Scott Delaney
My free play is on the Seattle Mariners, who eked out a 1-0 win on Friday night against the defending World Series champion Kansas City Royals, and then put it on the Royals with a 6-0 victory on Saturday night.
Tonight the M's continue to roll, while the Royals continue to tank.
Point blank, though, I like the Mariners to simply take advantage of the slumping Royals, who have lost five in a row. Kansas City has struggled to hit the ball lately, and that could pose a problem this weekend, as we saw last night in another shutout loss. The Royals have totaled just seven runs during their five-game losing streak.
Lay the cheap line, and be sure you have action no matter what, so do not list pitchers with this game.
4* MARINERS
Scott Rickenbach
Hornets vs. Heat
Play: Heat -6
The Heat have all the momentum back in this series. It's been a series of shifting momentum as Miami won the first two games and then Charlotte won three straight. The Hornets had their chance to close out the series on their home floor and failed. That is going to make it awfully tough to bounce back here and I just don't see it happening. Making matters worse for Charlotte is the Nicolas Batum injury situation. Look for the Heat to roll as they already had two home wins by an average margin of 22 points per game earlier in the series. The fact that Miami then lost on their home floor in Game 5 (by just a bucket) strengthens their resolve here. Off of the upset win in Game 6 that saved their season, Miami is 8-3 ATS on the season when off of an upset win as an underdog. Charlotte is 3-6 ATS as a road dog of 6.5 to 9 points this season. At the time of this posting, 6.5 is the dominant number in the markets but there is some 6 available. My advice is to grab it!
Matt Josephs
Tigers vs. Twins
Play: Over 9
Mike Pelfrey is 0-4 with a 6.33 ERA and a WHIP of 1.968 in four starts for the Tigers. He has struggled to do anything right striking out just nine while walking 12 over 21.3 innings of work. Pelfrey has pitched terribly this season, but has three unders because Detroit has scored just one run in his last three starts. Minnesota's offense is mediocre, but even they should be able to feast on the awful righty. Ricky Nolasco has a 5.02 ERA in two home outings for the Twins. Last year it was the best of times (5.3 IP 0 ER 7 K 3 BB) and the worst of times (3 IP 6 ER 6 H 2 K 4 BB) for Nolasco when it came to facing Detroit. Mike Aviles (8-14), Miguel Cabrera (3-11), Jose Iglesias (3-3), Ian Kinsler (7-17), Victor Martinez (5-11) and JD Martinez (5-15) all hit the Twins starter well. The Tigers have scored 37 runs in their last six games and have gone over in six of their last eight overall. These two have gone over in 13 of their last 21 meetings in Minnesota. I think this one does too.
Jimmy Boyd
Trail Blazers +9.5
The betting public has jumped all over the Warriors in Game 1 at basically a double-digit dog. I really like the value here with Portland, who I believe is going to give the Warriors a bigger scare than a lot of people think with Curry on the sidelines. Unlike the Rockets, who were a complete mess, the Trail Blazers are a young team that is confident and going to give everything they have to win this series.
All the pressure is on the Warriors to open up the series and that makes Portland a dangerous team in this spot. Game 1 can be a spot where the home team lets their guard down just a little. The big key here is that we don't need the Blazers to pull off the upset. All we need is for them to lose by 9 or less, which I'm confident they will.
The last time these two teams played the Warriors won 136-111, which is important to note. Road teams revenging a blowout loss of 20 or more points against an opponent off a home win are 77-50 (61%) ATS over the last 5 seasons.
Martin Griffiths
Lazio vs. Inter Milan
Play: Over 2½
Lazio have absolutely nothing to play for apart from pride and that is not always a high priority in Italian football, whereas Inter retain a very slim hope of sneaking into a Champions League spot, but it is very unlikely.
What that means is that Inter still have something to play for while Lazio do not, but even at this stage of the season against a Lazio team with nothing to play for it is never easy to travel to Rome and get a win.
But that will not stop Inter from trying, they will want to get the win, it is just difficult to know what sort of mental state Lazio will be in, will they be up for this game or are they already on holiday?
I personally believe that Lazio will be up for this, simply because they are playing Inter, teams always get up for the big games, especially in front of their home fans.
The way I see this game developing is that both teams will score at least once and I am confident that at least one of them, probably Inter, will score at least twice and so the overs is the way to go.
I am not confident enough to pick an outright winner, just too many variables, but the overs looks a good pick to me.
