Free Picks for Sunday, March 5th, 2017 from some of the nations best and worst handicappers
DAVE COKIN
DENVER VS SOUTH DAKOTA ST
PLAY: DENVER +3
As soon as I saw the opening line on Sunday’s Summit League tournament matchup between Denver and South Dakota State, I knew I was going to end up looking at the underdog side.
The reason has nothing to do with the matchup, the stats, or virtually anything else. The very first thing I learned about gambling is that the house isn’t stupid. Translated, as far as sports betting is concerned, that means if it looks easy, it probably isn’t.
That’s the first thing that crossed my mind when I saw South Dakota State opening as -1 against Denver. That was a line that had to go up. The Jackrabbits are coming into the event hot, with three straight impressive wins. Denver arrives in opposite form. The Pioneers have lost three in a row. These teams met last Saturday and it was blowout city. South Dakota State took control early and the game was never competitive. Additionally, this game is being played at Sioux Falls, so while it’s not technically a home game for the Jackrabbits, it’s the next best thing. Brookings is a stone’s throw away. South Dakota State can beat zone defenses and Mike Daum, a legit superstar at this level, is on a phenomenal roll right now.
There was never a question in my mind that this number would go up quickly, and that the overwhelming ticket volume would be on the small favorite. It’s absolutely conceivable that South Dakota State will indeed dominate Denver as they did one week ago and roll to a comfortable win. But this is the type of game where I tend to be ultra-contrarian and put way more faith in the guys who post the numbers as opposed to those who try to beat the numbers. That’s what I’ll be doing here. Denver plus the points.
Marc Lawrence
Pacers vs. Hawks
Play: Pacers +3
Edges - Hawks: 7-13-2 ATS as favorites on Sundays, including 1-11-2 ATS versus sub .525 foes. Pacers: 6-2 SUATS with double-digit loss revenge this season against foes off a loss. With the Pacers 7-0 ATS on Sundays, including 5-0 ATS this season, we recommend a 1* play on Indiana.
Ben Burns
Thunder vs. Mavs
Play: Mavs -1
The Mavs are playing better of late and I won with them in each of their last two games here. They've quietly covered four straight overall, going 3-0 SU/ATS their last three here at Dallas. I also successfully played against the Thunder recently, in their loss at Portland. They'd follow that up with another loss (at Phoenix) the next night. That brings the Thunder to 12-19 on the road. By comparison, the Mavs' 17-14 record at home looks pretty good.
The Mavs only outscore teams by a modest 100.1 to 97.2 margin here. However, the Thunder get outscored by a 108.5 to 102.5 margin on the road. The Thunder have had their way in the series of late but don't be surprised when that changes tonight.
Rob Vinciletti
Boston at Phoenix
Play: Boston -6
The Celtics are off a big win in LA and shot over 50% from the field. They have come back to cover 7 of 10 after these 50% games and have won and covered every time this year on the road if the total I 220 or higher. The Celtics are also 7-2 ats off 2 wins. The Suns have failed to cover in 5 of 7 of late vs winning teams. For our System we want to play on rested road teams that scored 110 or more in a -5 or higher road favored win and cover vs an opponent like the Suns that covered at home by 7 or more and scored 110 or more. These road teams have covered the last 8 times going back the last few season.
Tony Karpinski
Thunder vs. Mavs
Play: Mavs -1
Dallas is tough at home and they keep to continue to win at home if they want to make the playoffs. OKC is just 12-19 on the road this season and Westbrook isn't getting much help on the offensive side. Dallas has to string together some stops vs Russel Westbrook and try to take care of business. Dallas has been getting some very good play from Seth Curry and Harrison Barnes especially at home. Nerlens Noel scored 15 points and grabbed 17 rebounds in his first start for the Mavericks on Friday since being traded from Philly and will be a key in this game.
Power Sports
Campbell vs. Winthrop
Pick: Winthrop
Top seeds can certainly be the beneficiaries of good luck in the conference tourneys. Such is the case here w/ Winthrop in the Big South. The top seeded Eagles may very well have been an underdog, even on their home floor, had they drawn a more talented UNC Asheville team in this spot. But instead, their opponent is Sunday's final is #7 seed Campbell, who not only upset UNC Asheville in the quarterfinals, but then got a fortunate draw themselves in the semis against Radford.
Campbell has played four lined games this year and covered them all. Three of those have come over the last week. Remember that the Fighting Camels (yes, that's their nickname!) even had to play an "Opening Round" game in this tourney, where they promptly eliminated lowly Presbyterian, one of the worst teams in the entire country. Then came the shocker of this tournament, an 81-79 upset of UNC Asheville as 12-pt underdogs. Leading scorer Chris Clemons had a performance for the ages there, scoring a conference record 51 points. So that's how they pulled the upset. The Camels then got to avoid the 3-seed Liberty in the semis because they were upset by Radford. It was an easy 66-50 win Friday. Clemons scored 33 more there against an opponent that simply wasn't competitive.
