Chip Chirimbes
Iowa vs. Villanova
Play: Iowa +7
We were so disappointed in the Hawkeyes collapse in their overtime win against Temple Friday afternoon as they squandered a 14-point second half lead. Meanwhile No. 2 seed Villanova routed NC-Asheville by 30 points. That is typical for the Wildcats who beat up on 15th and 16th seeds but are 0-6 straight up against all others. These two have met five time with Villanova winning four including the last meeting during the 2013-14 season in the Bahamas. Two trends lean on the Wildcats as they are 8-0 ATS in their last eight against the Big Ten and Iowa is 1-8 ATS in their last nine games overall. Yet, the way this game sets up it should go done to the final horn.
Mike Lundin
Kings vs. Knicks
Play: Under 211
The over is 4-1 in the last five meetings between the Sacramento Kings and the New York Knicks, but the lone meeting so far this season ended with a 99-97 Kings win at Sacramento back on Dec. 10 and I think we're in for another low-scoring encounter.
The Knicks have struggled with their scoring lately and shot just 39.5 percent from the field in a 99-89 loss at Washington yesterday. The under is 5-1 the in Knicks last six games playing on no rest and we can note that Carmelo Anthony is questionable with a migraine.
The under is 6-0 in the Knicks last six when hosting a team with a losing road record (the Kings are 12-22 SU on the road this season) and while Sacramento is a high-scoring team, keep in mind that the under is 16-6 when Knicks have taken on good offensive teams that are scoring 99+ points/game in the 2nd half of the season.
Brandon Lee
Iowa vs. Villanova
Play: Iowa +6.5
The Hawkeyes are coming off a thrilling 72-70 overtime win over Temple. Iowa gave away the game at the end of regulation to force overtime, but capped off the extra period with a game-winning shot in the final seconds. That kind of win is just what the Hawkeyes needed to snap out of their funk. I think Iowa has an excellent shot of taking down Villanova today. What people overlook with Iowa poor record down the stretch, is almost every game came down to the wire. The Hawkeyes didn't have a single loss all season by more than 8-points, which makes the 6.5-points they are getting too good to pass up.
Jimmy Boyd
Oklahoma -6½
I think this is a good price to back the Sooners against the Rams. Oklahoma has arguably the best scorer in the tournament in Buddy Hield and are a guard-oriented team. That makes them a horrible matchup for VCU and the pressing style. Hield and company should have no problem breaking down the Rams pressure. That's going to lead to a lot of easy baskets. With the way Oklahoma can score, that's just too much for the Rams to overcome.
VCU looked impressive in a 75-67 win over Oregon State on Friday, but keep in mind that's an Oregon State team that struggled away from home and had a lot of inexperience players playing major roles. Oklahoma is more experienced and know how to break a press with West Virginia in the Big 12.
Another key here is the Sooners defend the 3-point shot well, which is key against a team like the Rams. VCU averages 20 3-point attempts per game. Opponents have hit just 33.8% from long distance against the Sooners this season. Another big key here is Oklahoma is a strong free throw shooting team, which should ensure that they push this lead out enough to cover the spread if it's close late.
Jack Jones
Iowa/Villanova Under 145.5
Iowa and Villanova are two teams who pride themselves on defense. That will be on full display today as both teams lock the opposition down defensively in what will be a lower-scoring affair than the oddsmakers believe.
Villanova owns the No. 1 scoring defense in the country. It is giving up just 63.5 points per game and 39.9% shooting against opponents that average 73.9 points on 44.3% shooting this season. It will focus in on stopping Jarrod Uthoff and Peter Jok as Iowa doesn't have any other legitimate scoring threats.
Iowa hasn't been too shabby defensively itself. Its length will be something that Villanova is not used to facing on a regular basis. The Hawkeyes allow 68.7 points per game on 41.6% shooting this season against opponents that average 73.7 points and 45.0% shooting on the season. Iowa also holds opponents to 30.8% shooting from 3-point range, which is key considering Villanova gets up 25 3-point shots per game.
Ioiwa is 10-3 to the UNDER off one or more consecutive overs this season. Villanova is 8-1 to the UNDER in a neutral court game where the total is 140 to 149.5 over the last two years. The UNDER is 10-4 in Hawkeyes last 14 neutral site games.
