DAVE COKIN
RAYS VS. TIGERS
PLAY: RAYS +101
My Saturday call on Tampa Bay didn’t work out as the Rays dropped a 5-4 decision to the Tigers. But I’ll try them again today, hopefully with a better result.
Chris Archer is on the hill for TB, and he’s still having some BB issues. But Archer is trending in the right direction for the most part, and when he’s on his game, this righty is one of the better pitchers in the game.
Jordan Zimmermann got the strikeouts rolling in his last start, but that might have actually been more of a result of lousy overall command. Zimmermann was sort of wild in the strike zone in that outing, and ended up getting hit hard by the Twins. It’s tough to find great fault with 6-2, 2.45. But some of the Zimmermann peripherals are not so hot. Perhaps I’m nitpicking a bit, and I’ll admit I have a tendency to do that every now and then, but I think the Rays have decent chance to get to the Detroit righty today.
The Rays did get cooled off for most of Saturday’s game, at least until that very shaky Tigers bullpen got involved. Tampa Bay suffered way more than just one loss in the process. Kevin Kiermaier broke his hand trying to make a diving catch, and that is a big hit for this team. The Rays can certainly replace his average bat, but Kiermaier is a brilliant defender and this is an injury that will definitely create a substantial void in the Tampa Bay outfield.
I’m basically banking on Archer today. There’s definitely some gamble involved, as anyone who has followed my baseball analysis here over the years knows how walks can drive me a bit nuts. Plus, Archer still hasn’t gotten back to his 2015 velocity levels with the heater. His slider is right there though, and Archer seems to be trusting his change more than he has in the past. Bottom line is that he’s still missing bats, but there are times when I think Archer is trying too hard to strike everyone out.
Nevertheless, Archer remains a guy I’m really high on and I like the idea of being able to take him at roughly even money today. If it’s tight at the finish line, I definitely prefer the Tampa Bay bullpen. My play is on the Rays to win the series rubber match.
Rob Vinciletti
Lightning vs. Penguins
Play: Over 5
This has been a high scoring series and 10 of 12 here in Pittsburgh have played over. In the series 18 of the last 20 games have had at leas 5 goals scored. The Penguins are 18 of 24 over the total at home if the posted total is 5 or less and 5 of 7 over on Sunday. Tampa has gone over both times they are tied in a series. Play this one over.
Marc Lawrence
Tampa Bay at Detroit
Play: Detroit -114
Edges - Tigers: Jordan Zimmerman 8-2 last ten home team starts during May; and 3-0 in day starts this season. Rays: Chris Archer 0-3 day starts this season; and 0-2 last two starts in this series. With Zimmerman in strong current form with a 2.45 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP this season, to go along with 21 K’s and 4 BB’s in his last four starts, we recommend a 1* play on Detroit.
Scott Spreitzer
Yankees vs. Athletics
Play: Yankees -117
I'm backing the NY Yankees for the second straight day. Four game road sweeps are rare, but we believe the Yankees are in a solid spot to do so. We'll call this a case of, "just what the doctor ordered," for Michael Pineda. The Yankee righty owns a 2.25 ERA & 1.08 WHIP in four starts against the A's, including a solid outing against them on April 19 of this season. Pineda will face an Oakland offense that's struggling near the bottom of the league at home in team batting average, OBP, and OPS. The A's will send Jesse Hahn to the mound for the fourth time this season. Hahn's ERA may look decent, but he's allowing too many base runners and his ERA will likely take a hit soon. The A's righty has allowed 28 base runners in 18 2/3 IP, for a 1.50 WHIP. And while the A's have won just 27 of their last 67 at home against right-handed starters, the Yankees enter on a four-game winning streak and have won 11 of their last 16, overall. We'll back the Yankees to remain hot and pick up the sweep.
Art Aronson
Nationals vs. Marlins
Play: Under 7½
The vistors turn to ace Max Scherzer (4-3, 4.01 ERA) who gave up two runs off three hits, while also striking out ten over seven innings in an unfortunate setback to the Mets on Tuesday. Scherzer induced 17 swinging strikes, but would give up two solo home runs as his only mistakes of the outing. Over his past two starts the veteran has been sharp, giving up a total of four earned runs while racking up and amazing 30 strikeouts over 15.1 innings of work. The home side counters with Adam Conley (3-2, 3.40) who is also coming off a gem, allowing one run over six innings while striking out five in a win over the Phillies on Monday. Recent performance is one of the best indicators when judging starting pitching and with these two hurlers coming into this one seemingly “firing on all cylinders,” the UNDER is indeed worth a second look in this matchup.
