Free Picks for Sunday, April 9th, 2017 from some of the nations best and worst handicappers
Bruce Marshall
Royals +185
The Astros have suddenly lost three in a row with the bats into a major funk, scoring just 5 runs total in the losses. So even though Lance McCullers looks to have the edge on Nathan Karns, we wonder about the Houston bullpen, which collapsed after Dallas Keuchel's exit on Saturday. The Royals have scored 12 runs over the past two days while winning twice at Minute Maid Park after getting swept three games at Minnesota to open the season.
Scott Spreitzer
Mariners vs. Angels
Play: Mariners +115
Seattle will try to avoid a sweep with Hisashi Iwakuma on the mound and he allowed two runs on four hits in six innings on Tuesday against Houston. Iwakuma pitched well at Angel Stadium last season allowing only five earned runs in 21 1/3 innings for a 2.11 ERA. Angels hitters are batting only .203 against Iwakuma, including Mike Trout and Albert Pujols, who are a combined 17-for-102 against him for a .167 average. Matt Shoemaker labored through five innings on Tuesday giving up two runs (both homers) and walking three in the Angels' 7-6 win. The right-hander is attempting to come back from a skull fracture he suffered in September and his worst month last year was April when he was 1-4 with a 9.15 ERA.
Marc Lawrence
Dallas vs. Phoenix
Play: Dallas +1½
Edges - Mavericks:28-13 ATS in this series with a win percentage of less than .420… Suns: 1-13 SU and 5-8-1 ATS last fourteen overall games, and 3-10 ATS as a favorite this season and 3-8 ATS following a win versus foes off a loss this season. With the Mavs looking to avenge home loss suffered to the Suns in their last meeting a month ago, we recommend a 1* play on Dallas.
Dustin Hawkins
Royals +175
The Royals are 102-77 against the money line vs. an AL team with an on base percentage .320 or worse over the last 3 seasons. Astro's pitcher Lance McCullers is only 5-12 against the money line with a team slugging percentage .400 or worse on the season (AL) over the last 3 seasons.
Jimmy Boyd
Yankees vs. Orioles
Play: Orioles -129
I cashed in with Baltimore on my AL East game of the month yesterday and I like the Orioles to come out on top in the series finale Sunday. Baltimore is now a perfect 4-0 to start the season, while the Yankees are 1-4. New York is short-handed at the moment, shortstop Didi Gregourius is out until May, first basemen Greg Bird and catcher Gary Sanchez are also both out at the moment. The Yankees are simply getting some respect here because of C.C. Sabathia pitching well in his last start. He allowed just 3 hits over 5 innings, but was fortunate it wasn't worse. He was hit hard several times that resulted in outs. He only struck out 2 hitters and clearly isn't going to be asked to go deep in games early if he only last 5 innings giving up 3 hits and 2 walks. I'll take my chances on the Baltimore offense putting up a big enough number here to secure the win.
Cajun Sports
Washington vs. Philadelphia
Play: Washington -168
The Washington Nationals are in the City of Brotherly Love on Sunday for the third and final game of their three-game weekend set against the hometown Phillies. The Nationals will send Stephen Strasburg to the bump with his 1-0 record and an ERA of 2.57 on the young season. In his first outing he allowed just two runs on six hits over seven innings of work which was good enough for a 4 to 2 victory over the Marlins. In that game Strasburg struck out three and we note last season he was a strikeout machine averaging 11.15 K’s per nine innings which ranked him fourth in the majors. Strasburg has dominated the Phillies throughout his career, sporting an 8-2 record with a 2.37 ERA in 110 career innings pitched. Jeremy Hellickson will get the ball for the Phillies and he is also coming off a Game One victory. Hellickson allowed one run on six hits over five innings of work against the Reds on opening day which helped propel them to a 4 to 3 victory. The right-hander was hit hard by this Nationals team last season allowing fourteen run with thirteen of those earned in just twenty-three innings work. Hellickson has an ERA of 5.67 in 33.1 innings of work versus this Washington team over his career. If you like weekday angles Strasburg fits a nice one as he is 24-4 SU in his last twenty-six starts on Sunday. Bad news for Phillies backers for sure and we add the fact that Strasburg is 11-2 SU over his last thirteen road starts. Our BbTPR Index projects a run advantage of 1.32 runs in favor of the Nationals. The SPMatrix has Stephen Strasburg with an average of 6.94 and Jeremy Hellickson with an average of 6.02. We do not like laying heavy chalk but in this case the oddsmakers have given up solid value with the Nationals and Strasburg because our numbers have them favored by -203.
Rob Vinciletti
Houston vs. Sacramento
Play: Houston -9.5
The Rockets have won all 3 meetings this year by at least 13 over Sacramento. The winning team in the series has covered 24 of the last 25. The Kings have failed to cover 3 of 4 here vs the Rockets. Road favorites of 5 or more that failed to cover by 10+ points as a home favorite of 10 or more have covered 88% since 1995 vs a tem off a road spread loss that scored 90 or more. Houston has covered 9 of the last 11 on the road off a home spread loss.
Power Sports
Detroit vs. Memphis
Pick: Over 196
While I have some concern over a Pistons teams that doesn't often shoot well, going against a Grizzlies defense that has been on fire of late, this O/U line is far too low by today's standard. It's just not often that you find sub-200 pt O/U lines anymore. OK, they're still somewhat commonplace when Memphis is involved. But the O/U line for Detroit's last game was 224.5 and despite both teams shooting poorly, the Over still almost hit. This one should find a way to sneak Over the total.
