Free Picks for Sunday, January 29th, 2017, from some of the nations best and worst handicappers
DAVE COKIN
76ERS VS. BULLS
PLAY: 76ERS +6.5
There’s really very little need for extraneous analysis here, so I won’t be pretentious and try to make this sound like it’s more than it is to try and impress anyone.
Philadelphia is improving and the 76ers appear to have terrific team chemistry. They really fight hard virtually every game and are a young team on the rise.
The Bulls are fractured right now, and it sure looks like they’re either going to have to deal one of their stars or fire the coach. The latter option is usually the choice in these situations, but canning Fred Hoiberg would leave management on the hook for a whole lotta bucks, and I don’t know if they want to go that route. Regardless, the team is broken at this point, and I’m not sure all the king’s horses and all the king’s men can put the Bulls together again, at least not with their current configuration.
Maybe today’s the day this Chicago team escapes its mental dungeon, but I make this team a pure fade until some evidence suggests otherwise. I’ll take the 76ers plus the points.
Scott Spreitzer
NC State vs. Louisville
Play: NC State +14
Louisville couldn't have played any better than they did in their 106-51 win over Pitt last time out. The Cardinals made over 58% of their FGA, including 54% of their 3-pointers. But today they're facing a Wolfpack team led by Dennis Smith, Jr., and doing so without two important backcourt players. Quentin Snider is obviously the most important of the two guards sidelined by injury, and we expect NC State to take advantage. Smith leads five players averaging over 11 ppg for the Pack and he's also become a premier disher, setting up open looks for others with 137 assists in 21 games. As a team, the Pack have been excellent taking care of the basketball of late, committing a grand total of just 44 turnovers in their last four games, combined. And we note that under HC Mark Gottfried, the Wolfpack are 35-24 ATS on the ACC road.
Mike Lundin
Rockets vs. Pacers
Play: Rockets -145
The Houston Rockets have won just two of their last five games, going 1-4 ATS during that stretch. They won 123-118 as a 6.5-point favorite at Philadelphia on Friday, and the Rockets are 15-5 ATS in their last 20 games following a ATS loss and 6-2 ATS in their last eight road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
The Indiana Pacers are coming off back-to-back wins, but Friday's 115-111 OT victory against Sacramento went to overtime and this will mark their third game in four nights.
The Rockets are 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings in the series and the favorite is 6-0 ATS in the last six.
LV Traders
Virginia at Villanova
Pick: Virginia
We had a huge Saturday going 15-6 but there's no time for celebration... instead let's focus on destroying the Sunday card! As for your free play Sunday, we're going with the Virginia Cavaliers in one of the marquee games of the day. Two great and equal teams square off in a March-like match-up in Philadelphia. Villanova has one of the best offenses nationally and it goes against Virginia's top-notch defense. Look for Tony Bennett to force the Cats outside and he won't let Hart or Jenkins beat him. This is going to be a tight one and all possessions will be valued late.
Jim Feist
Wizards at Pelicans
Pick: Under
Fifth road game over the last six contests for Washington. The Wizards are on a 3-game win streak playing some defense, 2-1 under the total. The Under is 7-1 in the Wizards last 8 vs. a team with a losing straight up record. New Orleans is fourth in the NBA in field goal shooting defense, 12-4 under the total against the Eastern Conference. The Under is 10-2 in the last 12 meetings, including 9-2 under the total when they meet at New Orleans.
Buster Sports
Michigan at Michigan St
Play: Over 138.5
Michigan St has had a real rough season and they are in real trouble of not making the Big Dance. They will probably have to win the Big Ten Tournament to make it. Michigan has had some trouble themselves and at 14-7 on the year they are in as much trouble of making the Big Dance. Last game the Wolverines beat Indiana and scored 90 points. They have really found their offense of late and have now shot over 50% from the field in their last 5 games. Michigan St has had trouble on offense for most of the year but they should be able to score at home today against their main rival. Michigan on the road this year are allowing an average of 73.9 points per game. Michigan seems to be distracted on the Defensive end when on the road and today should be no different. The oddsmaker has this total at 138 1/2 at the time of this writing and our numbers have it at 141 1/2. So the value puts us on the OVER. Backing our selection is the fact that the OVER is 10-2 in Wolverines last 12 games and the fact that the OVER is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings between the clubs.
