Info Plays
Royals +175
Here are some of systems backing our pick. Kansas City is 189-156 (+28.4 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 3 seasons. Kansas City is 162-127 (+29.5 Units) against the money line when the total is 7 to 8.5 over the last 3 seasons.
Frank Jordan
Marlins vs. Mets
Play: Mets -185
Miami has won the first two games of this series and three in a row overall to move into a tie with Washington in the NL East. NY Mets have dropped two in a row to fall to 2-3 and a game back of first place. Edinson Volquez and Noah Syndergaard each throw shutout innings in their first start and came away with a no decision and looking for their first win of the season. Volquez went five innings, allowing four hits, a walk, while striking out six and left with a lead, but Washington rallied against the bullpen scoring a run in the sixth two in the seventh and one more in the eighth to win 4-2. Syndergaard threw six shutout innings, allowing five hits, no walks and struck out seven, but the Mets didn't score until the bottom of the seventh to win 6-0. Last year Volquez pitched once against the Mets while still with Kansas City and won going six innings of shutout ball, but now he is with Miami and it will be a different story. Syndergaard made three starts against Miami and went 2-0 with a 1.80 ERA and 29 strikeouts. Look for Syndergaard to be dominant once again over Miami as has them whiffing all day in a 10 strikeout performance in six innings of shutout ball with the Mets winning 6-2.
Wunderdog
Dallas @ Phoenix
Pick: Dallas +2.5
Dallas plays outstanding team defense and is fourth in the NBA in points allowed. The Mavericks are also 24-9-1 ATS following a straight up loss. Phoenix is home but plays no defense, #25 in field goal shooting defense, last in points allowed (113.2 points per game), and at defending the three-pointer. The Suns are at the bottom of the Western Conference, 1.5 games below the Los Angeles Lakers, and own the second fewest wins in the league. They have lost three straight games as a favorite. Phoenix is also 12-28 ATS after a victory, plus 21-47 ATS following a spread cover.
John Martin
Cavaliers -2.5
The Cleveland Cavaliers were visibly and vocally upset for losing 114-100 at home against the Atlanta Hawks on Friday. It was a clear letdown spot for them after beating the Celtics, and the Hawks rested their starters, so the Cavs didn't show up at all. Needing to secure the No. 1 seed in the East, expect a much better effort from the Cavs in the rematch Sunday. They are just a half-game ahead of the Celtics for the top spot. The Hawks are 0-7 ATS in their last seven games following a straight up win of more than 10 points. The Cavaliers are 5-1 ATS in their last six trips to Atlanta.
Andrew Gold
Cavaliers -2
The Cavs were just completely embarrassed by the Hawks the other night as they lost SU as 15 point favorites. Atlanta not really known for their outside shooting since Korver was traded made 16 threes in that game. Mentioning Korver this will be his first game back at Atlanta so he will have something in store for them. I believe this will be a statement game like what the Cavs did @ Boston last week.
Black Widow
Timberwolves -5
Bets on road teams (Minnesota) after allowing 100 points or more in four straight games against an opponent that's off a win by 6 points or less are 73-37 ATS over the last 5 seasons. The Lakers would be better off losing today to try and help their chances of getting a Top 3 pick in the draft as their first round pick is Top 3-protected.
SPORTS WAGERS
N.Y. ISLANDERS -1½ +171 over Ottawa
Regulation only. That huge sigh of relief coming from the middle of the country isn't that of the jubilant Leafs fans, whose team clinched a playoff spot last night, but from just up the 401 highway in the nation's capital where the Ottawa Senators were finally able to exhale after a horrible month to end the season. Sens fans saw their team go from division contender before a home-and-home set with the Canadiens in March to a Wild Card hanger on with just a week to go in the season after five straight losses. The Sens took care of business last week and won their last three games to clinch home ice in the first round after a 3-1 home win over the Rangers yesterday afternoon. While the win was what Ottawa needed, the Rags had no reason to show up and did not come to play in that game. It's a scenario that the Sens now find themselves in just a day later. Ottawa cannot improve its playoff position and will host either the Leafs or Bruins in round one. This meaningless trip to Brooklyn to play the Islanders is nothing more than an inconvenience. The Sens have been playing their hearts out for 81 games and this is the exhale game just before the playoffs. We’d be shocked if Karlsson, Turris and Hoffman even laced them up today.
