Free Picks for Sunday, March 26th, 2017 from some of the nations best and worst handicappers
DAVE COKIN
NETS VS. HAWKS
PLAY: NETS +6.5
It’s very possible that this is the first time all season I’ve used the lowly Nets as a free play. But Brooklyn has played a bit better of late and while they’re hardly hot, they’re at least apparently trying to play some good ball.
I can’t the same for the Atlanta Hawks, who will make the playoffs but are clearly crawling rather than sprinting to the regular season finish line. Atlanta is not at full strength with Millsap and Bazemore injured and the Hawks certainly don’t appear to be playing with any real urgency right now.
In sizing up the in-season situational trends that apply to this game, it’s actually advantage Brooklyn. The oddsmakers are also making it very tempting to play Atlanta at what looks like a bargain price. So this should be a game where the betting public lays the points with the Hawks. I won’t be at all surprised to see the sharper dollars show on the underdog, and I lean that way myself. Opinion only, but the view from here is Brooklyn plus the points.
Bruce Marshall
South Carolina vs Florida
Play: Florida -3
This is the rubber match between these SEC rivals, who split a pair of games this season, with the home side winning each. While SC was noted for its snarling defense for much of the season (and was again on Friday vs. Baylor), its games have become faster-paced as the campaign has progressed, which did not help SC much in its 81-66 loss at Gainesville on Feb. 21. Which proved Florida can shift gears as needed, especially when soph G KeVaughn Allen (13.4 ppg, but 26 in that 15-point win and 35 on Friday vs. Wisconsin) has located his shooting radar. Speaking of radar, the Gators didn't even register on it from 3-point land in the first meeting at Columbia back on Jan 18, missing all 17 (!) triple attempts, but still losing by only 4.
Jim Feist
Chicago at Milwaukee
Play: Under 203½
Chicago is a dog but #8 in the NBA in points allowed, Milwaukee is also in the Top 10. Chicago is 21-9 under the total following a straight up loss and the under is 37-16 in the Bulls last 53 games following a spread loss. Milwaukee is 5-0 under the total at home. And the Under is 38-18 in the Bucks last 56 games following a straight up win.
Scott Spreitzer
Chicago at Milwaukee
Play: Milwaukee -6½
The Bucks have won 11 of 13 SU as they continue to become the defensive basketball team Jason Kidd wants them to be. They're now tied for 5th with Atlanta in the Eastern Conference playoff standings and host a struggling Chicago squad. The Bulls have dropped nine of their last 12 road games, allowing 111 ppg, falling out of the top eight in the conference. They've been no match for the Bucks this season, dropping all three games by an average margin of 19 ppg, while scoring just 87.3 ppg. Chicago has no answer for Giannis Antetokounmpo, who's averaged 29 ppg on 58% shooting, to go along with 10 rpg & 5 apg in the three meetings. We expect more of the same in this one.
Rob Vinciletti
Phoenix vs. Charlotte
Play: Charlotte -11½
Charlotte will look to bounce back from a home loss and they have covered 5 of 7 off a spread loss. The Suns have failed to cover 6 of 7 and the last 6 vs losing teams as well as 4 straight after scoring 100 or more. Home favorites of 5 or more with a total of 200 or higher that are off a home dog loss have covered 84% long term vs an opponent that scored 110 or more on the road like the Suns.
Teddy Covers
Pelicans vs. Nuggets
Play: Over 228
Don’t sleep on the Nuggets impressive offensive improvement since the All Star Break! The numbers don’t lie. Denver ranks #2 in the NBA in points per possession on offense since the All Star Break –behind only Houston.
And the Nuggets rank among the top five teams in the NBA in net offensive/defensive efficiency since the break as well, right there with the likes of Golden State, Houston, Miami and San Antonio.
The Nuggets have hung 124 or more on their opponents in regulation five times in their last six ballgames. Wilson Chandler is back in the lineup, as is Danilo Gallinari, giving head coach Mike Malone his full nine man rotation moving forward. It’s surely worth noting that the Nuggets didn’t even shoot particularly well to hang 125 on Indiana in their last game, hitting 47% from the floor while missing 20 of their 27 three point shots. But their aggressiveness led to 43 free throw attempts, aggressiveness that’s primed to give New Orleans fits tonight!
But the Pelicans own offensive efficiency has improved by leaps and bounds in the weeks since DeMarcus Cousins arrived in the Big Easy. New Orleans remains a defensive mess, particularly on the perimeter where Alvin Gentry’s rotations have been in flux since the Cousins trade.
With two versatile big men and with Jrue Holiday showing some comfort level at the point guard position, feeding his bigs, the Pelicans are scoring points in bunches too, hanging 107+ four times in their last five games. Look for a ‘track meet’ type game in the Mile High altitude on Sunday, flying Over the total with room to spare.
