Harry Bondi
MARYLAND -7 over Hawaii
Hawaii has been a great story this season. Not much was expected of the Warriors but they had a great year, won the Big West Tournament to make it to the NCAA and then upset an undermanned California team that was without 2 starters including the Bears best player. Maryland, on the other hand, was the preseason #2 team in the nation and was 15-1 to start the year. But since then the Terps have been inconsistent, including on Friday when they built a 15 point lead over South Dakota Stat before letting them back in the game. We think they learn from that and build a big lead on Hawaii, who we expect to come out flat after such a huge win for their program, and this time not let up. Terps roll.
SPORTS WAGERS
PITTSBURGH +102 over Washington
OT included. If Penguins could fly this group would be soaring high above the clouds after a five-game winning streak. The W's have come at the right time of year for the Pens, as they've been able to shake the stink off their unusually average start to the season. What's most impressive is that they've been winning without Evgeni Malkin, who is missing in action for the second time this season with an upper body injury. “Geno's” absence has forced this team to test their depth and we like what we've seen from Brandon Prust and other role players with grit. Nick Bonino has stepped in admirably for the injured Malkin with a goal and two assists over their last two games. The Penguins were a fringe playoff team two weeks ago but are now on the verge of a Metro Division title. To give you an idea of how determined the Penguins are, consider that they are on a current run of 13-3-1 in their last 17 versus division opponents including yesterday's 4-1 win over the then red-hot Flyers.
The Capitals are coasting to the Presidents Trophy and head coach Barry Trotz insists they aren't on auto-pilot as they march into the playoffs. He said there's no need to reinvent the wheel but Trotz spent most of the last few games shuffling his lines trying to generate a spark. If we are looking for a weakness in these Caps it could be they've been too good for too long this season. They are going to go gate to wire with the league lead in points and right now they are a very complacent group. They can’t be caught and therefore are in no danger of losing home ice advantage throughout the playoffs. Eight of their last 10 games have been decided by a goal and four of those went to extra time. The truth is the Capitals are not feeling any heat right now and won’t be until the playoffs begin when the temperature goes way up. It has to be difficult to get motivated every night with such a huge lead on the rest of the league. The Caps goal is to stay healthy, stay sharp and not get into a funk but they are stepping into a difficult spot here against a team that is playing as well as anyone right now. Wrong side favored.
CHICAGO -1½ +166 over Minnesota
OT included. We want to take you back to February 21 in Minnesota, which is the last time these two hooked up. It was an outdoor event at Target Field and over 50,000 people were on hand to witness the Wild humiliate the Blackhawks, 6-1. Now, revenge is an angle we rarely use but there are exceptions to every rule. We can assure you that the Blackhawks have had this one circled on their calendar ever since. This is the fourth meeting between the Blackhawks and the Wild this season. Thus far, Minnesota is 3-0 against Chicago while outscoring them 13-6. Minnesota now goes for the sweep over Chicago at the Madison Street Madhouse so this revenge angle isn’t about one game, it’s about preventing a season sweep.
The Wild played yesterday at home against Carolina and won in a shootout, 3-2. The last time they went on the road and beat a team with a winning record was back in January. This past Thursday, the Wild went into New Jersey and lost 7-4. The Wild have one regulation win over their last six games and that occurred against Montreal in a game the Habs outshot Minnesota, 31-22. Without trying to sound redundant, the Wild are a team that does not interest us in the least. They have 14 wins this season in 39 games against top-16 competition. On the road, the Wild have five wins in 22 games against top-16 competition. Devan Dubnyk played yesterday against Carolina so there is a good chance of Darcy Kuemper going today. Regardless, the chances of the Wild sweeping the Blackhawks in a season series is slim and none and slim just left the building.
Chicago was in a four-game funk before going off for a 4-0 win over the Jets on Friday night. For most teams, a four-game losing streak is nothing to get alarmed over but for Chicago, a four-game losing streak to them is like a 10-game losing streak to others. Chicago made some deals at the deadline and perhaps there was an adjustment period or perhaps Cory Crawford had a nagging injury that he was hiding. Whatever the case, Chicago is a powerhouse that does not take losing lightly and they absolutely will have a response to being humiliated on national TV and in front of 50,000 people in that aforementioned Stadium Series game. The Blackhawks will be focused, raring to go and in a very foul mood. The Blackhawks need no introductions. They are a team that is going to the playoffs and they know what it takes once the “second” season starts. They are too experienced and too good to worry about one game or one team during a long regular season. However, this one is different because of three straight losses to an inferior group that isn’t very good to begin with. Chicago sends a message to the Wild here and it’s not, “Hello, how are you”.
Bruce Marshall
Xavier -4.5
Friday night's return to the peach basket era in a game only Dr. Naismith, Ray Mears, Boyd Grant, and certainly Bo Ryan could have appreciated is not necessarily an endorsement for Wisconsin to advance to the Sweet 16. Indeed, the Badgers' 47-43 root canal vs. Pitt in first-round action harkened back to some of Ryan's earlier days in Madison before his teams (finally with proper personnel to switch gears) began to adjust to a more-uptempo style. Ryan successor Greg Gard, who borrowed pages from the old Ryan slowdown playbook in his first weeks on the job before taking the reins off the Badgers in mid-January, reverted to old-style "Bo ball" vs. the Panthers, who were willing to oblige in a grinding, halfcourt, possession-by-possession game. We do not, however, expect Xavier to play along with Wiscy's deliberate preference, as did Pitt on Friday. The active and lengthy Musketeer defenders are adept at extending their pressure tactics in halfcourt defensive sets. Remember, the "X" ranked among the Big East leaders, forcing more than 7 steals pg and more than 14 TOs pg with a quick-handed defense that also presents problems for foes with its size along the perimeter. Badger Gs Bronson Koenig and Zak Showalter are going to be at a more than a slight quickness disadvantage. Meanwhile, Xavier's three-point defense (allowing only 31.5%) also ranked among the Big East leaders and harassed Weber State into submission in Friday's first-round game, when the Wildcats could connect on only 4 of 21 (19%) beyond the arc, with noted Weber dagger-thrower Jeremy Senglin especially frustrated, as he missed all five of his triple attempts. This Wiscy edition is also not as adept at the three-ball as most of the recent Ryan-coached teams, though it did improve to 35% from downtown after struggling from long range earlier in the season. Although the Badgers still play their trademark tough defense, the Musketeers are not going to blink at any Wisconsin grab-and-hold defensive tactics after surviving a season of rough-and-tumble Big East hoops. Explosiveness edge definitely goes to the X and its electric wings Trevon Blueitt (16 ppg) and frosh sensation Edmond Sumner (11 ppg), though it says something about the depth and versatility in HC Chris Mack's lineup that the Musketeers were able to advance on Friday without much help from Blueitt or Sumner (who combined for just 12 points). But Mack can always find contributions from elsewhere (on Friday it was F Jalen Reynolds with 12 points in 18 minutes). The matchups in this one simply do not look promising for Wiscy.