DAVE COKIN
YANKEES VS. ORIOLES
PLAY: YANKEES +120
Current pitching form charts are in play today as the Yankees conclude their weekend set at Baltimore.
C.C. Sabathia seems to finally be adjusting to his new identity as a finesse pitcher. It took him some time for sure, but he has looked very good lately and today gets to face a Baltimore team that has not been especially productive against lefties.
Kevin Gausman is in lousy form, lots of problems with his fastball command as he’s been in the middle of the plate lately. He’s got talent and I assume this is just a bump in road that could straighten out anytime, but for right now I’d rather fade than tail Gausman.
Outside of Andrew Miller, who threw 28 pitches in the Saturday win, the Yankee end game pen is fresh enough. So the big key today should be Sabathia getting through six, or perhaps seven okay innings. If he can locate as well has been the case in his recent outings, I think there’s a decent chance for the big lefty to chalk up a quality start.
Adding in Sabathia’s career long dominance against this opponent, as well as Gausman’s struggles in day games plus his shaky present form, I think there’s enough to back the Yankees as a dog here.
Marc Lawrence
Washington at Cincinnati
Play: Washington -179
Edges - Nationals: Tanner Roark 1.69 ERA in three career team starts versus Cincinnati. Reds: Jon Moscot 1-5 overall MLB career team starts. With Roark sporting a 2.70 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP this season, and Moscot 0-4 with a 7.13 ERA and a 1.70 WHIP, we recommend a 1* play on Washington.
Art Aronson
Mariners vs. Rangers
Play: Over 9½
The visitors hand the ball to the struggling Hisashi Iwakuma (4-4, 4.41 ERA) who earned a win vs. the Padres on Tuesday despite allowing four runs off five hits while striking out five. Three of the hits he allowed were home runs. Iwakuma has been consistently inconsistent this year and has particularly struggled in this spot already, going 1-2 with a ballooned 5.21 ERA in all day games thus far. The home side counters with Derek Holland (4-4, 4.78) who comes in off one of his best starts of the season, giving up one run off six hits and two walks with two strikeouts over six innings for the victory over Cleveland on Monday. Holland though has yet to strike out more than five batters in a start this year and owns a pedestrian 0-1, 4.26 ERA in all day games to date. With these two volatile starters going head-to-head on Sunday afternoon, the OVER is definitely worthy of a second look in this matchup.
Matt Josephs
Brewers vs. Phillies
Play: Under 8½
Aaron Nola continues to be stellar for Philadelphia despite a 4-4 record. The righty has a 3.12 ERA and a WHIP of 0.944 in 72 innings of work. Nola beat these Brewers at their place back in April holding them to one run and four hits in seven innings. Milwaukee's offense is scuffling a bit. They have scored just 19 runs in their last six games with three of them going under the total. The Phillies bullpen has just two losses and one blown save at home. Wily Peralta has been trying to improve from a slow start allowing just eight runs in his last three starts. Peralta beat the Phillies at home back on April 24th despite allowing four runs and seven hits in six innings. The Philly offense has been awful scoring three runs or less in eight of their last nine games. They don't have a ton of threats to worry about going under in 17 of their 28 home games. I think anytime I can get an 8 or 8.5 even with this team,
Brandon Shively
Rays vs. Twins
Play: Over 9
The Rays have lost Drew Smyly’s last three starts and it’s because he hasn’t been able to strike batters out and they are taking him deep. Smyly is coming off his shortest outing of the season against the Royals who tagged him for 12 hits in 4 IP. For the Twins, they will send Tyler Duffey to the mound who has gotten drilled his last three starts to the tune of a 8.47 ERA and the OVER is 3-0. I expect at least one if not both of these pitchers to give up their fair share of runs today. I can’t just see them fixing their troubles as Duffey is a bottom of the rotation starter and Smyly appears to have hit a rough patch in his season.
The OVER is now 13-2-2 in Ray’s last 17 road games and the OVER is 5-0-1 in Smylys last 6 starts overall. The OVER is 9-3 in the Twins last 12 games overall, as their bats have heated up somewhat while the starting pitching is still sub-par.
The wind is expected to be blowing out at 16 MPH. Both teams are ranked in the middle of the pack over the last seven days in weighted on base average.
Bob Harvey
Cleveland at Golden St
Play: Golden St -6
The Cleveland Cavaliers look to square the NBA finals at a win apiece when they visit the Golden State Warriors in tonight’s prime time affair. The Warriors took the series opener 104-89 jumping out to a 1-0 lead for the second year in a row.
The Cavaliers (69-28, 46-48 ATS) held Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson to a combined 20 points on 27 shots but still lost by 15. They were outscored 45-10 in bench points and saw Golden State score 25 points off turnovers. LeBron James had 23 points, 12 rebounds and nine assists in Game 1 but also committed four turnovers. The Cavaliers are averaging 13.9 made 3-pointers in the playoffs – tops in the NBA – but went 7 of 21 from beyond the arc in the series opener.