Marc Lawrence
Miami at Boston
Pick: Miami
Edges - Heat: 24-7 SU and 25-6 ATS last 31 games, including 11-1 ATS as underdogs… Celtics: 5-11 ATS home off a win of 6 or more points this season, including 1-6 ATS following consecutive wins… With the Heat 5-2 SUATS in this series when seeking same season triple revenge-exact, we recommend a 1* play on Miami.
Oskeim Sports
Kentucky at North Carolina
Play: North Carolina -2
North Carolina enters the Elite 8 Round of the NCAA Tournament seeking revenge for a 103-100 loss to the Wildcats on December 17 at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. That defeat is significant in that teams in the Elite 8 looking to avenge a same-season loss are a profitable 17-6-1 ATS.
North Carolina is also bolstered by the fact that the ACC is 4-1 ATS in the Elite 8 Round of the NCAA Tournament, while the Tar Heels are 22-7 ATS overall as a No. 1 seed in the Big Dance. Head coach Roy Williams is a respectable 8-4 SU and 7-5 ATS in the Elite 8 Round.
The Tar Heels possess a potent attack that is 13.5 points per game better than average (85.2 points per game against teams that would combine to allow 71.7 points per game), ranking 9th nationally in scoring offense. North Carolina pounds the offensive glass like no other team in the land, ranking #1 in offensive rebounds per game (15.81).
North Carolina also leads the nation in both total rebounds per game (43.68) and rebound margin (13.1). The Tar heels averaged 83.5 points per game on 47.3% shooting from the field on the road this season, while also averaging 85.6 points on 46.9% shooting from the floor over the last five games.
The Tar Heels take excellent care of the basketball and rebound an inordinate amount of their missed shots, both of which lead to an extremely high shot volume. In fact, North Carolina's shot volume is higher than any other team in major-conference play this season.
However, prior to the Butler game in the Sweet 16, North Carolina had found itself in a shooting slump in its previous four postseason games. The Tar Heels had made half of their 2-pointers and just 32% of their three-pointers, which would be below-average in ACC play.
The Tar Heels survived that mini-slump due to the extraordinary play of Kennedy Meeks, who pulled down 18% of the team's missed shots in the four games leading up to the Sweet 16. Justin Jackson also stepped up during the mini-shooting slump, dishing out more assists than any other Tar Heel (also recorded 5 steals against the Razorbacks in the Round of 32).
Jackson, however, also contributed to the shooting slump, making just 39% of his 2-point shots in the four games prior to the Butler game. Senior Isaiah Hicks also rescued the Tar Heels in postseason play, making 66% of his attempts inside the arc and shooting 88% from the charity stripe.
Kentucky arrives in the Elite 8 following an impressive 86-75 win over UCLA as 1.5-point underdogs. The Wildcats are 13.8 points per game better than average offensively (85.2 point per game against teams that would combine to allow 71.4 points per game) and 4.1 points per game better than average defensively (71.4 points per game to teams that would combine to average 75.5 points per game).
In its 103-100 win over the Tar Heels back in December, Kentucky freshman Malik Monk compiled 47 points on 28 shots, including draining eight 3-pointers. Meanwhile, De'Aaron Fox is coming off a terrific performance against UCLA wherein he had a career-high 39 points on just 20 shots.
The Wildcats demonstrated an ability to win games at the defensive end of the floor with their dominating win over UCLA in the Sweet 16. Kentucky held the Bruins to 15 points below their season average and forced 13 turnovers from a team that had only nine in their first two NCAA Tournament games.
Over its last five games, Kentucky is limiting opponents to just 69.2 points per game on 28.8% shooting from beyond the arc. The Wildcats do an excellent job defending the three-point arc, limiting foes to just 30.8% on the season and 29.6% on the road.
From a technical standpoint, Kentucky is a perfect 4-0 SU and ATS under head coach John Calipari as an underdog in the NCAA Tournament. Interestingly, both teams are averaging more than 85 points per game this season, and squads that average 85+ points per game are 30-7 SU and 27-8-2 ATS in the NCAA Tournament.
North Carolina is 18-7-1 ATS versus SEC foes, 14-5-1 ATS in its last 20 neutral site games and 21-7-2 ATS in its last 30 neutral site games as favorites, while the Wildcats are 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 neutral site affairs, 5-2 ATS in their last seven games versus ACC opposition and 4-1-1 ATS in their last six games versus .601 or greater opposition.
Finally, the favorite is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings in this series, while the Wildcats are 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 clashes with North Carolina.