Mike Rose
Michigan at Michigan St
Play: Michigan St -2.5
We picked on Sparty the last time they took to their home floor versus Purdue and came out victorious. Many will look to do the same thing in this spot with a hot Michigan team storming East Lansing looking to put an end to a four game losing streak to their hated rivals. In the immortal words of Lee Corso, “not so fast my friend!”
Big Blue has been a completely different team when away from the comforts of Crisler Arena, and I expect that to once again be the case in this spot. The Wolverines have failed to cover in all three games it was lined a short road chalk. It’s also come up short against the spread each of the last two times it was dogged on the road up to three points. The Spartans have already been defeated on their home floor twice this season. Another, and they can likely kiss an at-large big to the dance goodbye. There’s still plenty of time to turn this ship around, and I’ll be banking on Izzo taking steps to do just that in this crucial home tilt on Sunday afternoon.
Sleepyj
AFC / NFC Under 82
I see this game only having three angles...Trying to put together a actual handicap takes some serious magic...Either fade the coach that lost last year or play the total.....I like the Under here....I think these players had about enough of this circus show already with the Pro Bowl....I would be willing to bet if the sportsbooks across the globe pulled this game off the board, the NFL would be pulling the Pro Bowl from the schedule....They play no defense at all in these games and that alone sells people on the over..My gut feeling and that's all this is, is that the players look to go vanilla and run the clock out....Let's not forget if they decide to kick the Ex Pts today we have a good chance of them missing a few. I think they just play around and fall over when they get touched...I'd like to find a sack prop for this game..I wonder when the last time a QB was actually sacked in the pro bowl....Small wager on the under for action....I'm excited to read some of the handicaps on this game today.
Brandon Lee
South Florida vs. Cincinnati
Play: South Florida +24½
The Bulls are worth a look here as a massive road dog against the Bearcats. The fact that USF comes in having lost 8 straight and fresh off a 21-point home loss to UConn, has them way undervalued here. Cincinnati on the other hand is way overvalued, as they have won 11 straight and are off a huge win over Xavier. That's a big reason why I like the Bulls, as I think the Bearcats are due for a letdown here, as they really put everything they had into beating the Musketeers. Plus, USF is 7-0 ATS in their last 7 road games after 2 straight losses by 10 or more and Cincinnati is 4-14 ATS in their last 18 home games after a home game where both teams scored 75 or more points.
Jimmy Boyd
Thunder vs. Cavs
Play: Cavs -7
I like this spot for Cleveland at home against the Thunder. The Cavs were finally able to snap out of their funk with a 124-116 win at home over the Nets. While they failed to cover as a 17-point favorite against Brooklyn, that game was much more lopsided than the final score would indicate. I look for the Cleveland to carry over that strong showing with a big time effort here at home against Westbrook and the Thunder.
This is a tough spot for OKC, who is back on the road after just one game at home following a lengthy 6-game road trip. Cleveland on the other hand has had the luxury of playing 3 straight at home. Plus, the Thunder lost a big piece of the rotation with the injury to Kanter. I look for OKC to struggle to keep up offensively in this one.
SPORTS WAGERS
NORTHWESTERN -6½ over Indiana
The Hoosiers opened the year with a thrilling OT victory over #2 Kansas. Five games later, Indiana would knock off then #3 North Carolina, 76-67 and it appeared as though this was going to be a big year for the Hoosiers. Indiana has played a difficult schedule but after those two impressive wins very early on, the Hoosiers have since lost to Butler, Louisville, Nebraska, Wisconsin, Maryland and Michigan. Aside from the loss to the ‘Huskers, none of the others are anything to hang your head over and it’s worth noting that Indiana could have come out on top in at least three and perhaps even four of them. The Hoosiers lost by five, four, seven and three points to Butler, Nebraska, Wisky and Maryland respectively. Subsequently, things would take a turn for the worse on the Hoosiers and things would take another turn for the worse once again, which brings us to this game, where the Hoosiers are getting far too much respect because of some impressive wins and impressive losses too.
Last week, Indiana lost forward OG Anunoby for the rest of the season. Against the Wolverines, Indiana junior guard James Blackmon Jr. was injured and will be out indefinitely with a lower leg injury. Blackmon leads the Hoosiers in scoring and is also fourth in the Big Ten with an average of 17.6 points per game. Anunoby was the fourth leading scorer on the team and the second leading rebounder. Without Anunoby, the Hoosiers lost to Michigan by 30 points in their last game. Blackmon was injured late in that game but now the Hoosiers have to adjust to being without two of their best players. Indiana’s defense had its worst performance of the season and one of the worst performances by a major conference team in league play in the last decade in that 30-point blowout loss to the Wolverines on Thursday. We completely understand that injuries are factored into the number and we usually don’t even mention them because of it but this one is different. There is not enough compensation here given to the Hoosiers simply because the Wildcats are a team that this market cannot and will not trust when spotting points. Furthermore, teams’ are expected to rebound off a horrible loss but we’re not buying that angle here. Indiana looked confused without Anunoby and there is not enough adjustment time without he and without its leading scorer.