The Warriors (86-14, 57-41 ATS)have won six straight games against the Cavaliers dating back to last season’s Finals. While Curry and Thompson struggled, Golden State’s bench Ike Iguodala, Shawn Livingston and Leandro Barbosa combined to shoot 18-of-24 from the field to pick up the slack for their star teammates, who appreciated the effort.
Golden State is 4-0 ATS in its last four championship games and 4-0 ATS in its last four home games. The Warriors are also 4-0 ATS in their past four games.
Cleveland is 6-2 ATS vs. the number in its last eight but is 0-4 ATS in its last four NBA title games.
The UNDER is 5-1 in the Cavs last six games vs. the Western Conference while the Warriors are 5- to the low side last five vs. the Eastern Conference.
Larry Ness
Tampa Bay Rays at Minnesota Twins
Prediction: Tampa Bay Rays
Tampa Bay starters haven’t been the team’s real problem so far this year, as entering Saturday the Rays sat 13th in the AL in both team BA (.238) and runs scored (217). However, Evan Longoria hit his 12th homer and third in this series in Saturday's 7-4 win at Minnesota. He is batting .419 with four HRs, three doubles and 11 RBI over an eight-game hitting streak. He’s now homered in three straight games (the first time he’s done that since August 2013) and enters Sunday knowing that no Rays player has homered in four straight since Carlos Pena's franchise-record six-game run in June 2010.
The 24-30 Rays are in last-place in the AL East but that’s rarified air to the Twins, who at 16-39 are tied with the Braves for MLB’s worst record. Drew Smyly (2-7, 4.77 ERA) gets the nod for the Rays and Tyler Duffey (2-4, 4.57 ERA) for the Twins. Duffey has only given up only four HRs over 41.1 innings in seven outings but he’s posted an 8.47 ERA while allowing 28 hits over just 17 innings in his last three starts. His only career start against Tampa Bay was a road win in August of last season, when he allowed two runs on seven hits and four walks over 5.1 innings in a victory.
Tampa Bay’s Smyly hopes to avoid dropping a career-worst FOURTH straight start. He gave up career highs of eight runs and 12 hits over four innings in Tuesday's 10-5 loss at Kansas City. Posting an 8.82 ERA over that three-start losing streak is in stark contrast to Smyly giving up two or less ERs in FIVE of his first six starts this season. Expect Smyly, who owns a 2.52 ERA in five career starts vs the Twins, to snap out of his slump up against the AL’s lowest-scoring team (Twins are averaging 3.71 RPG). Minnesota had won FOUR in a row from May 25 to May 29 but has now lost FIVE of six.
Make that SIX of seven!
Jim Feist
Braves at Dodgers
Pick: Under
This is a big park in centerfield, tough on hitters, and a Atlanta offense is in town ranked No. 29 in runs scored. Atlanta is on a 4-1-3 run under the total against the NL West. At least they have a hot starter going in Matt Wisler (3.16 ERA). Opponents are hitting .207 off him, but he's 2-5 because the offense can't get him any runs and the under is 7-2 in Wisler's last 9 starts vs. a team with a winning record. Scott Kazmir threw six shutout innings and held the Cubs to just one hit and one walk with seven strikeouts but was stuck with a no-decision Tuesday night. Kazmir is starting to turn around his season, as he has allowed just one run with 19 strikeouts over 12 innings in his past two starts. The Under is 15-4-3 when the Dodgers face a team with a winning percentage below .400, plus they are on an 19-8 run under at home.
Ben Burns
Oakland at Houston
Play: Houston -165
The Astros have treated me pretty well the past few days. On Thursday, I successfully played on them to finish "under" the total in their finale against Arizona, a game which finished with a final score of 3-0. On Friday, I successfully played on them to go "over" the total in their series opener vs the A's. That was a winner by the third inning, the game eventually finishing with 14 runs. Yesterday, I successfully played on the Astros to win. While it took 12 innings, they eventually prevailed. Off that momentum-building win and with a likely advantage on the mound, I like Houston's chances again this afternoon.
McCullers, who has only allowed one HR all season, is 2-1 with a solid 3.37 ERA his last three. In two home starts, he's got a stellar 2.45 ERA. Gray will be making his first start since returning from the DL and he was getting rocked before he left. In his previous three starts, prior to the stint on the DL, Gray was 0-2 with a 9.94 ERA and 2.21 WHIP. In four road starts this season, he's 1-2 with a 8.34 ERA and 1.799 WHIP.
