John Martin
Chicago Bulls +6.5
It's now or never for the Chicago Bulls, who trail the Miami Heat by 1.5 games for the 8th and final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference. I expect a big effort from them today, especially off an upset loss to the 76ers. The Bucks are starting to get a little to much love from the books because they have won 11 of their last 13 games. They are pretty much safely in the playoffs now, and I wouldn't be surprised to see them let up a bit down the stretch. They only beat the Hawks 100-97 last time out as 7-point home favorites, and the Hawks were without Paul Millsap. I think the Bulls take them down to the wire here as they will also be motivated to avoid the season sweep after losing the previous three meetings with the Bucks this season.
Ray Monohan
Grizzlies vs. Warriors
Play: Grizzlies +11
This play just missed out on our premium card. The Grizzlies are one of four teams to defeat Golden State inside their own building and they'll get a chance to do it again here on Sunday. At this kind of spread, there is value.
Golden State just hasn't been the same since Durant went down. They've seen the Spurs catch them and things just haven't been as smooth sailing.
Against Memphis here on Sunday, they certainly aren't going to have a walk in the park. The Grizzlies are extremely tough defensively and will cause a lot of fits here.
Some trends to note. Grizzlies are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall, and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game. Warriors are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games following a ATS loss.
This is just too many points. Memphis should be able to keep this one close.
Doc's Sports
Blazers vs. Lakers
Play: Blazers -6½
We are always looking for a chance to fade the Lakers and tonight we think is a good spot to do just that. We always look to take the Blazers in this matchup when the time is right because even when the Lakers were good and the Blazers stunk Portland always rose up and played well in this matchup. And they have actually now covered in 20 of the last 28 meetings in Los Angeles. You don’t get many trends that are as strong as that over such a long period of time. Portland is being punished here for a back-to-back but they are 6-0 ATS in their last six with no rest so we don’t think it will be an issue. They have won and covered in five of six and they are playing very well right now. LA has covered three of their last four but this team is just no good and can’t play hard for long stretches. They also need to lose in order to secure their draft pick this year. We think the road team can win this one by 7+ and a double-digit win would not be a shock.
Dave Price
Pelicans vs. Nuggets
Play: Nuggets -6½
The Denver Nuggets are on a mission to make the playoffs. They lead the Blazers by one game for the 8th spot in the West. They have gone 6-2 SU & 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games overall. That includes back-to-back upset victories over the Cavaliers (126-113) as 2-point dogs and the Pacers (125-117) as 1.5-point dogs. Now they host the Pelicans, who are 5 games back of them and essentially eliminated from contention. And the Pelicans could be without DeMarcus Cousins here tonight, who is questionable with an ankle injury. The Nuggets are fully healthy right now, which is a big reason for their recent surge. They are a team that nobody wants to face right now. The Nuggets are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.
Jack Jones
Kentucky vs. North Carolina
Play: Under 161
This is one of the highest totals of the 2017 NCAA Tournament. The previous high was the 167.5-point total between UCLA and Kentucky last round in which we saw 161 combined points and the UNDER cashing. I think the value is with the UNDER in this game as well.
The betting public is infatuated with the 103-100 game these teams played back in December. But that was a complete aberration as there was no defense played whatsoever. I like the fact that both teams are familiar with each other having already played once this year. I also think this one will be played much closer to the vest with what's at stake, and it won't just be a run-and-gun type of game like the first meeting.
The reason Kentucky has made it this far and finished the regular season strong is because it is one of the most improved defensive teams in the country. The Wildcats have won 14 straight coming in, and the UNDER is 12-1 in their last 13 games overall. It's not a coincidence as they haven't allowed more than 77 points in any of their last 13 games, and they've given up 70 or fewer in 10 of those.
UNC is 10-1 UNDER when revenging a loss vs opponent over the past two seasons. Kentucky is 8-1 UNDER in all NCAA Tournament games over the past three seasons. The UNDER is 7-0 in Wildcats last seven games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. The UNDER is 9-2-1 in Tar Heels last 11 games following a win.