Brandon Lee
Astros/A's Under 8.5
Oakland took Game 2 of the series 2-0 yesterday and I look for another low-scoring affair at the pitcher friendly Coliseum on Sunday. The A's will send out one of the more underrated starters in the game right now in Rich Hill, who has a 2.42 ERA and 1.269 WHIP in 5 starts with a ridiculous 37 strikeouts in 26 innings of work. Houston is a team that strikes out a lot and Hill should have the Astros hitters whiffing early an often in this one. Houston will send out Doug Fister, who has a not so impressive 5.56 ERA and 1.500 WHIP, but will be facing a bad Oakland offense. The A's are scoring just 2.9 runs/game at home and a mere 2.6 runs/game with a .176 team average in 9 day games.
Teddy Davis
Tigers vs. Twins
Play:Twins -132
Even though the Twins lost the previous two games it's clear why they are favorites here as they have a big pitching advantage to avoid the sweep today. Despite is 1-0 record in 4 starts Twins starter Ricky Nolasco has been pitching very well having an ERA of 3.25 and a WHIP .904. Pelfrey for the Tigers has been off to a rough start with an ERA of 6.33 and is 0-4. He has been getting hit early and often. Twins avoid the series sweep today!
SPORTS WAGERS
PHILADELPHIA +115 over Cleveland
Danny Salazar has 26 K’s in 23 innings and brings a 2.35 ERA and 1.04 WHIP into this start.Last season, Salazar made some nice gains with his biggest one being an increase in his groundball % from 34% to 44%. His raw stuff remains dominant (13% swing and miss rate), particularly his unhittable changeup (27% swing and miss rate) and solid slider (17% swing and miss rate). It’s difficult to score runs on Salazar when he’s on his game. However, he’s still prone to giving up jacks and now he’s having trouble getting ahead of hitters. His 49% first-pitch strike rate this year has greatly contributed to the 13 walks in 23 frames that he’s issued. As good as his stuff is, you can’t constantly fall behind hitters at this level and expect positive results. Salazar has the stuff to be elite but his poor control is getting in the way.
The Phillies have won five in a row and eight of their past nine games but the market still doesn’t believe in them, as they come in as a dog once again with their best pitcher on the mound. Vincent Velasquez just defeated Max Scherzer and the Nationals in his last start in Washington. He’s now 3-1 with three pure quality starts under his belt. Velasquez has been electric so far with a 33/6 K/BB split in 25 innings. That level of command puts him in elite territory and it has come with the support of a 16% swing and miss rate, 73% first-pitch strike rate, and 33% ball%. Velasquez has three legitimate strikeout pitches (24% swing and miss rate on changeup, 16% swing and miss rate on four-seam fastball, 11% swing and miss rate on curveball). His arsenal points to a bright future with his big fastball, great changeup and strikeout curve and it could come very quickly. That Velasquez is a pooch at home is our cue to step in immediately.
Colorado (5 innings) +103
Chad Bettis went 8-6 with a 4.23 ERA in 115 innings for the Rockies last season. He was an emergency rotation member to start the year and managed to keep his head above water by keeping the ball out of the thin air. Bettis’s dominant start/disaster start was not bad at all considering where he pitched half his games and it speaks to his "not horribleness." A month-long DL stint (elbow) interrupted his season-ending run of eight pure quality starts in 9 attempts. Bettis combined strikeouts (7.7 K’s/9) and groundballs (49%) in 2015, and he also managed a 10% swing and miss rate. He’s carried that moderate success into this season with very similar numbers, not to mention a 3.77/3.69 ERA/xERA split. More importantly, when we can take back any tag whatsoever against Shelby Miller, you can pencil us in with no questions asked.
We don’t even know where to start with just how miserable Shelby Miller truly is. To get Miller from Atlanta, the Snakes sent three-players, highlighted by shortstop prospect Dansby Swanson, the No. 1 overall pick in last year's draft along with outfielder Ender Inciarte and pitching prospect Aaron Blair. This seriously might one of the five worst trades in baseball history. Miller came into this season with a lot of different forecasts. For some, he's someone who could deliver more value than expected. Others will have noted his mediocre skill base from 2015 and stay away and we’re among those but things are going from bad to worse for Miller. We’ll start with his 15 walks in 20 innings after five starts. Miller is pitching behind in the count in 72% of all pitches thrown. Only seven pitchers in the majors are worse than that. Hitters are making contact on 86.6% of his pitches, which is the 5th worst mark in the majors among all starters. Next up is Miller’s legit 8.56 ERA to go along with a groundball/fly-ball split of 23%/54%. Throw in a 1.93 WHIP in a HR-friendly and gap friendly home park to this profile and one has to wonder how Shelby Miller is going to get past the third inning in any home start this year. Miller is damaged goods that is not only messed up physically, he’s also a psychological mess. The good news for the D-Backs is that they are only paying him $535,000 this year so there are not going to be many more opportunities to fade this stiff because he’s not going to around much longer. This is one of those opportunities.
