Jimmy Boyd
Celtics vs. Lakers
Play: Lakers +9½
I like the value we are getting here with the Lakers basically a double-digit home dog against the Celtics. Boston comes into this game off a shocking 109-106 win at Golden State as a 11.5-point dog, which snapped the Warriors record 54-game home winning streak. I know that was on Friday and they have had a day to regroup, but it's human nature to suffer a letdown after a win of that magnitude.
The Lakers were able to snap a 4-game skid with an impressive win of their own, beating the Heat 102-100 as a 10.5-point home dog last Wednesday. LA comes into this game off a much-needed 3-day break, which also adds to value here with this line. It's also worth noting that the Lakers won 112-104 at Boston earlier this season, so keeping it within 10 at home shouldn't be a problem.
Celtics are just 2-5 ATS in their last 7 off a SU win and even with the outright win at Golden State are just 2-7 ATS L9 on the road and 1-5 ATS L6 versus the Western Conference. It's also worth noting the Lakers have covered 5 of the last 6 in the series.
Jack Jones
Pacers vs. Knicks
Play: Pacers -4
The Indiana Pacers are showing solid value as only 4-point road favorites over the lowly New York Knicks today. The Pacers are currently the 8th seed in the East with a two-game lead on the Bulls. After missing the playoffs by one game last year, this team is not going to let that happen again.
The Knicks are without one of their best players in Kristaps Porzingis, and it appears they just want the season to be over. They have lost three of their last four games coming in.
To say this has been a one-sided series would be a massive understatement. The Pacers are 5-0 in their last five meetings with the Knicks, and 8-1 over the past nine meetings as well.
New York is 5-16 ATS as a home underdog of 3.5 to 6 points over the last three seasons. The Knicks are 8-21 ATS as home dog of 6 points or less over the last two years. The Knicks are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 home games. The favorite is 10-3 ATS in the last 13 meetings.
Brandon Lee
Mets vs. Royals
Play: Mets -114
My money is on New York in the tonight's World Series rematch to kick off the 2016 season. The Mets will be out for redemption and I like their chances of getting it behind their ace Matt Harvey, who pitched extremely well against the Royals in both starts in the World Series. I don't have the same trust in KC's starter Edinson Volquez. Over the last 2 seasons the Mets have gone 30-13 as a road favorite of -110 or more. They also closed out 2015 going 16-5 over their last 21 series openers and 18-8 in their last 26 road games against a right-handed starter.
John Ryan
Thunder vs. Rockets
Play: Over 221
Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 40-12 mark good for 77% winners since 2010. Play ‘over’ with home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (HOUSTON) off a close home loss by 3 points or less, with a losing record. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. OKC is 20-7 OVER (+12.3 Units) in road games versus up-tempo teams averaging 83 or more shots/game 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons; 15-5 OVER (+9.5 Units) in road games after having won 8 or more of their last 10 games over the last 2 seasons; Houston is a solid 20-8 OVER (+11.2 Units) off a home loss over the last 2 seasons.
Fundamental Discussion Points OKC is the second best offensive team in the NBA. They rank 2nd in scoring offense at 110 PPG, third in effective FG%, 2nd in 2-point shot percentage, 2nd in shooting efficiency quotient, and 4th in free throws made per game. OKC truly has no dominant defense and prefers to play the games looking to outscore their opponents. This strategy will work well against the Rockets, who also like to play fast. They rank 4th in scoring, third in fast break points per game, and 8th in points from the paint per game.
Dave Price
Los Angeles Lakers +9
The Boston Celtics are in the ultimate letdown spot here. They beat the Warriors outright and handed the defending champs their first home loss of the season Friday night. Now it's time to fade them as they are unlikely to show up against the Los Angeles Lakers tonight. The Lakers are coming off an upset 102-100 (OT) win over the Heat of their own to prove that they have not quit.
Gabriel DuPont
Free play for tonight, as I look to improve on my 36-24 run with complimentary plays: N.Y. Mets at KANSAS CITY (+110)
The STORYLINE in this game today - Opening night on Sunday Night Baseball, and it's a rematch of the World Series. I like the defending World Series champion Kansas City Royals to knock off the New York Mets tonight, and I want you listing both scheduled starters: Matt Harvey and Edinson Volquez.
The X-FACTOR in making this choice on this game - With the Royals looking to raise the championship banner, and Volquez being thrust into the spotlight, expect to see his best stuff tonight at Kauffman. He's worked on his arsenal as a whole, and is said to have strengthened his shoulder for better velocity. He has a herky-jerky motion in his delivery, and shows good late life with his 91-95 mile per hour fastball. He pitches inside effectively with it, and will have confidence in attacking the Mets today.
BOTTOM LINE is - Though Harvey is the opening day guy, there was questions about his health, and there is no telling the mindset he and manager Terry Collins will have when he starts getting hit tonight. He could be ripe for a quick hook tonight. Royals win this one.
1* KANSAS CITY
Scott Delaney
Sometimes, revenge can be sweet. Other times, you tend to overthink things and try too hard. There is such a thing. And tonight, while the Royals are raising the championship banner, the Mets will be a bit overzealous in looking for revenge against Kansas City, from the 2015 World Series.
I won't list the pitchers in this one, as I think we're going to have to play this one based on the buzz at Kaufmann Stadium.
Though the Mets are nearly the same team that won 90 games last season, and rolled into the World Series, there are signifcant changes. Second baseman Daniel Murphy is gone, and will be replaced by Pittsburgh import Neil Walker. There is also a new shortstop, in Asdrubal Cabrera.
The middle infield duo means a new double-play combination, and now that it is thrust into the spotlight, on a celebratory night like this, I have to wonder how well the Mets will do once the Royals put runners on the basepaths.
Let's take a shot with the home underdog.