SPORTS WAGERS
Florida -3½ over South Carolina
Targeting overreactions is a chief criterion in our selection process and anyone that bet against South Carolina would absolutely have to be reluctant to do so again after they laid waste to the Baylor Bears on Friday. That wasn’t even a game, as the Gamecocks made the Bears look like a disorganized high school team most of the night. The Gamecocks are coming off dominating performances over Marquette, Duke and Baylor. Two of those three victories, against Marquette and Baylor were by 20 points. South Carolina is a resounding 3-0 against the number in the first three rounds and if you’re thinking about jumping on them now, well, let’s just say that you’re too late to the party. We had the Gamecocks versus Marquette and Duke but bet against them on Friday and are not about to abandon that plan based on one game. We actually get an even better number here because of the way the Gamecocks annihilated the Bears.
The Florida Gators own two distinct advantages against South Carolina that the victims of the Gamecocks did not have: familiarity and a great defense. The Gators and South Carolina play in the same conference and have already met twice this year. The Gamecocks won the first time by four points in mid January back in South Carolina but Florida took apart the Gamecocks in the rematch back at The Swamp much more recently on February 21. The Gators were a 7½-point favorite that day and while the circumstances are different today and the stakes are higher, it shows that the Gators made the right adjustments. Florida hung 81 points on the Gamecocks in that aforementioned game and won by 15 points. At that time, the Gators had just lost John Egbunu to an injury and were going through an adjustment period.
The Gators can match up to the Gamecocks, let alone any team in the country in terms of defensive prowess (they are ranked fourth in defensive efficiency according to KenPom). When compared to the Gamecocks, the Gators are far more proficient on the offensive end of things compared to their divisional rivals. The Gators’ 26th ranked offensive efficiency rating was achieved against the second toughest defensive schedule in America in terms of strength. The bottom line is that if there is anyone that can diagnose and dissect this Gamecocks defense, it’s the boys from Florida. They were able to get past the vaunted defenses of both Wisconsin and Virginia while South Carolina played two very flawed defenses in the first two rounds before playing a Baylor team that looked downright unprepared or flat.
Breaking down the numbers can be a challenging and fun exercise but no matter how you break them down over 35 games and not just three (in this event), the Gators are the superior squad on both offense and defense. Throw in the overreaction on the Gamecocks destroying brackets and bankrolls and the choice here becomes an easy one. We completely understand the reluctance to bet against South Carolina but win or lose, it’s the right play based on everything we have covered above. It's a cheap price to pay on the superior squad and one that will likely bring the Gamecocks back to Earth.
SPORTS WAGERS
ANAHEIM -½ +119 over N.Y. Rangers
Regulation only. At home, Anaheim is 28-8-4. On the road, the Ducks are a .500 hockey team at 15-15-7 so securing home-ice advantage in the playoffs for as long as possible is something the Ducks are focused on. Anaheim is also warm with three wins in a row and five victories over its last six games. Riding the hot hand of Jonathan Bernier, the Ducks have allowed just 10 goals against over their past six games. With Gibson out, Bernier is 9-2-1 in his past 12 games with a shutout, a 1.89 GAA and .940 save percentage.
The Rangers went into Los Angeles last night and defeated a defeated Kings’ squad, 3-0. L.A. was playing with their heads down again because they are going to be watching the playoffs from the rail again. Henrik Lundqvist will play his first game in nearly three weeks here. A 35-year-old with three weeks off and having an inconsistent year is worth fading against a quality team. Aside from that, the Rags puck possession numbers continue to be weak and the opposition is taking advantage. New York’s recent form suggests fading them when they’re playing upper echelon teams is a good idea. Over their last eight games, the Rags lost to Carolina, beat a poor Detroit team, lost to TB, lost to Florida, beat a floundering Minnesota squad, lost to New Jersey and lost to NYI before beating that dejected L.A. team last night. The Rangers have a great road record but that is more an anomaly than anything else that is in line for regression. That road record regression likely begins here.
Larry Ness
New Orleans vs. Denver
Pick: New Orleans +6.5
The 35-37 Denver Nuggets have won six of eight and remain in control of the 8th and final playoff spot in the West but that margin is not large, as the Nuggets lead the Trail Blazers by just 1 1/2 games. Denver last made the postseason in 2013 and will be tested down the stretch, as after Sunday's home game with the Pelicans, the Nuggets head out on the road for five straight games.
