DAVE COKIN
AVALANCHE VS. OILERS
PLAY: AVALANCHE +115
I’ll readily admit I’m a bit surprised by this line and that can be a red flag. Colorado ought to be the favorite on my projections, and when factoring in the playoff scenario, it’s a little stunning to see them as underdogs as they head to Edmonton.
No question the Oilers have played some reasonably good hockey lately. This team is clearly not just playing out the string. So Colorado cannot simply show up tonight and expect to get an easy win over a non-contender.
But if the Avalanche are right, they are the better squad, and there’s no question that this is what ought to be a big game for the team. Colorado is in what amounts to a two-team race for the one remaining playoff spot in the Western Conference. Therefore it’s incumbent upon this team to get those two points when they’re up against one of the league’s lesser lights.
One thing worth noting on the current form chart is that Edmonton hasn’t been doing much damage offensively at even strength. But the power play potential was certainly realized a couple games back when the Oilers struck for four such scores in one game. Even though the Colorado penalty kill has been absolutely great lately, it might be a very good idea for the team to avoid being shorthanded on too many occasions tonight.
I guess this falls into the obvious category. Better team in a bigger game, and getting a small dog price to boot. In other words, I could be walking straight into a trap here. But in terms of garnering value, Colorado is a win on that count, and I would guess this line will move during the day. I’ll be satisfied enough to take the plus money now with the Avalanche.
Bruce Marshall
S.F.Austin +2
We have seen enough Big Dance action over the years to be wary of "upset teams" from the opening round, especially those from lower-echelon leagues, losing some of their edge in their next game. We're not sure, however, if that angle, or any Cinderella label, applies to tough-minded SFA, which is not exactly a newbie to this event, competing for a third straight year in the Big Dance. With some of the same components (and, of course, HC Brad Underwood) as holdovers, the 2014 Lumberjacks won an opening-round game in San Diego vs. Virginia Commonwealth, and pushed Sweet 16-bound Utah in the the Round of 64 a year ago. And whereas the 2014 SFA edition might have fallen victim to our earlier example of running out of steam in the Round of 32 (when the 'Jacks were whipped by UCLA two years ago), this more-seasoned and accomplished edition is not satisfied with just one win in the Dance, and does not appear as overwhelmed at its accomplishment as the 2014 edition. Certainly, after taking apart a dangerous West Virginia on Friday, SFA is not going to blink at what many believe is a lesser foe than the Mountaineers. Yes, Notre Dame displayed plenty of resolve in its comeback win vs. Michigan on Friday. But ACC sources have insisted all season that the Fighting Irish are down a notch or two from LY's Elite Eight team that featured G Jerian Grant and versatile wing Pat Connaughton, both now employed in the NBA. Shrewd HC Mike Brey made admirable adjustments, with the result being a superbly-balanced offensive machine with five double-digit scorers, now led by jr. G Demetrius Jackson (15.5 ppg), who has assumed Grant's on-court leadership role. But ND lacks some of the sharp edge of last year's team, partly due to the absence of Grant, as Jackson's go-to role, while functional, is also a bit more workmanlike, lacking the pizzazz that Grant brought to the table. The pressure is also going to be on G Steve Vasturia and Fs V.J. Beachem & Bonzie Colson to cope with the pestering Lumberjack defense that turned over the Mountaineers a stunning 22 times on Friday while winning the TO margin 22-7 against WVU, which entered the game ranked second (behind only SFA) in that all-important category. Bob Huggins' defensively-sound Mounties could also not figure a way to slow the Jacks' rampaging SG, 6-4 Thomas Walkup, who erupted for 33 points (19 of 20 FTs) and takes the Lumberjack label literally, coifed and bearded in the traditional tree-cutter look. Moreover, SFA also shares the ball, with its 19 apg ranking behind only Michigan State, and everyone is involved in the service effort, even the bearded Walkup (4.5 apg). With super sub 6-5 Clide Geffrard, Jr. (13.4 ppg) effectively reprising John Havlicek's sixth-man role, SFA has more legit options on attack other than Walkup's 18 ppg. After 28 wins this season, don't think the Lumberjacks are ready to stop just yet, as HC Underwood drives up his price just a bit more for many of the rumored suitors (Oklahoma State and TCU reportedly among them) giving his agent a call.
