Free Picks for Sunday, March 12th, 2017 from some of the nations best and worst handicappers
DAVE COKIN
CAVALIERS AT ROCKETS
PLAY: ROCKETS -5
Cleveland playing the second of back to backs has been fade material. The Cavs are only 4-8/3-9 in this situation, which I think speaks to the motivational issues this team is having. That’s not a knock on King James and friends, as these regular season games are just a warmup for the main event called the playoffs. So I think the Rockets will be more interested here with this being a revenge game on national TV at home. There’s not really a great deal more to this than what I just wrote. Opinion is Houston minus the points is the way to play this game.
Marc Lawrence
76ers vs. Lakers
Play: 76ers +4
Edges - Sixers: 4-0 ATS away with no rest… Lakers: 0-5-1 ATS versus unrested opponents; and 1-4-1 ATS as a favorite against foes off a loss this season. With the Sixers 16-6 ATS as dogs following a double-digit loss this season, we recommend a 1* play on Philadelphia.
Rob Vinciletti
Chicago vs. Boston
Play: Boston -7.5
The Celtics have won and covered 7 of 8 off a 10+ point loss and have revenge on the Bulls in this game. Chicago has failed to cover the last 4 and home favorites with rest that failed to cover by 14 or more ad a road favorite last out have covered over 85% long term vs an opponent like the Bulls that are off road dog loss. Play on the Celtics.
Jim Feist
Philadelphia at Los Angeles
Pick: Philadelphia
Los Angeles in the roll of favorite? You don't see it often for good reasons. The last time they were a favorite they lost at home to the Kings, 97-96. And in a pick 'em game against Denver they lost 127-121. The Lakers are 4-14-1 ATS in their last 19 games vs. a team with a winning percentage below .400. Young Philadelphia is showing plenty of fire, on a 24-9 spread run. The 76ers are 37-15-1 ATS in their last 53 vs. the Western Conference. And the road team is 12-4 ATS in the last 16 meetings.
Ken Thomson
SMU Pk
These two teams are both solid and both dangerous in the Big Dance as their defensive prowess and timely offense makes them both legit. SMU just shoots it a little better, especially from behind the arc and I think that will be the difference. The two teams split the two regular season games by each winning on their home court. For the Ponies, Semi Ojeleye, Shake Milton & Sterling Brown have made a combined ( 202 for 472 ) triples on the year, a clip of 43%. Ben Moore should get some key offensive boards and the Mustangs should outscore the Bearcats. Cincinnati is mighty capable of shutting down anyone in the country on occasion including SMU so just a 1-STAR play for me here.
Brad Wilton
I know the host has won and covered 6 straight in this Chicago-Boston rivalry, and that includes the "phantom" foul call that went against Boston in the last series meeting in Chicago in the middle of February that saw Jimmy Butler sink the winning free throws for the Bulls the last time these teams met.
I also know that Chicago flies to Boston having lost 4 in a row both straight up and against the spread, while Boston plays this game at home after playing their last 5 on the road.
Based on those facts, you would think this would be a "no brainer" to back the Celts, but Boston's 1-3 mark both straight up and against the spread their last 4 indicates that the C's are going to be happy just to get back on that parquet floor and get a win, no matter how it comes.
Chicago is also desperate for the win, and while the home court trend may lead to another victory for the host, today I think the point spread is a little too lofty to lay with the home favorite on Sunday.
Boston with the straight up, but Chicago plus the points the live dog on Sunday.
2* CHICAGO
Scott Rickenbach
Arkansas vs. Kentucky
Play: Arkansas +8½
The Wildcats have won each of the last 4 meetings by an average margin of 18 points and each game was decided by double digits yet Kentucky opened up as an 8-point favorite here. You can see where I am going with this and, yes, the line has already made a move based on the Cats being a popular choice here. I'll take the contrarian route and grab the underdog Razorbacks here. Arkansas, since they last faced UK, has really sharpened up on the defensive end. Arky has held 3 straight opponents (and 6 of their last 9) under 39% from the field. On other other end of the floor, the Hogs have shot at least 47% from the field in 6 of their last 8 games. The Razorbacks come into this one on a 7-2 ATS run while the Wildcats are on a 5-13 ATS run since crushing Arkansas earlier this season. Look for this one to be much closer than many are expecting as the Razorbacks have come a long way since that early January meeting between these teams. Also, Arky was only down 3 points at the half in that game before getting blown out in the 2nd half. They'll play the full 40 here in what is a huge opportunity for them against big, bad Kentucky! This is a big rivalry and the Razorbacks have closed the gap and are playing their best basketball of the season.