Believe it or not, Northwestern is the only team in a Power-5 conference that has never made it to the Big Dance in March. That’s actually hard to believe. Furthermore, the Wildcats do not have a signature win this year despite a 17-4 record. The Big Cats have lost to Butler, Notre Dame, Michigan State and Minnesota while their best win occurred against either Dayton or Wake Forest. Northwestern has yet to beat a team in conference play that’s even considered a top-50 team per KenPom. Four of the Wildcats’ next five games will be against such teams, and it’s well within the realm of possibility that Northwestern slips to 7-6 in the Big Ten by February 16th, the day after Maryland comes to town. At least two wins during this five-game stretch are needed, but three would be ideal. A loss to Indiana and the Wildcats are immediately up against the wall, even more so when you consider the rematches with Indiana and Purdue in the final days of the season. There is excitement in the air among the fan base and now Welsh-Ryan Arena has finally turned into a home-court advantage. The joint will be rocking today but here’s what’s interesting and the real reason we’re interested in the favorite. On Friday and BEFORE Blackmon was injured, Kenpom had the hosts as a six-point favorite. The compensation for the loss of the Hoosiers leading scorer is only a half point and that is not right. We’re absolutely on board with fading the Wildcats when the timing is right but it’s not right just yet. The chalk is underpriced here.
DETROIT MERCY +5 over Wisc-Green Bay
Yesterday we mentioned how this was the first weekend without football since late August and we were able to capitalize on an overzealous football betting market looking to get involved in this sport. Saturday was a difficult day for recognizable programs that get heavy public backing and there is likely going to be much of the same today. We promise you that this game sticks out like a sore thumb and it’s not hidden among 60 college games like it otherwise might be on a Saturday college basketball card.
Two days ago, Wisc-Green Bay opened as a 10-point dog to Oakland. By game time that line had dropped to -7½, meaning that the books were pounded with heavy underdog money. The general public was correct, as Green Bay jumped out to an early 12-point lead and never looked back in a rather easy eight-point road victory. The final score of 80-72 was flattering to the Golden Grizzlies. Trust us when we tell you it wasn’t that close. The oddsmakers grossly undervalued Green Bay or grossly overvalued Oakland but don’t expect them to make the same mistake twice in three days. We should mention that aforementioned game was on Friday night, which was a typically slow day in college basketball. There were only a handful of games to choose from and the Oakland/Green Bay game attracted a ton of action. Those that cashed or even ripped up their tickets saw Green Bay destroy the Golden Grizzlies and now that same team takes a perceived huge step down in class when facing the 4-17 Detroit Mercy Titans.
Just to recap, Green Bay Phoenix is coming off an impressive showing on the road just two days ago in Oakland. A ton of people cashed a ticket on them. Two days later, that same team that whacked Oakland and is second in the Horizon League and that is very fresh in the minds of those that watched them (game was televised on ESPN), are a small road favorite at Detroit Mercy, the team that is in dead last in the conference with an overall mark of 4-17. We’re not going to get into the numbers here because they are not relevant. What’s more relevant is that the books are taking a “position” here on the home dog and we’re almost always interested in being on the same side as the books. Green Bay is extremely likely to show up in body only here. They head home after this for two games capped off with a huge game against Valparaiso next Saturday, a team they lost to by 34 points just 13 days ago. The Phoenix were jacked up on Friday night and brought with them a ton of energy and intensity. This number strongly suggests that they’ll bring a fraction of that intensity here and likely lose outright.
Note: this one tips off at 2:00 PM EST and we’re pretty sure a better number is forthcoming so we are going to wait until after 12:00 PM to make this wager. We’ll update this and tweet it out if and when we make this wager.
