DAVE COKIN
CAVALIERS AT WARRIORS
PLAY: WARRIORS -5
There’s one stat that speaks volumes about how weird this NBA Championship series has been. Through six games, the points scored for each team are exactly the same. It’s a dead heat. And yet, it’s been one blowout after another, and from an excitement standpoint, probably one of the worst to the wire title series duels I’ve ever seen.
The fan in me is hoping tonight’s Game Seven provides some real excitement. Game Sevens are supposed to be thrillers, aren’t they? perhaps this is where we get the edge of the seat, down to the wire clash that gets decided on the final possession.
As for my analysis, I have a choice. I can take a handful of points with the team that has dominated the last two games, including Game Five on this very court. Or, I can bank on history, which clearly favors the favorite.
I’m not going to pretend I have a great feel for what I think will happen tonight. If this were a regular season game, I’m quite sure I’d be nothing more than an interested spectator. But let’s call it straight, I’m in the sports prediction business and that means I have to come up with something in a game of this magnitude.
So I’m opting to side with history. The home teams in NBA Game Sevens are huge straight up winners. One wouldn’t think it should be as lopsided as it is, as Game Seven means each team has won three games and logic suggests the finale should be a classic duel. Yet it hasn’t been that way.
The Warriors have not lost three games in succession all season. The Cavaliers are trying to achieve history by coming back from a 3-1 series deficit to win the NBA title. I’m also not sure the Cavaliers can play at the same level they have the past two games. I’m also not sure the Warriors are even capable of being as inept as they’ve been in these last two games.
If it sounds like a very shaky case is being presented for the chalk in this game, you’re absolutely correct. I’ll hasten to add that if anyone reading this piece likes the Cavaliers, please don’t let me talk you out of it. But this is where push has come to shove for me, and I’ve decided to give the Warriors my action tonight. Golden State minus the points is my play.
Rob Vinciletti
Braves vs. Mets
Play: Mets -180
The Mets will look to avoid a sweep here today and have Degrom on the mound. Degromination is what is has been as he has a 2.19 Home era and a 1.89 era in 6 starts vs the Braves. Teheran for Atlanta has lost 7 of 9 starts. The Mets are 4-1 as a home favorite in this range and the Braves are 2-8 on Sundays. The Mets qualify in an 88% League wide system that plays on home favorites off a 1 run heavily favored home loss. Look for the Mets to take the finale.
Mike Lundin
Washington at San Diego
Play: Washington -127
The Washington Nationals ruined what otherwise would have been an OK Saturday when they gave up six runs in the bottom of the eighth against the San Diego Padres to lose 7-3. I think they'll get revenge in the rubber match Sunday afternoon.
Gio Gonzalez (3-5, 3.96 ERA) will take the ball for the Nats. Washington has lost each of his last five starts and Gonzalez is 0-4 with a 6.38 ERA in that span. He's coming off back-to-back quality starts though, and the southpaw has struck out a total of 27 hitters in his last three turns. He'll turn it around any time now, so why not here against the Padres.
Drew Pomeranz (5-7, 2.88 ERA) will take the ball for San Diego. The left-hander has lost back-to-back starts while allowing eight runs on eight hits and six walks through 10 innings of work. Pomeranz is 0-4 with a 4.70 ERA in four day starts on the year, and we can note that the Nats are 9-1 in their last 10 road games vs. a left-handed starter.
Nationals are 8-2 in their last 10 games following a loss. Padres are 1-4 in their last five games following a win.
Jim Feist
Nationals vs. Padres
Play: Under 8
Petco Park is a big park and the San Diego offense is terrible, No. 21 in runs scored, No. 29 in on-base percentage. Washington has veteran Gio Gonzalez going, allowing three runs of less in six of his last 10 starts. The under is 7-3 in Gonzalez's last 10 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance. San Diego starter Drew Pomeranz has a 2.60 ERA at home and batters hit .189 off him on the season overall. The team is 8-1 under the total in his last nine starts. The Under is 36-17-5 in the Padres last 58 home games vs. a team with a road winning percentage of greater than .600. Play
Bob Harvey
Cavaliers vs. Warriors
Play: Warriors -4½
The NBA season comes to an end tonight as Golden State and Cleveland meet in a winner take all Game 7 in Oakland. Cleveland is out for its third straight victory while Golden State gets on final chance to secure another NBA title.
