Will Rogers
Miami vs. Toronto
Pick: Toronto
The Toronto Raptors find themselves playing another Game 7 in their second round series versus Miami, and they will try to duplicate their 89-84 win in Game 7 versus Indiana. We saw the Raptors win convincingly at home in a pivotal Game 5 in this series, and I think we'll see a similar story here in the finale.
Here are my keys to the game:
1. Home Cookin' - The Heat really struggled on the road in the regular season, going 20-21. They've lost two of three in Toronto in this series, and are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 road games. In the Eastern Conference, only Cleveland won more games at home (33) than the Raptors (32) during the regular season.
2. Injuries - Both teams have lost their starting centers, but the Raptors are in far better shape with Bizmack Biyombo playing solid defense and logging a ton of minutes. The Heat have really missed the defense and rebounding of Hassan Whiteside.
3. X-Factor - DeMar DeRozan scored 30 points in Game 7 versus Indiana, and he went off for 34 points in the win over Miami in Game 5.
Dave Cokin
Miami vs. Toronto
Pick: Toronto -4.5
This is one of those games that falls into the category of being a fairly easy decision for me, albeit one I can’t say I’m wild about in terms of confidence. It’s almost a matter of my hoping that Toronto is less lousy than Miami in what has been a very close, but certainly not brilliantly played best of seven series.
But in terms of arriving at a decision, I can’t get away from the Raptors today. They’re a good home team, and Game Seven home teams in the NBA win way more often than they lose. Given the closeness of the games in this series, laying even a small number is dicey and this isn’t that small a number.
As for the actual matchup, I make the backcourt battle pretty even, particularly with Kyle Lowry off an absolutely huge Game Six that should bolster his confidence. Toronto has to get better frontcourt play here than they did in the last game. I have to think getting back home should be at least a partial remedy for that ailment.
The old NBA zigzag angle, which really isn’t an angle anymore, has certainly been in play in this series, with neither team able to win back to back games. That really doesn’t have much to do with my take here, except for the fact that maybe it kind of figures based on how even these teams have been through the first six games.
In the end, the performance of NBA Game Seven home teams is the key for me, and I don’t mind the apparent fact that the wagering ticket majority percentage is on the road dog Heat in this game. I’ll be surprised if this isn’t a competitive clash, but I’ll be making my play on Toronto and hoping they can get past the number in the process.
Dave Cokin
Series - Sharks +115
I don’t see a great deal to choose between the Sharks and Blues. They’re neck and neck on my power ratings chart. I make the goaltending, a critical element on the Cup playoffs, a virtual dead heat between Martin Jones and Brian Elliot. San Jose has the more explosive offense in my view, while I would give an edge on the blueline to the Blues.
But I do see a few subtle edges for San Jose overall. As solid as the Blues special teams were in the win against Dallas, the Sharks power play comes into this series in ultra-high gear. San Jose lit the lamp eight times with the man advantage against Nashville, and I think it’s fair to say the Blues had better avoid taking any silly penalties in this series or they could find themselves in trouble.
Both teams have big stars who appear to be in top form. Joe Pavelski and Logan Couture are rolling for the Sharks and Brent Burns would probably be my Conn Smythe pick if the award was based on just the action to date. Vladimir Tarasenko continues to be a magician with the puck for St. Louis, David Backes has been superb and Patrik Berglund has been very impressive.
I think this has a chance to be a great series, and I’d be very surprised if it’s a short set. But I do have a very slight edge for the Sharks on my numbers, and perhaps what I like the most about San Jose is that they finally appear to be shedding their image as a bad post-season team. Maybe not having the pressure of high expectations did the trick this time, but whatever the reason, I think this is a go with team right now.
The price is not spectacular in terms of value as the Blues do have the home ice advantage and they therefore pretty much have to be favored. But as I like the San Jose side just a bit better i also naturally like the idea of getting them at plus money. I’ll take the small dog odds with the Sharks to win this series and get to the Stanley Cup Finals.
Jim Feist
Braves vs. Royals
Play: Under 8
Atlanta is terrible on offense, last in baseball in runs scored. The Under is 11-3 in the Braves last 14 interleague road games vs. a team with a losing record. At least Atlanta has a good starter going in Matt Wisler (3.27 ERA), with batters hitting .192 off him. Wisler has now lasted eight innings in consecutive starts and has four quality starts in his last five. Atlanta is also 15-7-1 under the total in interleague road games vs. a left-handed starter. Kansas City has a dominant bullpen and is a strong defensive squad, 11-4 under the total at home. Lefty Danny Duffy (3.00 ERA) is throwing well and the Under is 25-10-1 in his last 36 home starts.
