Jeff Benton
Your Sunday freebie is the Marlins over the Nats in D.C. this Sunday afternoon.
Miami starts their bona-fide ace Jose Fernandez against Nats back of the rotation starter Joe Ross.
All Fernandez has done is win his last 3 starts, and is fresh off an 11 strikeout performance over 7 shutout innings in a win over Milwaukee.
Look for him to stop the Nats in their tracks.
Joe Ross has dropped his last 2 decisions, and his last start which saw him allow 5 runs on 8 hits in just 5 innings worked has to leave Ross a little unsure as he hits the hill against Miami's best arm.
Marlins to salvage the weekend in this spot.
Take Miami.
3* MIAMI
Scott Delaney
My free play for today is the Philadelphia Phillies against the Cincinnati Reds. I have to say, the Phils are one of the more surprising teams in the bigs, as I didn't expect much from them. But here they are on another win streak, and playing well enough to contend in the National League East.
The Phillies' current run has pushed them past the defending N.L. champion New York Mets, and just a game behind the first-place Washington Nationals.
The Phillies have won 10 of 15 at home, and today look for the sweep against a Cincinnati Reds team that has lost three in a row and 12 of 14 on the highway this season.
Not a good spot for the Reds. Forget the pitchers here, just play this straight action.
4* PHILLIES
Gabriel DuPont
Complimentary play for tonight, as I look to improve on my 57-42 run with free picks: N.Y. Mets at COLORADO (+135)
The STORYLINE in this game today - The defending National League champion New York Mets have lost three in a row, and are struggling. The Colorado Rockies have won three straight and are on a nice roll at this point. I like the momentum play and underdog price.
The X-FACTOR in making this choice on this game - To go along with the Rockies' win streak, you have to be impressed by the home batting average. It's expected given it is in the Mile High city, but still, it's a factor. Colorado hits .299 at home, leading the N.L. and ranking second overall in the bigs.
BOTTOM LINE is - The Mets need to get this road trip over with and probably are just mentally deflated at this point. The Rockies are going to take advantage and jump all over this opportunity.
4* ROCKIES
Brad Wilton
Astros-Red Sox Over the total for Sunday is the call.
Houston now 4-1-1 Over the posted price their last 6 games, while Boston is on a rather glaring 6-2 Over clip their last 8, including each of their last 5.
Rookie Chris Devenski and his 1.72 ERA will be tested to the supreme today, as this will be his first assignment at Fenway Park, and the way the BoSox have been banging the baseball, all I will say is "good luck Mr. Devenski!
Sean O'Sullivan gets his second crack at the starting mound, and if its anything like his first, we should be approaching this 10 run total around mid-game. O'Sullivan allowed 12 hits and 4 runs over his 6 innings worked against Oakland last week in a 13-5 final that obviously landed Over the posted price.
They say things happen in threes, so for the third straight day, comp play on the Over in the 'Stros-Sox.
3* HOUSTON-BOSTON OVER
SPORTS WAGERS
San Jose +116 over ST. LOUIS
There is one reason and one reason only why the Blues are still alive and that’s because they enjoyed a significant edge in goal against both Chicago in round one and especially Dallas in round two. Even without Tyler Seguin, Dallas was able to dominate play in a large portion of that series. If Dallas even had adequate goaltending, we’d be talking about them here and not the Blue Notes. Antti Niemi and Kari Lehtonen combined for a mere 13 stops in Game 7 and gave up 5 goals between them. In Game 5, St. Louis mustered a mere 21 shots on net but won because Lehtonen’s save percentage was .857. Dallas was the better team that lost. In round one, St. Louis was outshot in five of seven games also. Chicago outshot St. Louis 35-18 in Game 1 and 42-20 in Game 4 and lost both those games. In the deciding Game 7, Chicago outshot the Blue Notes 33-26 and lost again. St. Louis did not come close to outplaying Chicago or Dallas instead, Brian Elliott stole two series that the Blues did not deserve to win. St. Louis has surrendered a massive amount of high scoring quality chances through 14 playoff games and while they got away with it in back-to-back seven-game series, they are not likely going to get away with it here.
San Jose just disposed of Los Angeles in five games and Nashville in seven. That second round series against the Preds probably should have been over sooner but Nashville won two games in OT while scoring a late third period goal to tie it in the second OT game and trailing in the third period in the first OT game. The Sharks scored six times on Los Angeles in Game 5 and they scored five times in three of the seven games versus the Preds. The Sharks were able to create great chances against perhaps the two best defensive teams in the NHL. The Blues only advantage here is home ice, as San Jose is the better team by a solid margin.