Rob Vinciletti
Georgia vs. St. Mary's
Play: St. Mary's -6½
The Gaels are projected to win this one comfortable tonight and they are 19-1 at home winning by an average 18 points per game. They have covered 9 of 11 off a non conference game, 10 of 12 after allowing 60 or less points and 3 of 4 after scoring 60 or less. They have won 4 of 5 vs teams ranked 50 to 100 in the RPI Scale. Georgia has lost all 5 to teams ranked in the top 50 RPI Scale and SEC Teams are 1-6 ats in round 2 of this tournament. Make it St, Mary's tonight.
Marc Lawrence
Magic vs. Raptors
Play: Magic +9½
Edges - Magic: 8-1 ATS as dogs of 9 or more points this season; and 3-0 ATS last three games in this series. Raptors: 18-23 ATS versus opponents off a SUATS loss this season, including 3-10 ATS the last thirteen. With the Raptors off a 14-point win over Boston, and having the Celtics up next again, we’ll fade Toronto in this Beantown sandwich and back the avenging Magic today. We recommend a 1* play on Orlando.
Teddy Covers
Northern Iowa vs. Texas A&M
Play: Northern Iowa +6½
Teddy entered the weekend riding a smokin’ hot 41-21 (66%) run across all sports over the last 3+ weeks, including profitable results on each of the first two days of the Big Dance. Don’t miss a single winner all weekend long!
The Panthers full season power rating just doesn’t do them justice. Ben Jacobson’s squad certainly showed their potential early, pulling an upset over North Carolina in their first week of the season. But they had a very rough start to their Missouri Valley Conference campaign, losing six of their first seven, with four of those losses coming as favorites. No surprise, then, that the markets crashed on Northern Iowa, but the team regained their mojo.
The results don’t lie. Northern Iowa is now 13-1 SU, 12-1-1 ATS in their last 14 ballgames. They’ve beaten Wichita State – a team with Top 20 talent – twice during that span – in Wichita and on the neutral floor of Arch Madness in St Louis. Their lone SU loss during this entire span came by only three points and it was in a major flat spot, heading back on the road off that win against the Shockers. This is not a team to lay points against without a darn good reason, and their current level of play is WAY ahead of where the markets have had them priced over the better part of the last two months.
The Panthers won a game in the NCAA Tournament last year before falling to Louisville in the second round. And with Jacobson’s contract extended all the way out to 2025, there’s tremendous stability here – Jacobson’s got his guys doing his thing. Their three leading scorers – Wes Washburn, Matt Bohannon and Paul Jesperson – are all seniors, and their other four primary rotation players are all in their second full year with the team. Jesperson’s buzzer beating three pointer made the highlights on Friday, but this veteran squad is primed to avoid the letdown against the Aggies on Sunday.
Texas A&M had an easy time on Friday, cashing a winning bet for my clients and I against a Green Bay team that doesn’t (and didn’t) play a lick of defense. That won’t be the case here against Northern Iowa; a game that has ‘down to the last possession’ written all over it!
Jim Feist
Celtics vs. 76ers
Play: Over 215
Boston has plenty of offensive punch inside and out, No. 5 in the league in points scored. Boston is 10-3 over the total after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. The Over is also 21-9 in the Celtics last 30 games vs. a team with a winning percentage below .400. They face an abysmal Philadelphia defense, third worst in the league in points allowed and No. 24 in field goal defense. The over is 20-7 in the 76ers last 27 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
Bob Harvey
Magic vs. Raptors
Play: Raptors -9½
The Toronto Raptors go for their fourth straight victory when they host the Orlando Magic. Tip-off is set for 4:30 PM ET at Air Canada Centre where the Raptors are favored by -9.5 with the total at 210. Toronto still has its sights on the Eastern Conference championship and begins play 1.5 games behind the front running Cleveland Cavaliers.
The Magic (29-39, 38-29 ATS) are already focused on next season and are hoping to build on the play of Victor Oladipo who has proven to be the team’s biggest surprise this year. He scored a career high 45 points on 16 of 22 from the field, with five rebounds, three steals and a pair of blocks in Friday’s 109-103 loss to Cleveland.
