Free Picks: Free Service Plays for Sunday, May 1

DAVE COKIN

HORNETS @ HEAT
PLAY: HEAT -6.5

Here we go, Game Seven between Charlotte and Miami as each team looks to keep its season alive for at least a little longer.

There isn’t much argument to the opinion that home teams have a substantial edge in these climactic games. The host team has garnered the victory in a whopping 80% of these games, and that is in NBA playoff history. Obviously, not all those victories were games in which the spread was also covered, but it’s nonetheless a strong starting point.

I see a few things here that I believe favor Miami. One is the experience factor. They’re one of the oldest teams in the NBA in terms of average age. While I guess one might argue that could be a sign they might wear down, I don’t buy that viewpoint and regard the experience factor as a plus.

I’m also wondering about the mindset of the Hornets. Not that they’re going to have tail between the legs syndrome necessarily, but losing Game Six when they had a great chance to close out the series at home is not what I’d call a confidence builder.

Finally, there’s the betting line and what it indicates to me. Games One and Two were Miami -4.5. Now here we are in Game Seven, the Hornets have proven they can win on this court in a 3-3 series, yet the line opened at -6.5, which is where it still sits as I’m writing this column. The oddsmakers saw fit to bump the line up two points from where it was at the start of this series.

No doubt the Game Seven history as a whole has something to do with that, but I also believe it’s an indicator by the guys who post the numbers. The number is geared to draw at least some Charlotte action, and mission accomplished on that count so far, as there are more tickets on the Hornets than the Heat right now. Well supported public dogs have gone belly up so far in the playoffs and I expect a similar result here. I’m laying the points with Miami in this one.

Sleepyj

Atlanta +1.5 -110

This RL wager hasn't been released yet, but -110 area seems fine..I'd lay up to -125/-130....Lackey got bopped in his last start and the Cubs are not healthy right now...No Schwarber, Montero and Bryant is now day-today...Cubs can overlook a bad Braves bunch right here..Braves got Teheran on the mound and he will be gunning for his 1st win of the season...Braves actually looked decent in the Boston series..They scored runs and applied pressure to the Boston pitchers and came away with some hits in bunches...Braves got a win in that series closer..They opened up yesterday with a loss @Cubs 6-1 Final....ML price of -222 for Lackey Vs. Teheran seems crazy IMO..Whenever I take a +RL, I have to make sure I feel the team is hitting well and the pitcher is solid..Are they a live dog here?...Sure they are and I'll grab the +1.5 with the leagues worst team.

Grand Salami Under ?...I never make this wager and I won't today, but I ton of games that I have numbers for show a bunch of unders come in today..Side of caution for the over bettors..Today might be a bad, bad day if you ride the overs..Just what I see here.

Rob Vinciletti

Houston vs. Oakland
Play: Oakland -140

Oakland fits a powerful MLB Database system that is 22-5 and plays on home favorites off a home favored win that scored 2 or less runs on 5+ hits, vs an opponent off a road dog loss that scored 2 or less runs and had 4 or less hits like Houston. The Astros are 1-7 vs Divisional teams, 3-11 on the road and 0-4 vs left handers hitting just .229. Hill is Pitching for Oakland and he has a 2.42 Era which is better than the 5.56 Era that D. Fister has.

Marc Lawrence

San Francisco vs New York
Play: San Francisco +126

Edges - Giants: Madison Bumgarner 3-0 with a 0.78 ERA career team starts in this park; and 9-3 last twelve team starts in May, including 5-1 away. Mets: Noah Syndergaard 0-2 with 6.00 ERA career team start in this series. With Bumgarner in commanding KW form with 32 K’s and 5 BB’s his last four starts, we recommend a 1* play on San Francisco.

Mike Lundin

Angels vs. Rangers
Play: Under 8½

The under is 4-1 in the last five meetings between the Texas Rangers and the Los Angeles Angels, and odds are Sunday's contest at Arlington will stay under the total as well.

Cole Hamels (3-0, 2.52) will take the ball for the Rangers coming off a solid outing against Houston on April 20 when he held the Astros to one run on five hits in 6 2/3 innings. The left-hander returns to the mound after a 10-day layoff because of a sore groin, and facing LAA could be just what the doctor ordered as he has a .160 BAA against the current members of the Angels.

The Halos turn to Garrett Richards (1-3, 2.35 ERA) who went 0-3 over his first four turns this season despite allowing three earned runs or fewer in each outing. He did get some run support in a 6-1 win against the Royals his last time out, but that will likely not be the case today.

