Bruce Marshall
Tampa Bay at Minnesota
Pick: Tampa Bay
The Twins remain a good go-against proposition as their record dropped to 16-39 after Saturday's 7-4 loss to the Rays. Good chance for Tampa Bay to win its third in a row for the first time in two weeks. A recent hot streak by 3B Evan Longoria has triggered an uptick in the Rays offense and faces struggling Minnesota starter Tyler Duffey, who has an 8.47 ERA over his last three starts.
SPORTS WAGERS
CLEVELAND -1½ +117 over Kansas City
Buy Cory Kluber. Kluber has disappointed thus far, going 4-6 with a 4.15 ERA. What's gone wrong for the 30-year-old ace, and is it fixable? Though his velocity is down a tick, Kluber’s overall swing and miss rate is up via three dominant off-speed pitches: slider (15% swing and miss rate), curveball (31%swing and miss rate), and change-up (29%swing and miss rate). Kluber’s K-rate is likely to increase from here. His ERA/xERA gap is mainly due to a low 64% strand rate. Law of averages will fix that going forward. 2014 may prove to be a career year for Kluber but he maintains a lethal enough arsenal and sufficient skill to remain a front-line starter. Aside from that, Chris Young is about as bad as it gets in terms of starting pitching.
Avoid alert! Yes, Chris Young has outpitched his ERA in the past; yes, he keeps racking up double-digit wins; yes, he helped World Series run. Still, he's 37 and his career-low hit rate from last year won't last. His xERA history gives an idea of what will happen if (when) the planets realign. As an extreme fly-ball pitcher with middling raw stuff, Young's downside remains significant.
BOSTON -1½ +178 over Toronto
Eduardo Rodriguez makes just his second start of the year after going six full in his first start in Baltimore last week. Rodriguez allowed just six hits and two runs in that start at a difficult park. Last season, Rodriguez went 10-6 with a 3.85 ERA in 122 innings for Boston. It was a nice start for this talented rookie. He maintained decent command and mid-90s velocity throughout, his second half first-pitch strike rate grew and he finished with four-dominant starts in a row to end the year. His high pitch counts and average swing and miss rate reflects his fastball dependency and his work-in-progress slider but he usually gives Boston a chance to win. Besides that, this one is more of a fade than anything else.
Now would be a good time to address the many emails and comments we get after Marco Estrada goes out there every five days and spins a very good game. The messages usually begin or end with the writer saying, “You are so wrong about Estrada”. First, we understand that many of you are in Canada and are Blue Jay fans. Fan is short for fanatic. When we wrote about the demise of Jeff Weaver, James Shields, Dan Haren, Barry Zito and many others over the years before their demise, we didn’t get any emails of that kind because none of them were Blue Jays. It’s not personal and my take on Estrada is NOT an opinion. Estrada’s surface stats are great but so are C.C. Sabathia’s, Mat Latos' and many others that are not sustainable and Estrada’s is not sustainable either because the numbers say so. From game to game, there is a ton of luck involved in baseball. To give you an example of this, consider a game from last week where the Padres were getting torched by Seattle, 16-4. The Padres brought in an outfielder to pitch in the ninth and he retired one batter, walked two and hit one. He left with the bases loaded and one out. The Padres then brought in another outfielder and he got the final two outs without giving up a run. Those two outfielders combined for a scoreless inning and it's not the first time that's been done.
Hard hit balls are hit right at people. Wind gusts aid or hinder the flight of the baseball. Soft hit balls fall in for base hits. Yesterday, the Mets had 15 hits and six walks through eight innings and scored just three runs. We could go on and on and on about the variances that take place during a game but what remains the same every single year is that the under the hood stats tell the true story of a pitcher’s skills so let’s compare Estrada to others with near identical skills.
Estrada’s fly-ball rate is 47%. That puts him on the same level as Justin Verlander, Hector Santiago, Drew Smyly, Sean Manaea and Miguel Gonzalez. Estrada’s ERA is 2.43 while the others are in order, 4.11, 4.96, 4.77, 6.16 and 4.09. The difference between Estrada and those others is that Estrada’s hr/9 rate is miniscule at 0.8 while the others are normal. Giving up fly-balls to the warning track is not a skill. Estrada falls behind in the count against 52% of the batters he faces. That puts him on par with guys like Justin Nicolino (4.37 ERA), Carlos Rodon (4.41 ERA), Hector Santiago again (4.96 ERA) and Drew Smyly again (4.77 ERA).
