Sean Higgs
Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Golden State Warriors
Play: Cleveland Cavaliers +170
The fix is in! Really Mrs. Curry? The league is fixed? Was it fixed for your husband winning the MVP? Or when Green was on a nut hunt like a squirrel before winter? Or when Green should been suspended when the Warriors were down 3-1? Shut up and watch your Dubs lose here at home tonight.
I have been on the Cavs ML all series long and that isn't changing. I said I thought they would win the Championship before Game 1 and I am saying here before Game 7. Lebron once again the most dominate player on the court. Where is the league MVP? The guy is again MIA during the NBA Finals for the 2nd consecutive year. Not even the best guy on his team in the most crucial games of the season.
Jack Jones
Baltimore Orioles -113
Getting the Baltimore Orioles as this small of home favorites is a gift from oddsmakers today. They have been one of the best home teams to back over the past several seasons, and that's certainly the case again in 2016 as they are 25-12 at home.
With the way Chris Tillman has pitched this season, the Orioles should certainly be bigger favorites here. Tillman is 9-1 with a 2.87 ERA and 1.158 WHIP in 14 starts, including 6-0 with a 2.39 ERA and 1.215 WHIP in nine home starts. The Orioles are 9-0 in his nine home starts this season.
Marcus Stroman is 6-2 in spite of a 4.76 ERA and 1.327 WHIP in 14 starts this season for the Blue Jays. He has really been struggling of late, going 1-1 with a 6.00 ERA and 1.667 WHIP in his last three starts. Stroman has posted a 4.44 ERA in four career starts against Baltimore as well.
The Orioles are 7-0 in their last 7 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30. Baltimore is 15-3 in Tillman's last 18 starts overall. The Orioles are 40-18 in Tillman's last 58 home starts.
Bob Balfe
Cavs +5
Cavs/Warriors Over 207
You would think the pressure is on LeBron James to bring home a title to the city of Cleveland, but the Warriors are under tremendous pressure. Everything this Golden State team worked for and the record setting year won’t mean a think tomorrow morning if they can’t cash in tonight. This Warriors team is beat up and worn down and fading at the wrong time. Lebron is not going to be denied tonight as he is the best player on the court and leading in just about every statistical category these playoffs. This is going to be a great game that should come right down to the wire. I believe today is the day that LeBron finally gets his respect once and for all in this league. Take the Cavs and the Over.
Oskeim Sports
New York Yankees at Minnesota Twins
Play: New York Yankees -130
New York is a perfect 8-0 in Nathan Eovaldi's last 8 starts versus American League Central opponents, 8-0 in his last 8 starts as a road favorite, 10-4 in his last 14 road starts, 5-1 in his last six starts versus teams with a losing record and 9-1 in his last ten outings on fours days of rest.
The Yankees are also a profitable 39-15 in their last 54 games during game 4 of a series, 6-1 in their last seven games following a win and 7-2 in their last nine games versus A.L. Central opposition. The Yankees have also dominated this series, posting a 44-13 record in the their last 57 meetings with the Twins, including going an incredible 44-16 in their last 60 trips to Minnesota.
Meanwhile, the Twins are a money-burning 20-51 in their last 71 games overall, 14-40 in their last 54 games versus a right-handed starter, 9-26 in their last 35 games versus American League East foes, 6-20 in their last 26 home games and 13-44 in their last 57 games following a loss. Minnesota is also a woeful 3-13 in Ervin Santana's last 16 starts (1-11 this year), including 1-5 in his last 6 starts versus A.L. East opposition, 1-7 in his last eight starts off a team loss and 0-7 in his last seven home outings.
Santana is also 5-9 with a career 6.22 ERA and 1.56 WHIP versus the Yankees, whereas Eovaldi is 2-0 with a career 3.00 ERA and 1.00 WHIP against the Twins. With New York standing at 32-19 (+14.2 units) in afternoon road games over the last three seasons, take the Yankees and invest with confidence.
