Jack Jones
Astros -1½ +105
Dallas Keuchel is back to the form that won him the Cy Young two years ago. That's why we'll back the 15-9 Houston Astros to win by multiple runs over the Oakland A's today at home.
Keuchel has gone 4-0 with a 1.22 ERA and 0.838 WHIP in five starts this season, including 2-0 with a 0.86 ERA and 0.762 WHIP in three home starts. Keuchel is also 303 with a 2.65 ERA and 1.223 WHIP in 13 career starts against Oakland.
Keuchel has given up just 11 earned runs over 66 2/3 innings in his last nine starts against the A's for a 1.48 ERA. Jesse Hahn hasn't had nearly the same success against the Astros, going 1-2 with a 6.75 ERA and 1.499 WHIP in three career starts against them.
The A's are 12-39 in their last 51 road games vs. a left-handed starter. The Astros are 28-9 in Keuchel's last 37 home starts. Houston is 46-21 in its last 67 vs. a team with a losing record.
SPORTS WAGERS
BOSTON -113 over Chicago
The Cubbies win expectation in this market is so high that when you bet on them, rarely will you be getting a fair price, which is certainly the case here. The Cubs are not rolling over folks like they were last year and come into this game with a 13-10 record. Kyle Hendricks’ (RHP) stock is also high given his breakout 2016 campaign but the very early signs in 2017 suggest that he could be in store for bigger regression than you might expect. His skills so far have been pretty bad with 6.3 K’s/9 3.9 BB’s/9 and a 50% groundball rate. However, what sticks out to us is that he's missing bats at a very low 6% swing and miss rate. That’s significant here because Boston has struck out the fewest times in the major leagues so they will be putting the ball in play here and likely cashing in some runs. For all you fantasy players out there, it’s still early but the window to sell Hendricks at his peak could be quickly closing.
By contrast, the Cubbies swing and miss often. They have struck out 212 times thus far, which is the sixth highest mark in the game. That bodes well here for Eduardo Rodriguez (LHP), who has struck out 22 batters in 17 frames with a 17% swing and miss rate. That elite K-rate carries over from last September in which Rodriguez had 29 K’s in his final 17 innings. All told, he gives up less than a hit per inning and now he’s mowing 'em down too. Rodriguez’s groundball/fly-ball split of 34%/43% is the last piece of this puzzle that needs improvement and if that comes around, this is a Cy Young candidate. The temperature in Boston tonight is expected to be around 48° (9 Celsius) so those fly-balls should be of little concern. We get the Red Sox/Rodriguez combo at home at a bargain price because it’s the Cubs.
Seattle/CLEVELAND Over 9½
We’re committed to playing one baseball total daily for the remainder of the year and if it works out, we’ll start posting more. We’re studying weather conditions and how it affects the flight of the baseball. The effect of humidity on air density is very slight and is actually opposite what it is commonly purported to be. The common reputation of humidity is that it is heavy; however, this is a misnomer. Humidity is actually light for a projectile to fly through, because there is more hydrogen in humid air than in dry air, which contains a larger percentage of nitrogen. And, of course, nitrogen is heavier than hydrogen.
There is a scale that takes into account humidity, as well as temperature and elevation-related barometric pressure that gives us an Air Density Index reading at every ballpark or zip code and the reading today at Progressive Field is 62.19, whereas yesterday the reading in Cleveland was 71.78. The temperature in Cleveland is in the 80's so the air is warm and humidity is high.
Keep in mind that Coors Field Air Density Index reading is generally in the low 50’s while almost all other parks are between 60 and 80. Also keep in mind that low Air Density Index means high scoring and a high reading means low scoring. This is a low reading and the wind is blowing out to centre too. The Mariners will send a rookie pitcher to the mound while the Indians will send the very hittable Josh Tomlin and his 5% swing and miss rate.
Please keep in mind that we’re still experimenting with these readings when applying them to baseball totals. We’re fine tuning it as we go along but we’ve put in the work and have a clear understanding of how this all works. This looks like the best total of the day.
