Eric Schroeder
On the heels of nailing my free play on the New York Mets as a big underdog over the Washington Nationals on Saturday, I'm headed 15 minutes north to the Bronx, and will play the New York Yankees over the Baltimore Orioles.
The Yankees have won four in a row, while the Baltimore Orioles have lost four of six and don't necessarily look like a team that is playing cohesive at the moment.
And when you have a team like the Yankees streaking like this, and it is playing at home on a weekend against a rival like the Orioles, you ride the wave of momentum.
The Orioles took two of three from the Yankees earlier this month, in Baltimore, so New York will be looking to return the favor.
The Yankees offense is playing extremely well, ranking sixth in the league right now with a .264 batting average. They also rank third in the bigs with 78 runs scored at home, where they're hitting .276.
Baltimore, on the other hand, falls in the lower half of the league with a mere 94 runs scored and a .242 batting average.
Let's take the Yanks today as your freebie.
3* YANKEES
Jeff Benton
After a Friday loss, the Cubs came back on Saturday afternoon in their game at Boston and dumped the Red Sox to even the weekend set. Rubber game tonight, and I side with Chicago to head back home with a win behind Kyle Hendricks.
I have a feeling Hendricks is ready to go on a bit of a run as we head to the second month of the season. Hendricks is off his best start in 4 turns through the rotation, limiting the Pirates to just 4 hits and no runs in his 6 innings of work in a Cubs 1-0 win.
The Cubs have now won 7 of their last 10 games, while the Red Sox have been on the wrong side in 6 of their past 9. Boston's offense is showing some signs of life, but they are still not consistent enough to be trusted.
Eduardo Rodriguez is off his best outing of the young season, as he blanked the Orioles over 6 innings with 7 big strikeouts. That start was on the road. In his lone home start, Rodriguez did allow 3 runs in his 5-plus innings against Pittsburgh. The issue for Rodriguez has been his control, as he has whiffed 22 batters, but he has also walked 12.
Chicago has been the steadier side of late, so side with them to take the rubber game here on Sunday night.
5* CUBS
Dave Essler
Tigers -110 1st Half
Not to be confused with any other five innings. Detroit has fared well against Gonzalez, who at times is under valued, but here he's coming off of a high-pitch count game, and two WAY above average games for him. He's a flyball pitcher against the wrong team here. I'm adding the OVER for Baroo, really, (kidding) because Zimmerman hasn't been great - but he and the Tigers for five innings, at home, is a good bet with not juice, per se. Yes, of course there's some - -110 or whatever and I'll have it graded at whatever # you want since lines aren't up yet for that.
Of course we're not taking Detroit for the game because they've got no bullpen, which Zimmerman is aware of, so perhaps he tries just a BIT harder, who knows. What I do know is if it weren't chilly with a left-to right wind we'd never be able to get this total - and after yesterday even the White Sox VERY GOOD bullpen (which is why I cannot take Detroit for the game) had to be used a fair bit.'
Teddy Davis
Cincinnati at St Louis
Play: St Louis -1½
The Cardinals are rolling right now winning 3 straight and 6 of their last 7. I look for them to continue that streak here with Leake on the mound who has been terrific to start the season.
Leake is 3-1 with a 1.32 ERA in four games so far. He has a better ERA at home with a 1.26.
Arroyo just isn't the same and I don't see him turning it around. I will give him a little credit last game against the Cubs he did impress me. He still owns a 6.86 ERA and a terrible road ERA of 13.50.
Mike Rose
Cubs vs. Red Sox
Play: Cubs +105
Boston has done its best work against righties in going 10-8 and averaging 3.9 runs per game. Likewise, Chicago has terrorized left-handed pitching to the tune of 6.8 runs per game and a 5-1 record. I have more faith in Hendricks coming off his best start of the season than I do Rodriguez whose been nothing more than a mixed bag throughout his entire professional career. Hendricks has still only allowed 19 hits through 22 innings, and enters this start off tossing six innings of shutout ball at the Pirates. Rodriguez is going to tally some strikeouts, but his wildness keeps me off Boston with the Cubs fourth in the league at taking walks. Look for his inability to not issue free passes to be his and the Red Sox undoing in the finale.