Under is 9-2-1 in Angels last 12 overall and 8-2 in their last 10 games vs. a left-handed starter. Under is 6-1 in Rangers last seven overall.

Scott Spreitzer

Rockies vs. Diamondbacks
Play: Diamondbacks -108

Arizona will look to avoid a home sweep at the hands of division rival Colorado. The Diamondbacks looks to be getting "just what the doctor ordered," facing Rockies' hurler Chad Bettis. The "Snakes" crushed Bettis in his first start this season, but that was nothing new. Arizona has tagged Bettis for 16 earned runs, 37 base runners, and four home runs, in six appearances against them, spanning 19 2/3 IP. That's a hefty 7.31 ERA, 1.88 WHIP, and a 1.83 HRs/9 IP ratio. Shelby Miller could sure use a decent start. He's off a rough April, but faces a team he dominated in three home starts over the previous three seasons. Miller was also at his best in daytime action from 2013 through 2015. We also believe this is a case of good timing. Miller's mechanics got back on track last time out, and as reported, his pitches had quality movement. But because of his April struggles, we're getting a nice price with the home team. Arizona enters on a 32-14 run and averaging 6 rpg against bullpens averaging at least 4 IP per game. Colorado's overused pen fits the bill.

Matt Josephs

Tigers vs. Twins
Play: Over 9

Mike Pelfrey is 0-4 with a 6.33 ERA and a WHIP of 1.968 in four starts for the Tigers. He has struggled to do anything right striking out just nine while walking 12 over 21.3 innings of work. Pelfrey has pitched terribly this season, but has three unders because Detroit has scored just one run in his last three starts. Minnesota's offense is mediocre, but even they should be able to feast on the awful righty. Ricky Nolasco has a 5.02 ERA in two home outings for the Twins. Last year it was the best of times (5.3 IP 0 ER 7 K 3 BB) and the worst of times (3 IP 6 ER 6 H 2 K 4 BB) for Nolasco when it came to facing Detroit. Mike Aviles (8-14), Miguel Cabrera (3-11), Jose Iglesias (3-3), Ian Kinsler (7-17), Victor Martinez (5-11) and JD Martinez (5-15) all hit the Twins starter well. The Tigers have scored 37 runs in their last six games and have gone over in six of their last eight overall. These two have gone over in 13 of their last 21 meetings in Minnesota. I think this one does too.

Cajun Sports

Chicago vs. Baltimore
Play: Under 7.5

The Chicago White Sox were able to finally get the goose egg off the board in this series after dropping the first two games in Baltimore they rebounded and got the win on Saturday 8 to 7. A rare high scoring affair for both teams with the White Sox 6-15-3 Under on the year and the Orioles are 7-13-2 Under this season. Although the first two games in this series were also high scoring with the first game going Over with a final of 10 to 2 and the second game had a final of 6 to 3 which pushed. We look for that type of scoring to end with Chris Sale on the bump for the White Sox he has posted a record of 5-0 SU with an ERA of 1.66 and a WHIP of 0.68 on the season. For the Orioles Ubaldo Jimenez will get the call and he is 1-2 SU with an ERA of 3.91 and a WHIP of 1.57 on the season. We note the Orioles are a perfect 0-7 Under in his last seven trips to the bump overall and 5-11-1 Under when Jimenez starts with four days of rest. The White Sox have posted a record of 22-47-5 Under when they are facing a starter whose has a WHIP of more than 1.30 and we noted Jimenez has a WHIP of 1.57 on the season. Chicago has gone Under at a rate of 6-17-4 Under their last twenty-seven games overall. When the Sox take the field on the real stuff they have gone 5-19-4 Under their last twenty-eight. With Sale coming off a Quality Start his last trip to the bump the Sox have gone 6-15-3 Under in his next outing. The projected Umpire for today will be Gerry Davis and the Under has cashed in each of his last five behind home plate. Davis has produced a 0-4-1 Under record his last five behind home plate in games involving Baltimore. He has almost the same record in games involving the White Sox where he has posted a record of 1-4 Under in those contests. Our BbTPR Index projects a total runs scored average of 4.78 runs on Sunday in this matchup. Our MLB SPMatrix projects Sale and the White Sox allowing 1.93 runs and projecting Jimenez and the Orioles to allow 3.08 runs on Sunday. The combination of these factors calls for a play on the low side in this matchup on Sunday afternoon.