San Diego +271 over LOS ANGELES
The Dodgers losing streak has hit six in a row after dropping another one yesterday to the Padres. Surely, with Clayton Kershaw going, they are not going to lose seven in a row, are they? Don’t be so sure. For one, the price here makes the Padres worthy of a play. Secondly, the low total of 6½ makes the Padres worthy of a play because one or two runs could win it. Thirdly, the chance of the bullpens deciding this outcome is a distinct possibility and if that should come to pass, it makes the Padres very worthy of a play. Clayton Kershaw is a pitcher that needs no introduction whatsoever but let us point out that the best pitchers in baseball will start 35-40 games and win 18-20 of them. It is rare to see any pitcher win 20 games in this day and age and that includes Kershaw that has two 20-win seasons in seven years. His other win totals were 8, 13, 14, 16 and 16. That means about half his starts are decided by the bullpens. In five starts this season, Kershaw has two wins. Dude might be the best pitcher on Earth but you still need run support to win games and right now the Dodgers aren’t providing any.
Unlike Kershaw, Drew Pomeranz needs an introduction because he’s not very well known. What we know for sure is that Pomeranz has the third best mark in the majors among all starters in contact percentage. To give you an idea of how impressive that is, the top four in order are Cole Hamels, David Price, Drew Pomeranz and Noah Syndergaard. Ironically, all four are starting today. Hamels is a -126 favorite over Texas, Price is -154 over the Yanks and Syndergaard is a -134 favorite over Madson Bumgarner and the Giants. Meanwhile, Drew Pomeranz is taking back almost 3-1. Few starters have been more dominant than this former first-round pick. Pomeranz comes in with a BB/K split of 12/31 in 22 innings. He has an elite 18% swing and miss rate, which is the second best mark in MLB behind ace Noah Syndergaard. Credit the development of his knuckle-curve for it. He has a 23% swing and miss rate with that pitch so far in '16 compared to an 8% mark with it in '15. This is by far one of the biggest overlays we have ever seen in this sport and it’s all because of pedigree and familiarity. Kershaw and the Dodgers have it while Pomeranz and the Padres do not. Even if we lose this game, we’ll be proud to rip our ticket because of the value attached to it. You will never see Drew Pomeranz taking back a price like this again unless it’s in a tennis match with Billie Jean King. Taking back 1½-runs and 15 cents isn’t a bad wager either. Invest.
BOSTON -1½ +147 over N.Y. Yankees
Nathan Eovaldi added a splitter to his repertoire last season, then tweaked his grip in June, which led to an increase in velocity. It also led to second half bumps in strikeouts, first-pitch strikes, swinging strikes and his groundball rate. Perhaps Eovaldi’s control regression was the temporary result of tinkering. An elbow inflammation that ended his season hangs a cloud over his 2016 outlook, but there is reason for cautious optimism. Eovaldi’s numbers are trending the right way but this isn’t a bet against him. This is a bet against the Yanks, a team that is loaded with players in the twilight of their careers that are all fringe everyday players now. They play every day because the Yanks have no choice but to play them because they are paying them a damn fortune from 12M per to 21M per. The Yanks cannot score runs, they can’t string together hits, they hit into double plays often and they strike out at the most inopportune times too. 4-2 losers on Friday night, the Yanks lost 8-0 last night and will now face David Price.
The Yanks have scored two runs or less in four straight and in four of their last five games. They are dead last in the league in runs scored. They are second last in the league (ahead of only Atlanta) in total bases, total hits and slugging percentage. New York scores most of their runs via the long ball when one of their aging stiffs gets a hold of a bad pitch. David Price doesn’t throw many bad pitches in a game and neither does Boston’s relievers.
Power Sports
Houston vs. Oakland
Pick: Oakland
Not to make a cliched reference, but Houston, you definitely have a problem. What has gone wrong with the Astros? They are now just 7-17 with an AL-worst -33 run differential. Yesterday's shutout loss (2-0) certainly offers no optimism and I see the club getting swept here in Oakland. As I'll explain, it also doesn't help that they'll be facing a lefty this afternoon.