The Raptors (47-21, 38-30 ATS) have won has won 12 of its last 15 games to put some distance between itself and a batch of teams fighting for third place in the East. In their last outing they cruised to a 105-91 victory over the Celtics. Kyle Lowry went for 32 points on 9 of 14 shooting in the win and is averaging 29.5 points in the last four games.
The Magic are 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings and 4-0 in the last four against the Eastern Conference. The Raptors are 5-1 ATS in their last six overall and 5-1 ATS in their last six vs. the Eastern Conference. The home team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings while the underdog is 4-1 ATS in the past five series meetings.
Orlando is 0-4 to the UNDER in its last four road games and 5-2 in its last seven overall.
Will Rogers
Columbus Blue Jackets at New Jersey
Prediction: New Jersey Devils
The Columbus Blue Jackets snapped a three-game skid with a 6-3 win in the first match-up of a home-and-home set against the New Jersey Devils on Saturday. The Devils must be very disappointed with their performance and I expect them to do everything in their power to execute revenge today.
Here are my keys to the game:
1. Motivational - A Devils' win is absolutely crucial if the club is to stay in the race for a Wild Card spot in the East. They're currently eight points back of Detroit which holds the last wild card, and as if last night's loss to the Blue Jackets wasn't enough motivation for revenge, another loss today would mean that Columbus sweeps the five-game season series. Obviously completely unacceptable.
2. Goalscoring Woes - The Blue Jackets have been outscored 9-2 while picking up just one point through their last three games on the road. They had scored only three goals in their last three games prior to last night's break-out game.
3. X-Factor - With Sergei Bobrovsky starting in the Columbus net yesterday, the Blue Jackets will likely send out youngster Joonas Korpisalo for this contest.
Jesse Schule
Stephen Austin vs. Notre Dame
Play: Notre Dame -125
The SFA Lumberjacks shocked the West Virginia Mountaineers in the first round of the tournament, and they are getting a ton of credit heading into a second round matchup versus Notre Dame as just a one-point dog. I'll take the Irish, who are used to playing the country's top teams in the ACC. Notre Dame has beaten the likes of Duke, North Carolina and Louisville, and when they are playing their best basketball, they can beat anybody. The Irish started slow against Michigan, but they went on to out-score the Wolverines 41-22 in the second half. They shot a staggering 58.1 percent from the field in that game, and hit better than 50 percent from three-point range. The Lumberjacks piled up the wins against the minnows of the Southland Conference, but when they faced tougher competition in their non-conference schedule they didn't fare well. They lost 97-55 at Baylor, 70-60 at Northern Iowa, and they came up short in a 80-73 loss at Arizona State.
Big Al
Wisconsin vs. Xavier
Pick: Wisconsin
Wisky defeated Pittsburgh on Friday, and held Jamie Dixon's men to 43 points. That bodes well for Wisconsin tonight, as underdogs that won a game in which they gave up 45 points or less, have covered 59.3% in the Tourneys since 1991.
Power Sports
Stephen F. Austin vs. Notre Dame
Pick: Stephen F. Austin
I gave the Lumberjacks out in this space, but by no means anticipated the ease w/ which the final result came Friday vs. WVU. That was a very good Mountaineers team they dispatched of, so while it looks like there's little value here w/ a 14-seed in the Rd of 32, it's a drop in class SFA can certainly handle.
We have to go all the way back to 1997 & Chattanooga to find the last time a 14-seed advanced to the Sweet 16. It's been nine straight losses (0-7 ATS L7!) ever since. The only other time a 14-seed made the Sweet 16 was Cleveland State in '86. But throughout the history of this tournament, few (if any?) 14 seeds have been as strong as this one. SFA is the ONLY team in College Basketball that didn't lose a single conference game. As WVU found out the "hard way," the Lumberjacks rebound well, not to mention own the nation's #1 turnover rate. Consider that it was a 14-point outright win despite SFA shooting just 30.9% from the field (they are 47.9% YTD). They turned it over just seven times themselves.