Pittsburgh +117 over MIAMI
The Pirates have taken the first two games of this series while outscoring the Marlins 16-2. Once again, the Pirates are being offered a price with the better pitcher and so once again, we’ll bite. Tom Koehler (RHP) is a 31-year old journeyman that showed glimpses of improving but he’ll never be anything more than an average innings eater. In four starts this season, Koehler has a BB/K split of 10/17 in 21 innings. While his strikeout rate is decent, the Pirates have struck out the fewest times in the NL while ranking 4th in the NL in most walks taken so this is a disciplined team at the dish. Credited with a "quality start" in 53 of 96 games started over the past three seasons, Koehler’s skills say he's never come close to being a league-average pitcher. In fact, since 2014, ERA/xERA/WHIP have all been on a steady climb. Pitching for the laboring offense of Miami and spotting a tag, we’ll pass.
Chad Kuhl (RHP) is 1-2 in two starts with an unsightly 6.63 ERA so his stock is low. Kuhl does not have a sexy prospect pedigree either and his rookie results with the Pirates in 2016 were more mediocre than intriguing (4.20 ERA, 1.32 WHIP. However, Kuhl had a great run in September that was hidden by a terrible 39% hit rate and 62% strand rate. His ability to keep the ball on the ground and post a solid command ratio makes him a decent target in certain spots when taking back a price. Kuhl has a BB/K split of 11/15 in just 19 innings this year but his 13% swing and miss rate and 65% first-pitch strike rate says that BB/K ratio is in line for a serious correction to the good, which makes he and the Pirates a rock soild option here with value.
L.A. Angels -1½ +152 over TEXAS
Martin Perez (LHP) crashed back to earth after a hit%/strand%-fueled mirage in the 1st half of last season. He kept the ball on ground, though not quite to 2015's degree and it’s getting worse this year with a 42% rate after five starts. Other signs are gloomy too, as Perez doesn't miss enough bats to reverse an ugly strikeout rate slide. Perez has walked 15 batters in 26 frames this year. His poor xERA from last season is holding steady again at 5.05 this year. Lots and lots of bad innings are in store for this stiff but this one is priced like the pitching matchup is even. It’s not.
J.C. Ramirez (RHP) has a 4.47 ERA after three starts and three relief appearances but one poor relief outing has caused most of the damage. Ramirez is a pitcher that is proving to be hard to hit. His high-octane fastball is finally translating into strikeouts. Ramirez has whiffed 22 batters in 22 innings while walking just seven and brings a 3.44 xERA into this start. He's always been of the "live arm" variety and perhaps knowing that he’ll be starting every fifth day has resulted in a sense of calmness and confidence. Take out his relief appearances in which he was trying too hard to do too much in an inning and Ramirez’s last three appearances, all starts, have all been progressively better, capped off by a two-hit gem in seven innings in his last start. Better suited to start than relieve, Ramirez is absolutely the better option here and so are the Halos.
SPORTS WAGERS
NASHVILLE -½ +120 over St. Louis
Regulation only. The Blues were outplayed in their series with the Wild, yet were able to win four of five games. This is not an isolated case. The same could be said of the Ducks and Penguins, both of which won short series after being the second-best team on the ice every night. Hockey is a funny game that more often than not comes down to which of the two goaltenders had the better night. Minnesota State Troopers are still looking for Jake Allen after he robbed the Wild in all four victories. In the third period of Game 2 of this series in St. Louis, Allen saved the day again. Vladimir Tarasenko has received all the headlines and heroics that come with scoring a pair of goals in a comeback win, but it was Allen that weathered a 14-shot third period to give the Blues a chance to win it late. It’s been a one-man goaltending show for the Blues in this year’s playoffs, as Tarasenko had just three points in the Wild series and was shut out in Game 1 of round two. The Blues continue to be the second best team on the ice in every single game they play and now they’re on the road again and one of the league’s most difficult venues. If Allen bails them out again, so be it.