Detroit has officially been eliminated from playoff contention. So I would hardly expect any emphasis to be placed on the defensive end here. Certainly, no such emphasis has existed for much of this season when they take their act out on the road. Allowing 106.2 PPG is one of the major reasons for a terrible 12-27 SU record away from home, which in turn kept them out of the playoffs. But if you're looking for some positives with this team right now, then look no further than two nights ago when they went into Houston (as 11-pt dogs) and won outright, 114-109. They scored that many despite shooting just 42.6% from the field.
Scoring on Memphis has been tough, especially of late. They've held three straight opponents below 44% shooting, but I'm not sure that's sustainable. They gave up only 88 points last time out, but that was against the atrocious Knicks. Even with the Grizzlies allowing just 96.9 PPG at home this season, the total PPG scored is right in line with this number. I do anticipate them topping 100 pts in this game, so even if they stick to their season average defensively, an Over should be in the cards here. Overall, both of these teams score and allow just over 100 PPG for the year.
Jim Feist
Canucks at Oilers
Pick: Under
Edmonton has great balance and is strong on defense, #8 in goals allowed. Into town comes a Vancouver team that can't score, #29 in goals scored and on the power play. The under is 38-18-15 when the Canucks face the Pacific division. Edmonton is 21-8-2 under at home against a team with a road winning percentage of less than .400, as well as a 33-14-5 under at home. And the Under is 6-2 in the last 8 meetings.
Brad Wilton
My Sunday comp play will be the same as my Saturday paid play, and that is the Indians and the Diamondbacks to play Over the total.
I told you yesterday that the Snakes were locked in at the plate on this season opening homestand, and while it took a little time for Torey Lovullo's team to get things going at the dish, they did indeed get things going in their 11-2 romp.
That puts Arizona at 5-0-1 Over in their 6 games played this season!
Cleveland is right there with them, at 3-1-1 Over the total in their 5 games played on the year.
Both starters are getting their second trip to the mound, and both Corey Kluber and Patrick Corbin did give up a few runs in their season debuts....Kuber allowing 5 runs in his 6 innings of work, while Corbin allowed 3 runs - 2 of them earned - in his 4 innings pitched.
Might as well ride the Over one more time at Chase Field on Sunday!
4* CLEVELAND-ARIZONA OVER
Jack Brayman
My free play is on the Arizona Diamondbacks, over the Cleveland Indians in Interleague play. The Snakes have won four in a row, and roll in with an impressive 5-1 mark.
They should ride the momentum from the first two games of this series, and complete the sweep. Arizona erased a 3-0 deficit after two innings, to come from behind for a 7-3 win after erupting for seven runs in the fourth and fifth innings on Friday. Last night the Snakes blasted the defending the American League champs 11-2.
Arizona has overcome three-run deficits three times and a two-run deficit once, showing resiliency early on this season. It's now shown offensive prowess and domination of a very good baseball team.
I won't list the pitchers here, as my money is on Arizona's momentum getting it done against the Tribe.
3* DIAMONDBACKS
Scott Rickenbach
Boston vs. Detroit
Play: Boston -112
The Tigers are 3-1 on the season but they're hitting just .200 as a team and Detroit is unlikely to get back on track today. That's because Boston's Rick Porcello had a solid start Monday against the Pirates and his team's record is 2-0 in his career starts against the Tigers and he has compiled a 1.29 ERA and 0.79 WHIP in those two outings. He should get plenty of run support here as Detroit's Daniel Norris is 0-2 with an 8.64 ERA and 2.28 WHIP in his starts against the Red Sox in his career. The Tigers are a dog for the first time this season and they've gone 13-26 (33%!) the past two seasons as a home dog of +100 to +125. Look for the Red Sox to improve to a perfect 3-0 this season in games where they are a favorite. Last, but certainly not least, Boston's bullpen has a 1.50 ERA so far this season while the Tigers have a 7.53 ERA with their pen. Off back to back losses, look for the Red Sox to bounce back here.
Ray Monohan
Rockets vs. Kings
Play: Kings +9½
The Sacramento Kings play the suddenly struggling Houston Rockets on Sunday. At this kind of spread there is value. In their last game the Rockets let Boban Marjanovic score a career high 27 points. The Rockets all year have had a problem slowing down a true big. I think Willie Cauley-Stein will exploit that and have a huge game.
Now it's no doubt the Rockets are the better team in this match up but I think the Kings are playing well enough they can keep it close. Some trends to note. Rockets are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games. Kings are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600. Home team is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings.
Look for this game to come down to the final couple of minutes.
Brandon Lee
Atlanta vs. Pittsburgh
Play: Atlanta +132
Atlanta is worth a look here, as I think we are getting exceptional value here with the Braves given the pitching matchup and how these two starters looked in their first outing of the season. Atlanta gives the rock to Julio Teheran, who tossed 6 scoreless innings, allowing just 4 hits at New York (Mets). Pittsburgh counters with Gerrit Cole, who is a big name and considered the ace of the staff, but is coming off a down year and was far from impressive in his first start, allowing 5 runs on 7 hits with a mere 2 strikeouts in 5 innings of work at Boston. I also like Atlanta playing here to avoid being swept and they have been in each of the first two games of the series, losing 4-5 on Friday and 4-6 on Saturday.