The Islanders played a spirited game last night in a 4-2 victory over New Jersey. The Isles did what they had too but as fate would have it, a late comeback by the Maple Leafs over the Penguins sealed their fate and they’ll now watch the playoffs from the rail. While missing the playoffs has to be disappointing, to a man, the Islanders can look at each other and be proud of how they finished the season. The Isles went 5-0 on the back of goaltender Jaroslav Halak who was left to rot in the minors for most of the season. The Islanders have one more game left and while it does not mean anything, it’s still at home and they still sold lots of tickets because many folks in the region thought it was going to be a big game. This wager, however, is all about fading the Sens in a horrible situational spot.
TORONTO -½ +121 over Columbus
Regulation only. The Jackets are playing the Penguins in the first round and there is nothing they can do about that. Columbus will open up on the road on Wednesday but first they’ll have to close out the season in Toronto in what is a meaningless game for them. They played yesterday in Philadelphia and lost and they might be even less focused here.
The Maple Leafs had a huge win last night that sent them into the playoffs for the first time in four years. It was an emotional win and it also took everything they had, as they trailed 3-2 with less than six minutes left in the third. The propensity may be for a letdown after such a big win but this game may actually be bigger and we can’t imagine for a second that Toronto will be flat. The Leafs have unfinished business. If they lose this game, the Leafs will travel to Washington to face the Caps in the first round. They’ll be a big underdog versus Washington and it’ll be a daunting task to say the least. However, the Maple Leafs control their own destiny and can avoid the Caps in the first round with a much preferred series against Ottawa. A win over Columbus here and Toronto will open against the very beatable Senators. In fact, there’s a good chance that the Maple Leafs will be favored over Ottawa. What’s on the line here is a date with Ottawa or Washington and nothing more needs to be said about what will motivate the Leafs here.
SPORTS WAGERS
Minnesota +121 over CHICAGO
Minnesota/CHICAGO Over 8
We’re going to be playing a lot more MLB totals this year after our second year of studying how weather conditions affect the flight of the baseball. We all know that weather plays a part but the vital information is in the key elements. The wind conditions are easy but the more complicated areas are elevation levels, humidity, barometric pressure and the air density index at each venue. It’s fascinating stuff and while there are no guarantees of anything, we can get quite an edge by being extremely knowledgeable in these areas. We did our homework and we are absolutely going to put it to the test this year. Our research suggests the conditions are favorable for some runs today at US Cellular Field and when you combine the two starters with two weak bullpens, we trust we have an edge. The total is low because the first two games in this series went under (3-1 and 6-2) but conditions in those two games were not favorable. It’ll be 72 degrees F (22 C) at game time in Chicago today with the barometric pressure, air density and humidity levels all working in our favor.
Another reason this number is low is because market perception is that Jose Quintana is the ace of the South Side’s staff while Ervin Santana is coming off a seven-inning, two hit gem to open the year. Quintana may be Chicago’s ace but that’s like saying Jack Nicklaus could beat Gary Player and Bob Barker in a 50-yard dash. We wrote about Quintana in our game analysis.
As for Santana, well, we’re certainly not going to put emphasis on one start. Santana should be the poster boy for skills fluctuations. The pros are that he posted 9.3 K’s/9 over his last 11 games last year and he eats innings. The cons are that he posted his lowest first-pitch strike rate since 2006 and his second half surge was more about hit%/strand% fortune than skills. Santana also had a sizable overall ERA/xERA gap. In his first start this year, again, on a very cold day in Minnesota, Santana did go seven frames but he whiffed a measly three batters. The Royals put the ball in play all day but it was not carrying well. That will not be the case today. It’s also worth noting that these two teams are averaging the third and fourth most runs per game in the league after the first week of the season.