In all due respect, Notre Dame was lucky to beat a Michigan team playing for the second time in three nights. After a slow start (trailed 41-29 at half), the Irish wound up shooting at a 58.1% clip (that's NOT happening here!) vs. the Wolverines. I'm sorry, but Mike Brey's team (just two Sweet 16 appearances during his tenure, one coming LY) is a much weaker opponent than what SFA saw here on Friday night. Notre Dame is really bad defensively (321st in defending the three), thus I expect SFA's shooting to go way up Sunday afternoon. Only the six 16 seeds rate worse than Notre Dame in terms of efficiency on the defensive end among tourney teams. Three of the Irish's last eight games have resulted in losses by 18 points or more and in two of the wins, they trailed by double digits. Yes, SFA "deserves" this kind of respect from the linesmakers.
Alex Smart
Avalanche vs. Oilers
Play: Oilers -128
This is Colorados 4th straight road game, and they will be on tired legs tonight , against an improving Oilers (7-4 L/11 SU) team that has revenge on board for a 3-2 and 5-1 loss to the Avs this season. It must be noted that Edmonton is 12-4 ATS L/16 revenging 2 straight losses where opponent scored 3 or more goals this season. The Avs on top of being exhausted, are dealing with injuries, and suspensions, and are very suceptiable to being upset in this spot. Avalanche are 2-5 in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
Bill Biles
Stephen F Austin vs. Notre Dame
Play: Stephen F Austin +104
Stephen F Austin is on the road to the sweet 16 with how they are playing They can beat Notre Dame in this one and I expect them to The line on this game was very slim which means Vegas believes this could be an upset. Take Stephen F Austin in this one
Bob Balfe
VCU +7
Oklahoma is a great basketball team and what can’t you say about Buddy Hield, the guy is amazing. The problem I see with Oklahoma is the lack of bench production facing a team on short notice and short rest. VCU has a complete basketball team and their bench players should dominate this game. If Oklahoma gets in foul trouble they will get blown out. The Sooners are not the best at getting offensive boards and scoring from outside of their starters just doesn’t happen. This is a predictable team. VCU is not. You can’t just rely on one or two guys game after game. After a while it catches up. VCU should turn this team over a lot with their speed and they are great at second chance points with offensive rebounds. I see an upset. Take VCU.
Texas A&M -6.5
Day one and two looked like the Missouri Valley Conference was going to get to the final four with their play, but cream rises to the top late in the year. Vegas setting this line so high knowing bettors will be on UNI as the dog makes me like A&M even more. This is a game in which Northern Iowa will be effected by size. This is the worst team in the nation at getting offensive rebounds. This team will need to shoot 60% today to win and that will be no easy task against the #34 ranked defense in the country. UNI has a great defense of their own, but those numbers are inflated because of the weaker teams they play. You will see the difference between size, speed and skill today. Texas A&M will this team over a lot, get second chance opportunities and dominate with their bench. Take Texas A&M.
SPORTS WAGERS
Syracuse -6 over Mid-Tenn State
Let’s not get crazy here. The Blue Raiders pulled off one of the greatest upsets ever in this event and if few were watching it at the start, the entire country tuned in at the end. What millions of folks witnessed was a team they have never seen before take down a Giant. The overreaction to that victory is something we are about to take advantage of. The fact that Mid-Tennessee State defeated Michigan State means nothing. Upsets happen when a vastly superior opponent takes an inferior one lightly. Upsets happen when that inferior opponent has the game of their lives when the superior opponent shows a lack of respect. Let us point out that the Spartans were a 17-point choice in that game and now we can shave 11 points off from that number and play the Orange at a sweet price.
The Blue Raiders hung up 90 points on the Spartans (on 68 possessions) and there is no chance that they come even close to that output here. No chance. The best teams in the country average around 1.20 points per possession And MTSU just hung 1.32 PPP on the NCAA tournament's betting favorite. The Blue Raiders are a Conference-USA resident that finished seventh among that group in offensive efficiency. The Blue Raiders hit 11 of 19 shots from beyond the arc but they won’t come close to hitting that high a percentage again versus Syracuse’s zone.
