Brad Powers
Villanova -5
This is what I call an inside/out handicap. If you look at these two teams most recent games, they were both very misleading. First, Villanova just got upset by Marquette earlier in the week (which Top 10 team didn't get upset this week?). It may have been the most leading game I've charted in the last 3 weeks. The Wildcats led by 15 at the break and still led by 15 with 9 minutes left in the game. They would only score a total of 4 points in the final 6:40 of the game and would lose by 2. In that game Villanova only shot 40% from the field (worst mark of the season) including an incredibly poor 6 of 34 (17.6%) from 3-point range. They also allowed 50% FG on defense (tied for 2nd worst mark of the season).
On the other side, Virginia deserved to beat Notre Dame earlier in the week (entire world was on the Irish in that game). However, the 17-point blowout margin is not how the game played out at all as the Cavaliers only led by 1 at halftime and still only led by 5 with 5:00 left. In fact, the 17-point final was the largest of the entire game. They held ND to only 16.7% from 3-point range, by far the lowest ND had all season.
So we have one team that is over-valued because of a big blowout win and another that is under-valued off a very misleading upset loss. Finally, Villanova is on a 12-1 ATS run following an outright upset loss and that makes them the play here.
OC Dooley
Wisconsin-Green Bay / Detroit Over 165
This is in part a reaction to a pair of Friday results where both sides stayed "under" the total. Green Bay traveled to Oakland University and pulled off an underdog outright 80-72 victory which stayed under (160') even though Green Bay for the FIRST TIME all season had a pair of starters register "double doubles" in scoring and rebounding. Meanwhile on Friday the University of Detroit went to OVERTIME but a 73-69 game ended up staying "under" (151) as the Titans amazingly missed 20 different attempts from the free-throw line. The last time Green Bay faced Detroit in this "series" a HIGH SCORING 86-85 shootout stayed "under" (185) a grossly inflated spot, so we have more wiggle-room so to speak today. Green Bay has played SEVEN IN A ROW OVER ON THE ROAD when off an upset win as an underdog. In the past THREE YEARS when facing good teams (win percentage between 60-and-80) Detroit has gone 13-3 OVER with the offense averaging 83 points and the defense "allowing" on average 89 big ones
David Banks
Stanford @ California
Pick: Stanford +7.5
The Stanford Cardinal, winners of three straight before their loss to Oregon on Saturday, will face a very good Cal squad on Sunday night. Stanford’s schedule has been somewhat of a nightmare. Prior to their three-game win streak were consecutive defeats to No. 7 Arizona, USC (17-4), and No. 8 UCLA. Now, they face a Bears team that is 14-6 overall and its four conference losses were all to ranked teams.
If Cal could pull off a few wins over the Pac-12’s elite, the Bears could be a dangerous NCAA tournament team. As of now, they have beaten the teams they should. They have lost to USC, UCLA, Arizona, and Oregon in Pac-12 play. Cal has one of the best big men in all of college basketball. Sophomore Ivan Rabb is a 6-11 sophomore who elected to stay in school instead of entering last year’s NBA draft. Rabb is averaging 15.1 points and 10.6 rebounds per game, both team highs.
Rabb isn’t the only talented Cal player either. Jabari Bird (13.9) and Charlie Moore (14.4) can both score and the Bears are huge up front with Rabb and 7-foot center Kingsley Okoroh. The Cardinal only score 68.6 points per game, 278th in the nation. Reid Travis, a 6-8 junior, leads the team in scoring (16.6 ppg) and rebounding (8.9 rpg). Dorian Pickins (14.8 ) is the only other Stanford player scoring in double figures. Michael Humphrey, a 6-9 junior averaging 9.3 points and 5.7 rebounds, will be tasked with slowing down the Bears frontcourt.
Vegas Synergy
Purdue vs. Nebraska
Play: Nebraska +7.5
Sunday afternoon college basketball from the Big 10 will not compete with the National Football League on this final Sunday in January. The Boilermakers take a short trip west to the Cornhusker state to square off against league foe Nebraska. The game is schedule to tip at 4:30 PM ET at Pinnacle Bank Arena in Lincoln. The 17-4 Purdue Boilermakers figure to get a test from the 9-11 Nebraska Cornhuskers today in the capital city.
Caleb Swanigan is having a magical sophomore campaign for Purdue and he leads the 20th-ranked Boilermakers in their attempt to win their fourth straight game. Additionally, a win by Purdue today moves their conference mark to a solid 7-2 in Big Ten play. While Swanigan has been the focal point of the Purdue offense the squad has a number of capable scorers. Five Boilermakers score at least 9.6 points per game and the Purdue offense leads the league in 3-point field goal percentage and points per game (82.8 ).
