season with a .213 BAA at Tropicana Field. The Rays added a little offense in the off-season, including Corey Dickerson, Brad Miller, and Logan Morrison, and I expect the bats to provide enough support to give Archer a lead. No Jake McGee out of the pen anymore, he's now earning a paycheck with the Rockies, and Brad Boxberger is banged-up to start the season, but Tampa mgmt was ready for this to start the season and they have been known to make the most out of what they have in the pen.
Larry Ness
Memphis Grizzlies at Orlando Magic
Prediction: Orlando Magic
The 2015-16 season began well for Orlando, as the Magic closed 2015 at 19-13. However, the Magic are a woeful 13-31 (.295) sine Jan 1 and well out of the East’s playoff picture. Orlando will host Memphis tonight, a team bruised and battered like no other club in NBA history. The Grizzlies have lost Marc Gasol (16.6-7.0) for the year and Mike Conley (15.3-6.1 APG) may or may not get back on the court. Plus, numerous others have missed time over the course of the season . The Grizzlies have tied the NBA record by using 27 players this season and can pass the 1996-97 Dallas Mavericks if recently acquired G Bryce Cotton gets in on Sunday.
The Grizzlies limp into Orlando having lost FIVE in a row and while Memphis is currently the West’s No. 5 seed (leads Portland by just a half-game), even a four-game lead over ninth-place Houston doesn't feel safe these days. "We just have to stay the course and continue to just fight," veteran swingman Vince Carter said. "No one said it's going to be easy, and I think everyone understands that." Meanwhile, with no playoff chances any longer, Orlando has averaged 118.5 PPG over its last four, including Tuesday's 139-105 home rout of Brooklyn that marked the team's highest-scoring effort since 2009. "The guys have played well the last few games, but it's just a (four)-game stretch and a small sample size," head coach Scott Skiles told the team's official website. "We'll have to see if we can keep it going and end the season on a high note playing good basketball."
The good news for Memphis in this one is that the Grizzlies have won NINE in a row in this series but the bad news is, the current Memphis roster is not a playoff-caliber team (Grizz have lost NINE of their last 11). I’ll take Orlando, which can win three in a row at home for the first time since November.
Chase Diamond
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Play: Tampa Bay Rays -105
This game features the Blue Jays at the Rays. While I think Toronto will be a major contender this year today I feel the Rays have the better pitcher at a great price. Chris Archer at times last season was dominant with a 12-13 3.23 ERA he was very solid. Stroman who starts for the Jays is a great young arm but at 24 years old starting opening day might be a little daunting. I expect the Rays to be fully motivated to give there home crowd a win on opening day. Money moves have suggested the sharps are firmly on the Rays here. Only 38% of the public is backing the Rays yet this line is moving and moving fast.
Mike Lundin
Blazers vs. Warriors
Play: Under 224
The under has been money in games involving Golden State Warriors lately as each of their last four have failed to reach the set total. The under is 5-1 in the Portland Trail Blazers last six overall and this total looks pretty high.
Golden State will try to bounce back from its first home-loss for more than a year as they suffered a 109-106 setback against the Celtics Friday. Under is 5-0 in the Warriors last five after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game and 5-0 in their last five games following a ATS loss.
Portland is riding a four-game winning streak and defeated the Heat 110-93 yesterday. Under is 5-2 in the Trail Blazers last seven games playing on back-to-back nights.
Each of the last five meetings in this series have gone over the total, but I think that's a trend that will not hold true tonight.
Teddy Davis
Chicago at Milwaukee
Play: Milwaukee -2½
I believe last night's loss @ home to the Pistons for the Bulls will do them in here tonight. While they still have an outside shot of making the playoffs I just think that game took the wind out of their sails. Now they are on their 2nd of a back to back and the Bucks would love nothing more than to be the team that knocks them out of the playoffs for good. Bulls are just 4-10 ATS L14 games playing on 0 days rest.
Ricky Tran
Blazers vs. Warriors
Play: Blazers +12
The Warriors had a 54 home-game winning streak come to an end in a 109-106 loss to the Celtics Friday. You could sense it was coming as they've been far from impressive in recent games and 1-4 ATS in their last 5. The Trail Blazers are riding a four-game winning streak with wins over 76ers, Kings, Celtics and Heat. They played Miami last night but are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games playing on 0 days rest. Portland has already stunned Golden State once this season when it handed Golden State its most lopsided loss of the season 137-105 on Feb. 19, and it looks like the Blazers are catching too many points tonight.