McCulllers allowed only one run and three hits in his lone start vs Oakland. Gray was roughed up for five runs in 5 1/3 innings, the last time he faced the Astros. Throw in the fact that Houston's relievers have a combined ERA which is nearly three runs less here at home than Oakland relievers (2.30 vs. 5.18, entering the wekeend) have on the road, and the Astros look like the way to go again here. If you're not opposed to laying this type of number, take a look at Houston.
Sleepyj
Washington -1.5 -110
I'll take a shot here with the Nats on the RL....Moscot scares me when he is on the mound for Cincy....He has a very good chance to get shelled here today Vs. this Nats lineup..Reds bullpen is always in play as well and we know how bad they are this year...Moscot ERA is sitting at 7.13 and a WHIP of 1.70....He has been all over the place his last few games...Sometimes he shows up and confuses batters and others he just gets rocked...Today doesn't look like one of the good days for Moscot....Roark gets the nods for the Nats on the hill today...He hasn't been all that bad this year..2.70 ERA and a 4-4 record...He can do well today and the Nats are looking to avoid a 3rd straight loss..I think they bring the power here today and Roark slows down this Reds lineup that has been hot the last few days.
Jack Jones
Boston Red Sox -109
This is a very generous price to back the Boston Red Sox at home today against the Toronto Blue Jays. The Red Sox are already highly motivated for a victory after losing three of their last four games overall coming in.
Eduardo Rodriquez had an awesome rookie season last year, and he's picking up where he left off. Rodriguez is 1-0 with a 3.00 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in his lone start this season, pitching 6 innings of 2-run ball while allowing only six base runners at Baltimore in a 6-2 victory.
Marco Estrada has pitched well this season for the Blue Jays. But he has been great at home and shaky on the road, going 1-1 with a 3.66 ERA and 1.250 WHIP in five road starts this year. Estrada is 2-2 with a 4.15 ERA and 1.538 WHIP in five career starts against Boston. He gave up 4 earned runs in 6 innings against the Red Sox on April 16 of this season.
The Red Sox are 6-0 in their last 6 Sunday games. Boston is 10-2 in its last 12 during Game 3 of a series. The Red Sox are 8-1 in Rodriquez's last 9 home starts.
Brandon Lee
Cardinals -144
St Louis is worth a look here as they host the Giants on Sunday Night Baseball. The Cardinals will send out Carlos Martinez, who returned to his early season form in his last start, allowing just 5 hits over 8 shutout innings of a 6-0 win at Milwaukee. I'll gladly take my chances on St Louis at home with Martinez on the mound against the Giants and their starter Jake Peavy. I know Peavy has pitched well in his last two starts, but that came against two bad offensive teams in the Padres and Braves. Even with those strong outings, Peavy still comes in with a 6.34 ERA and 1.572 WHIP in 11 starts. St Louis is 14-2 in Martinez's last 16 starts after giving up 1 or less earned runs in his previous outing.
Jimmy Boyd
Red Sox -106
Boston is showing some great value here at basically a pick'em at home against the Blue Jays. The Red Sox snapped their 3-game losing streak with a 6-4 win on Saturday and I like their chances of building on that momentum with a win to close out the series on Sunday.
The Red Sox will send out talented 23-year-old lefty Eduardo Rodriguez for his second start. Rodriguez was sharp in his first outing, allowing just 2 runs on 6 hits with 0 walks in 6 innings of a 6-2 win at Baltimore. Keep in mind Rodriguez posted a 3.85 ERA and 1.29 WHIP in 21 starts as a rookie last year.
Toronto is just 3-8 in their last 11 road games against a team that's won more than 60% of their home games, 2-6 in their last 8 during Game 3 of a series and 0-4 in Estrada's last 4 road starts against a team with a winning record. Boston is 10-2 in their last 12 during Game 3 of a series, 10-4 in their last 14 home games against a right-handed starter and 8-1 in Rodriguez's last 9 home starts.
Chip Chirimbes
Cavaliers at Warriors
Play: Over 207.5
After what I saw or didn't see in Game 1 it all will be on display Sunday night as the NBA's 'Best' clash Game 2 in the Finals. When I say NBA's 'Best' I mean as individuals and as two teams. The Cavaliers and Warriors did not live up to their billing in Game 1 as golden State's Klay Thompson and Steph Curry reputability the best shooting guard tandem in NBA history scoring a combined 20 points and Cleveland's long range shooter J.R. Smith a 'gunner' on all accounts taking only three shots in 35 minutes making just one. I expect all of the above and a few other help push this game OVER the total no matter where it ends up!
Dave Essler
Detroit -130
Upon further review I think the Tigers ARE the right side (obviously) and thought about going bigger here, but whatever. JV keeps the ball in the park, the Tigers have hammered Quintana - Melky out - although the Tigers' pen hasn't been great, the White Sox back end has been FAR WORSE. I don't grasp the total coming down at all - but don't have the stones to bet against it. IMO this could get ugly for the White Sox.