The Huskers are scuffling as of late. Nebraska’s leading scorer, Tai Webster, is the team’s lone player to rank in the top 10 in scoring (18.3 points, third) and assists (3.9, eighth) in the league. Second-leading scorer Glynn Watson Jr. (14.6 points) has fallen off his early season contributions and the result has seen the Cornhuskers lose five straight games dating back to the first week of January when they defeated the Iowa Hawkeyes in overtime right here at Pinnacle Bank Arena
This fits the description of a trap game for Purdue. The Boilermakers face a team desperate to present 40 minutes of solid basketball to their home base. The Boilermakers have three difficult games in front of them (Northwester, at Maryland and Indiana) and should be expected to show themselves today as a team more interested in not losing than pushing the minutes of their starters.
Brandon Shively
Philadelphia vs. Chicago
Pick: Chicago
There are times in the sports betting market that are ‘buy low’ and that is exactly what the Chicago Bulls are today. They are a mid priced home favorite against a 76ers team that the public is backing. (Yes, I just said “that the public is backing”.
The Bulls have lost their last 2 home games. Friday Night, the Bulls only scored 35 points in the 2nd half against the Miami Heat. The Bulls had more turnovers than assist and shot under 42% from the floor. I mean, that is ridiculous to fold like a tent in the 2nd half, coming just two nights after they gave up 41 points in the 4th quarter to the Hawks and lost that game.
So, Chicago has lost their last two home games. Jimmy Butler and D. Wade are going to ignite this team I have to expect. Butler does it every time they lost a few games at home or a losing streak to silence the critics. Well, the Bulls will face the 76ers, who have a very over-achieving month of January. Just about the same time that the public decides to join the party, it’s already too late. The oddsmaker has now adjusted for Philly and in this case, a possible over adjustment as I had this one at -8.
The last time Philly beat Chicago? I know it hasn’t been the last 10 meetings because the Bulls have won ALL of those and 8 of them by more points than what today’s spread is.
The 76ers are coming in off a hard fought loss vs the Rockets. Philly actually shot over 50% from the floor and scored 118 points and still lost. It’s a bad spot for this 76er team as they will be facing a Bulls team that should be as motivated as one could get to give their fans a better showing in Chicago.
Frank Jordan
AFC / NFC Over 78.5
This game is a glorified 7 on 7 practice so the offense will be a flowing and the last few years with a draft and such the scoring has been a little lower on average, but the last three times in was AFC vs. NFC which it has gone back to this year the scoring each year has been over 95 points. Two of the top touchdown passers and three of the top yardage quarterbacks are playing in this game. Three of the top five yardage receivers and two of the top receiving touchdown players are in this game. Three of the top five rushers are in this game. Look for a ton of yards and points in this game as the score is 45-38 which is 83 points and over the total.
Mike Anthony
South Florida vs. Cincinnati
Play: South Florida +25
Cincinnati is coming off a huge 86-78 win at home against heated rival Xavier and it’ll be interesting to see how the Bearcats refocus for this one coming off the emotion victory. Look for a bit of a letdown. While I fully expect them to win this game, I dont see them covering this HUGE number. This has trap game written all over it for the Bearcats, but losing to the Bulls doesn’t seem likely, even though the game could be closer than expected. Cincinnati has been the top performers in the AAC standing 18-2 overall and 7-0 in conference. The Bearcats are one of the best defensive teams in the nation ranking 14th in the country in points allowed, but this group can also light up the scoreboard standing 86th in scoring average. South Florida is highly likely to come up short for their 9th straight time in conference this season, but Vegas is spotting the Bulls a tremendous amount of points to give them the shot at the cover. Even though we like Cincinnati to get the win, this is too many points to pass up on taking the Bulls as a solid value play.
Jack Jones
St. John's +6½
I like the value were are getting here with the St. John's Red Storm as 6.5-point home underdogs to the Xavier Musketeers Sunday. I look for this game to go down to the wire and for the Red Storm to have a legitimate shot of pulling the upset.
Xavier hasn't been playing well enough of late to warrant being a road favorite here. The Musketeers are 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall. They lost at Villanova by 25, at Butler by 5, at home to Creighton by 5 and at Cincinnati by 8 during this stretch. Their lone win came at home over Georgetown by 11.
St. John's is playing much better of late. The Red Storm have won two of their last three, including a 91-86 win at Providence as 7-point dogs last time out. And they've had three days off since last playing on Wednesday, while the Musketeers have had only two days off since their grueling loss to rival Cincinnati on Thursday.
The Red Storm will also be playing with revenge in mind after losing 82-97 at Xavier on January 7th. The Musketeers are 1-5 ATS in their last six road games. The Red Storm are 4-1 ATS in their last five games as a home underdog of 0.5-6.5 points. Xavier is 3-11 ATS off a road loss over the last three seasons.
