Brad Powers
SMU -4
First, I have this game power-rated at SMU -5.57. While, it is tough to fade a Cincinnati team that has won 15 straight games, this is their first underdog role since they lost their last game at Butler back on December 10 (65-75 +3). SMU doesn't take a back seat to anyone as they have won 17 of their last 18 games. The Ponies are 14-2-1 ATS as a favorite this year, are 8-1 ATS at home and 10-1-1 ATS in conference play. In the first meeting back on January 12, Cincinnati won 66-64 but failed to cover (-4.5) and I liked what I saw from SMU in that game as they were +10 on the boards.
Ben Burns
Minnesota -255
The Wild are obviously pretty heavy favorites here. A little higher than I'd normally prefer to go. That said, given the schedule and venue, I believe this is a matchup that they win eight times out of 10. While the Wings are 11-16 away from Detroit, the Wild are 18-7 at home. The Wings get outscored by a 3.2 to 2.5 average margin on the road. The Wild outscore teams by a dominant 3.4 to 2.0 average here at Minnesota. The Wings, who are playing their second game in two days, are just 6-13 in the second half of the season overall. The Wild, who had yesterday off and who are 14-6 against Eastern Conf. teams, are 13-5 in the second half. The home team won both meetings last season, the Wild winning 3-1 here at Minnesota. While anything can certainly happen in a hockey game, I see little reason not to expect another win for the home team here.
Rocketman
Michigan @ Indiana
Play: Indiana -2.5
The Michigan Wolverines travel to Indiana to take on the Hoosiers on Sunday afternoon. Michigan is 15-9 SU overall this year while Indiana comes in with a 15-10 SU overall record on the season. Michigan is 0-6 SU and 1-5 ATS this year when playing on the road. Indiana is 13-3 SU at home this year where they are scoring 87.2 points per game this year. Indiana is 81.3 points per game overall this season. Indiana is 15-1 SU at home vs Michigan last 16 games. We'll recommend a small play on Indiana today!
Buster Sports
Temple at Memphis
Play: Memphis -6
Memphis is home to the Temple Owls today and they have some fresh revenge on their minds from a 77-66 loss at Temple on January 25th. Memphis really needs this victory with games upcoming at SMU and at Cincinnati. They are sitting on the tournament bubble with an 18-7 record, so losing at home to anyone is not an option. Temple has struggled on the road this season and they have lost six of their last seven games on the road. At 13-12 they are playing out the string and waiting for their chance at the AAC tourney in Hartford. Memphis are 13-2 at home and at the time of this writing are laying 6 points to the Owls. Our numbers have Memphis at 8 1/2 so we will be more than happy to lay the points with the Tigers.
David Banks
New Orleans @ Sacramento
Pick: Sacramento -3.5
When the Sacramento Kings decide to play, they can be dangerous. Kings head coach Dave Joerger is hoping that his team will play more like it did against Golden State last week when Sacramento upset the NBA’s top team, winning 109-106 in overtime. On Sunday night, the Kings will host New Orleans, another Western Conference team that has had its share of struggles.
The game will feature two of the league’s most talented big men – New Orleans’ Anthony Davis and Sacramento’s DeMarcus Cousins. Both stand 6-11. Both lead their respective teams in scoring and rebounding and both played college basketball at Kentucky. Cousins is fourth in the NBA in scoring averaging 28.1 points per game. Davis is fifth (27.8 ). Davis is sixth in the league in rebounding averaging 12.2 while Cousins comes in at No. 11 (10.6). Cousins also leads the Kings in assists per game (4.7).
What both big men need is support. For New Orleans, that will come from guard Jrue Holiday who scores 15.6 points a game and forward Terrence Jones (11.4 ppg). For the Kings, Rudy Gay (18.7 ppg) and Darren Collison (13 ppg) will provide the support that Cousins needs. The Kings bench has been performing admirably as of late. Veterans Ty Lawson and Matt Barnes along with Anthony Tolliver are providing Sacramento with quality minutes. New Orleans lost four games in a row heading into a week full of games against Phoenix, Utah, and Minnesota before squaring off with Sacramento.
Brad Wilton
Life without Lindsey, Scottie Lindsey that is, has proven troublesome for Northwestern. Since Lindsey has been sidelined with mono, the Wildcats have been run off the court at Purdue, and have lost as the home favorite to Illinois to drop to 18-6 on the year.
Another loss seems likely today in Madison, as Wisconsin has strung together 8 wins in a row to improve to 21-3 on the season! Problem is, the oddsmakers have made things tough on Bucky Badger, as the Madison Men are just 2-5 against the spread their last 7 games - all in the favored role.