Buster Sports
IPFW Ipf at Texas A&M Corpus
Play: Over 161
Fort Wayne travels on the road to the American Bank Center, Corpus Christi, Texas to face the Texas A&M-CC Islanders. The Islanders have had an excellent home record as they are 15-1 for the year. Last game in this tourney they beat a good Weber St. club and they have an excellent chance today to win in what should be a high scoring game. We, however are going with the OVER here. In these lower tourney games sometimes defense is left behind as the kids want to get their points. IPFW averages 80 points on the road and the Islanders average 79.8. at home. In their last 5 games IPFW has averaged 87 points and the Islanders in the first two home games in this tourney have averaged 81. Total run and gun game today and look for it to be in the High 80's low 90's at the end.
Mike Rose
South Carolina vs Florida
Play: Under 135
If you had both or either of these teams in the finals of the East region, congrats, you probably won your bracket. You’re also likely a diehard fan of either of these squads. This third go round matches up two of the best defenses in the country with the Cocks ranked No. 2 in efficiency and the Gators No. 4. I’m pretty surprised to see a total in the low 130s for this tilt even though both meetings split against the total in the regular season.
SC has already handled two offenses much better than Florida’s, while the Gators gave up an average of just 52 points per game in the dance before surrendering a fluke 83 to Wiscy. As familiar as these teams are with one another, I can’t help but think the defenses rule much like they did in the first meeting when both clubs combined to shoot 32.3 percent from the field. Points are going to be tough to come by, and if it ultimately turns into the grinder I expect, South Carolina will hold the edge under that scenario as well.
Tony George
South Carolina vs. Florida
Play: South Carolina +3½
Well Frank Martin and his band of merry men are in the Elite 8 after a total destruction of high flying Baylor and also walked through Duke, both teams better than the Gators. Florida won on a miracle shot against Wisconsin in the shot of the tourney to date and blew a huge lead in that game as well and hung on for dear life in OT. I like to fade teams off OT wins the next game and this one is less than 48 hours later to come down off that cloud and get ready for a very physical team in South Carolina who has absolutely peaked and could be considered the Cinderella of this tourney.
You have the better defensive team in this match-up with the SEC Player of the year in Thornwell, who is the best player on the floor today, and they are catching points here gents, and 3.5 points in a game that may come down to the wire is a ton of points with a team who is in a live dog scenario.
Power Sports
Memphis vs. Golden State
Pick: Golden State -9.5
This is a tough spot for the Grizzlies as they have to play the Warriors on the road after a game in San Antonio. At least they had two days off in between. But it won't be enough as the Dubs have started to find their way sans Kevin Durant. They've won six in a row, the last five of which have all been by double digit margins. Making matters worse for Memphis is that Marc Gasol may not play here. They are already w/o Chandler Parsons. My recommendation would be to lay the points.
The two days off between games may not be all that much help to the Grizz anyway. After all, they're just 1-9 ATS when playing w/ 2 days rest exact this season. They're 1-9 SU as well. Thursday in San Antonio, the offense struggled for a second straight game. They scored only 90 points after putting up only 82 in a loss to New Orleans earlier in the week. Worse yet, Gasol was one of only two players to score in double figures vs. the Spurs. The Grizz's only lead Thursday was 3-2.
I keep harping on the fact that Golden State made two straight NBA Finals w/o Durant because it's true. They were the top offense in the league both years. So while missing a player of his caliber is never a good thing, in this case, things will be just fine. The offense has scored at least 112 in each of the last five games. Here at home, they average 119.6 PPG. Golden State has lost twice to Memphis this season, so they'll definitely take this game seriously. I'd look for them to win by another wide margin.
Tennis Insiders
Rafa Nadal v Phillip Kohlschreiber
Pick: Over 21 Games
Nadal has held the edge in this matchup, compiling a 14-1 record. Kohlschreibers only win came on grass, but he's caused Nadal serious problems on hard courts, taking a set in six of their seven meetings, the Over a perfect 7-0 in every contest on hard court. Nadal could be forgiven for carrying a hangover after the defeat handed to him by Federer in Indian Wells & he was unimpressive in his first round match against Dudi Sela. Kohlschreiber is a solid player on all surfaces and has the ability to win this contest if Nadal continues to drop forehands short into his one-handed backhand. Kohlschreiber received a significant confidence boost having recovered from a break down in the third set against Taylor Fritz, expect another big performance from the German.
Jim Feist
Kentucky vs North Carolina
Play: Kentucky +2.5
Kentucky is 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 neutral site games. With Fox leading the way with a career-high 39 points in an 86-75 win, second-seeded UK (32-5) soared past No. 3 UCLA (31-5) and into a sixth Elite Eight appearance in John Calipari's eight seasons Can't trust North Carolina coach Roy Williams in big games.