Free Picks for Sunday, April 30th, 2017 from some of the nations best and worst handicappers
Mike Lundin
Twins vs. Royals
Play: Over 8
Saturday's matchup between the Kansas City Royals and the Minnesota Twins got rained out, and we'll see the scheduled starting pitchers for that contest take the mound Sunday afternoon instead.
The Twins' Phil Hughes (3-1 , 4.71 ERA) held Texas to a pair of runs on six hits through six innings of a 3-2 win his last time out. Over is 9-3-1 in Hughes' last 13 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance and he's posted a 4.91 ERA in 13 starts and one relief appearance against the Royals who hand the ball to Jason Hammel (0-2, 5.30 ERA). Hammel was charged with three runs, four hits and three walks in three innings of a 5-2 loss at Texas on Sunday, and he's posted a 3.98 ERA in eight career games (seven starts) versus Minnesota.
The Royals have lost eight straight games and they're dead last in MLB with only 58 runs scored, but I think they'll do enough at the plate to help Minnesota push this game over the total.
Jim Feist
Blues vs. Predators
Play: Under 5
A pair of outstanding goalies and defenses square off, off in Game #3 with the series even. St. Louis is 10-4-1 under the total on the road and 16-5-5 under playing on one day of rest. Nashville has a strong defense and 3-0-2 under the total at home. And the Under is 52-23-9 in the last 84 meetings, 34-11-6 under at Nashville.
Scott Spreitzer
Braves vs. Brewers
Play: Braves -103
Atlanta started the season with a 6-12 record, but its offense has come alive and scored 36 runs the last four games and the Braves won all of them, including Saturday's 11-3 victory over the Brewers when they pounded out 20 hits. Mike Foltynewicz comes off two quality starts while allowing three runs in 14 innings. Foltynewicz has a 1.93 ERA in his career against Milwaukee in three appearances. Also, Atlanta has found a way to cool off Eric Thames, who is 1-for-7 in the first two games of the series after he crushed the Reds. Matt Garza made his first start since coming off the disabled list and allowed four runs (one earned) and four hits in four innings in a game against the Reds when the Brewers made three errors behind him. Milwaukee is just 6-10 at home this season.
Doc's Sports
Wizards vs. Celtics
Play: Celtics -4
We think Boston will win Game 1 here at home. We think this will be a real good series but Boston is rolling with a lot of momentum after winning four straight against Chicago after going down 0-2 in the series. But they are playing really well now and they dominated Chicago last time out to put an exclamation mark on that series. The Wizards did not play well overall on the road in their series against Atlanta and we think they will struggle here in Game 1 now that the stakes are higher. Not only is Boston the better all-around team but they have covered in six of the last eight games in this series. We thought this opening line would be larger and we think the home team has nice value here Sunday early afternoon.
Andre Ramirez
Clippers -3½
For the Clippers to record the victory in Game 7, they will need to continue their excellent play on the offensive end. They overcame a slow start in Game 6 to shoot at a high 49 percent clip from the field. Jordan has been superb in this series, recording double-doubles in each of the past six games. It’s Paul, however, who will be the key in this winner-take-all contest. The Point God is the Clips’ chief facilitator, averaging 27.3 points and 10.0 assists in the series against the Jazz.
Marc Lawrence
Cincinnati at St Louis
Play: St Louis -169
Edges - Cardinals: Leake 1.32 ERA with 0.88 WHIP this season… Reds: Arroyo 0-8 last eight team starts against St. Louis, and 0-5 last five starts in this park; and 1-5 last six tam starts during April. With Leake anxious to pick up his first win against his former team, we recommend a 1* play on Kansas City.
Sean Murphy
Jazz vs. Clippers
Play: Under 191
The lone Game 7 of the opening round of the NBA Playoffs will feature the Jazz and Clippers on Sunday afternoon, and I'm expecting a relatively low-scoring affair.
I'm just not sure where the offense comes from in this one. The Clippers have had to grind things out for the most part since losing Blake Griffin to a season-ending injury earlier in this series. I don't see them suddenly busting out on Sunday, even as they return home where they've gone 30-14 SU this season.
Keep in mind, these two teams were involved in games' totaling 163 and 160 points during the regular season so the potential is there for a slugfest.
The Jazz aren't well-suited to winning games in a track meet, particularly on the road. They average under 100 points per contest on the road while limiting the opposition to under 99 points per game. While the Clippers do average just under 109 ppg at home, the absence of Griffin obviously changes things. That's certainly been factored into this total, but it's still worth noting.
The 'under' has gone 4-2 so far in this series and that's a trend I seen continuing on Sunday afternoon.