Buster Sports
Toronto Blue Jays at Baltimore Orioles
Play: Baltimore Orioles +105
The starting pitchers for today's game are for the Blue Jays RH Marcus Stroman (6-2, 4.76 ERA) and for the Orioles RH Chris Tillman (9-1, 2.87) takes the hill. Tillman is the Orioles ace and he has pitched like one this year winning 9 games so far. He has pitched especially well at home where he is 6-0 with a 2.39 ERA and a WHIP of 1.22. Look for Tillman to have another good start this afternoon. As for Stroman he has had a little trouble with the Orioles this year. In 2 starts he has allowed 7 runs in 12 innings pitched. Looking a little closer and you will see Stroman has really struggled in his recent starts, as he has a 6.00 ERA and a WHIP of 1.667 in his last 3 starts. Even with the Orioles Manny Machado beginning to serve his 4 game suspension tomorrow, we believe the Orioles have the better pitching in this contest, which will be the difference. Backing our selection is the fact that the Orioles are 15-3 in Tillman's last 18 starts.
Wunderdog
Cleveland @ Golden St
Pick: Under 208
Golden State has been out of sync the last two games, one from the suspension of Draymond Green (who is back) along with the injury to Andrew Bogut, plus playing on the road the last contest. They likely were focused on a championship parade, but now it's gut-check time in a surprising Game 7. Game 7s are often defensive duels with everything on the line. The last Game 7 in the Finals was in 2013, and it sailed UNDER in a 95-88 Miami win over San Antonio. The Spurs shot 37.8% (6-19 from long range) while Miami shot 43.9% at home. The first quarter scoring was just 18-16 as teams usually bring their best defense right from the opening tip. On the road Cleveland will have to focus on defense first and the Cavs are 7-3-1 UNDER the total against the West, plus 10-4-1 UNDER when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game. The Warriors play their best defense at home, too, 19-6-2 UNDER at home against a team with a winning road record. Both teams will bring their best defensive efforts, and the Warriors tallied just 11 points in the first quarter Thursday on the road. The Warriors are 11-5 UNDER after a spread loss, and this game is more likely to resemble Game 4, which was the only game of the series that wasn't a blowout, going UNDER the posted total.
Dave Price
Boston Red Sox -1.5 +104
The Boston Red Sox should have no problem winning by multiple runs here Sunday at home against the Seattle Mariners. David Price is really coming around of late, sporting a 2.74 ERA and 0.870 WHIP in his last three starts. He has struck out a whopping 102 batters in 91 2/3 innings already this season. Taijuan Walker has not been good on the road this year, going 1-3 with a 5.49 ERA and 1.360 WHIP in 5 starts away from home. The Mariners are 2-8 (-8.2 Units) against the money line when playing on Sunday this season. Seattle is 1-5 in Walker's last 6 starts. The Mariners are 0-4 in Walker's last 4 road starts. The Red Sox are 8-2 in their last 10 vs. American League West.
John Ryan
Detroit at Kansas City
Play: Detroit +103
Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 52-19 mark good for 73% winners and has made 28 units/unit wagered since 1997. Play against home underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher (KANSAS CITY) red hot hitting team batting .300 or better over their last 20 games, in June games. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Detroit is a solid 23-12 (+16.3 Units) against the money line in road games in day games over the last 2 seasons; 14-7 (+8.4 Units) against the money line after 2 or more consecutive overs this season.
Fundamental Discussion Points Neither starter is excellent form, but Chris Young has struggled mightily all season. He has gone 1-6 in 9 starts with a 6.75 ERA and a 1.572 WHIP and has allowed a whopping 18 HR in just 41 1/3 innings of work. Also see Detroit responding to the 16 run beat-down by the Royals yesterday.
Chris Jordan
Let's make some more money and keep the winning alive.
My free winner is on the Los Angeles Dodgers, on the Run Line, as I like this pitching mismatch in their favor, with Kenta Maeda over Matt Garza.
Garza is back in the rotation after missing the first 10 weeks of the regular season with a strained right lat muscle. And while he looked good in his debut last week, allowing one run while striking out five and walking just one, he lasted a mere four innings and threw just 87 pitches. This is a tough spot for him, against a lively lineup that can do damage.
Though Maeda’s status is questionable after being driven from his last start in Arizona in the sixth inning by a Paul Goldschmidt line drive off the lower right leg, my sources tell me he should be fine and will be in fine form for this start. Look for him to neutralize this lineup and dominate for at least six frames.
3* L.A. DODGERS -1.5
Brad Wilton
Hasn't been a whole lot of offense this weekend at Citi Field as we head into Sunday's finale between the Braves and the Mets, and I do not feel there will be too much offense today with Julio Teheran and Jacob de Grom firing away.
Last night's Under makes it 5-1 Under the total the last 6 times these East Division rivals have played.
Julio Teheran owns a 2.55 road ERA for the year, and each of his last 3 starts this season have ended up holding Under the total. The Under also stands at 8-4-2 in his 14 overall starts this season.
