Free Picks for Sunday, February 12th, 2017, from some of the nations best and worst handicappers
DAVE COKIN
MICHIGAN AT INDIANA
PLAY: INDIANA -2.5
Indiana came up just a bit short on Thursday in a hard fought loss to Purdue. The Hoosiers will try get a win they really need in the worst way today as Michigan comes to town.
One thing sure is that Indiana will need to be far better prepared than they were for the first meeting with the Wolverines. That was an utter disaster for the Hoosiers. Michigan was in total control all the way, Indiana played almost no defense, and the 90-60 final score was very indicative of what a total mismatch the game was.
I would have to make this advantage Indiana from a scheduling standpoint. The revenge factor is real here. Meanwhile, Michigan is off its own rivalry revenge win as they knocked off Michigan State on Tuesday, and the Wolverines will be looking for more of the same on Thursday when they host Wisconsin.
I also have to believe the real James Blackmon will surface here for Indiana. Blackmon looked rusty against Purdue after having to sit out a few games. Robert Johnson is also off a very poor performance in that game against the Boilermakers, and he should rebound here.
Michigan is obviously no pushover, and the Wolverines will rightfully have plenty of confidence against a team they handled so easily just a couple weeks ago. But I’ll swallow the must-win game for Indiana bait, and will forecast a win and cover by the Hoosiers today.
Scott Rickenbach
Pistons vs. Raptors
Play: Under 211½
After an ugly 2-8 stretch, the Raptors were trying to get back on track and they did just that with 2 straight wins. However, all that momentum was then ruined by a loss at Minnesota on Wednesday. Toronto owes that defeat to shoddy defense and that has been the focus in practice for the Raptors. With the fresh legs from having been off 3 straight days and with the Raptors knowing they need to improve defensively if they want to win consistently, I look for this one to be a rather low-scoring battle Sunday. Keep in mind, the Pistons come into this one having stayed under the total in 3 of their last 4 games. Detroit is off of an ugly home loss to the Spurs Friday and the Pistons have gone 10-6 to the under this season when they are off of a loss by a margin of 10 points or more. Turning attention back to the Raptors. Toronto has gone 6-3 to the under in Sunday games this season. The Pistons are also a 67% play to the under in Sunday games as they are 4-2 to the under on Sundays this season. With both teams off of a loss where lagging defense was definitely an issue, look for plenty of defensive intensity in this one.
John Martin
Pelicans vs. Kings
Play: Kings -3
Don't look now but the Sacramento Kings are playing some of their best basketball of the season heading into tonight's tilt with the New Orleans Pelicans. The Kings have won three of their last four, which includes victories over two of the best teams in the NBA in the Warriors and Celtics. They also topped the Hawks and only lost to the Bulls by 5. I think this is a short number here for the Kings, who will be up against a Pelicans team that is just 7-18 on the road this season. Plus, the Pelicans have a plethora of injuries they are dealing with right now with four key players questionable. New Orleans is 2-12 ATS in its last 14 road games following a road win. The Pelicans are 0-5 ATS in their last five games following a straight up win. Sacramento is 17-6-1 ATS in its last 24 home meetings with New Orleans.
Marc Lawrence
Cincinnati vs. SMU
Play: SMU -3½
Edges - Mustangs: 8-1 ATS home this season, and 6-1-1 ATS in conference games this season. Bearcats: 11-0 SU and 7-1 ATS versus .500 or less opponents this season, but only 4-8-1 ATS against winning foes. With the Mustangs looking to avenge a 66-64 loss at Cincinnati on January 12, their only loss since November 30, we recommend a 1* play on SMU.
Black Widow
Cincinnati vs. SMU
Play: SMU -3½
Bets on home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points with an average offense (67-74 PPG) against an excellent defensive team (63 PPG or less) after 15-plus games, after allowing 65 points or less in two straight games are 44-15 ATS over the last 5 seasons. SMU wants revenge from a 64-66 loss in Cincinnati earlier this season. I like their chances of getting that revenge at home considering they are 14-0 SU & 8-1 ATS at home this year.
Dave Price
Oregon State +28
I expect this to be a flat spot for the UCLA Bruins today against the Oregon State Beavers. The Bruins are coming off a huge 82-79 home victory over the Oregon Ducks in comeback fashion on Thursday. They won't be amped up to face the Beavers at all today, especially since they already beat them 76-63 on the road as 21-point favorites in their first meeting. Now they're being asked to beat them by 28 points in the rematch, which is too much given the spot. Bets on underdogs of 10 or more points off 9 or more consecutive losses, a terrible team that has won 20% or less of their games on the season are 47-23 ATS over the last 5 seasons.
Jack Jones
Temple vs. Memphis
Play: Memphis -6
The Memphis Tigers will be out for revenge from a 66-77 road loss to Temple about two weeks ago on January 25th. Now they get the Owls at home this time around. The Tigers are 13-2 at home this season, outscoring opponents by 12.6 points per game on average.
Temple is just 2-7 in true road games this year, losing by 9.2 points per game on average. In conference play alone they are 1-5 in road games. They lost by 24 at UCF, by 14 at SMU, by 14 at UConn and by 13 at Houston. I think another double-digit road loss can be expected here against Memphis.
Memphis is a solid 49-30 ATS in its last 79 when revenging a road loss vs. opponent. The Owls are 1-6-1 ATS in their last eight games as an underdog. Temple is 1-5-1 ATS in its last seven road games.