St. Louis’s win percentage in one goal games (0.658) gave them a much higher luck score than San Jose.This suggests that St. Louis’ point total was inflated, while San Jose’s was somewhat understated. Furthermore, San Jose is absolutely terrifying to opponents when it comes to shot quality, enjoying a league-leading +259 advantage when it comes to high danger scoring chance differential. St. Louis, meanwhile, seems content to let the ice tilt toward goaltender Brian Elliott, racking up a surprisingly poor -66 differential (22nd overall) during the regular season. To sum it up, the Sharks enjoyed a +325 advantage on high danger scoring chances. Unless the Blues’ defensemen and checking forwards tighten ranks quickly, that fact alone is likely to make for a lopsided affair.
It gets worse for the Blues too. The Sharks have been a far more disciplined team, enjoying a +46 penalties drawn vs. taken advantage over their opponents during the regular season while the Blues were -42. That’s a difference of 86 in the Sharks favor suggesting that they are likely going to have many more PP opportunities which works twofold. First, it’ll give the Sharks' deadly power-play more opportunities and secondly, it’ll wear out the Blues. Put simply, the Sharks’ high-flying offense goads opponents into taking penalties, and then their power play often finishes the job.
San Jose had been underachieving for years until Peter DoBoer came along and instilled a winning system that is conducive to winning playoff series. The Sharks will not only frustrate teams with their defensive play, they will run out three great scoring lines and a fourth line that can create, defend the best and give them quality minutes every game. St. Louis will not have the luxury of firing away pucks like they did on Chicago’s leaky defense or Dallas’ weak goaltenders.
St. Louis finished with more points than San Jose and they are also a more recognizable team in the marketplace too. San Jose plays late on the West Coast and few watch them other than gamblers and locals. Those in the know absolutely understand that this series is not priced correctly. The better team by a wide margin is taking back a tag and so we’re not going to miss the opportunity to capitalize on the market’s wrong perception of this series. Thus, we’re going to play San Jose every chance we get, which includes Game 1 and the series for now.
SPORTS WAGERS
WASHINGTON +100 over Miami
When you strike out so many batters, it’s great but it also has a downside, which is a high number of pitchers per batter faced. Jose Fernandez has an incredible 58 K’s in 41 innings, which is why he’s favored on the road in Washington here. However, Fernandez is averaging just over five innings per start because his pitch count is always high. He’s also walked 20 batters and brings a troubling 1.30 WHIP into this game after seven starts of which only three have been of the **pure quality variety. Furthermore, it may surprise you to learn that when hitters make contact off him, it’s hard contact, as he has a higher rate of line-drives (31%) than he does of fly-balls. Washington has great numbers against lefties too, as its .848 OPS against southpaws will attest to. In fact, the Nats have lost just one game this year against lefties and now they’re a dog at home.
Enter right-hander Joe Ross, who is not getting near enough credit for what he's doing because he pitches in the shadows of Max Scherzer and Stephen Strasburg. Ross has a legit 2.29 ERA after six starts. Four of those starts were of the pure quality variety. Ross has strong sub-indicators too that include a 11% swing and miss rate. Last year, Ross arrived quickly with fewer than 100 innings pitched in the high minors. He didn’t seem overmatched even with some late-season fatigue. Ross held his swing-and-miss gains from 2014, as his sinker/slider repertoire continued to generate plenty of groundballs. Is Joe Ross really as good as his 2.29 ERA suggests? Not yet but he’s damn close. And he's good.
PURE QUALITY STARTS
The old quality start method — minimum 6 IP, maximum 3 earned runs — is simplistic and does not measure any real skill so throw that out the window. In pure quality starts, we give a starting pitcher credit for exhibiting certain skills in each of his starts.
1. The pitcher must have gone a minimum of 6 innings. This measures stamina. If he goes less than 5 innings, he does not get a pure quality start no matter what other stats he produces.
2. He must have allowed no more than an equal number of hits to the number of IP. This measures hit prevention.
3. His number of strikeouts must be no fewer than two less than his innings pitched. This measures dominance.
4. He must have struck out at least twice as many batters as he walked. This measures command.
5. He must have allowed no more than one home run. This measures his ability to keep the ball in the park.
Note the absence of earned runs. No matter how many runs a pitcher allows, if he scores high on the pure quality start scale, he has hurled a good game in terms of his base skills. The number of runs allowed — a function of not only the pitcher's ability but that of his bullpen and defense — will even out over time.