This is a home game for Winthrop. So far, the Eagles have been shaky in this Tournament. So against an underdog playing w/ "house money," I can see there being trepidation laying double digits. But the Eagles swept the regular season series from the Fighting Camels, winning by 9 and 14 points. I think Campbell may just be "happy to be here" and the lights may very well be "too bright" for them. Clemons has the hot hand, but overall Winthrop is the far more talented team. The Eagles had a really dominant regular season w/ their three Big South losses coming by a total of eight points. They've lost only two games in 2017. The extra tournament game Campbell had to play could very well catch up with them here.
Larry Ness
Golden State vs. New York
Pick: Golden State
"Stop the presses!" The Warriors have lost consecutive regular-season games. Kevin Durant went down with a knee injury in the Warriors' 112-108 loss at Washington on Tuesday and then Golden State shot a season-low 38.6 percent in its worst offensive output since March 19, 2016 on Thursday, a 94-87 loss at Chicago (the 87 points were a season-low for Golden St). The problem hasn't been hard to isolate. Curry is a woeful 4-for-31 (12.9%) from beyond the arc in the first three games of this current five-game road trip, while fellow Splash Brother Klay Thompson hasn't much better, going 7-for-33 (21.2%).
That dynamic duo plus the entire Golden State team must now get used to life without Durant, who will be out at least four weeks! The Warriors play today at MSG against the 25-37 Knicks, then wrap the trip in Atlanta tomorrow. A couple of shots we normally make did not fall," guard Stephen Curry told reporters. "That's not the reason we lost. We just need to understand that early in games, when we have new rotations, we cannot take our foot off the gas pedal. Every possession is important for us to pick up a rhythm without (Durant)." In the Knicks, the Warriors get a struggling team which is playing a rare home game in a stretch that sees them playing 10 of 13 away from home.
The Knicks lost 105-102 at Philadelphia on Friday, as Carmelo Anthony went 5-for-18 from the floor. Anthony (23.3-6.0) is shooting just 38.2 percent in the five games since the All-Star break (2-3) but the good news is, Kristaps Porzingis (18.2-7.1) seems over a recent ankle injury, averaging 19 points and eight rebounds in two games since returning from a two-game absence The Knicks are 12th in the Eastern Conference, trailing the Detroit Pistons by five games for the eighth and final spot. New York is going nowhere, as after this home game with the Warriors, the Knicks play their next four games on the road as the Garden hosts the Big East tournament.
Golden St's NBA record of 146 straight regular season games without back-to-back losses has now been snapped, so it's time to focus on avoiding the team's first three-game losing streak since November of 2013. The Knicks should play the perfect foil, as the Warriors have won the last five meetings between the two teams, all by at least 13 points. Lay it with Golden St.
Will Rogers
Minnesota vs. Wisconsin
Pick: Wisconsin
The set-up: Wisconsin was ranked 22nd in last Monday's poll but win or lose here, the Badgers will likely drop out of the next AP poll. The Badgers were once 21-3, including 10-1 in the Big Ten but have lost five of six, with all five losses coming to unranked teams while Wisconsin was ranked (more in a bit). Wisconsin (22-8 / 11-6 in Big Ten) wraps up its regular season by hosting the 23-7 (11-6 in Big Ten play) Minnesota Golden Gophers, who in contrast to the Badgers, have won eight in a row under fourth-year coach Richard Pitino to complete the best single-season win improvement in school history.
Minnesota: Pitino led Minnesota to the NIT title in his first year, as the Golden Gophers finished with 25 wins. However, an 18-15 (6-12 Big Ten) season followed, before last year's 'nightmare,' when Minnesota went just 8-23, including 2-16 in Big Ten play. Minnesota went 12-1 in non-conference play to open the 2016-17 seaosn but after opening 3-1 in Big Ten play, lost five in a row from Jan. 11 through Jan. 28. However, EIGHT wins in a row have followed and if Minnesota beats Wisconsin, the Gophers will claim the No. 2 seed in the Big Ten tourney!
Wisconsin: Despite all its recent woes, the Badgers will assuredly claim their 19th consecutive NCAA tournament berth. Amazingly, if Wisconsin beats Minnesota, it will claim the No. 2 seed and get a double bye in the Big Ten tournament. The 6-8 Hayes (13.5 & 6.2) was a preseason All American but hasn't played like one while guard Koenig (14.1) hasn't been quite the same since being slowed by an injury. The one constant has been the 6-10 Happ (14.0 & 8.9), who has been Wisconsin's best performer all season.
The pick: Here's the rub. In losing five straight games to unranked teams while being ranked, Wisconsin has tied an NCAA record no team wants to share. If Wisconsin loses here (Gophers are not ranked), it will break that record. Then again, if Wisconsin wins, it's the No. 2 seed in the Big Ten tourney. Wow! Wisconsin has won 20 of its last 22 home games (including a 14-2 mark this season) and Minnesota hasn't won in Madison since 2009. Expect the Badgers to 'rise from the dead' and end Minnesota's eight-game winning streak.