1* ROYALS
Brad Wilton
Let's take the points with the Hornets in their big Sunday showdown with the Cavaliers.
Charlotte is eager to prove that the #1 seed Cleveland Cavaliers will not have a cakewalk to the NBA Finals this postseason, and the Hornets have split the last pair of meetings with the Cavs - both coming in in the month of February - the host winning and covering in both.
The Cavaliers are just 2-4 against the spread their last 6 at Quicken Loans, while the Hornets have won 5 of their last 6 on the road straight up.
Go with Charlotte to show Cleveland that they are for real this afternoon.
Maybe it won't be an outright win by the visitors, but plus the points they stay inside of the number.
2* CHARLOTTE
Jeff Benton
Your Sunday freebie is the Warriors over the Blazers.
The Warriors were stunned Friday night at home, as Boston handed them their first home loss of the season, and their first home loss in almost 2 years to be exact at Oracle Arena!
Expect the 68-8 Dubs to come out strong against Portland in this spot tonight.
The Blazers were on court last night at home against Miami, so expect Portland to be a little tired come the later stages of this game.
Golden State did get blown out by Portland earlier this year, 137-105 just after the All-Star break, but Golden State did indeed gain revenge in their March 11th home meeting with the Blazers, winning by 16 as the -13 1/2 point favorite.
The Warriors are now 7-2 both straight up and against the spread the last 9 series meetings with the Trail Blazers.
At 68-8, Golden State doesn't have much leeway over their final 6 games to catch the Bulls for best regular season record, especially with a pair still left against San Antonio. This game see the Warriors bring their best effort against the fatigued Blazers.
Lay it.
4* GOLDEN STATE
Dave Essler
Tampa Bay-105
This was a BIT tough - we know what Toronto CAN do, so is it better to take Archer at home at this price, or Stroman on the road at this price. Well, when in doubt, the home team. Stroman hasn't done a ton of pitching the last year-plus, so we just don't know how long he can/will go. We do pretty much know that Archer at home is a beast and will generally give you a quality start - which is all we can ask for. I do like Osuna, the Jays closer, but if it comes to him being in the ninth we've probably already lost. I don't like the Jays middle relief at all. Picking up Logan Morrison and Corey Dickerson should as some punch the Rays offense - and I do like Souza with a year under his belt. With the exception of Donaldson at third, the Jays defense really isn't built for a big stadium with turf, IMHO. We know Bautista has an arm, but he's got to get to the ball first. Saunders - if he starts in LF - hasn't been an every day player for a while, and his defense is marginal at best. Tulo at short - doesn't have the range he once did, and certainly not on turf. Without Reyes the Jays don't have the speed at the top of their order they did - Casali has some pop (and the ability to miss the ball completely with the bat). Bautusta and Edwin both hit well under .200 against Archer (although Edwin does have three jacks). Most of the Rays have seen Stroman once or twice and several have decent hit, but of course in VERY small samples - but I'd rather have that than ZERO. Conger MAY catch simply because he's seen Stroman and gone deep off of him - normally, during the year, we wait for lineups.
Harry Bondi
DALLAS -2.5 over Minnesota
After a brutal stretch in which they lost 10 out of 12 games, the Mavs have seemingly turned things around as of late, winning three in a row and remaining in playoff contention, which gives them a large dose of motivation here today. We have picked our spots and made some money going with the T-Wolves in the second half of the season, but overall this is still a team that's a money-eating 13-24 ATS at home this season and fading fast, losers of four straight ATS. Dallas has dominated this series, covering 24 of the last 35 games, including a 128-101 beat down in the last meeting. Lay the points with the more talented and more motivated team.
Bob Balfe
Thunder -3
The Thunder are starting to take off while the Rockets just can’t get past .500 basketball. Houston is have a bad year with the talent that is on the roster. Oklahoma City is starting get play better on defense and are gearing up for a deep playoff run. I can’t see Houston being able to compete for 48 minutes in this one.
Wunderdog
New Orleans @ Brooklyn
Pick: New Orleans +2.5
New Orleans is playing hard for coach Alvin Gentry down the stretch, on a 2-1 SU/3-0 ATS run, winning twice as a dog. They topped the Knicks, 99-91, as a +5.5 dog, then the last game beat Denver, 101-95, as +7 dog behind newcomers like Tim Frazier, Jordan Hamilton, and James Ennis. The three have played a combined 15 games with the Pelicans and totaled 42 points in Thursday's home win over the Nuggets. Hamilton, Frazier, and Ennis combined to go 8-of-15 from 3-point range in Thursday’s win with each playing at least 29 minutes. Pelicans PG Toney Douglas has scored in double figures in each of the last 10 games and added 10 assists on Thursday. They face a Brooklyn squad that can't do anything well, #27 in the NBA in scoring, #23 in points allowed, and dead last in field goal shooting defense allowing 47.6%. Brooklyn suffered its fourth straight loss with a 105-91 setback at the New York Knicks the last game. When these teams clash, the underdog is 9-4 ATS in the last 13 meetings.
Jeffrey James
Golden State -12
Think the Warriors may be a bit miffed here??? They lost at home in their last game on Friday night to end their home winning streak and hurt their chances of beating the Bulls best regular season ever. That loss will have them very ready for a big performance here. Portland will be playing on the 2nd day of a back to back and their 3rd game in 4 nights. Golden State has covered 19 of their last 26 against the Blazers and they have a motivational edge and a scheduling edge. Have to love the Warriors for a huge win and cover here.
Anthony Michael
New York Mets -120
Revenge is not a big angle in baseball but it will be in play here since this is a rematch from the World Series from last year. Kansas City will be in celebration mode with their opener at home after last year's Series win while the Mets will be fired up for some revenge behind their stud starter Harvey.