Oskeim Sports
Atlanta vs. Milwaukee
Play: Atlanta -101
Milwaukee right-hander Matt Garza just made his first start of the season after being on the 10-day disabled list with a right groin strain. The 33-year-old allowed one run on four hits in 4 innings of work, issuing three walks and striking out four batters.
Garza had his worst season of his professional career in 2015 where he finished with a 5.63 ERA and struck out a career low (6.30 K/9). While his peripherals were slightly better (4.94 FIP; 4.50 xFIP), his skill set was showing signs of regression throughout the 2015 campaign.
Looking for a bounce back season in 2016, Garza once again struggled with a 4.51 ERA, 4.33 FIP and 4.49 xFIP across 101.2 innings. The one positive surrounding Garza is his 54.8% ground ball rate, but inducing worm burners does little good for a pitcher with control issues, a declining strikeout rate and a woefully inadequate infield defense behind him. Let's also note that Garza is 1-4 with a 4.65 ERA and 1.30 WHIP in seven career starts against the Braves.
Atlanta starter Mike Foltynewicz is off to a decent start with a 2.55 ERA in his first three outings this season. He has also enjoyed success against the Brewers as evidenced by his career 1.35 ERA and 0.90 WHIP in two outings.
The 25-year-old has newfound command of his electric fastball and has done an excellent job with keeping the ball in play (0.46 HR/9). A 3.45 FIP substantiates the young hurler's early success in 2017, and he provides excellent value at Miller Park this afternoon.
With Atlanta standing at 21-8 following a win and 4-0 in its last four games overall, take the Braves and invest with confidence.
Note: Milwaukee is 0-5 in its last five home games versus teams with a losing road record and 3-7 in its last ten home games versus right-handed starters. The Braves are 8-3 in their last 11 meetings in Milwaukee.
Dave Cokin
Wizards +4.5
I really don't see much difference in these two teams and feel either side could win any game for as long as the series lasts. The host team won all four regular season hookups, but they were each competitive battles.
So, bottom line for me is that I'll be looking at the underdog side in perhaps all of the games between Washington and Boston, and that includes today's Game One.
Ray Monohan
New York at Washington
Play: Washington +108
Coming into this series the Nationals were hot, but they have lost the first two games in this series. They still have a lot of value in this game though. Noah Syndergaard is on the mound on Sunday for the Mets and although he has looked good this season, he wasn't as dominant in his last start. He gave up five runs in seven innings on the way to his first loss of the season.
The Nationals just have too much firepower in the offense and I think that will be the difference in this game. Some betting trends of note, Nationals are 4-0 in their last 4 during game 3 of a series, are 5-1 in their last 6 Sunday games, and are 10-3 in their last 13 overall. Mets are 1-6 in their last 7 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30. The Nationals offense will be too much.
Brandon Lee
Rays vs. Blue Jays
Play: Rays -109
Tampa Bay is worth a look here against the Blue Jays. The Rays will send out Chris Archer, who has struggled in his last two outings after a great first 3 starts of the season. I like Archer's chances of returning to form here against a Blue Jays offense that has struggle in the first month. Toronto is only scoring 3.6 runs/game (3.0 runs/game at home) and hitting a mere .229 as a team. I also think this is a good spot to go against Blue Jays starter Aaron Sanchez. He hasn't pitched since 4/14 because of a blister and they are going to be cautious with him, which means there's a good chance Tampa Bay's offense gets into that Toronto bullpen early (5.97 ERA at home).
Chip Chirimbes
White Sox +102
The White Sox have won six straight lead the AL in pitching with a team ERA of 2.92 while Detroit is last in the AL team pitching with an ERA of 5.28. Leading the way for Chicago today will be Miguel Gonzalez (3-0, 2.00 ERA) who will be opposed by Detroit's Jordan Zimmermann (2-1, 6.36) who posted a 7.43 ERA in three starts against the White Sox last season. Chicago is streaking and are the side once again.
Mike Menase
Orioles vs. Yankees
Play: Under 8½
This pick may seem unlikely, considering that these teams have combined for 41 runs against each other in their previous two outings. I think this one will turn out differently mostly because of the starting pitching.