Jimmy Boyd
Blazers vs. Suns
Play: Suns +1½
I really like the value here with Phoenix as a home dog against the Blazers. The Suns have been playing well of late and are fresh off a 100-98 win at Dallas yesterday. It's a lot easier to bounce back from a win than a loss. The Blazers also played last night, but they managed to blow a 21-point lead in a 124-125 loss at home to the Wizards. Portland hits the road, where they are just 11-22 SU and 12-21 ATS on the season. Blazers are also just 3-8 ATS in their last 11 against a team with a losing record. Suns are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games, 9-3 ATS in their last 12 off a SU win and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games against a team with a losing road record.
Teddy Davis
Blazers vs. Suns
Play: Suns +1½
Portland might be playing better but they don't deserve to be favored here as they are just 11-22 on the road this year. Suns are also playing their best basketball as of late winning 4 of their last 6. I see them taking this one tonight. Both teams played last night and I believe the one point loss @ home for Portland against Washington took a lot out of them here.
Cajun Sports
Portland vs. Phoenix
Play: Over 229.5
Both teams are in the back half of a back-to-back with the Trailblazers taking on the Wizards at home while the Suns had to travel to the Big D to take on the Mavericks. The oddsmakers didn’t seem to think the public would care about that fact because they a hung a high total on this game of 232 points. The Trailblazers are 0-1 Under when the total is at least 230 points this season but the Suns have a record of 3-2 Over with a total of at least 230 points this season. Our BTPR Index projects a game total average of 238.4 points. The BMM projects a total point differential of +6.98 points against a total range of 229.0 to 231.5 points. The BSIM Matrix has the Over with a 69.2 percent advantage against the oddsmakers total in tonight’s contest. Portland has gone 36-26 Over this season including 11-5 Over when the total is at least 220 points with a 5-2 Over mark on the road in this situation. Phoenix has posted a record of 40-25 Over this season including 20-11 Over at home. The Suns are 12-3 Over versus Northwest Division foes this season. Phoenix has gone 31-9 Over revenging a straight up loss. When it comes to facing teams that allow at least 106 points per game the Suns have gone Over at a rate of 20-8 Over. Also when facing teams that average scoring at least 106 points per game the Suns have seen the Over cash at a rate of 16-6 Over. We will play this one to finish on the high side on Sunday night in the desert.
Larry Ness
Philadelphia at Los Angeles
Pick: Los Angeles -3.5
Most observers assumed the Lakers were 'tanking,' as the team's first-round draft choice in 2017 is only top-three protected. 4th or worse and LA loses it, something the Lakers can hardly afford (the more ping pong balls LA has, the better chance it gets at a top-three pick). However, LA ended its eight-game losing streak with a surprising 122-110 victory Thursday in Phoenix and now the 20-45 Lakers are just one game behind the Suns in a race to the bottom for the West's worst record (2nd-worst in the NBA next to the Nets).
The 76ers won just 10 games last year but despite Ben Simmons never playing at all this season and Joel Embiid's rookie-of-the-year season being cut short to just 31 games by yet another injury, Philly enters this contest 23-42. Philadelphia has fallen on hard times though, entering this game on a four-game slide with loses in seven of its last eight. The 76ers lost yesterday afternoon at Staples Center 112-100 to the Clippers and head coach Brett Brown told reporters, "We competed, I thought, at a high standard. We were ahead at halftime. We were ahead going into the fourth period. We stuck with a nine-man rotation and I thought our guys fought to the end." With Embiid sidelined, 6-11 rookie Dario Saric has scored in double figures in 15 consecutive games (had 16 vs the Clippers) and is making a late push at rookie-of-the-year honors.
It's been well-documented that LA's front office (Magic?) is trying to determine whether PG Russell (15.3 & 4.8 APG), PF Randle (12.8 & 8.6) and swingman Ingram (8.4 & 4.1) are the core LA wants to move forward with. Six Lakers reached double figures in scoring against the Suns, with Russell leading the way with 28 points on 10-of-20 shooting. Ingram added 14 & 6 and Randle 13 & 8. Russell is averaging 21.9 points, five assists and 2.3 steals per game since the All Star break.