So, what we have here in Estrada is a pitcher that falls behind in the count, gives up a ton of fly-balls and puts the ball in play frequently. What sticks out more than anything in Estrada’s profile is his EXTREMELY lucky BABIP (batting average on balls in play). Estrada’s BABIP is .207. That number is insane, as league average is .301. To give you an idea of how preposterous that is, consider that Clayton Kershaw’s BABIP over the past five years is .281. Jake Arietta’s is .274, Noah Syndergaard’s is .299, Madison Bumgarner’s is .288 over his entire career. When balls are hit and put in play, they have roughly a 30% chance of falling in or finding a hole. Estrada’s BABIP this season is more than 100 points less than his entire career. Again, Marco Estrada has been riding an extreme wave of good fortune since he joined the Blue Jays rotation but let us remind you that he didn’t even make the rotation out of spring training last year and he was demoted to the Brewers bullpen before they let him go. He’s NOT close to being elite but his surface stats have him utterly overvalued and we are going to continue to fade this below average starter until the prices on him reflect his pitching level.
To be clear: I don't think anything of Estrada. I only report what the numbers tell me and those numbers have been right forever. Estrada is not an exception. He's LUCKY and he's been lucky for a full year plus two months. Regression is an absolute regardless of what happens today.
BALTIMORE -1½ +160 over N.Y. Yankees
Kevin Gausman had a strong May, both on the surface (3.52 ERA, 1.21 WHIP), and even more so underneath it with a BB/K split of 8/35 over 37 innings. His 12.6% swing and miss rate was the seventh highest among all qualified starters in the AL. Gausman also brings a 48% groundball rate. His only flaw is one that is very correctable. If he can learn to attack hitters with strike one (51% first pitch strike rate), we should be able to cash in on his rotation anchor upside. There is something very good brewing here and now Gausman will face a Yanks team that scored just three runs in three games in Toronto. In fairness though, the Yankees were playing without Jeter, Williams, Posada, Gehrig, Ruth, DiMaggio, and Mantle.
With earned run averages well above 4.50 the past three seasons, not many projected CC Sabathia would have a sub-3.00 ERA in early June. Is there any substance to this resurgence from the 35-year-old, erstwhile ace? Ah, no, as Sabathia's overall trajectory is still headed in the wrong direction. Sabathia still knows enough about pitching to take advantage of the first pitch strike frequently. But with a diminished arsenal he's throwing less strikes overall as he attempts to nibble at the plate or get hitters to chase. Home runs have been a big problem for Sabathia in recent years with hr/9 rates in 2013, 2014, 2015 of 1.2, 2.0 and 1.5 respectively but not so in 2016 with a friendly hr/9 rate of 0.4. No chance of that number staying that low. Regression is coming. Additionally, Sabathia's 2016's hit%/strand% combo is the best he's had since 2010. The 2.85/4.02 ERA/xERA gap indicates that Sabathia's results are due for a correction. In his prime, Sabathia was a flame-throwing, rubber-armed workhorse who pitched deep into games and seemed willing to sacrifice his left arm, if necessary, to give his team a chance to win. Now his fastball is just a step above batting practice levels and these HR-hitting Orioles are precisely the type of team that will expose him for being the well below average pitcher that he really is. This is a pitching mismatch that is priced like it’s not.
Gabriel DuPont
Complimentary play, I look to improve on my 65-55 run with free picks: Washington at CINCINNATI (+175)
The STORYLINE in this game today - The Washington Nationals are understandbly big favorites in Cincinnati against the Reds once again. But for the second day in a row, I point out the problem, in that the Reds are rolling right about now, and it's worth taking a look at them with this big a price, as they come in having won four in a row after yesterday's big win at the same price.
The X-FACTOR in making this choice on this game - I'm rolling with confidence as my key factor. See, not only has Cincinnati won four in a row, but it's also won seven of the last eight meetings with the Nationals. Remember yesterday, when I told you Washington hadn't lost one of Stephen Strasburg's starts since Sept. 9? I also told you he struggled in four outings against the Reds, building a 5.68 ERA heading into yesterday. The Reds showed no fear in that game and will show no fear tonight.
BOTTOM LINE is - I am not listing pitchers today, as I don't care much about who is going. I like the price no matter what, and would rather grab the big number with straight action, and be able to keep that price if there is a scratch. Take the Reds with a shot here, as the dog price will come in as a nice complement to my premium winner tonight.
5* REDS
Chris Jordan
Now, let's get to my free play for Sunday, as I delve into this National League West clash between the San Diego Padres and Colorado Rockies, who have lost four in a row. Something about the Friars, no matter how terrible they may be, they seem to perform well against Colorado.