Active Yankee batters are producing a paltry .218 BA and .598 ops against Miley in 133 at-bats. Of their 29 hits against him, 21 have been singles and eight have been doubles. The Yankees struggle against Miley is a groundball pitcher. This season, he is inducing opponents to hit groundballs at nearly a 50% rate. Against groundball pitchers, the Yankees are managing just a .593 ops compared to .931 against flyball pitchers. The Yankees do hit significantly better at home than on the road, but Miley's fip was 2.81 in his last game at Yankee stadium. Miley is also a daytime pitcher, as his career ERA is 3.62 during the day compared to 4.35 at night. I expect Miley to be comfortable and ready to continue his strong season against a lineup that he matches up well with.
The Yankees counter with southpaw Jordan Montgomery, who is justifying the hype surrounding him, despire having an unluckily high babip. The Orioles will struggle to hit against him. Against southpaws, the Orioles' ops is just .693 compared to .732 vs righties. The Orioles are also at their worst against flyball pitchers, which Montgomery very much is one, mustering a mere .612 against them compared to .707 against groundball pitchers. Perhaps most decisively, Montgomery enjoys a mixture of power and finesse, as he throws a curve and sinker that exceed average velocity and rarely a hard slider. But his pitches also rely on difficult movement at least as much as on velocity. Against pitchers who are balanced in their power and finesse, the Orioles are at their worst, with just a .611 ops compared to .830 against pitchers who rely solely on finesse. I expect Montgomery to enjoy a positive outing against the Orioles.
The Yankees have the best bullpen in baseball, measured by ERA. The Orioles' bullpen also ranks in the upper-half of the league and they have some solid relievers that they can rely on in a tight game. Brach, for instance, has a whip under 1.00 and Hart has yet to give up a run. I expect both bullpens to secure the 'under' that the starters should assist in achieving. We should have a low-scoring game here.
Andrew Gold
Mariners vs. Indians
Play: Indians -1½
De Jong will be making his season debut as a starter. The youngster has pitched decent in the minors, but now face a team that was in the World Series and on the road. I believe they will just use him for a few innings here.
Tomlin hasn't gotten off to a great start, but his last two outing have been ones to take notice off. He went 6 innings in both games giving up 3 runs in each, but with 0 walks in either game. He has found his command.
Tomlin is also 4-1 against the Mariners with a 3.32 career ERA.
Jimmy Boyd
Minnesota at Kansas City
Play: Kansas City -125
After Saturday's game was rained out, we get the same starting matchup on Sunday and I'm sticking with my free play on the Royals.
The losing streak stops here for Kansas City. The Royals head into Sunday's game against the Twins having lost 8 straight, including a 4-6 defeat to these Twins in Friday's series opener. The big thing to keep in mind with Kansas City's recent slump is that 7 of the 8 losses came on the road. They have a winning record at home on the season and I like the pitching matchup here.
Jason Hammel has been up and down to start, but did pitch extremely well in his last start at home, allowing just 1 run on 6 hits in 6 innings against the Giants. He's more than capable of shutting down this Minnesota offense. The Twins will counter with Phil Hughes, who despite a 3-1 record has a less than impressive 4.71 ERA and 1.333 WHIP. Hughes also owns a 4.97 ERA in 13 career starts against the Royals.
Twins are 5-15 in their last 20 road games against a right-handed starter, 7-19 in their last 26 following a win and 6-20 in their last 26 after scoring 5 or more runs in their last game.
Tony Karpinski
White Sox -104
At this point, the Tigers’ bullpen has to be thrown in a trash can and start from ground zero. They are very bad. Dead arms, inexperienced arms, and more are a part of the bullpen disaster for the Tigers.
If Gonzalez keeps pitching like he has in April, there will be people taking note. He has an ERA of just 2.00, including a solid WHIP of 1.07. His last two starts have been impressive, as he’s allowed just 1 run in 16.1 inning pitched. Additionally, Gonzalez surrendered only 6 hits. More good news for Gonzalez against the Tigers, as he gave up 0 runs this past September against them in 2016.
As I noted earlier, Zimmermann has been struggling mightily. He enters with a 6.35 ERA overall, including a 8.10 ERA in his last three starts.
Handicappers Hub
Jazz vs. Clippers
Play: Under 190
You are going to see some defense today in LA in a must win game 7 where you can expect both teams to buckle down on the defensive side of the ball as well as play with a little fear on the offensive side of the ball. Both teams come in averaging just 98 points per game on the playoffs and I expect both to score below their averages and have it be a fight to 90.
Add the fact that this is an extremely early start in LA for both teams and I look for a very slow first quarter with them not being able to catch up to this total today.