ASA
Purdue vs. Nebraska
Play: Nebraska +7
Not a great spot for Purdue here. They just won @ Michigan State earlier in the week and they host a very solid Northwestern team on Wednesday. This is the Boilers 2nd straight road game and they’ve struggled a bit away from home in Big Ten play. Before their win over an MSU team that obviously isn’t the MSU of old, Purdue beat Ohio State by 1 and lost @ Iowa. The Boilers shoot an impressive 49% from the field on the year, yet on the road they hit only 42% of their shots. They score 7 fewer PPG away from home and allow nearly 10 more PPG to their opponents. The Huskers started the Big Ten with a 3-0 mark and have since lost 5 in a row. However, they’ve been competitive in all but one of those games losing by 1, 1, 6, 8, and 12 points. They have lost at home by more than 8 points only once this season and that was vs Creighton when the Blue Jays were a full strength and one of the top few teams in the country. This is a huge home game for Nebraska while a bit of a letdown spot for Purdue. The value is also with the Huskers here at +7.5 or +7 as this is the highest number for them at home this year. When they played Creighton they were +4 and at home vs Northwestern they were even. Because of their current losses we’re getting Nebraska at nearly + double digits at home.
Dave Price
Wizards vs. Pelicans
Play: Pelicans +1½
After successfully covering the spread in 8 straight games coming in, the Washington Wizards are clearly starting to get too much respect from the books now. They now find themselves in the rare role of road favorite here against the New Orleans Pelicans. This is a Pelicans team that has beaten two of the best teams in the league at home in the Spurs and Cavaliers over their last 3 games. The Wizards are still just 7-14 on the road this season and shouldn't be favored on the highway here. New Orleans is 30-15 ATS in its last 45 games as a home underdog.
Ray Monohan
Dallas / San Antonio Over 197
The Mavericks and Spurs clash on Sunday and the Over here has value.
San Antonio is the main reasoning behind this Over as this team has so many playmakers. The Spurs have gone 29-17 to the Over this season and are putting in 107 points per game.
They play with pace and will certainly force the Mavericks to play with some speed here on Sunday to keep up.
Some trends to note. Over is 5-1 in Spurs last 6 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. Over is 13-3 in Spurs last 16 overall.
Look for higher scoring game here as the Mavericks simply have to play with a lot of speed and pace if they hope to stay in this one.
Teddy Covers
Rockets vs. Pacers
Play: Pacers +4
There are ample reasons to fade the exhausted, slumping Rockets right now, especially in this pointspread range as road chalk. Houston will be playing their 15th game in the last 25 days. They haven’t had back-2-back days off at any point during that span.
This is the final game of a grueling five game road trip. Key sharpshooter Eric Gordon is dealing with a bad back, no sure thing to suit up today or to be effective if he does. The Rockets defensive energy has been non-existent in recent games and they’ve lost six of their last ten in SU fashion, their worst stretch of the year, while covering only three pointspreads during that span. I’m not convinced this team is going to win at all, let alone winning by margin.
Houston head coach Mike D’Antonio following their tough win at Philly on Friday Night: "Defensively, we're soft sometimes, just soft. Soft on switches. We don't get up on people. We're soft in the moments that win the game. We have to get tougher.” That’s easier said than done, especially given their non-existent time on the practice floor together during this exhausting stretch of games.
While the Rockets are playing Game #15 in this 25 day span, the Pacers have only played ten contests during that same time frame. They’ve been at their best at home: 17-6 SU, demonstrating some legitimate ‘refuse-to-lose’ mentality in their come-from-behind win in OT against the Kings on Friday Night. Look for Indiana to clearly be the fresher of these two teams today, more than capable of pulling off the outright upset.
John Martin
Rockets vs. Pacers
Play: Pacers +3½
The Indiana Pacers are 17-6 at home this season and are showing great value as home dogs to the Houston Rockets here Sunday. The Rockets continue to be road favorites when they shouldn't be. They are just 4-6 SU in their last 10 games overall and are just 3-8 ATS in their last 11 contests. The Rockets will now be playing their 5th straight road game here as they conclude a 5-game trip. Houston is 19-34 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 2 seasons. The home team is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings. The Rockets are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 visits to Indiana.
Tony George
Indiana vs. Northwestern
Play: Indiana +7½
Northwestern getting a lot of respect here and I am not excited by a double digit win in their last game against free falling Nebraska without their second best player in that game. Road games in conference action are never easy no matter the venue this time of the season but I think Indiana competes here. , The Wildcats are off to their best start in conference action in quite some time, and they have ripped off 5 straight wins in the Big 10, first time since 1966 - WOW.
All that said Indian is licking their wounds off a very bad and embarrassing loss to Michigan, their worst in 7 years and you can be assured they will be dialed in here on Sunday. Indiana has a good backcourt with Blackmon and Johnson and I look for them to hang around in this one. The Hoosiers led the Big 10 in scoring, and when that scenario is in play, a team that scores 83 ppg can cover some big numbers, and I am willing to take the big points here.
Jack Brayman
I'm going to play Oklahoma City in the NBA, plus the points at Cleveland against the struggling Cavaliers.
While everyone is waiting for Kyle Korver's transition into the Cavs' system, something Lebron James compared to oatmeal. The King things his defending champs have time, and this lull is no big deal.
But it could be with the Thunder in town, as they enter riding a three-game winning streak and following two days off.
That's mean's a real fresh Russell Westbrook, whose 23 triple-doubles this season are almost halfway to James' career total of 47. Westbrook is one of three players with at least 20 triple-doubles in a season.
Take OKC tonight, as it keeps things close.
2* THUNDER