The southpaw in question in Rich Hill. Oakland's starter comes in with a 2.42 ERA through five starts and just tossed seven scoreless innings of four-hit ball his last time out (with 8 K's and zero walks). Even better though is the fact that Houston is 0-4 this season vs. LH starters. The 'Stros were of course shut out Saturday and so far they've totaled only 11 hits in the series.
Houston's bullpen regression from last year, which was to be expected, is the most easily identifiable problem. The team is 3-11 on the road and a big reason for that is the relievers posting a woeful 7.32 ERA and 1.550 WHIP. Sunday's starter Doug Fister offers little in the way of promise himself as he's 0-3 his L3 starts w/ a 5.60 ERA and 1.528 WHIP. Not only has Fister allowed at least one home run in every start this year, but he walked a career-high seven batters his last turn in the rotation. Right now, Houston simply is not a team worth backing.
Bob Balfe
Pacers +5.5
Toronto has not won a playoff series in over a decade. The art of losing big games are now in their playoff DNA and for some reason or another messes with players heads. Indiana has a lot of talent and are certainly capable of winning this game on the road with their experience. This should be a thriller.
Heat -6.5
Experience means everything in the playoffs. I will take Wade on my team every single time in a Game 7 situation. The Hornets are a young team that did a great job just getting back in this series, but today I believe Miami is going to hit them with the first punch early and never look back.
Twins -130
The Twins are looking to avoid the sweep today at home. Nolasco has been great with his control this season striking out a lot and limiting his walks. This Twins bullpen is great at home and should shut down Detroit in the later innings.
Harry Bondi
TAMPA BAY +115 over Toronto
Toronto starter Marcus Stroman comes in with a 3-0 record, but he hasn't been nearly as impressive as last year, as seen by his 4.63 ERA, so we think he's a bit overvalued here, especially against Tampa Bay's Jake Odorizzi, who is pitching in his preferred park. In his career, Odorizzi has posted a 2.79 ERA at home (1.02 ERA this year), as compared to a 4.93 ERA on the road. The Rays bullpen has also been very good this year, especially at home (2.88 ERA), so we like them here in the home underdog role today.
Dr. Bob
Opinion – UNDER (191) - Charlotte at MIAMI (-6 ½)
There isn’t much difference between these teams (I rate Miami as only 0.6 points better) and this series is tied despite Miami making 41.2% of their 3-point shots while the Hornets have made only 30.3% from long range in the first 6 games. My variance adjusted average margin in this series is Miami by 0.6 points so these are actually playing just how I thought they would aside from the Miami’s 3 point shooting luck. Playing game 7 at home is an advantage for the Heat, as the host is 36-23-2 ATS in the deciding game of a 7 game series. However, my ratings favor the Heat by just 5 points even with the extra home advantage. I don’t want to buck the game 7 trend but I also don’t want to play Miami because of the inflated line. I have no opinion on the side but if I was forced to play it I think I’d rather take the points with Charlotte (of course, you or I are not forced to play anything). My math projects 192 total points but this game applies to a 14-1 game 7 Under situation so I’ll lean with the Under 191 points or higher.
Bruce Marshall
Pirates -1.5 +159
These teams are headed in opposite directions and will continue to back the surging Pirates, looking for a sweep. The Bucs have won six straight and have scored 5 or more runs in 7 of their last 9 as they just completed their highest-scoring April since 1930. Starter Jeff Locke is also off of a dominant effort vs. the Rockies when he pitched six shutout innings on Monday. The reeling Reds have totaled a mere 11 runs in a 1-8 stretch and are forced to use promoted Tim Adelman in his first MLB start due to Raisel Iglesias' shoulder injury. Adelman had only a 4.24 ERA in April at AAA Louisville.
Wunderdog
Charlotte @ Miami
Pick: Miami -6
Miami found the secret to beating the Hornets just in time. Miami's key to victory was to crash the boards as the Heat outrebounded Charlotte 46-31 in Friday's 97-90 win to force a Game 7. Dwyane Wade came through in the fourth quarter to score 10 of his 23 points while Luol Deng added 21 points for the Heat. Kemba Walker poured in 37 points for the Hornets and Al Jefferson added 18 points and nine rebounds, but the rest of the team was just 10-of-32 from the floor. Nicolas Batum, who played just 14 minutes in Game 6 and scored six points, is still questionable with a foot injury. Wade's playoff experience was also a major factor on Friday, and the home court is another huge advantage in a Game 7.