The Lakers have lost five in a row at home but with the win at Phoenix, can capture two in a row for the first time since Jan. 6 and 8 when they defeated the Miami Heat and Orlando Magic. Only three times this season has LA claimed consecutive wins, with the other two occasions occurring in November. However, the time seems right, as the 76ers just played yesterday afternoon against the Clippers and despite leading 79-75 entering the fourth quarter, lost by 12 points after getting outscored 37-21 in the final stanza. Tough bounce-back for a depth-shy team. Lay it with LA.
Harry Bondi
CHICAGO (+7.5) over Boston
We’ll take the points with a motivated Bulls team against a tired and fading Celtics team. Chicago comes in struggling but this is a team that has responded to major losing streaks in the past, going 6-1 ATS this season following a losing streak of three or more and that record is an even better 15-4 ATS dating back the last three seasons. Boston returns home after a long, West Coast road trip, so this isn’t a great spot for the C’s as they play their fifth game in eight days. Boston is also just 12-18 ATS at home this year and has covered just seven of its 18 games in the second half of the season. Take the generous points!
Oskeim Sports
Troy at Texas St
Play: Troy -1.5
The Sun Belt Conference Tournament Championship game features two of the hottest teams in the nation. Texas State has won five of its last 6 games overall, including yesterday's stunning upset over Texas-Arlington as 6.5-point underdogs.
Not to be outdone, Troy enters the Championship game having won five straight and nine of its last eleven games overall. With an automatic bid at stake, I'll gladly lay the small number with the Trojans, who are a perfect 4-0 ATS in their last four neutral site affairs.
The difference in this game will ultimately be Troy's superior attack that is 4.7 points per game better than average this season (79.0 points per game against teams that would combine to allow 74.3 points per game). The Trojans' offense is shooting 47.2% from the field and 38.2% from beyond the arc in Sun Belt Conference play this season.
More importantly, the Trojans' attack takes the floor in excellent form, averaging 77.2 points on 48.4% shooting from the field and 38.7% from three-point territory over the last five games.
I also like the fact that Troy is reliable from the charity stripe, making 72.0% of its free throws in 2016-17, including 72.6% on the road and 73.4% in conference action.
Meanwhile, Texas State enters the Championship game with a pedestrian offense that is averaging just 68.0 points per game against teams that would combine to allow 73.8 points per game to a mediocre offense. The Bobcats managed to score just 66.3 points per game on the road this season.
However, the fact that Texas State is averaging an impressive 78.0 points on 53.1% shooting from the floor and 43.4% from three-point territory in its last five games cannot be overlooked.
I would caution over-anxious Texas State backers with the fact that the Bobcats' recent offensive explosion involves a small sample size inherently skewed by variance.
Let's also note that Texas State struggles from the foul line, making just 65.3% of its free throws, including 64.6% away from home.
Troy's defense, which was 0.7 points per game worse than average during the regular season, has excelled in tournament play. Specifically, the Trojans' are limiting opponents to a mere 64.6 points on 38.7% shooting from the field and 27.3% from beyond the arc over the last five games.
However, just like Texas State's offensive improvement, the Trojans' improved defense covers a small sample size subject to variance.
With Troy standing at 5-1 ATS in its last six games as a favorite and 13-4 ATS in its last seventeen games versus .501 or greater opposition, including 8-2 ATS against .601 or greater foes, lay the number with the Trojans.
Bruce Marshall
Rhode Island Pk
While VCU appears to have a Big Dance at-large bid secured, that is still not necessarily the case with Rhody, which can only guarantee a call from the selection committee with a win in the A-10 final at Pittsburgh. Over the past month, however, URI has looked better than the Richmond version of the Rams, who have careened into various hair-raisers and lost a couple of times (one of those at Rhody on Feb. 25) down the stretch. In that 69-59 win on Feb. 25, Rhode Island owned the glass by a 48-31 count, and smothered VCU's halfcourt offense, limiting Will Wade's bunch to a mere 35% FG shooting, including just 1 of 15 beyond the arc. Rhody accuracy not too much better that game, but thanks to controlling the glass, plus 20 points from jr. G Jared Terrell and 17 more from sr. F Hassan Martin, Dan Hurley's crew was able to erase a 1-point halftime deficit and win going away at Kingston. Speaking of Martin, he has stepped up his production, scoring almost 19 ppg while shooting 60.4% from the floor and grabbing 10.3 rpg over the past three games. With more urgency to win this game, Rhody can be expected to put forth a desperate effort and is worth a definite look.