The Cavaliers (72-30, 49-50 ATS) are not only one victory away from ending the city's 52-year sports championship drought, but they’re also looking to become the first team in NBA Finals history to recover from a 3-1 series deficit. LeBron James is doing his part to back up his promise to bring a championship to the city with back-to-back 41-point performances. He’s averaging 30.2 points, 11.3 rebounds and 8.5 assists in the series and is playing like a man possessed.
The Warriors (88-17, 59-44 ATS) are looking to bounce back from two disappointing closeout failures, including an embarrassing performance in Game 6 in which Stephen Curry was ejected after throwing his mouthpiece.Curry has recovered from a slow start in the series by averaging 31 points over the past three games.
The Cavs are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 visits to Oakland and 9-4 vs. the number in their last 13 against the Pacific Division. Golden State is 5-1 ATS in its last six home games.
The UNDER is 3-0-1 in the Warriors past four home games and 4-0-2 in the last six meetings at Oracle Arena.
Jesse Schule
Chicago White Sox vs. Cleveland Indians
Play: Chicago White Sox +1.5 -125
The Indians are clinging to a half game lead at the top of the AL Central, and they go for the sweep in the series finale versus Chicago this afternoon. We should see a pitcher's duel here in Cleveland Sunday. Carlos Rodon will toe the slab for the Sox, and he's coming off a solid performance. Rodon (2-6, 4.28 ERA) struck out seven, allowing a pair of runs on seven hits over six innings in a 3-1 loss to the Royals his last time out. It was the fourth time in his last five starts that he held the opposition to two or fewer earned runs. The southpaw is 3-0 with a 1.52 ERA in his last four starts versus Cleveland. The Indians hand the ball to Carlos Carrasco, who has looked pretty sharp lately. Carrasco (2-2, 3.40 ERA) struck out eight, surrendering a pair of runs while scattering 10 hits over six innings in a 2-1 loss to the Royals his last time out. He's 3-5 with a 5.52 ERA in his last nine starts versus Chicago. Cleveland has won five straight in this series, but two of the last three were games decided by just one run.
Will Rogers
Washington vs. San Diego
Pick: San Diego +1.5
The San Diego Padres will try to salvage a split in this home series versus Washington, and they have all the momentum after coming from behind to win last night's game 7-3. The Nats bullpen blew a three run lead, giving up six runs in the bottom of the 8th. I think the Nats are going to struggle to bounce back from such a disappointing defeat.
Here are my keys to the game:
1. Pitching - Gio Gonzalez will get the call for Washington, and the former 20 game winner has not performed well this season. Gonzalez (3-5, 3.96 ERA) allowed three runs on five hits and four walks over 6.1 innings in a home loss to the Cubs in his latest outing. He's now winless in his last five starts, and he's allowed 11 runs on 21 hits over 18 innings in his last four starts versus San Diego.
2. Batter vs. Pitcher - The Padres are batting .319 with three home runs over a combined 72 at bats in previous meetings versus Gonzalez. Jon Jay is hot, hitting .366 so far in June, and he's 4-for-9 lifetime versus the lefty.
3. X-Factor - The Nationals are 0-5 in Gonzalez's last five starts.
Bruce Marshall
Texas at St. Louis
Pick: Texas
On principle alone, we must back surging Texas, on the verge of another sweep on a wildly successful road trip in which the Rangers have won 7 of their first 9, including two straight at Busch Stadium. Where, by the way, the host Cardinals are winless in this homestand against Lone Star State foes Astros and Rangers and now just 15-20 on the season. Texas has won five straight gaems started by Martin Perez, and no way should Mike leake be laying this sort of price.
PORT PORT SPORTS
SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS +120
Again, this Giants team is currently one of the hottest teams in baseball and should have enough to get it done here today against a battered Rays squad. The Giants will be looking for their 8th straight win overall and they have just been in full domination mode lately, posting a 26-8 ML record in their L34 games. They seem to have no problem playing on the road this season, going 21-13 ML when playing in front of the other guys fans. Tampa Bay is currently on a 9-5 ML run over their L14 themselves, but that includes an also current 3-game losing skid at home. Going back a little further, they have now posted a 5-9 ML record in their L14 in Tampa Bay. Peavy is on the hill for the Giants and although he has only 2 wins to show for his L11 starts, he has been coming into form lately and has kept his opponents to only 11 runs allowed over his L6 outings. Through 8 career meetings against the Rays, he holds a lifetime 3-2 mark to go with a heavier 4.96 ERA. Peavy faces off against the Rays ace in Odorizzi and the kid has stepped up again recently, posting a 3-1 tally and 3.74 ERA through his L6 starts. He has never faced SF in his career, but he has pitched well against the NL when matching up in interleague play. In his career against the other league, Odorizzi has put together a 6-3 record and 3.33 ERA in 13 GS. This one should be right throughout again, but can't get away from the Giants just yet. Roll with the SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS as the underdog in Tampa Bay...