Jim Feist
Michigan at Nebraska
Pick: Under
Michigan heads out on the road, #3 in the Big 10 in scoring defense. The Under is 11-5 in the Wolverines last 16 road games, plus 11-5 under away against a team with a winning home record. Nebraska prefers a slower tempo, #13 in the conference in scoring (second to last). The Under is 6-2 in Cornhuskers last 8 home games vs. a team with a road winning percentages of less than .400.
Art Aronson
Utah vs. Sacramento
Play: Sacramento +9
Yesterday we gave you a free play on the Miami Heat. Miami actually opened as a 2-point underdog, but early betting swung it the other way, with the Heat then becoming the 2-point fav. Then shortly after that it was announced that the starters would be sitting for the Cavs and the line ballooned to -8. Miami would roll to a big victory in the end, but we would have still liked the Heat at +2 if LeBron James and company had in fact suited up for the visitors, instead of being rested in the second game of the back-to-back. And that’s because the “situation” and the numbers were both working heavily in favor of Miami in our opinion. If you didn’t get a chance to read the analysis on the Heat winner, we think it’s worth a look right here:
If you’re into stats and trends like us, then you’ll definitely want to give the Heat a second look on Saturday night. Cleveland just won 135-130 in Atlanta last night. The Heat also played on Friday, but will be out to atone for a lacklustre 110-99 setback at Orlando. Note that Miami plays with revenge after falling 114-84 to the Cavs back on December 9th. Also note that Cleveland is just 3-8 ATS this year when playing on back-to-back days, while Miami is 9-2 ATS in the same position and 19-13 ATS in revenging a loss against an opponent. Consider the HEAT in this matchup.
The Jazz are the ones playing with revenge today, but note that they’re just 13-14 ATS this season in trying to revenge a loss against an opponet. Also note that Utah is just 13-16 ATS on the road and only 8-11 ATS after a win by ten points or more. The Kings may be without DeMarcus Cousins, but they won’t be going down without a fight, note that Sacramento is 8-2 ATS this year already after three or more consecutive SU losses and 2-0 ATS when playing with three or more days rest. Consider the Kings in this matchup.
David Banks
Thunder @ Mavericks
Pick: Thunder -1
NBA leading scorer Russell Westbrook is on pace to break the league record for triple-doubles in a season. He recorded his 29th triple-double of the season in a 118-110 win over New Orleans on Sunday night and has a chance to hit 30 when the Thunder plays Dallas on Sunday night. Westbrook scored 41 points in the win over the Pelicans. He would need 12 more triple-doubles to tie the NBA record of 41 held by the legendary Oscar Robertson.
Oklahoma City has won three straight since the All-Star break, though none of their opponents is in contention for a playoff spot. Dallas (23-35) is in the same boat. Mavericks’ owner Mark Cuban and the front office staff decided to look toward the future when they waived point guard Deron Williams and sent Andrew Bogut to Philadelphia.
Harrison Barnes (20.0 ppg) leads the NBA’s absolute worst scoring team. The Mavs average just 97.8 points per game. The one caveat is that Dallas does play solid defense and ranks fourth in the league in points allowed (100.0) per game. Still, the only time the two teams met this season – back on Jan. 26 – the Thunder put up 107 with Westbrook getting 45. The Thunder star did not record a triple-double against the Mavs grabbing just eight rebounds and dishing out only three assists. Dallas played shorthanded that night as well as four of their top five scorers sat out. Barnes scored 31 in the 107-98 loss.
Carmine Bianco
Osasuna at Las Palmas
Play: Las Palmas -1
Sunday's Free Play is a play on home side Las Palmas who play extremely well at home and teams somehow seem to struggle when visiting the Canary island, they were unlucky not to get the full three points last time out at Real Madrid, letting a 3-1 lead slip away late as Madrid scored twice in the final 5. They'll play an Osasuna side that has gone 1-3-8 away from home this season and if they can play the same attacking style they did against Madrid they should put the visitors away today.
Harry Bondi
DALLAS (-1) over Oklahoma City
Very quietly, the Mavericks have been playing much better basketball and have been cashing tickets. Dallas has covered four in a row and 12 of its last 17 games overall, and it has also been very good at home, going 20-11 ATS this season. Conversely, the Thunder has failed to cover four of its last five road games and is just 13-18 ATS away from home this season. This will also be their third road game in four days. Mavs win (and cover) again!
Brad Wilton
My Sunday comp play will be to "lay it" with the Hawkeyes in the regular season home finale over the Nittany Lions.
Here we have "hot" versus "not" on Sunday, as Penn State has dropped 4 in a row and 6 of their last 8 straight up, and they have failed in 5 of their last 8 games against the spread.
Iowa's young talent is getting "bubbly" at the right time, as the Hawkeyes have claimed the win in 3 in a row both straight up and against the spread, and straight up victories in 6 of their last 9 overall both SU and ATS!
Penn State did win last year's lone meeting, and in doing so pushed the series mark for the home team to 13-6 against the spread the last 19 times the teams have faced one another.
Iowa thinking about some kind of postseason tournament stays hot today at home.
4* IOWA