Northwestern looked like a lock to make their first-ever Big Dance not that long ago, and now things are not as solid as they were before Lindsey went down, but I will take the generous impost out for a spin today, as I think we will see a slower paced game that will make it harder for Wisconsin to pull away from the desperate visitor.
The Wildcats are still 7-3 against the spread on the road this year, and they have given the Badgers some close contests of late, splitting the last 4 meetings straight up, while covering in 3 of the 4.
Wisconsin prevails, but this one stays close for the 40 minutes.
Northwestern a live dog today.
2* NORTHWESTERN
Chris Jordan
My free play is on the San Antonio Spurs over the hapless New York Knicks. It's a shame Knicks owner James Dolan is blinded by his own ego. But that's what happens when the guy at the top can't control his personal issues, it affects everyone and everything around him.
So as long as he is contributing to the distractions and heartache off the court, the Knicks will continue to suffer on the court.
The entire atmosphere and environment surrounding the Knicks is no good right now, and the players are the ones suffering. Now in come the San Antonio Spurs (41-12), with the second-best record in the NBA, including a 22-6 mark on the road, and they won't show any mercy on the Knicks (22-33), who have lost four in a row.
The Spurs, who are on a 6-2 ATS run versus Atlantic Division foes, swept the regular-season series last year, including a 10-point win inside Madison Square Garden.
San Antonio has won two straight and five of six. It is 2-1 on its annual rodeo trip, as it's displaced from home every winter to make way for the rodeo in town. This is the midway point, and after an eight-point win in Philly and an 11-point win in Motown, the Spurs will shine in the basketball mecca.
New York's four-game skid has seen it allow 120.5 points per game, in losses to the Cavaliers, Lakers, Clippers and Nuggets. And all of those setbacks were at home.
I'll lay the chalk with the Spurs, as they take advantage of a team that will continue to suffer terribly as long as its owner and president (Phil Jackson) believe they're the heart and soul of the team, and not the players.
5* SPURS
Jack Brayman
I'm playing the Toronto Raptors as my free play tonight, as they come into their home matchup with the Detroit Pistons well rested after having three days off. Meanwhile, the Pistons just lost by 11 at home on Friday night to the visiting San Antonio Spurs.
I'm thinking this is a great spot to expect the Raptors to blast a team, especially when they're in dire need of a blowout win.
The Raptors have lost nine of their past 13 games, and are a dismal 10-12 since Jan. 1, after losing 112-109 to the Minnesota Timberwolves on Wednesday in Minneapolis. Toronto, which was tabbed in the preseason as the Cleveland Cavaliers' No. 1 contender this season, would love nothing more than to right this ship over the last week before the All-Star Break.
Toronto is on win streaks of 3-1 SU and 2-1 ATS against the Pistons. I'll bank on a long-overdue blowout victory by the Raptors here.
1* RAPTORS
Eric Schroeder
My freebie for today is on the New Orleans Pelicans. They're catching points against the Sacramento Kings, who bring their first two-game winning home win streak since December into this game.
Streak over.
One of my favorite players in the NBA is Boogie Cousins, but man he is out of sorts right now. I wish the best for him, and think he needs to get out of Sacramento - quickly.
He'll face his Olympic buddy Anthony Davis today, and something tells me the Pelican's big man is going off today. Davis is in after scoring 42 points in a 122-106 victory in Minnesota, where New Orleans tipped off the first of a three-game Western trip leading to the All-Star Break.
The win against Minnesota snapped a five-game road losing streak for New Orleans. Now the Pelicans will keep things rolling against the Kings.
4* PELICANS
Brandon Lee
Temple vs. Memphis
Play: Memphis -6
I'm backing the Tigers at home against the Owls. These two teams recently played at Temple on 1/25. The Owls won that contest at home 77-66. Memphis allowed Temple to shoot 48.1% from the field. Not only will the Tigers be out for revenge, but they bring a different type of intensity on the defensive end at home. Memphis is only giving up 63.0 ppg at home this season, holding opponents to just 37.9% from the field and only 29.8% from long distance. Helping matters here is the fact that Temple comes in lacking confidence on the offensive side of the ball, as they were just held to 50 points on 30.9% shooting at home against SMU. It's also worth noting that Memphis is 13-2 at home, while the Owls are just 5-7 away from home.
Jeff Allen
Michigan vs. Indiana
Play: Indiana -2½
The Hoosiers have lost four of five with the only win a triple OT war with Penn State. The Wolverines pounded Indiana in Ann Arbor 90-60 and couldn't miss anywhere on the floor that night. That said, Michigan a different animal on the road where they are 0-4 and playing in one of the toughest venues in the Big Ten. Indiana returns the favor here.