This formula combines the individual raw skills of dominance, control and the ability to keep the ball on the ground, all characteristics that are unaffected by most external team factors.It is a brilliant way to cut through the noise of bad fielding, bad timing, and bad luck to determine the truth about a single start—or a season’s worth of them.
Please note: More games may be added or subtracted by 12:30 PM or thereabouts, as we monitor lines looking for value all day.
Oakland +125 over TAMPA BAY
Sonny Gray has lockdown numbers against the Rays. Gray has held Tampa batters to a .506 OPS while maintaining top-tier control against them. Gray has had his troubles in 2016, but with a near-two-run spread in his xERA-to-ERA he is likely a decent choice at a good price here. The Rays have terrible numbers against righty pitching and they’ve produced a mere .646 OPS at home this season. Drilling down deeper for this one, we have to feel pretty good about the groundball-pitcher-vs.-Tampa Bay angle, as the Rays are batting .188/.252/.334 against groundball types. It doesn’t hurt that the Rays best hitter, Logan Forsythe is on the rack for at least 15 days.
Ranked #2 overall on the 2012 Top 100 prospects list, Matt Moore made a huge splash in his first MLB start in 2011 by striking out 11 over 5 innings at Yankee Stadium. Declining velocity and effectiveness thereafter hinted at a possible injury, and eventually he succumbed to TJ surgery in April of 2014. Now, more than two years removed from the operating table, Moore's career appears to be on an upward trajectory. Moore’s first few post-TJ surgery appearances in 2015 were rocky, but velocity & skill spiked during five, strong September starts. September 2015 skills have carried over so far in 2016, with velocity continuing to rise and a swing and miss rate that affirms his 9.2 K’s/9 level. Moore’s September's control was validated by sub indicators, but so far this year Moore has not been able to duplicate that. His xERA indicate that Moore is headed in the right direction and point towards his current 4.83 ERA as being a fluke or some misfortune but here’s what we don’t like. Moore has a WHIP of 1.34, which is over our threshold of 1.30 of being in danger territory. Too many baserunners almost always results in runs scored. The Rays are not going to push Moore either, especially this early in the season so don’t expect him to pitch deep into games even if everything goes well.
Bruce Marshall
Astros at Red Sox
Pick: Over
Boston continues to score runs in style, pounding out another six on Saturday for yet another "over" result for a sixth straight game on this homestand in which the Bosox have scored at least six runs in each game since Monday. Today's pitching matchup suggests more of the same as Sean O'Sullivan and his 6.43 ERA is the weakest link in the Bosox rotation. While mostly impressing, the Astros' Chris Devenski has never pitched before in Fenway Park.
Harry Bondi
ARIZONA -140 over San Francisco
Don't mind laying a little juice here today going against SF starter Matt Cain, who is a shell of his former self. The Giants are 1-6 in Cain's seven starts this season and he has been especially bad on the road, posting an ugly 10.12 ERA. The D-Backs have already beat Cain once this season and in his last three starts against Arizona the right-hander has a 5.51 ERA and 1.77 WHIP. On the other side of the ledger, Arizona starter Rubby De La Rosa is in great form, posting a 2.25 ERA in his last three starts and he is also 3-1 in his career vs. SF with an ERA of 3.23.
Buster Sports
Houston Astros at Boston Red Sox
Play: Houston Astros -110
In today's match up we have RH Chris Devenski (0-2, 1.72 ERA) on the hill for the Astros and RH Sean O'Sullivan (1-0, 6.43 ERA) for the Red Sox. This free play is more about going against O'sullivan as it is the Red Sox who have been a very hot team as of late. In O'Sullivan's last start he got his first win in over a year but still give up 4 runs and 12 hits in 6 innings pitched. His career record is (12-23, 5.96 ERA) and in his only career outing versus Houston he gave up 3 HR and 5 runs in 6 innings. The rookie Devenski came out of the Astros bullpen and now is making his 4th career start. Devenski has seen the Red Sox a couple times out of the bullpen this season without giving up a run in 5 1/3 innings. With the Red Sox out celebrating Big Papi's 600th double in a extra inning walk off win yesterday, we believe the situation is right for the Astros to gain a split of their 4 game series.