Northern Kentucky +10 over VALPARAISO
We’re going to go back into the Horizon League with this play and apply the exact same strategy as the one above only this one might even be more enticing for the unsuspecting. Valparaiso is a firmly recognized name in this conference as the perennial powerhouse. Currently, Valpo sits atop the standings with a 7-1 conference mark and an overall record of 17-4. The Crusaders were a 9-point home favorite over Wright State in their last game and won by 15. The game before, they were a 13½-point home favorite over UIC and won by 31. The game before that, Valpo was a 9-point home choice again, this time over Wisc-Green Bay and won by 34. The Crusaders have barely broken a sweat in January with six straight wins while covering the number in five straight. Now the Crusaders are almost the exact same price against Northern Kentucky as they were against Wisc-Green Bay and Wright State after whacking that pair? Do you see the problem with that? We do.
We could walk into every sportsbook in Las Vegas and ask every single person we see to name Northern Kentucky's last name or mascot and we’d be shocked if one in 500 were able to do so. The same applies to the readers of this right now. One in 500 might even be generous. Again, we point to a small afternoon card with no football and just two afternoon NBA games. Of the bunch, this one will have mass appeal and it’s going to get heavily played by the general public. Hell, even we’re tempted to lay the points because it looks so damn easy.
Look it, the oddsmakers did not overlook this game. They didn’t just throw a number up there without carefully considering the amount of interest it will attract. Valpo is a very recognizable mid-major program with a great record and pedigree playing a completely unrecognizable program with zero pedigree. We’re not going to sit here and suggest we know a lot about Northern Kentucky because like the rest of the betting world, we do not. However, what we are able to recognize is market propensities, things that look too good to be true and the very clever numbers that oddsmakers entice you into betting. All of the above applies here. Incidentally, NKU’s last name is Norse in case someone asks, “Who ya got”?
Note: this one tips off at 2:30 and we’re pretty sure a better number is forthcoming so we are going to wait until after 12:00 PM to make this wager. We’ll update this and tweet it out if and when we make this wager.
Will Rogers
Stanford vs. California
Pick: Stanford
The set-up: Stanford (11-9 / 3-5 in Pac 12) and California (14-6 / 5-3 Pac 12) both figure to be well-rested Sunday when they renew their rivalry at Haas Pavilion in Berkeley, as each school has had eight days off.
Stanford: 6-8 forward Reid Travis (16.6 & 8.9) has missed four of the last six games with a right shoulder injury but with the long layoff, hopes to return against the Bears. The 6-9 Humphrey (9.3 & 5.7) is Stanford's only other regular contributor up front, while guard Pickens (12.8 ) joins Travis as Stanford's lone double digit scorers.
California: The Bears have won four of their last five games with the only loss coming when the 6-11 Rabb (15.1 & 10.6) was held to four points on 2-of-10 shooting in an 86-63 loss to Oregon on Jan. 19. However, he bounced back with 18 points in a 69-58 victory against Oregon State. Then again, is Cal is to compete with Arizona, Oregon and UCLA atop the Pac-12 standings, the Bears will need more consistency from their preseason All-American.
The pick: Cal guards Moore (14.4) and Bird (13.9) join Rabb in double digits for the Bears, who are the better team. It would be huge if Travis was able to return for Stanford but note that forward Michael Humphrey is averaging 14.8 points and 9.2 rebounds over his last five games, Stanford has won six of the last eight meeting in this bitter rivalry and I'll take the points with the Cardinal.
Wunderdog
New York @ Atlanta
Pick: Under 210
New York broke a string of three straight UNDERS in its 110-107 win over Charlotte on Friday as Carmelo Anthony scored 18 points with 11 rebounds even though he shot only 8-for-26 from the field. Meanwhile, Atlanta suffered a humiliating home loss to Washington by a 112-86 score in a game that went UNDER by 16.5 points. The Hawks shot a paltry 36.1 percent, including only nine of 31 from beyond the arc. Kent Bazemore led the Hawks with 15 points and Dwight Howard added 12 points and 13 rebounds. Two of the three meetings have stayed UNDER this season, including an overtime game on Dec. 28. The Knicks have gone UNDER four of their last five road games and 19 of their last 26 Sunday games.
Chip Chirimbes
Rockets at Pacers
Play: Pacers +3.5
The big story in Houston this season is of course James Harden who posted his second triple-double with at least 50 points last time out against Philadelphia Friday. Mike DiAntoni deserves much of the credit as the Rockets reached the 20-games above .500 mark. Indiana is starting to make a move of their own winning their last two and are 17-6 straight-up at home. Huston is 0-5 ATS after a straight-up win and they are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 meetings in Indiana.