The Orange started slowly against Dayton and held a slim 30-28 lead at halftime. However, the Orange were the much better team in the second half, going on a 26-5 run, turning a close game into a blowout. Props has to be given to the solid Syracuse defense. Syracuse outrebounded Dayton by a tally of 48-28, which included 16 offensive rebounds. Malachi Richardson led the way offensively with 21 points, and 6’8” Tyler Roberson ended the night with a terrific 18 rebound performance. Defensively the Orange are solid, allowing only 65.3 points per game, ranking them 31st overall while holding opponents to 41% shooting. The best part however, is that Syracuse will not take this opponent lightly. Had they met the Blue Raiders in the first round they may have but the Spartans loss to this group assures us that the Orange will be ready. There’s also the jubilation of being a 15 seed upsetting a 2 seed that the Blue Raiders have to overcome. That adds the human element into this equation of being emotionally higher than they’ve ever been and being in the media spotlight. The Blue Raiders upset of a lower seed is not like the others. That was one that happens once a decade. Most importantly, we get a deflated number on the Orange and one we’re not about to miss.
Hawaii +7 over Maryland
Last year, Maryland’s lack of offensive rebounding was a reason to mistrust the Terps at tournament time. This season, keyed by freshman big man Diamond Stone, Maryland is much stronger on the boards but the Terrapins are far looser with the ball. Maryland is committing turnovers on 19.6 percent of possessions, a rate that ranks 250th in the NCAA and is a key reason why Mark Turgeon’s crew is the fourth-best shooting team in the country (effective field goal percentage: 58.7 percent) but just the 18th-best offense (115.9 points per 100 possessions, after adjusting for schedule). It’s not like they’re gambling and compensating at the other end, either, as Maryland ranks 256th in generating turnovers. Favorites looking for safety cannot afford to give opponents extra possessions, a fact demonstrated to Maryland many times this season. The Terps have just seven covers in 19 games this season when they are favored by seven or more and they had they had to sweat in its 79-74 win over South Dakota State in the first round.
California's Jabari Bird and Tyrone Wallace were unable to play in Hawaii's 77-66 upset win on Friday. Trying to win in the postseason with recent injuries to two key upperclassmen, one being the starting point guard and the other a 40-percent 3-point shooter is certainly a tough task but all it does is take away from the Warriors credibility here and allow us to buy them at a very good price.
After locking down its first ticket to the Big Dance since 2002, Hawaii is playing on borrowed time. In December, the NCAA slapped a batch of sanctions on the Rainbow Warriors for offenses committed under ex-coach Gib Arnold, including a postseason ban next year. But Eran Ganot, a former assistant at St. Mary’s, inherited a talented squad and has tightened it up on offense and defense. In particular, Hawaii has leaped from 314th in the nation all the way to 27th in defensive rebounding percentage while actually improving its perimeter defense. The Rainbow Warriors are a legit top-50 team.
Even better for our purposes, all the turmoil and a new coach and system haven’t dampened Hawaii’s key spark, that being the disruptive play of their guards. The ability to force turnovers is crucial for taking down Maryland here. Historically, steals are the most important type of turnovers and after Roderick Bobbitt recorded 100 steals last season, the most in the NCAA, he’s back to his old tricks, filching 3.6 percent of opponent possessions, the 49th-best rate in the country. Quincy Smith (4.0 percent) is an even more outrageous thief, and Isaac Fleming (3.1 percent) isn’t far behind. This is a crew capable of hijacking the rock and busting up more brackets here. Maryland’s propensity to turn it over makes the points here even more attractive.
St. Joseph’s +6½ over Oregon
We are going to continue our assault on the Pac-12 by once again taking aim at its conference champion. The question was never whether the Ducks would win over Holy Cross, it was by how much. For those backers willing to take the Ducks spotting what was construed as an inflated point-spread, Oregon held their end of the bargain, routing Holy Cross 91-52. We have already mentioned how the Oregon Ducks finished their 2015-16 campaign to earn an unprecedented #1 seed. Friday’s performance against Holy Cross certainly bolstered Oregon’s legitimacy. Given their previous annihilation of a team they were expected to obliterate, the Ducks seem to be the sexy play against a potential silent killer in St. Joseph’s but we’re still not buyers of the final Pac-12 remaining of the seven that started this event. In case you missed it, Utah, the second last team remaining in the Pac-12, was torched by Gonzaga last night.