Mike Anthony
Cincinnati vs. SMU
Play: Cincinnati +5
Cincinnati have some very accomplished players like Kyle Washington and Jacob Evans so they can make defenses nervous when they start putting together quick runs. The Southern Methodist defense needs to try and take a stand vs Cincinnati because they can't let Evans do what he wants - and I feel strong that they wont be able to do very much stopping here. Cincinnati has been scoring a little up and down over the last several games, this wont be one of them. I don't trust Southern Methodist and their defense scheme. They don't keep enough pressure to make Cincinnati concerned. Without the ability to score quite good enough - the Mustangs will struggle to get any sort of production up front vs the Bearcats defense. Sterling Brown and Shake Milton do not demand enough attention and Semi Ojeleye is very good but still can get one dimensional at times. Cincinnati wins this one outright!
Larry Ness
Detroit vs. Toronto
Pick: Toronto
The Raptors reached the Eastern Conference finals last year and were actually tied at two-all with the Cavs, before losing. However, the Cavs were blown out in the final two games of the series and any serious thought that the Raptors were somehow in Cleveland's class should be dismissed quickly by noting that Cleveland's four wins over the Toronto in that series came by margins of 31, 19, 38 and 26 points!
Toronto plays host to the Pistons on Sunday at Air Canada Centre. The Pistons come in off a 103-92 home loss to the Spurs on Friday. Detroit has a formidable frontcourt led by center Andre Drummond (14.7-13.8 ) plus three quality players in Harris (16.4-5.1), Morris (14.2-4.5) and Leuer (11.1-5.6). Harris is the team's leading scorer but recently, Leuer has been starting. The backcourt features PG Jackson (15.5-5.6 APG), SG Caldwell-Pope (14.1) and Ish Smith (8.4-4.9 APG) coming off the bench. Despite this solid seven-man rotation, the Pistons rank only 24th in points scored at 101.5 PPG, a clear indication that there is little or no depth on the bench.
Depth is an issue often for Toronto, as outside of an All Star starting backcourt featuring DeRozan (27.9-5.3) and Lowry (23.0-4.7-7.0) plus center Valanciunas (12.3-9.9), head coach Casey really can't count on the remainder of his roster to do much. Making matters worse, DeRozan has fought nagging injuries throughout the year (he recently missed four games with an ankle injury) and as we saw often in last year's playoffs, shooting slumps appear all too often with Lowry. He's a workhorse (37.7 MPG is tied for the most) but he's shooting just 33.3 percent over the past four contests!
Toronto was 22-8 through Dec 26 but is just 10-12 since. The 32-22 Raptors have fallen three games behind the Celtics in the Atlantic Division and are now also behind the surging Wizards, leaving them with just the No. 4 seed. The winner of the 4 vs 5 matchup gets the Cavs in t shecond round, something Toronto can't afford! The good news here is that the Pistons are a poor road team (9-18 SU & 10-17 ATS) and don't figure to be able to match the Raptors basket-for-basket here on their homecourt, where Toronto averages 112.7 PPG. An added bonus is that the Raptors have not played since Wednesday (a disappointing 112-109 loss at Minnesota), their first three-day break of the season.
Art Aronson
Detroit vs. Toronto
Play: Toronto
If you’re a fan of “Against The Spread” statistics, then you may want to consider a second look at Toronto today. The Raptors have had three nights off after a loss in Minnesota, while Detroit enters off a loss against the Spurs at home last time out. With a game tomorrow night in Milwaukee, the visitors could also be caught looking ahead here. But as mentioned off the top, from an ATS standpoint, this one sets up beautifully for the Raptors, as Detroit is just just 1-5 ATS this year after playing three consecutive home games and just 10-15 ATS as the underdog. And note that Toronto is 15-11 ATS at home this year and 7-4 ATS off an upset loss as a favorite.
Jim Feist
Washington St at Colorado
Pick: Under
Washington State is 6-1 under the total away from home and 17-8 under the total in Pac 12 play. Colorado plays its best defense at home, 8-2 under the total here. The Buffs have stepped it up on the defensive end, holding their last four opponents to 45 percent or worse shooting from the field. And the Under is 5-1 in Buffaloes last 6 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
Lou Lacerda
Michigan vs. Indiana
Play: Indiana -148
Both the Wolverines and Hoosiers need this win as both are on the outside looking in. Indiana was crushed by Michigan on the road in their 1st meeting. Now Michigan (2-6)on the road, which has been horrible on the road must duplicate that. Not happening Indiana(13-3)straight up at home, gets up big here and takes the win.
Ray Monohan
Pelicans vs. Kings
Play: Kings -3½
The Kings and Pelicans battle Sunday night and Sacramento minus the points has value. Sacramento has won 3 of their last 4 and come in with serious momentum after erasing a 22 point deficit to defeat Atlanta last time out.
This is a game where DeMarcus Cousins should have a field day. Nobody on the Pelicans will be able to stop his inside presence. Expect the Kings to really play through him all night long.
Some trends to note. Pelicans are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up win. Pelicans are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a ATS win.
Situationally, the Pelicans have been horrible lately in a spot like this. Expect the Kings to control the paint here and pull away in this one.
Jimmy Boyd
Oregon State +27½
This is simply too many points for UCLA to be laying in this spot against Oregon State. The Bruins are going to have a terrible time getting up for this game after that huge win at home against Oregon on Thursday. The Beavers aren't exactly a threat, as they are winless in the Pac-12 at 0-12. That's certainly playing into this inflated line here. As big a spread as we have here, most of the betting public would still rather side with UCLA than stomach backing Oregon State.
I don't have any problem taking the Beavers at this price. Keep in mind that UCLA only beat Oregon State by a final of 76-63 as a 21-point road favorite back on 12/30. It just so happens, that came after their first meeting with Oregon, which was also a thriller. Bruins are a mere 3-7 ATS in their last 10 off a SU win, 3-14 ATS in their last 17 against the Pac-12 and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 as a home favorite and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 as a favorite of 13 or more.