Matt Josephs
Angels vs. Mariners
Play: Angels +1½
Felix Hernandez tries to move to .500 against the Angels in his career on Sunday. The Seattle ace lost to them on the road back in April giving up three runs and five hits in seven innings. There are a few worrisome signs with Hernandez who has 20 walks in seven starts and just 33 strikeouts with 16 of them coming in the first two outings. The Angels secured a real nice win on Saturday night and are scoring over four runs per game at home. No doubt it's a worry that Hector Santiago has been hittable as of late, but he's got a 3.86 ERA in four road starts. He beat Hernandez in that April home game and has a 3.68 ERA and a WHIP of 1.262 in five career starts vs. Seattle. One of my favorite trends is to take the +1.5 runline in starts that King Felix makes. He has either outright lost or failed to cover the runline in six of seven this year and 23 of his last 33 games overall.
Ricky Tran
Angels vs. Mariners
Play: Under 7½
Free Pick on UNDER in Seattle - The Halos are looking to complete a three-game sweep against the Mariners at Safeco Field. Their SP for the day Hector Santiago was 2-0 with a 2.70 ERA in his first four starts before hitting a rough patch. Odds are he'll be back at his best today as he has posted a respectable 3.24 ERA in 13 career games (five starts) versus Seattle. Felix Hernandez will toe the slab for the Mariners, and the Seattle ace has a 1.55 ERA in his last 15 starts against the Angels. Hernandez has allowed only two runs in 21 2/3 innings of work home at Safeco this year.
Martin Griffiths
Houston Dynamo vs. Real Salt Lake
Play: Draw +253
Tricky game between Houston Dynamo and Real Salt Lake today with very little separating the pair.
Houston have won just once in their last eight fixtures, however weirdly enough they have lost just once in their games at home this season, drawing two of those games.
Real Salt Lake have won just once on their games on the road this season, drawing twice.
So, what we have is two teams that are not exactly in great form but grabbing draws when required and that is how I see this game panning out later today.
I do not feel that Houston have enough about them to win over Real Salt Lake but at the same time I do not see the away side winning either, the pair of them are just lacking that all important killer instinct at this time.
Larry Ness
Cincinnati Reds at Philadelphia Phillies
Prediction: Philadelphia Phillies
The Philadelphia Phillies opened the 2016 season, coming off a 99-loss year in 2015, by getting swept in a three-game series at Cincinnati (outscored 19-10). The Phillies then moved on to Citi Field and lost a fourth straight game to the Mets, 7-2. However, the Phils have since gone 22-11 to give them a 22-15 record on the year. Even more impressive is the fact that the team’s moneyline mark of plus-$1,298 tops all major league teams, even that of of the Chicago Cubs, who at 27-8 (best 35-game start since the the 1984 Tigers opened 30-5), check in at plus-$1,222.
While the Phillies are 22-11 since their 0-4 start, the Reds are 11-22 since opening the season with that three-game sweep of Philadelphia. Cincinnati has lost the first two games of this three-game series in Philadelphia and that gives them a 2-12 road record to begin 2016, with the team’s moneyline mark of minus-$937 ranking second-worst to the Twins, who are 3-16 on the road, minus-$1,172. The 14-22 Reds own the NL's second-worst overall record and will send Dan Straily (1-1, 3.47 ERA) to the mound. He continues to struggle with his control as he issued three walks in his last outing to increase his season total to 17 in 36.1 innings. He pitched well despite the free passes this past Monday against Pittsburgh, recording a no-decision after permitting two runs on four hits in six innings.
Straily has allowed a modest just 14 ERs in 2016 and goes after his fourth consecutive quality start (he will be pitching against the Phillies for the first time in his career). The Phillies counter with Adam Morgan (1-0, 3.94 ERA), who is coming off one of the best outings of his career. The left-hander gave up just ONE run and four hits over a career high-tying seven innings in Tuesday's 3-2 win at Atlanta. Morgan had allowed six ERs on 11 hits over nine innings in his first two starts in place of the injured Charlie Morton. "We thought about letting him go back out (for the eighth inning), but his previous two outings were not real good," manager Pete Mackanin told MLB's official website. Morgan gets to face a Cincinnati team in this game which has batted .227 and averaged 3.00 runs while losing 12 of 14 on the road (Reds are allowing 5.93 RPG on the road in 2016).
Philadelphia is seven games above .500 for the first time since winning 102 games back in 2011 (seems like a lifetime ago) and a win today gives the Phils their first home sweep of the Cincinnati Reds since 2010. That’s the bet.
Marc Lawrence
Los Angeles Angels at Seattle Mariners
Pick: Seattle Mariners
Edges - Mariners: Felix Hernandez 10-1 last eleven home starts; and 0.83 ERA and 0.88 WHIP at home this season. Angels: Jose Santiago 5-10 career starts in May. With two pitchers in opposite current form, we recommend a 1* play on Seattle.