Marc Lawrence
New York at Minnesota
Play: New York -129
Edges - Yankees: Nate Eovaldi 7-2 last nine overall tam starts, and 3-0 day team starts this season. Twins: Ervin Santana 0-3 vs. A.L. East foes this season, and 0-4 last four home team starts during June, and 1-11 overall team starts this season, including 0-6 at home. With the Pinstripes a dominant 21-4 the last 25 games as a visitor in this series, we recommend a 1* play on the NY Yankees.
Don Best Consensus
Atlanta at New York
Pick: New York
ATL are 19-50 in their last 69 road games. NYM are 8-1 in deGroms last 9 Sun. starts. Somehow the Mets are 0-3 in DeGrom's last three starts despite his 2.84 ERA, look for this to change. Mets salvage the final game of this series.
Brandon Lee
Kansas City -103
Kansas City continues to play some of their best baseball of the season. The Royals crushed the Tigers 16-5 on Saturday and are now 7-1 in their last 8 games and 24-8 at home. This is simply too good a price to pass up on KC at home on Sunday. The Royals will send out Chris Young, who has a ugly 6.75 ERA in 9 starts, but he does have a much stronger 3.60 ERA in 4 starts at home. Detroit will counter with Jordan Zimmermann, who is 9-3 with a 3.46 ERA in 12 starts, but is coming into this game struggling. Zimmermann has given up 13 runs on 16 hits in his last 2 starts. Tigers are also just 4-13 in their last 17 off a loss by 4 runs or more, while Royals are 12-4 in their 16 home games this season with a money line of +125 to -125.
ASA
Brewers vs. Dodgers
Play: Over 8
The Brewers Matt Garza allowed only one run in his first start of the season earlier this week. However, that outing lasted only 4 innings and Garza did give up 8 hits in that game at San Francisco. In other words, he was fortunate the damage wasn't worse and it is likely it will be worse Sunday. The Dodgers have won 4 of their last 5 games and have averaged 5.8 runs per game during this 5-game stretch. Los Angeles will need some big runs in this one because Kenta Maeda has a 4.40 ERA in his last 5 home starts. His overall numbers look very impressive on the season but he has allowed at least 4 earned runs in 3 of his last 5 home starts. The Brewers have scored at least 5 runs in 5 of their last 8 games. The over is 16-8 in Milwaukee's day games this season. Also, the over is 9-4 in Brewers road games with a total set at 8 or 8.5 runs so far this year. The over is 8-5 the last 13 home games for the Dodgers where the total is set at 8 or 8.5 runs. As a big favorite of -200 to -225, the Dodgers are on a 9-4 run to the over.
Jimmy Boyd
Rays -140
I'm backing Tampa Bay at home on Sunday, as the Rays are going to come out extremely motivated to avoid getting swept by the Giants. Tampa Bay will also have the edge on the mound with Jake Odorizzi facing off against Jake Peavy.
Odorizzi has a strong 3.27 ERA and 1.089 WHIP in 7 home starts, while Peavy is 1-4 with a 7.20 ERA and 1.433 WHIP in 6 road starts. Peavy is also just 3-14 in his last 17 road starts off a team win.
Rays are 7-2 in their last 9 against a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30, 6-2 in Odorizzi's last 8 starts during game 3 of a series, 5-1 in his last 6 overall and 4-0 in his last 4 interleague starts.
Michael Alexander
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Play: Arizona Diamondbacks -133
The Diamondbacks have slugged nine home runs in the series while Philadelphia's troubles have been amplified by both the long ball and miscues -- it has been taken deep 20 times and committed 10 errors in the last five outings, all losses. The Phillies (30-39) have been outscored 75-28 en route to dropping nine of their last 10 contests and 22 of 28 overall, causing the team to fall from a season-best seven games over .500 on May 18 (24-17) to a campaign-worst nine games under that bar. Philadelphia starter, Eflin's major-league debut was a disastrous one as the 22-year-old allowed nine runs on as many hits in 2 2/3 innings in Tuesday's 11-3 setback to Toronto. One of the Phillies' top prospects, Eflin was taken deep on three occasions, with American League MVP Josh Donaldson's grand slam providing the fatal blow in a six-run third inning.