ST. LOUIS -1½ +115 over Cincinnati
Carlos Martinez’s whiff rate on his change-up went from 24% in 2015 to 15% in 1st half of last year amid speculation he was tipping the pitch, so perhaps that explains his K-rate and swing and miss fluctuations (2H change-up whiff rate was 19%). Martinez’s ERA is likely to regress a bit and he still needs to improve versus lefties but at 25, we probably haven't seen his best yet. Martinez suffered a shoulder strain last season but was good in both August and September and his September command sub-indicators were near-elite: 12% swing and miss rate, 66% first pitch strike rate, and 34% ball %. A healthy Martinez still carries sub-3 ERA ace upside and boy did he look good in his first start with 10 K’s and zero walks over seven full.
The Reds sent Bronson Arroyo to the hill yesterday and will come back with Bronson Arroyo II today. Scott Feldman was Cinci’s Opening Day starter in Philadelphia and was tagged for seven hits and four runs in 4.2 innings of work. Don’t be fooled by the six Phillies he struck out either, as his swing and miss rate was a mere 7% and Philadelphia is a team that rarely sees a pitch they don’t like. The Cardinals will work the count and make this stiff throw strikes. For most of his career, Feldman has paired a middling strikeout rate with similarly middling control (with middling results). Primarily a finesse pitcher, Feldman's swing and miss % remains uninspiring. His changeup, which produced swings and misses 16% of the time in 2012 and 9% in 2013 per PITCHf/x, plummeted to 6% last season. Scott Feldman has a job only because teams' need guys to eat innings and that’s what he does. The Reds are going to be outstanding in a couple of years but right now, they can be faded every single time Arroyo and Arroyo II are on the mound and we will not make an exception here.
COLORADO +115 over Los Angeles
If the Rockies can beat Clayton Kershaw, surely they can defeat Kenta Maeda. Maeda does not have a strong groundball profile, which is one of the first things we look at when fading pitchers at this park. The second thing is strikeouts and while Maeda’s strikeout rate was good last year, it declined in his final eight starts and he only struck out four while walking two in his season debut at Chavez Ravine against the Halos. Don’t get us wrong, as Maeda has great upside but this park doesn’t give a f**k about who you are and Maeda’s inability to pitch deep into games is very concerning.
Tyler Anderson has all the tools to thrive. This former first rounder finally shook off arm woes and looked good in his MLB debut last year. That strong command he posted came with full underlying support, so don't dismiss it. His groundball profile gives him a higher floor than you'd expect from a thin-air pitcher. His 3.74 xERA confirms that he's a legit sub-4 ERA pitcher when healthy. He's a skilled pitcher whose injury history makes him extremely undervalued. In his first start of the year, Anderson allowed eight hits and five earned runs in Milwaukee but he only walked one and struck out eight in 5.2 innings. Random luck, be it good or bad cannot be predicted. A pitcher can induce 10 groundballs and seven of them will find a hole one day and two will find a hole the next day. Anderson has a good strikeout rate, he induces groundballs and he’s a pooch in his own yard against a Dodgers’ squad that dropped the first two games of this series.
OC Dooley
Sabres +160
Even though they have won 7 of the last 9 games, Tampa Bay officially was eliminated from the playoff picture yesterday making this particular home finale bitter sweet. Many prognosticators had Tampa Bay as a serious contender for a Stanley Cup Championship so their exclusion from the postseason is truly shocking. I am aware that visiting Buffalo is limping to the finish line having scored only 7 goals in the past "five" games combined. But the visiting Sabres do have an interesting story as BUFFALO NATIVE Sean Malone will suit up. It was back on Thursday when Malone was part of the NCAA Frozen Four (Harvard) and just last night after signing an entry-level contract was playing in the NHL which to me is a positive jolt for the franchise
Bruce Marshall
Rockets / Kings Under 224
Series trends are completely one-sided in Houston's favor this campaign but on the final weekend of the regular season and with the Rockets locked into the 3rd seed in the West, no reason for a big effort from Mike D'Antoni's troops, who have slumped the past week as they coast into the playoff round. The trend to note in recent games with both of these teams is "under" (Rockets that way 5 of 6, Sacto that way 7 of 8 ).