Jim Feist

Royals at Mariners
Pick: Under

Safeco Field in Seattle is a huge park, great for pitchers. Kansas City has great defense in the field and a strong bullpen if needed. Starter Ian Kennedy (2.77 ERA) is throwing well, with very good control. He faces a Seattle offense that is 21st in baseball in on base percentage and Kansas City is on 15-5-2 run under the total. Seattle starter Taijuan Walker (2-0, 1.44 ERA) is off to a great start with 25 strikeouts and three walks in 25 innings. Walker held the Astros to one run on six hits and a walk while striking out 11 over seven innings in Monday's victory. Walker induced a brilliant 18 swinging strikes in 118 pitches as he had the Astros waving all night. He nearly doubled his strikeout total for the season, raising it from 14 to 25, and his 11 strikeouts matched his high from last season, accomplished twice. Seattle is on a 9-4-1 run under the total, and when these teams clash the under is 6-2-2 here at Safeco.

Bruce Marshall

Cleveland at Philadelphia
Pick: Cleveland

Cleveland has been hitting in some bad luck the past two days, with several tomahawk shots landing in the gloves of the Phillies. The Phils' surprising 5-game win streak is unlikely to continue if Sunday starter Vince Velasquez can't reverse his recent downturn after two quality starts to open the season. Prefer Tribe starter Danny Salazar, with a 2.35 ERA and 1.04 WHIP to date.

Neil The Greek

Pacers at Raptors
Play: Pacers +6

Indiana dominated the Raptors last time out to force a game 7. But in reality they dominated game 5 in Toronto before the Raptors caught fire and went on a ridiculous 23-2 4th quarter run. Toronto only has two guys that can beat you, and Paul George can take away one of those. So if the other is not on fire, their offense struggles big time.

Gabriel DuPont

Complimentary play for tonight, as I look to improve on my 49-37 run with free picks: Atlanta at CHICAGO.

The STORYLINE in this game today - The Atlanta Braves are in Chicago to close out their series with the Cubs, and I am siding with the home team to keep the momentum going. I didn't post a line because there is never an overnight line with the Cubs Run Line, or a total, due to the weather conditions at Wrigley Field. But make no bones about it, there is a blowout brewing after the teams were rained out last night.

The X-FACTOR in making this choice on this game - Though pitchers are automatically listed when making Run Line wagers, I am insisting you DO NOT worry about who the scheduled starters are. In the event of a scratch, you MUST re-wager the game with the new pitcher(s) who are scheduled. This play will stand no matter who pitches for either team. This is key because I'm siding with the offensively better team - the Cubs. Even with Kris Bryant with an ankle injury, this is a powerful lineup that is extremely dangerous and can go yard at any time, when playing at home.

BOTTOM LINE is - Two teams that are polar opposites. Though the Braves are dying to prove they're not a cellar-dweller any longer, and want to challenge in the National League East, the fact is the Cubbies are everything and more. The Cubs are the contender everyone has claimed them to be, and have the pitching and hitting to prove it. They are the overall better team, and generally, on a weekend, after a postponement, you side with the home team.

5* CHICAGO -1.5

Jeff Benton

Your Sunday freebie is the Cubs on the RUN LINE over the Braves.

Sometimes it is just that obvious, and even rain can only postpone things for so long.

Atlanta lost 6-1 on Friday in the series opener, and they have now lost 18 of their 23 games played on the season. Not only that, but the Braves have dropped 7 in a row in this series, with ALL 7 losses coming by 2 runs or more!

Today it is the winless Julio Teheran taking on John Lackey who stands at 3-1.

Teheran is 0-3, and his team has dropped all 5 of his starts thus far this season.

Since Atlanta has only scored 75 runs total for the season, and since the Cubs run differential is already a major-league best at +79, you really don't need to overthink this one.

In fact, a RUN LINE play on the Cubs almost any night of the week is a winning investment over the long haul.

Cubbies by at least 2 runs.

5* CUBS -1.5

Chris Jordan

My free play is on the Angels in Arlington, over the Rangers. And be sure you're listing both scheduled starters: Garrett Richards and Cole Hamels. This is a pitching rematch from last month, and Richards will be out for revenge after losing to the Rangers and Hamels in a pretty good game.

Now that Richards picked up his first win of the season on Monday, after limiting the struggling Royals to just one unearned run, he can focus on getting back at this Texas lineup. The good news is, the hard-throwing 27-year-old right-hander has a 3.38 career ERA in Arlington.

Hamels, meanwhile, skipped his last start because of a strained left groin. I know he threw a 26-pitch bullpen session on Monday, and reportedly it went well, but tonight he will get outpitched by Richards.

4* ANGELS