The 30-42 Pelicans are not officially eliminated form postseason play but New Orleans sits five games behind the Nuggets and would have to first climb over the Mavs and Blazers. The Pelicans have played much better of late with five victories in their last seven contests. All Star Anthony Davis comes in with four straight double-doubles and scored 50 against Denver in a 107-102 loss on Oct. 26 in the season opener for both teams. Davis averages 27.8 & 11.9 on the season and fellow All Star, DeMarcus Couisins (who averaged 27.8 & 10.6 while with Sacramento), has picked up his production by averaging 28.3 PPG in his last three contests. PG Jrue Holiday (15.8 & 7.2 APG) continues to put up solid numbers while SG Jordan Crawford is averaging 13.6 points on 50.5 percent shooting (47.9 from beyond the arc) in nine games since being signed as a free agent.
Denver's 6-10 center Nikola Jokic recorded 30 points, 17 rebounds and five assists in Friday’s win. He's averaging 16.4 & 9.5 on the season and is becoming a star. He owns seven double-doubles and three triple-doubles in the last 12 games. It's also good news for the Nuggets that leading scorer Danilo Gallinari (17.7) scored 21 and grabbed 11 rebounds on Friday in his first game back from missing four with a knee injury, while Wilson Chandler (16.2-6.5) has averaged 21 points on 60-percent shooting in two games since returning from a groin injury,
The Pelicans are still working towards melding Cousins and Davis but the duo has looked pretty good as of late. The two big men have combined to score at least 60 points in each of the last two games and the Pelicans had won three straight before Friday's 117-107 loss in Houston to the Rockets. The Kings may only be 11-24 SU on the road but they are a much more respectable 16-18-1 ATS.
Denver needs this one in a big way,as five road games are up next (Nuggets are just 14-20 SU on the road. Nuggets may be tight and I want the points with the Pelicans. Don't forget, Davis' had 50 points and 15 rebounds the last time the teams met back in the season-opener against the Nuggets.
Will Rogers
Memphis vs. Golden State
Pick: Golden State -10.5
The set-up: The Spurs won last night and are exactly two games back of the 58-14 Golden State Warriors, as both teams have 10 games left in the regular season. However, since San Antonio owns the tie-breaker, the Warriors are well-aware that their lead the Spurs is actually just one game. Tonight in Oakland, the Warriors will host the 40-32 Memphis Grizzlies. The Grizzlies are currently the No. 7 seed in the West, 18 games back of the Warriors, but they have won two of the three meetings with Golden State this season.
Memphis: Memphis is in no danger of missing the playoffs but in order to avoid playing either the Spurs or Warriors in the first round, they need to catch the Thunder, who are the sixth-seed and 1 1/2 games ahead of them. The Grizzlies handed the Warriors one of their four home losses this season with an overtime triumph at Oracle Arena back on Jan. 6, but Memphis is a so-so 17-16 since that victory and return to Oakland having dropped the first two of a four-game road trip. The team's "Big 3" is familiar, led by PG Conley (20.0-3.6-6.3), center Gasol (19.9-6.2-4.6) and PF Randolph (13.9 & 8.1), who now comes off the bench.
Golden State. The Warriors have rebounded from that worrisome 5-8 stretch and enter this game on a six-game winning streak. Word is that Kevin Durant (25.3-8.2-4.8 ) is nearing a return from his knee injury and he will accompany the team on its upcoming trip to Houston and San Antonio before being reevaluated Wednesday. Curry (24.9-4.5-6.4) has snapped out of a recent slump and is shooting 28-for-60 (46.7%) from three-point range during the winning streak, all after sitting out a loss to San Antonio on March 11 to get some rest.
The pick: Memphis, which has been a troublesome opponent for the Warriors (see above) opens a rugged four-game sequence for the team, featuring this home against Memphis, at Houston and San Antonio on a back-to-back nights, then back home against Houston. How Golden State does in this stretch, will go a log way towards determining if the Warriors can win the West. Golden State leads the NBA by a wide margin in shooting (49.3 percent), while Memphis ranks dead-last at 43.4 percent.
OC Dooley
Bulls / Bucks Over 201
At most offshore locations this total opened at 202 points and has since decreased giving us market value. It is easy to see why this spot was low-balled as Milwaukee during the month of March has gone 11-3 "under", but All-Star Giannis Antetokounmpo is coming off a monster 34 point performance while hauling down 13 rebounds. Offensively challenged Chicago is coming off a disastrous defensive performance allowing 117 points versus a Philadelphia contingent that was limited to just TEN available players. Today's ABC nationally televised tilt (Thunder/Rockets going at the same time as this game) features a pair of MVP candidates and an enormous total, but we have more wiggle room with this "non" televised tilt