Micah Roberts
Mets at Royals
Play: Royals
There is some bad blood leftover from last years World Series and the Royals haven't forgot. They'll get their chance against Matt Harvey, who looked a bit shaky his last two spring starts. He threw 16 pitches in a game Wednesday and gave up three runs off two hits in two innings or work. That came six days after give up six runs in three innings. When I watched that game, and how his fastball wasn't the Dark night fastball anymore, I knew I would be betting this game. Volquez looked good in his final spring start Monday.
SPORTS WAGERS
St. Louis +115 over PITTSBURGH
We’re not going to go into depth about why we don’t trust the Pirates to even come close to last year’s 98-64 record but let us just say that the Pirates lost much more than they gained in the off-season. Second baseman Neil Walker was traded to the New York Mets for left-hander Jon Niese. First baseman Pedro Alvarez was not tendered a contract. Right-hander A.J. Burnett and third baseman Aramis Ramirez retired. Left-hander J.A. Happ left for the Toronto Blue Jays in free agency and right-hander Charlie Morton was traded to the Philadelphia Phillies. The only notable acquisition for the Pirates (if you want to call it that) was John Jaso, who is the opening day first baseman. And so the outcasts, misfits and reclamation projects that were in camp this spring included a pitcher who was not good enough to make his team’s playoff rotation last October (Jonathon Niese); a 38-year-old who has a 4.63 ERA since 2013 (Ryan Vogelsong); a former All-Star closer who posted a 6.38 ERA last year (Neftali Feliz); a 29-year-old with hard stuff but no control (Juan Nicasio); and a former ace setup man who hasn’t thrown a pitch in the majors in 2 1/2 years (Daniel Bard). David Freese is the opening day third baseman. This market thinks the Pirates are a decent team and we are in complete disagreement with that.
Meanwhile, the Cardinals are loaded with a GREAT mix of young talent (Tommy Phan, Stephen Piscotti, Randal Grichuk, Kolten Wong) and vets. Adam Wainwright rallied from an April Achilles injury to pitch out of the pen late in the second half but it was too small a sample size to matter (8 IP including post-season). Pre-injury sample not instructive, either. Wainwright’s sinking K-rate is the only major concern in his otherwise solid skill set. Well, outside of the health grade but it’s enough to remove his "ace" status and provide us with a decent price on him here. Wainwright has elite control and we trust him when he says that he feels great.
From 2009 to 2012, Francisco Liriano had three season of 5+ ERA and now has three straight of 3.38 or better. Liriano has some of the filthiest stuff in the game but the weather is cold and that may not bode well for a pitcher with Liriano’s credentials. Liriano has been ultra-consistent over the past three years and his skills shined brightest last year with a peaking strikeout rate that came with full swing and miss support. However, Liriano’s subpar first-pitch strike rate and occasionally shaky control (4.9 BB/9 in two of six months last year) is a concern in cold weather. The Cardinals are a very patient team that will make Liriano throw strikes. In other words, this cold weather is not well suited for Liriano. The Cardinals have the better bats, the better pen and the better players. Oh, and they’re taking back a tag too.
Wunderdog
St. Louis @ Pittsburgh
Pick: Pittsburgh -122
St. Louis opens the season with a 34-year old pitcher who threw just 28 innings last season because of an injury. Adam Wainwright is back, but didn't dazzle in the spring, allowing 19 hits and 8 runs in 15 innings. They face a Pittsburgh Pirates team that won 98 games last year, blowing past its Vegas projection of 85.5. This offense is strong behind Andrew McCutchen, finishing last year #11 in runs scored and #9 in on-base percentage and batting average. Lefty Francisco Liriano is off a strong season (12-7, 3.38 ERA), and the Pirates are 19-7 in his last 26 starts. It will mark Liriano's third straight Opening Day start. The last three years he is 14-10 at home, as well as winning record against St. Louis with 2.58 ERA in 39+ innings. The Cardinals have hit just .192 off him over those three years. The Pirates are also 46-22 against a right-handed starter, as well as 65-28 at home vs. a right-handed starter.
SPORTS WAGERS
Dallas +135 over ANAHEIM
OT included. The Ducks are a team we have rarely faded the past three months because they have been so hot but their play has slipped recently, as they deal with injuries and the toll of a major push that lasted three months. The Ducks are coming off a 3-2 home loss to Vancouver. Over their past seven games, Anaheim has played Winnipeg, Montreal, Toronto, Ottawa, Edmonton, Calgary and Vancouver. None of those teams are going to the playoffs and a team could develop a lot of bad habits playing that group of seven in succession. Even when the Ducks defeated the Flames 8-3 last week, they mustered just 27 shots on net so that final score is very misleading. The Ducks take a huge step up in class here after facing that aforementioned group and they haven’t seen a team of this caliber in weeks.
When the Stars are at their best, they terrorize opponents with their speed, their forecheck and a murderer's row of scorers. The Stars have sustained their share of significant injuries lately, fewer than some teams, more than most, but they've managed to cover for the losses of Tyler Seguin, Kris Russell, Patrick Sharp and others thanks to a deep and fluid roster that's been expertly managed by coach Lindy Ruff. Ruff has seen the elevated play of several players like Stephen Johns, Brett Ritchie, Mattias Janmark and others. Even Seguin's injury did not require a call up because the Stars are so deep at the wing position. Dallas has scored four goals or more in four of its last six games. They have also won seven of its last eight games while outscoring the opposition over that span, 30-15. Yesterday afternoon, the Stars rallied to beat the Kings in Los Angeles and they deserved to win. Dallas outshot the Kings 36-28. It’s not often we get such a quality outfit at a price like this when said outfit is in such good form. Big overlay here.