Jacob de Grom owns a season ERA of 2.82 and the Under has cashed in each of his last 3 starts this year. de Grom's home ERA is even lower at 2.19 for the year, so based on the numbers I have just listed for today's two pitchers, it is very hard to imagine the offense on either side of the field catching fire.
Go ahead and look for Teheran and de Grom to control the action.
Braves-Mets Under the total.
4* ATLANTA-N.Y. METS UNDER
Scott Delaney
My free play for Sunday is on the Baltimore Orioles in their American League showdow with the Toronto Blue Jays. Baltimore is one game in front of Boston and two in front of the Jays, in the American League East, and will be looking to pick up where it left off with last night's win.
The O's, 25-12 at home this season, have the league's No. 1 power attack, as they lead the bigs this season with 105 home runs.
They will be able to take advantage of Toronto's Marcus Stroman, who I know snapped out of his recent funk by limiting the Phillies to a mere two runs in seven innings, but allowed 25 runs over his previous 29 2/3 innings.
I'd rather back Chris Tillman, who has emerged as the team's ace in superb fashion, having won his past eight decisions. The crafty right-hander has allowed just one earned run in his past two starts combined while striking out 16 batters.
Take the Orioles and list both.
3* ORIOLES
Gabriel DuPont
Complimentary play, I look to improve on my 68-64 run with free picks: Seattle at BOSTON (-1', -105)
The STORYLINE in this game today - The Boston Red Sox and Seattle Mariners are each in second place in their respective divisions, with the Crimson Hose a game back of the Orioles in the American League East, and the M's 7.5 back in the West, behind the Rangers. And as well as the Mariners have played, this is a terrible spot. The Red Sox are going to win big here.
The X-FACTOR in making this choice on this game - The key to this one is David Price, who will outduel Taijuan Walker. Price will be hungry for this victory, as he's pitched well over his last three starts, but has nothing to show for it. Boston's ace has lost his last three starts despite registering a 2.74 ERA. Walker is up for Seattle, after being pulled from his start on Tuesday against the Rays after 3 1/3 innings due to tendinitis in the arch of his right foot. The team remains cautious, which is a red flag for me.
BOTTOM LINE is - Since every MLB wager on a run line or total auto-lists pitchers, I want you to be sure the two pitchers on your ticket, when making this play, are Price and Walker. If they are not the pitchers of record when making your play, disregard this play. The Red Sox lead the bigs with 60 first-inning runs, while they've allowed just 37. That could be where this game is won, as Boston also has 14 home runs in that frame - most in baseball.
2* BOSTON -1.5
Harry Bondi
TORONTO +105 over Baltimore
Orioles will be missing one of the best players in baseball today as Manny Machado has dropped his appeal of his four game suspension and will begin serving it today. That's bad news for the birds as Machado is the engine that drives Baltimore's offense. Orioles face Toronto's Marcus Stroman who has been great this season going 6-2. Baltimore ace Chris Tillman has pitched over his head this season compiling a 9-1 record. While Machado is out for Baltimore the Blue Jays welcomed back an important part of their offense yesterday with the return of Troy Tulowitzki from the disabled list.
Toronto now has won eight of its last 11 games and make it 9 of 12 today.
Bruce Marshall
Red Sox -1.5 +104
Boston's David Price is without a win in his last three starts but that is no reflection on his performance, which features seven straight quality starts. The same cannot be said for Mariners starter Taijuan Walker, who has been shelled in six of his last seven starts, in which his ERA has risen from 1.97 to 3.69.
PORT PORT SPORTS
MIAMI MARLINS -115
Lots of reasons to like the Marlins at home here today. For starters, Koehler is on the hill and that has meant runs for Miami this season, as they have averaged 5.5 RPG in his outings. He has helped his own cause, as he has been a quality start machine lately, with 4 QS in each of his L4 starts and allowing 3 ER or less in each of his L8 times toeing the rubber. He has also posted a 3-1 mark in those L4 starts and has been equally impressive against the Rockies in his career. Koehler holds a lifetime 2-0 record and 1.93 ERA in 4 career starts against the mile high franchise. Miami has dominated the Rockies in much the same way in recent meetings, as yesterday's win improved their recent record to 6-1 ML in their L7 meetings. Miami is also 9-3 ML in the L12 games played against Colorado in Miami. Run with the MIAMI MARLINS in today's meeting.