Scott Rickenbach
Cardinals at Dodgers
Prediction: Under
Both Mike Leake of the Cardinals and Alex Wood of the Dodgers have somewhat high ERAs but the reason this total is "only" a 7.5 is two-fold. For one thing, these guys have pitched much better than their ERA would lead you to believe. For another thing, Dodger Stadium is certainly a pitcher-friendly park. Leake's problems have been homers allowed but this is not a home run park to say the least! Note that Leake has only given up 15 hits in the 20 innings spanning his last 3 starts. As for Wood, the Dodgers southpaw has only given up 3 earned runs in the 20 innings spanning his 3 home starts this season. Also, he has an advantage of the Cardinals never having faced him. As for the Cards Leake, the right-hander completely handcuffed the Dodgers the two times they met last season. Leake held LA to a 1.13 ERA in 16 innings. Even though yesterday's game went over the total there were only a total of 11 hits in the game. In other words, it's not like the hitters were pounding the ball here yesterday. Look for a tight, low-scoring match-up tonight. It would not surprise me to see this game end up being a 2-1 or 3-2 pitchers duel. As a home favorite in a range of -125 to -175, the under is 6-1 in Dodgers games this season. Look for another one here!
Jack Jones
Arizona Diamondbacks -122
The Arizona Diamondbacks will be trying to avoid the sweep today as they take on the San Francisco Giants at home. They have lost the first two games of this series, but look for their bats to really get going in Game 3 here.
That's because they are up against one of the worst starters in the big leagues. Matt Cain is 0-5 with a 6.69 ERA and 1.512 WHIP in seven starts this season, including 0-2 with a 10.12 ERA in two road starts. Cain has given up 7 earned runs in 9 2/3 innings in his last two starts against Arizona.
Rubby De La Rosa is certainly an underrated starter. He is 3-3 with a 3.71 ERA and 1.118 WHIP in six starts this season, including 2-1 with a 2.25 ERA and 0.950 WHIP in his last three starts. De La Rosa is also 3-1 with a 3.23 ERA in five career starts against San Francisco. He has pitched 13 2/3 shutout innings in his last two starts against the Giants; both wins.
Cain is 0-8 (-9.2 Units) against the money line after walking 1 or fewer hitters each of his last 2 outings over the last 2 seasons. De La Rosa is 14-7 (+9.2 Units) against the money line after a loss over the last 2 seasons. The Giants are 15-37 in Cain's last 52 starts. The Diamondbacks are 7-1 in De La Rosa's last eight starts with 4 days of rest.
Dave Price
Miami Marlins -120
I feel good about backing Jose Fernandez every time he takes the mound, especially at this -120 price, which is low for him. Fernandez is 4-2 with a 3.54 ERA in 7 starts this year, including 3-0 with a 2.50 ERA in his last 3. He is clearly on his game as he has 58 strikeouts in 40 2/3 innings behind some of the best 'stuff' in the game. Fernandez has never lost to the Nationals, going 4-0 with a 1.05 ERA and 0.914 WHIP in 7 lifetime starts against them.
OC Dooley
Braves +190
While injuries have caused Kansas City to give Danny Duffy his initial start of the campaign which in turn puts him on a pitch count Atlanta's Matt Wisler has given his team consecutive EIGHT INNING efforts that were both "quality". While the wretched Braves have won only twice in front of their home fans they have SEVEN WINS already in ROAD setups such as this. In a surprising statistic that spans the past three years when cast as a prohibitive favorite (175-to-200) long term Kansas City (4-13 record) has actually been a "bet against"
Wunderdog
New York @ Colorado
Pick: Under 10
The end of an 11-game road trip for the Mets out West. The offense looks out of gas, tallying six runs total the last three games; two of those contests in Coors Field. They haven't scored more than four runs in seven consecutive games, part of a 7-3 run UNDER the total. The Mets' season-long struggles with runners in scoring position has continued, 4-for-18 in this series and a Major League worst .207 for the season. The Mets rank #18 in baseball in runs scored, but at least they have an ace on the hill in Jacob deGrom (3-1, 2.12 ERA). He has walked only five batters in 29+ innings and has allowed three runs or less in every start. Colorado is home with a strong arm of its own going in Tyler Chatwood (4-3, 3.09 ERA). He's allowed fewer hits than innings pitched with a 30-11 strikeout to walk ratio. Colorado is 27-12 UNDER the total against the NL East and 7-2-1 UNDER when their opponent allows five runs or more in their previous game. This shapes up as more of a defensive duel than oddsmakers expect, and the UNDER is 10-3 when they meet.