The Predators may have tasted playoff defeat for the first time in 2017 after a 3-2 loss in St. Louis, but they got the split and now have home ice advantage. Sure, with a 2-1 third-period lead, the Predators would have liked a better result, but Nashville has a ton of good things to build on heading into Game 3. The Preds controlled play through the first two games of this series and outshot the Blues in both games. In Game 1, the Preds won the faceoff battle 38-23 and they’ve been the more physical team too by out-hitting the Blue Notes in both games while imposing their will. Let’s not forget that Nashville was also short-handed up front after the unfortunate injury to Kevin Fiala midway through Game 1 and the ejection of Vern Fiddler in Game 2, thus forcing them to play with just 11 forwards for most of this series and yet they still outplayed the Blues in St. Louis in both games.
If you watched Washington manhandle Pittsburgh last night, it’s a reminder that one man in hockey, the goaltender, combined with some puck luck can result in the inferior team winning often. We’re not going to bank on that occurring over and over. What we’re confident about is that the Preds are extremely likely to impose their will again at home and dominate play from start to finish. This team and their fans are hungry as a pack of wolves and we’re betting that a big response and an easy victory is in the cards today.
Larry Ness
Chicago AT Boston
Pick: Under
The Cubs and Red Sox in Fenway (as it would be at Wrigley, as well) is a special series. The Red Sox won 5-4 on Friday night and the Cubs bounced back with a 7-4 Saturday afternoon. So that means it's the rubber match of this series tonight on ESPN. The 13-10 Cubs are looking to win their fourth straight series, while the 12-11 Red Sox are attempting to avoid their third consecutive series loss.
The atmosphere at Fenway Park has been electric for the first two games and fans with tickets to Sunday's game will also be treated to a special photo-op. Both "curse-breaking" World Series trophies will be on display, Boston's from 2004 and Chicago's from last year, in the Gate K/B concourse after the gates open at 6:35 p.m. ET. Fans will be allowed to take pictures with both trophies. The teams are asking for a $20 suggested donation to benefit the Red Sox Foundation and Cubs Charities.
The pitching matchup will be Kyle Hendricks (2-1, 4.50 ERA) of Chicago and Eduardo Rodriguez (1-1, 3.12 ERA) of Boston. Hendricks struggled in his first three starts (11 ERs in 16 innings for a 6.19 ERA) but pitched six scoreless innings Tuesday at Pittsburgh, allowing four hits and two walks in a 1-0 victory. Rodriguez allowed nine hits and seven walks in his first two starts of 2017 (six ERs over 10.1 innings for a 5.23 ERA) and pitched out of the bullpen on April 19th. However, he was outstanding in his return to the rotation last Sunday at Baltimore, holding the Orioles to one hit over six scoreless innings with seven strikeouts.
Let's not forget that Hendricks won the National League ERA title last year at 2.13 and that Rodriguez is holding opponents to a .172 average. His issue in those first two starts was serving up three HRs. Make the Under the play in this one.
Harry Bondi
BOSTON -4.5 over Washington
Quick turnaround for both teams who wrapped their first round series on Friday. Celts have won and covered last four meeting in Boston. In fact, the home team has dominated this series winning eight of last ten games. Washington also failed to cover both round games in the first round while the Celtics have won and four straight against Chicago. Boston wins game 1 of this series.
Bob Balfe
Dodgers -1.5
The Phillies were on a nice winning streak that should have continued last night by LA hit back to back to back home runs in the 9th to win the game. The Phillies are not great against left handed pitching so I expect the Dodgers to come out with the same fire power as that 9th inning yesterday. This will start the downfall of the Phillies over the next few weeks.
Best pick
Minnesota vs Kansas (#928 over 4½-125 1H) (MLB) *2500
Secondaries picks
Atlanta vs Milwaukee (#903 over 9-120) (MLB) *1500
Arizona vs Arizona (#910 over 5½-120 1H) (MLB) *1000
Oakland vs Houston (#925 over 4-115 1H) (MLB) *1000
Gary Bart
Cubs vs. Red Sox
Play: Cubs +101
The Cubs bounced back with a nice effort yesterday after losing Game 1 of this series. Both teams are in the playoff hunt, but neither have been dominant so far this season. Both teams were expected to receive great starting pitching, but neither has up until this point. I like Chicago to make it two in a row over the Red Sox.