SPORTS WAGERS
Montreal +130 over BOSTON
The Bruins are 2-0 and have scored 10 times since they fired Claude Julien but it’s not as pretty as it seems. The Bruins Corsi numbers have dropped dramatically over those two games and while it’s a very small sample size, it does reveal that when “the cat is away, the mice will play”. The Bruins may have more freedom to create and open things up but that also leaves them vulnerable. Indeed the B’s are producing but they have also gone nine straight games in which they have allowed three goals or more. What’s even more interesting is that the Bruins are 1-8 in the tail end of back-to-backs.
Playing in Boston may just be what the doctor ordered for the Canadiens. Montreal seems to play its best hockey against the B’s and with a fully healthy lineup here, the Habs figure to be sharp. Montreal is 4-1-1 in the tail end of back-to-backs after a loss. They actually played a really good game against St. Louis last night despite losing by two. The Blues were under siege for most of the third period but added an empty netter with time running out. The Canadiens had the Coyotes under siege too on Thursday night so Montreal may be on the verge of getting hot again. The Habs are 1-1 in their past two games after losing four straight but they played outstanding hockey in both games. Watching the Habs, one can sense that this is just a minor funk that they are in. Their intensity level was down for a few games but they have it back and they’re ready to go off with a big win and we’re suggesting this is it.
SPORTS WAGERS
MEMPHIS -6 over Temple
The Tigers have had nothing but trouble against the Owls for years and that includes a game earlier this season when Memphis entered the Owls den as a one-point dog and lost easily by 11. The last time the Tigers defeated the Owls by more than the allotted points here was seven games ago back in February of 2014. However, this is the time of year in which teams that have no chance of having their ticket punched to the Big Dance pack it in and mentally prepare for the conference tournament. Winning the conference tournament gets your ticket punched too and that’s all that Temple is concerned about. This past Thursday, the Owls hosted #25 SMU and instead of putting up a fight, they quit about halfway through the second half after putting up a mere 18 points in the first half. What makes that meek effort so concerning is that the Owls were at home against a ranked conference enemy and now they are on the road against a motivated host. Additionally, the Owls have just two wins in nine road games and one of those victories occurred 2½ months ago. From our vantage point, it would be unwise to get behind the Owls right now becauase they look dead.
We’re not crazy about the Tigers so let’s get that out of the way right off the bat. The Tigers are a team that loves to beat up on dregs and one would be hard-pressed to come up with their best victory this year. The Tigers have not beaten nor have they played a ranked team. They lost to Ole Miss, Providence and SMU. Perhaps their best win this season was against Oklahoma and while the Sooners have great potential, this year they have mostly been a reckless, inexperienced team. Memphis is definitely not being invited to the Dance via an at-large bid so they, too, will have to win the conference tournament to get in.
The difference however, is that Memphis is jockeying for a strong position in the conference tournament. They are 8-4 in the conference (18-7 overall) and they’re also 13-2 at home. Finishing strong and securing a #2 or #3 seed in the conference tournament is important for Memphis because it will assure them an easier opponent to begin. Memphis enters this game in fourth place in the AAC standings, just one victory behind Houston for third and one victory away from equaling last year’s win total. Though Memphis is four games ahead of Temple in the AAC standings, it is just five spots ahead of the Owls in the RPI. The Tigers 18-7 overall record is one of the country’s more misleading but we’re throwing everything right out the window here. This wager is based on focus and motivation and in that regard, Memphis figures to bring everything they have here in Tubby Smith’s first year in the Mid-South. Smith has always stressed finishing strong to set the tone for the tournament and to give players a good feeling for next season. The Tigers have a pulse left while the Owls do not and if Temple plays the same lazy game they have been playing on most nights recently, this one will not be close.
LOYOLA-CHICAGO +9 over Wichita St
The Shockers are undoubtedly one of the name brand programs among the mid-majors. They are also classified as a perennial contender for March Madness qualification. While we can speak about the accolades and achievements of Wichita State over the past decade all day long, we will spare the introduction. The bottom line is the Shockers are a team that will impose a premium against any opponent in the Valley and it is something we must fade at the right time and we trust this is that time. You see, Wichita State has been exceptional form, as they have won seven games in a row and 13 of its past 14 so its stock is through the roof. We have covered this phenomenon in greater detail in our podcasts but what this essentially does is set up Shockers’ backers to get burned because inflated points are in play. Despite being 22-4 SU, the Shockers are just 11-11 ATS, which is further proof that fading them at the right time will pay off.