Last-place San Diego (23-34) continued its dominance of Colorado (24-31) with last night's win in the middle game of this series. It was the Padres' sixth win in eight games against the Rockies this season.
Despite it being just the Padres' sixth win in their last 19 games, make note the Rockies have lost four straight and 13 of 17.
This is simply one of those matchups of bad teams, that you have to look at who is in the right flow and take advantage of the price in front of us. I'm playing San Diego here, with the cheap chalk.
4* PADRES
Scott Delaney
My free play for Sunday is on the Chicago Cubs, getting it done over the Arizona Diamondbacks. With the price so big, obviously we're playing this one on the run line, which will also carry a hefty price tag, but I'm rolling anyway as it's just a free pick, and we're not wagering big stakes on it.
It doesn't really matter who goes for the Cubbies in this one, as they've been throwing gems up and down the rotation. Chicago starters boast an MLB-best 2.33 ERA, and most recently have posted less than a 1.00 mark and less than a 1.00 WHIP through nine of their 11 consecutive home games.
Yesterday the Cubs did it again in a 5-3 victory. No matter who is on the hill, this is a staff that steps to the hill and gives the Cubs a chance to win every single day.
Chicago improved to 8-1 during a current homestand at Wrigley Field, while improving to 10-1 in its last 11 overall.
Meanwhile, Arizona has lost five straight at Wrigley, and has lost nine of 12 overall. The Diamondbacks have also dropped six of seven on the road.
Take the Cubs on the Run Line here.
5* CUBS -1.5
Brad Wilton
My Sunday comp play is the Yankees over the Orioles.
Take a look at how CC Sabathia has reinvented himself!
The portly southpaw has become a "pitcher" this season, and he enters this game with a 1.42 ERA over his last 3 starts. For the season, Sabathia owns a slim 2.85 ERA.
Look for him to keep his team in this game long enough for their suddenly awake offense to put some runs on the board against Kevin Gausman.
Gausman is winless this season at 0-3, and the O's have dropped 5 of his 8 starts as well. His ERA is over 5 for his last 3 starts, so expect the Yanks to keep their offense clicking today at Gausman's expense.
Solid value with the underdog Yankees.
3* N.Y. YANKEES
Jeff Benton
Your Sunday freebie is the Blue Jays and Red Sox to hang Under the total at Fenway Park in their series finale.
Yesterday, the teams held Under the total for the 7th time in their last 10 series meetings, and the pitching matchup of Marco Estrada and Eduardo Rodriguez suggests we are in for another low-scoring game today.
Estrada owns a 2.43 ERA this season, and 8 of his 10 starts on the year have indeed held Under the total.
Rodriguez looked very strong in his first turn in the rotation, holding the Baltimore attack to 2 runs over 6 innings worked.
I say the pitchers dominate this one, and the Jays and O's hold Under the total.
4* TORONTO-BOSTON UNDER
Ray Monohan
Colorado Rockies -147
The Rockies look to avoid the sweep as they take on the Padres in the series finale. San Diego has been a struggle this season and despite winning the first two games of this series, they haven't been able to string together big winning streaks. Colorado sends out Jon Gray here, who has had success against San Diego. He sits with an ERA of 1.69 in 3 career starts against them.
On the Padres side of things, they go with Luis Perdomo. This will be just his 2nd start of the season as he lost his first one by allowing 4 runs. Perdomo was a bullpen guy for the early part of this season and likely won't give San Diego much length.
Some trends to consider. Rockies are 4-1 in their last 5 games after losing the first 2 games of a series. Rockies are 7-2 in their last 9 Sunday games.
It's been a mess for San Diego this season. Given their struggles, combined with Gray and his success against them, the Rockies hold value here.
ASA
Angels vs. Pirates
Play: Over 8
With the wind expected to be blowing out to left this afternoon in Pittsburgh, and off of an 8-7 Pirates win yesterday, there is no reason that anything other than another slugfest should be on tap for Sunday's match-up. The Angels are 11-3 to the over in inter-league action this season and 7-2 to the over in road games with a total set at 8 or 8.5 runs. The Pirates are 10-1 to the over in home games with a total set at 8 or 8.5 runs this season. Also, the over is 7-2 in their inter-league games, 14-6 in their day games, 8-4 against left-handed starters, and 16-5 in their games against teams with a losing record this season. The Angels Hector Santiago is winless in his last 3 starts with a ridiculous 11.57 ERA and we also look for the Pirates Gerrit Cole to get hit hard as well. His low ERA in his last 3 starts is deceiving as Cole has been fortunate to say the least. The Pirates right-hander has given up 26 hits in the 18 innings he has logged in his last 3 outings. Slugfest time AGAIN!