Dave Price
Middle Tennessee +6
The Key: Middle Tennessee acted like it belonged in its 90-81 upset win over Michigan State as 18-point underdogs. It didn't celebrate too hard after that win, and I believe it has a legitimate shot to make the Sweet 16 with a victory over Syracuse Sunday. The Blue Raiders are a team that spreads you out and can shoot the 3-pointer. In fact, they made 11-of-19 from distance against Michigan State. Syracuse is a team whose zone defense is predicated on forcing opponents to make outside shots, and the Blue Raiders are obviously fully capable. They shoot 39.2% from 3-point range on the season, and the Orange give up 23 3-point attempts per game. This is a great matchup for the Blue Raiders. Middle Tennessee is 8-2 ATS in road games when playing against a team with a winning record this season. Syracuse is 0-4 ATS in its last 4 vs. C-USA teams.
Brad Wilton
Sunday comp play winner on the Orange over the Blue...Blue Raiders that is.
Syracuse's selection to the dance did raise some eyebrows, but after watching the Orange defense just flat-out stifle a pretty good offense in Dayton, I get the feeling that the 'Cuse will be able to snuff out upstart Middle Tennessee State who pulled off a major upset of Michigan State on Friday.
The Blue Raiders NEVER trailed against Sparty, but can they avoid the "emotional hangover" that is staring them straight in the face? I don't think they can.
The draw just opened up for the Orange, and they will not let this golden opportunity pass them by on this Sunday in the Gateway City.
Lay the points with the 'Cuse.
2* SYRACUSE
Gabriel DuPont
Free play for tonight, as I look to improve on my 31-19 runwith complimentary play: Hawaii (+7) vs. Maryland, at Spokane
The STORYLINE in this game today - I love hearing about the Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors, a 13-seed who many believe are here by default, since Cal suffered crushing injuries and lost before the game started. Sure, staring the Warriors in their face is a tough Maryland team, but newsflash: Hawaii is a very good team. Maryland has balanced scoring and size, but Hawai'i, the Big West champs, set a school record for victories in a season. And the Warriors manhandled Cal, while Maryland was lucky to beat South Dakota State. I like the dog here.
The X-FACTOR in making this choice on this game - My x-factor here is confidence. I think Hawai'i has it, and I think Maryland wishes it did. After leading the Jackrabbits by 18 points late in their game, Maryland had to force a key turnover in the closing seconds to salvage that win. What will happen when the Warriors jump out in front? I don't think the Terps respond as quick as they think they can. This is a team that I feel crept into the dance, as it lost five of its final eight games before the tournament.
BOTTOM LINE is - Hawai'i has been on the mainland since March 1 after playing its final two Big West regular season games on the road, followed by the conference tournament in Anaheim. This team has bonded well, and has come together at the right time. This will be a great story if this team moves into the next round. I think we may hear that story.
1* HAWAII
Jeff Benton
Your Sunday freebie is the Over in Boston and Philadelphia.
The Celtics need to get off their 4 game losing streak, so look for them to come out of the gate strong in this one.
Boston has allowed the opposition to reach the century mark in 4 straight and 6 of their last 7, so even though Philly is a bad team (and I do mean BAD!), count on the Sixers to at least get to 100 points.
Philadelphia has played Overs in 7 of their last 11 games, and they have allowed 103 points or more in 15 of their last 17 games contested!
Both meetings between the teams this season have held Under the total, but 3 of the last 5 in this series, and 6 of the last 10 overall between the clubs have also landed Over.
Points to add up, Boston-Philly Over.
3* BOSTON-PHILADELPHIA OVER
Oskeim Sports
Hawaii vs Maryland
Play: Hawaii +7
Hawaii is more than capable of advancing to the Sweet 16 behind an efficient offense that is averaging 77.6 points per game (46.8% FG) against teams that would combine to allow 77.6 points per game. Hawaii is also shooting 46.5% from the field on the road and 47.6% over its last five games so I don't envision the Warriors struggling against a solid Maryland stop unit that is 6.0 points per game better than average (66.5 points per game to teams that would combine to average 72.5 points per game).
Hawaii is ranked 21st nationally in scoring margin (+11.1), 19th in free throw attempts (833), 36th in free throws made (567), 64th in scoring offense (77.6), 65th in field goal percentage (.462), 40th in assists per game (15.8) and 49th in total assists (504).
The Warriors also possess a very good defense that is limiting opponents to just 66.5 points per game on 39.5% shooting from the field and 30.8% from beyond the arc. Hawaii's defense has only gotten better in postseason play, holding foes to a mere 64.0 points per game (38.5% FG; 25.5% 3-PT). The Warriors should have success slowing down a good Maryland attack that is 6.5 points per game better than average (76.1 points per game against teams that would combine to allow 69.6 points per game).