St. Joe’s is a very dangerous team. The Hawks finished at 28-7 to capture an Atlantic 10 title that seem destined to fall to either #7 seed Dayton, who have been eliminated or #10 seed VCU, who sent Oregon’s arch-nemesis Oregon State packing in the first round. Let the Oregon State/VCU result among many others serve as prime indicators of what can happen to those wishing to employ the Power Conference/Mid-Major Conference angle. The Pac-12 and its constituents have shown no semblance to that of a power conference. In the opening round, California, Oregon State and Arizona were all eliminated at the hands of mid-major opponents. USC was the fourth conference member to fall, also to a lower ranked seed in Providence. We continue to ramp our attack on the Pac-12 because their performance portfolio in this tournament warrants it and now the golden boys of this besieged enclave may be the next batch of sitting ducks.
St. Joe’s finished 28-7 for a reason and they’re a team that can go tit for tat with Oregon in virtually every key offensive capacity. We have mentioned it once and we will bring it up again; the Ducks fell to Stanford, they were routed by California, they were dominated by Oregon State and they lost to teams like Boise State and UNLV. St. Joe’s is better than any of those teams that were able to pull off a win against this vaunted Pac-12 frontrunner.
There are times when shooting stats, points scored and made threes hold weight but Oregon’s dominance over Holy Cross and a slew of Pac-12 opponents suggest some grossly skewed numbers that we’re not going to put emphasis on. While one has to respect Oregon’s talent, we remain strong in our conviction that the Pac-12 was ripe to get exposed and Oregon is the final rung on that ladder. The Ducks are likely in for a battle here that comes right down to the wire.
Stephen F. Austin +105 over Notre Dame
The Lumberjacks of Stephen F. Austin have announced their arrival on the college basketball landscape with a bang, taking down a tournament dark horse in West Virginia. The Lumberjacks defense is so good that it can wreak havoc on virtually any opponent. The 70-56 victory for Stephen F. Austin is a testimony to how sound their defense and excellent execution really is. Furthermore, it seems to be nothing more than fine print but the Lumberjacks have won their last 21 games in a row. Let us reiterate that, 21 games in a row. They have not lost since January 2nd, a streak that is 23 days longer than the highly touted number one seed of the tournament, Kansas. What Stephen F. Austin pulled off against West Virginia was no fluke. The Lumberjacks are not punching above their weight and the oddsmakers know it, evidenced by the price here. While most Cinderella’s are prone for a letdown after a big first round victory, the Lumberjacks are not like others. They are not satisfied in the least and this focused team takes a significant step down in class here against the Irish.
It’s easy to forget after last season’s run to the Elite Eight, but Notre Dame hasn’t fared well in recent NCAA tourneys. The Irish lost as a 7-seed in the first round in 2012 (vs. Xavier) and 2013 (vs. Iowa State). In 2011, they made it through the first round as a No. 2 seed, but got nailed by 10th-seeded Florida State’s slingshot in the second round. And in 2010, led by the great Blaine Taylor, 11-seed Old Dominion turned the Irish into a first-round slain Giant as well. The problem in nearly each of those seasons was defense. And so it is again for the Irish, who rank 193rd in defensive efficiency, giving up adjusted 104.7 points per 100 possessions. A team can get away with bad overall defense if it finds ways to minimize opponents’ possessions but the Irish don’t force turnovers—like, ever—with a 14.8 rate (337th in the nation). Nor do they do a particularly good job cleaning up after their opponents miss a shot, allowing a 30.3 percent offensive rebounding rate. So, yes, Notre Dame is an offensive machine, ranking third in the nation with an adjusted 119.8 points per 100 possessions. Sure, Demetrius Jackson is playing as well as almost any point guard in the country, Zach Auguste is averaging a double-double, Steve Vasturia and V.J. Beachem are knocking down treys and Bonzie Colson gives them five players that can score in double-figures. But the Irish have to get stops on a consistent basis, especially since every team faces a tough shooting night at some point in the tourney. Based on what the Irish have shown this season, that’s not about to happen.
The burden now falls on Notre Dame and how they take the ebb and flow of the tournament. Do the Irish perceive Stephen F. Austin as another snack in route to a pending collision with Xavier or Wisconsin or do they take the threat serious and play like the team that beat North Carolina earlier in the year? Notre Dame was down by 13 points to Michigan and they had better be a lot sharper than that if they expect to move on. We’re betting they are not sharper and that their inconsistent ways and complete lack of attention to details gets the best of them here.