Dave Price
Chicago White Sox +120
Good value here with the Chicago White Sox as they look to avoid the sweep against the Detroit Tigers after losing the first two games of this series. The Sox actually have the edge on the mound, but you wouldn't know it based on this line. Jose Quintana is 5-5 with a 2.12 ERA and 1.028 WHIP in 11 starts, including 2-3 with a 1.91 ERA and 1.141 WHIP in 6 road starts. Justin Verlander is 4-5 with a 4.11 ERA in 11 starts this year. Quintana pitched 7 innings of 1-run ball in his last start against Detroit. Verlander is 4-14 (-10.7 Units) against the money line when the money line is +125 to -125 over the last 2 seasons. Verlander is 2-9 (-9.6 Units) against the money line when playing on Sunday over the last 3 seasons.
Brad Diamond
Diamondbacks vs. Cubs
Play: Cubs -1½ -130
Cubs now smoking hot again 39-15 and already a run away type lead in the NL Central. Chicago has won 4 straight covering the runs line edition yesterday. Here RHP Arrieta (9-0, 1.56) takes the hill off a 2-hitter in 7 innings of work last time out versus the Dodgers. The Cubs starters have been super in this 9 game home stand bringing an incredible 1.16 ERA to the mound. They have allowed 2 runs or less the last thirteen games. Arizona (24-34) shows Sunday having depreciating efforts when in the losers role. In five of their last six game "losses" the final has been -2 runs or more. They use lefty Corbin this afternoon who has pitched well against the Cubs (2-0, 3.86) but, has not faced the current "offensive" machine since 2013. Arizona comes -38 vs. +142 in the run differential department vs. Chicago this season. With the Cubs 34-20 vs. the runs line, back the home unit.
Rob Vinciletti
Washington Nationals vs. Cincinnati Reds
Play: Washington Nationals -171
The Nationals are 22-1 as a favorite of 130 or more if they allowed 6+ runs in their last game. They fit a tight system here that is 22-5 and plays on road favorites in this range off a -200 or higher road favored loss by 2+ runs and scored 4 or less runs, vs an opponent like the Reds off a home dog win scoring 5+ runs. These teams win by over 3 runs on average. The Nats are 6-1 on the road with a total that is 9 to 9.5 and the Reds are 11-26 vs winning teams. Roark for Washington has a 1.89 era vs Cincy and a solid 2.70 era this year. Moscot for the Reds has a 7.13 era. Play on Washington in this one.
Harry Bondi
ST. LOUIS -145 over San Francisco
It's a little more lumber than we typically lay in baseball, but this is definitely the spot to extend ourselves as we once again go against San Fran's Jake Peavy. The veteran right-hander is simply not a Major League starter right now, especially on the road where he has posted a 7.20 ERA and 1.44 WHIP. The Giants have lost the last eight road games against winning teams that Peavy has started, so let's ride the anti-Peavy train again here tonight with the Cards.
OSKEIM SPORTS
San Francisco Giants at St. Louis Cardinals
Play: St. Louis Cardinals -138
St. Louis right-hander Carlos Martinez is 5-5 with a 3.69 ERA and 1.14 WHIP this season which is generally supported by his underlying metrics: 3.78 FIP, 0.74 HR/9 and 55% GB%. From a technical standpoint, St. Louis is 13-3 in Martinez's last 16 starts with five days of rest, 19-5 in his last 24 outings following a quality start, 8-3 in his last 11 starts versus National League West opposition and 10-4 in his last fourteen starts in game 3 of a series.
Meanwhile, San Francisco right-hander Jake Peavy toes the rubber with a 6.34 ERA and 1.57 WHIP this season, including a 7.20 ERA and 1.44 WHIP on the road and a 6.45 ERA and 1.61 WHIP at night. The veteran hurler is also 3-6 with a 4.30 ERA and 1.39 WHIP in 13 career starts against the Cardinals. Peavy also enters tonight's game with a 4.48 FIP, 4.76 xFIP, 4.58 SIERA, 1.30 HR/9 rate and a 10.1% K-BB%.
Technically speaking, the Giants are a money-burning 5-12 in Peavy's last 17 road starts, 4-10 in his last 14 starts versus teams with a winning record and 0-8 in Peavy's last eight road outings versus .501 or greater opponents. Take St. Louis at a very reasonable price and invest with confidence.