Loyola-Chicago enters this one as an excellent candidate to exploit that narrative. First off, the Ramblers enter with depleted stock. Loyola-Chicago has lost their previous three and lost outright as a favorite in their last two games. Though public perception of this outfit is down at the moment, we must highlight that Loyola Chicago is 11-2 at home this season. The Ramblers have taken down the likes of San Diego State in Chicago with an outright victory. Furthermore, the Ramblers have had some of the worst luck in America. While Loyola-Chicago has played a schedule comparable to that of Wichita State in terms of strength, the Ramblers own a luck quotient that places them 328th across the land. We have already covered in greater detail what the luck quotient entails, but what can be inferred from it is that this team is been close in so many games and they are in line for more wins and perhaps a few big ones at that. Despite all the advantages Wichita State sports, the Ramblers are more efficient in field goal percentage. Though the Shockers have the better defense and score more points per game, the Ramblers are smart with their shots and it figures to provide them with an effective strategy to hone in this contest. Loyola-Chicago already covered against this team earlier this season on the road as a 15-point pup when they came in under the number in a 12-point loss. Now, the Ramblers get the Shockers at home and they’re being offered an abundance of points that provides us with a big window to work with.
Cincinnati +4 over SMU
What an interesting game this is. The Selection Committee may have no mercy on the loser here because the AAC has been such a weak conference this season, thus both these squads have padded records and skewed numbers because of it. As it stands right now, both Cinci and SMU are in but a loss here followed by one or two more losses and the loser here may be getting an invite to the NIT. The winner here is almost guaranteed an at-large bid. The Bearcats have already defeated SMU once this year by a mere two points back in Cincinnati exactly one month ago. The Bearcats also have a win over Iowa State, Penn State and Xavier, not to mention a 22-2 overall record.
The Mustangs on the other hand have zero notable wins unless one considers a victory over Pitt notable. SMU played Michigan early in the year and got steamrolled by 22 points. They played USC and lost and played Boise State and lost that one too. The Mustangs are in much more trouble than this market realizes because nothing stands out in their portfolio. To recap, SMU has two losses to unranked teams (Michigan and Boise State). SMU only has one top-50 KenPom win (TCU) while Cinci has three. If you like good wins, Cinci has more than SMU. If you hate bad losses, Cinci has fewer than SMU. If you're into computers, the computers prefer Cinci over SMU. Under pressure this season, the Mustangs have not responded once so why would anyone trust them to not only respond and win but to win by a margin. Take the points
Will Rogers
Montreal vs. Boston
Pick: Montreal
The set-up: The 31-18-8 Montreal Canadiens are in Boston to take on the 28-23-6 Bruins on Sunday night. Bruce Cassidy was named coach of the Boston Bruins after Claude Julien was fired Tuesday. He coached the Washington Capitals (2002-03) and was in his first season as an assistant under Julien, after spending five seasons as coach of Providence, the Bruins' AHL affiliate. The Bruins have responded with a 6-3 win over San Jose on Thursday and 4-3 last night over Vancouver (both at home).
Montreal: The Canadiens lead the Atlantic Division with 70 points but will be playing their eighth game in 13 days (sure need that upcoming “bye week”). Montreal is just 2-4-1 thus far during the stretch, after last night's 4-2 home loss to the Blues. Montreal’s offense has gone cold in February, producing just five goals in the team's five losses. However, Brendan Gallagher has accompanied the team to Boston and could return Sunday night after missing just over a month with a broken hand. He has 18 points in 39 games this season but 18 points in 19 career games against the Bruins.
Boston: The Bruins' power play is 10-for-23 over the last seven games and teh question is, can Boston maintain the sudden surge of energy its shown since the coaching change. The Bruins moved back into the third spot in the division with Saturday's 4-3 victory over the Canucks with 62 points. Anton Khudobin turned in a 29-save performance in goal last night but Tuukka Rask (26-13-4, 2.32 GAA & .910 save percentage) should be back in net for this one.
The pick: Yes, Montreal hasn't won two straight since early January but the Canadiens have won nine straight games in the Boston area, eight at TD Garden and one at Gillette Stadium in last year's Winter Classic. Good enough for me.
Jeffrey James
Minnesota Wild -250
Very difficult spot here for Detroit. They played on Saturday in Columbus in a 5:00 est game, now they have to travel and play a 3:00 est game on Sunday in Minnesota. The Wild are very strong at home this year and they are 5-2 on Sunday games. Detroit is just 1-6 on Sunday games and they are just 9-14 against winning teams. The Wings have recently lose a solid defenseman to injury as well which will hurt their chances to slow down the powerful Wild offense.