Dustin Hawkins
Los Angeles at Texas
Play: Texas +103
Play on any home team like Texas that is a cold hitting team-batting .215 or worse their last 15 games, playing on Sunday. These teams are 42-15 over the last 5 seasons winning at 73.7%. Texas is 18-9 against the money line when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 54%) over the last 2 seasons. Ranger pitcher Martin Perez is 15-6 against the money line when the money line is +125 to -125 over the last 2 seasons.
Carolina Sports
Cincinnati at St Louis
Play: St Louis -160
Reds are 1-4 in their last 5 vs. a team with a winning record. Reds are 0-4 in their last 4 road games. Reds are 0-4 in their last 4 vs. National League Central. Reds are 0-4 in their last 4 road games vs. a right-handed starter. Reds are 2-6 in Arroyo's last 8 starts vs. National League Central.
Cardinals are 4-0 in their last 4 vs. National League Central. Cardinals are 6-1 in their last 7 home games vs. a right-handed starter. Cardinals are 6-1 in their last 7 overall. Cardinals are 6-1 in their last 7 games vs. a right-handed starter. Cardinals are 4-0 in Leake's last 4 Sunday starts. Cardinals are 4-1 in Leake's last 5 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.
Rob Vinciletti
Seattle vs. Cleveland
Play: Cleveland -149
The Indians fit a nice system that plays on home favorites off a 1 run home favored win that scored 4 or less runs on 5+ hits with 1 or less errors, vs an opponent off a 1 run road dog loss with 4 or less hits. These home teams have won 24 of 30 since 2004. Seattle is 2-11 the last 13 on the road and has a terrible 6.53 road bullpen Era. They have DeJong making the start against a tough Cleveland lineup. The Indians are 9-3 vs rightys and have Tomlin going and he has won 5 of 6 vs Seattle.
Bruce Marshall
Tampa Bay at Toronto
Pick: Toronto
Aaron Sanchez returns to the mound for the Blue Jays after a near three-week absence, but will be facing one of his favorite teams in the Rays, Last season, Sanchez posted an 0.64 ERA in two starts vs. Tampa Bay and allowed just one run and four hits over 7 IP in an early April start at the Trop. Meanwhile, Rays starter Chris Archer has labored in his last two starts, allowing 9 runs and 13 hits while walking 7 in just 11 2/3 IP. Toronto needs to get winning again and took a step in the right direction with Saturday's win.
Brad Wilton
Game Seven! Are there any better words in the world of sports!?!?!
Here we are with the Jazz and Clippers all knotted at 3-3 and the winner getting the pleasure of facing the rested Golden State Warriors for what will likely be a quick dispatching, but I digress...Someone is winning this game today, and while I suspect the Clippers will take it, I think the Jazz are getting enough to warrant a play on the points.
Home court is "supposed" to mean something in the playoffs, but the nature of this series has not shown that to the case very often, as the visitor has won 4 of the 6 games played straight up, including the last pair.
The underdog has gone 4-2 against the spread in this series, and the Utah Jazz are one of the better road teams in the league this season, sporting a 24-20 straight up mark. The Jazzmen have also covered in 6 of their last 8 visits to the Staples Center, so let's look for a game that heads right down to the wire, and for the Jazz plus the points to get the bacon.
Utah the call.
3* UTAH
Jack Brayman
My free play is the St. Louis Cardinals on the Run Line, against their National League Central rival Cincinnati Reds. The teams were rained out yesterday, and that game will be made up at another date. But they're back on the field for this one, and the game is easy.
Provided there is a break from rain and hail, the Cardinals will keep their momentum going, as they've won three in a row, while the Reds have lost four straight.
Though pitchers are automatically listed when making Run Line wagers, I am insisting you DO NOT worry about who the scheduled starters are. In the event of a scratch, you MUST re-wager the game with the new pitcher(s) who are scheduled. This play will stand no matter who pitches for either team.
The Reds on the road, having to wait out the weather, will come out sluggish and playing with no vigor. On the other hand, we have the Redbirds, who can head into the week with a wealth of momentum by scoring a big win.
Lay the Run line.
3* CARDINALS -1.5
Chris Jordan
Anyone else notice what is going on in San Francisco? The San Diego Padres can win their second road series of the season with another win over the Giants. I don't know if I want to poke the bear, and go against the home team, but I will count on an offensive onslaught and play this one high.
The Padres may be the losingest road team in the majors, with a 5-12 mark on the highway, but they erased a 3-1 yesterday to win 12-4, finding their offense during an eight-run sixth inning.
The momentum will carry over to Sunday, as the season-high 12 runs were the most the Padres scored at AT&T Park. Now the Giants will be out for revenge with bats of their own, and will help take this total high.
5* Padres/Giants Over