Hawaii is ranked 26th nationally in field goal percentage defense (.398), 34th in three-point field goal defense (.315), 28th in steals per game (7.9), 32nd in total steals (252), 39th in turnovers forced (14.8), 50th in rebound margin (+4.7) and 75th in defensive rebounds per game (26.8).
From a technical standpoint, Hawaii is a profitable 4-0 ATS in its last four non-conference games, 4-0 ATS in its last four games versus Big Ten Conference opposition and 7-3 ATS in its last ten games versus teams with a winning record, including 5-1 ATS versus .601 or greater opposition. In contrast, the Terrapins are a money-burning 0-4 ATS in their last four NCAA Tournament games and 1-4-1 ATS in their last six games versus .501 or greater opposition. Grab the points with the Warriors!
Wunderdog
Iowa vs. Villanova
Pick: Iowa +7
Iowa went through a late season shooting slump, but this team is very talented and deep, capable of attacking opponents inside and out. The Hawkeyes are a veteran team that finished #3 in the Big 10 in scoring, #5 in scoring margin (+9.2), and #4 in three-point shooting. They have excellent frontcourt size in seven-footer Woodbury (7.8 points per game, 8.4 rebounds per game) and 6-9 Uthoff (19 points per game, 6.3 rebounds per game), along with a pair of outstanding guards in Jok (16.2 points per game) and Gesell (6.2 assists per game). They face a Villanova squad that lives by the three-pointer, but is suspect on defense and under the glass, ranked second to last in the Big East in rebounding offense. They got routed by Oklahoma (78-55) and Virginia (86-75) during the regular season, and lost to Seton Hall (69-67) in the Big East tourney as -6 chalk. The Wildcats are also 3-7 ATS in their last 10 NCAA Tournament games. Play Iowa.
Ralph Michaels
Ball St -7
Ball St hadn't won a post season game since 2002 and that showed when they trailed by 17 at Tennessee St but they rallied and pulled won in 2OT's. Now with a win in the books they get to host today's game. We were worried about a let-down but the coach has handled that - From Star Press; Practice was flat Friday, guys weren't playing with intensity, so Saturday's practice started with watching film from the day before. Whitford wanted to make sure his team was dialed in to keep this UT Martin game on the horizon from starting like the Tennessee State contest, when Ball State shot 5 of 29 and lost 10 turnovers. UT Martin pulled the upset in their first CIT game beating Cent Michigan but that was their first game in 9 days so the effects of losing senior Myles Taylor to a suspension wasn't felt. Taylor was #3 in minutes played, #2 in scoring and #2 in rebounding and he'll be missed. The Cardinals are also in a situation we like playing on in these non-March Madness tourney's which is they finished the season very poorly, losing 3 straight, and this really is a new chance to go into next season on a high note.
Steve Merril
Villanova -4.5
My power ratings say there is a solid 2 points of line value on Iowa in this game. However, my concern with the Hawkeyes has been their recent slide. Iowa was terrific early on, but they imploded down the stretch, and they continued that trend in their non-covering overtime win against Temple. They were up double digits multiple times only to let a terrible Temple offense get back into the game. Villanova is certainly a beatable team, but Iowa struggling against Temple showed the Hawkeyes have yet to get back to their early season form.
Notre Dame -1
Notre Dame was initially as high as -2 in some spots, but the money quickly came in on Stephen F. Austin, and now the Lumberjacks are Pick/-1 point favorites. I think Stephen F. Austin is the correct side, but I trust my numbers and I will simply pass on this game since there is no line value.
Jimmy Moore
Hawaii +6.5
Hawaii was an upset winner in their first game but all anyone will talk about is Cal's injuries - basically giving Hawaii no credit for the win. That will have them extra ready for this game here. Maryland had a big lead in their game but fell apart late turning an easy win into a nail-biter. Look for Maryland to not be ready for Hawaii here trying to just show up and win. Hawaii can hang with them and they will at least stay within this number.
Chip Chirimbes
Oregon vs. St. Josephs
Play: St. Josephs
Oregon come in 'hot' winners of their last nine while St. Joe's eked out a controversial win over Cincinnati on Friday. Both clubs come in 6-4 ATS in their last 10 games but St. Joseph's is 22-7-1 ATS in their last 30 games overall. The Ducks have been great against the 'number' themselves going 20-12 ATS on the season. The Hawks have the Atlantic-10 Player of the Year DeAndre Bembry carried the Hawks the past two games averaging 26.5 points, 5.5 rebounds, 4.5 assists, 1.5 blocks and 1.5 steals.