Power Sports
Pittsburgh vs. Chicago
Pick: Chicago
The price is simply too good to pass up as the Cubs' historic start to the season continued yday w/ yet another win over the Pirates. They are now a perfect 5 for 5 this year against their NL Central rival and 27-8 overall w/ a jaw-dropping +110 run differential. I'll call for them to finish off the sweep on Sunday.
Today's starter for the Cubs is Jon Lester. He comes in with a 1.96 ERA & 1.022 WHIP and has yet to allow more than 3 ER in any start. Most important of all, the team is 6-1 when he's on the mound. He threw 5 2/3 scoreless innings against the Pirates back on May 4th when the Cubs swept in Pittsburgh. Lester now owns a 1.26 ERA his L4 starts vs. the Bucs.
The Cubs have outscored the Pirates 37-11 head to head this year while batting .318 as a team. Pittsburgh has shown itself to only be a pretty average team to this point (18-17, -3 run diff) and starter Gerrit Cole was charged for six runs in just 4 2/3 innings when he faced the Cubs earlier this year. All things considered, this is an incredible price on the home team.
Tony Karpinski
Miami vs. Toronto
Pick: Toronto -4.5
We are officially passing today with our MLB and NBA action. This is just a free pick I have here in game 7. The best stat I can give you is that Toronto hasn't lost two straight games with the second game at home since the loss to Golden State ON DECEMBER 12TH!! I dont see Dragic having another career game especially on the road and I think the Raptors will have an defensive answer for Wade. Look for Toronto to advance to the Eastern Conference Finals.
Kyle Hunter
Angels at Mariners
Play: Under 7.5
The Los Angeles Angels have been hitting the ball better in this series so far, but I don't expect it to continue here. This Angels lineup is extremely weak. Mike Trout is a star and Calhoun and Pujols are solid, but outside of that this Angels order is very weak. The depth of this lineup is among the worst in baseball. Felix Hernandez isn't quite what he was in the past, but he still has good stuff, and he is pitching at home where he is tremendous. Hernandez has a sparkling 1.43 ERA in his last 12 starts vs. the Angels as well, so he has dominated this team. Hector Santiago has improved a lot in the past couple years, and I like his chances of slowing down Seattle here. Mark Ripperger is one of the best under umpires in the business. He will give both pitchers the corners and we should see plenty of strikeouts. The under is 8-1-1 in his last 10 games behind home plate.
Brandon Lee
Mets -139
New York has dropped each of the first two games in the series, but I'm confident they come out Sunday and avoid the sweep behind the arm of Jacob deGrom. He's 3-1 with a 2.12 ERA and 1.213 WHIP in 5 starts. He faced the Rockies twice in his career and has yet to allow a run, allowing just 5 hits with 19 strikeouts in 15 scoreless innings of work. As for Colorado, they give the ball to Tyler Chatwood. He's got a solid 3.09 ERA and 1.191 WHIP in 7 starts, but is 0-3 with a 7.87 ERA and 1.875 WHIP in 3 home starts. New York is 15-4 in their last 19 after losing 4 of their last 5 and 9-1 in deGrom's last 10 road starts in day games.
Jimmy Boyd
Padres +112
San Diego is showing great value here as a small road dog against the Brewers. The Padres have won 4 of their last 5 after yesterday's 8-7 win over Milwaukee. I like their chances of keeping the momentum going and closing out their road trip with another victory over the Brewers on Sunday.
Milwaukee will send out Cesar Vargas, who was just rocked for 6 runs on 10 hits in 3 innings of work against the Cubs. Vargas isn't the first and won't be the last to have his worst outing coming against Chicago. The key here is that in his 3 starts prior, he gave up a total of 2 runs in 16 1/3 innings of work. As for the Brewers, they counter with Zach Davies, who is 1-3 with a 6.29 ERA and 1.891 WHIP in 5 starts. Milwaukee has lost all 3 of his starts at home and he's got an ugly 7.58 ERA and 2.281 WHIP in 2 day outings.
Padres are 11-3 in their last 14 road games after a combined score of 15 or more, while the Brewers are 12-30 in their last 42 during game 4 of a series and 0-5 in Davies' last 5 starts after allowing 5 or more runs in the previous game.
Greg Shaker
Reds / Phillies Over 7.5
Straily still having control issues although he is meandering his way through a pretty good year. Morgan has been OK but nothing special. The Red's Bullpen has been a Gas Can on the Road this year sporting an ERA Over 6 runs and the reason why this team has played OVER more than not when they have traveled. This is a "Number" Play for us and it's a good one at 8 or better..