Larry Ness
Kansas City at Chicago
Prediction: Chicago
The 25-18 Chicago White Sox remain atop the AL Central but the Kansas City Royals have reminded all this weekend why they are defending World Series champions. The 22-20 Royals have taken the first two of this three-game series in Chicago and can sweep a road series for the first time this season on Sunday. Chicago owns an AL-best 3.18 ERA in 2016 but it’s been the team’s offense which has let them down Friday and Saturday, scoring just a SINGLE run in each game while going 0 for 12 with runners in scoring position in the series.
The good news for Chicago batters is that they will face KC’s Yordano Ventura (4-2, 4.85 ERA), who is is 3-0 with a 3.57 ERA in four home starts (Royals are 4-0) but has a 6.30 ERA in four on the road (he’s 1-2 and the team 2-2). Ventura is 0-1 with a 9.00 ERA in three career outings at U.S. Cellular Field. Chicago will likely need to score runs to win here, as the White Sox send Carlos Rodon (1-4, 4.73 ERA) to the mound. The left-hander has never faced Kansas City or any of its hitters but is 0-3 with a 6.06 ERA in his last six outings, after giving up three runs in six innings of a 6-5 defeat to Houston. He didn't get the loss but the White Sox have now dropped his last four starts (team is 2-6 in his eight starts this season, as he’s been the real weak link in the starting rotation).
KC entered this series just 7-13 on the road to open 2016 and I’ll bet against the road sweep in this one.
Jesse Schule
Golden State Warriors vs. Oklahoma City Thunder
Play: Oklahoma City Thunder +3
Do you remember when the Thunder upset the Warriors in Game 1? Perhaps the Warriors convincing 118-91 win in Game 2 has made us forget about how well the Thunder have played. Oklahoma City returns home with the series tied 1-1, and they are an underdog in Game 3. We've seen the Warriors deal with their fair share of adversity in this post-season, and they've made a habit of playing poorly in the first half on the road. They trailed at the half in both of their games in Portland, and they failed to get to the locker room with a lead at the half in both road games in their first round series versus Houston . Steph Curry continues to make incredible shots night in and night out, but after dropping 40 points on the Blazers in Game 4, he's been held under 30 points in three straight. He's admitted his knee is still not 100%, and he injured his elbow late in Game 2. You could see his elbow was quite swollen while he was sitting on the bench in the third quarter, and the injury was on his shooting arm. When the Warriors visited Oklahoma City in the regular season, they went to halftime trailing 57-46. They went on to win that game in overtime 121-118. These come-from-behind wins are so common for the Warriors, there really isn't a lot of urgency for them to try to win the game in the first half. That's not the case for the Thunder, who really need to take advantage of the energy from the home crowd. A fast start is crucial for Oklahoma City.
Big Al
Washington vs. Miami
Pick: Washington
The Nationals are back in Miami this afternoon to wrap up their series against the Marlins and one thing's for sure - they will be darn glad that they won't see RH Jose Fernandez again - at least not until the next series. The starter who gives the Nats more fits than any other in baseball did it again last night, throwing six one-run innings while striking out nine on his way to a 3-2 victory, Fernandez's sixth career wins against no losses vs. Washington. Tonight, it will be the Nats most dominant starter, RH Max Scherzer, going to the mound for his 10th start of the season. Scherzer's numbers may be off a bit so far this season, but he is still an ace, and two starts ago, Scherzer tied a record by striking out 20 batters in a complete-game victory (his fourth of the season) over his former team, the Detroit Tigers. Scherzer has started three games here at Marlins Park, and he is 2-1 with an excellent 2.25 ERA in 20 innings in those. LH Adam Conley goes for the Fish, and the Nats are 6-0 in their last six road games vs. teams with a southpaw starter.
Bruce Marshall
Colorado at Pittsburgh
Pick: Colorado
After Tyler Chatwood kept the Pirates in check on Saturday, Chad Bettis appears capable of doing the same for the Rocks after keeping the Cards in check at Busch Stadium in his last start. As for Pittsburgh, it can't seem to string together a meaningful win streak, and Sunday starter Juan Nicasio has wobbled lately, allowing 13 runs over 15 1/3 IP in his last three starts.
Jim Feist
Texas at Houston
Pick: Under
A pair of aces are on the mound for this division showdown. Cole Hamels (4-0, 3.10 ERA) goes for Texas, with 51 strikeouts in 49 innings. Hamels' 9.3 K-to-walk ratio is the best since his rookie season (2006), he's inducing groundballs at a career-high rate and his 85.7 percent strand rate is well above his career average. The under is 7-3 in the Rangers last 10 road games vs. a right-handed starter. He faces a suspect Houston offense that is tops in baseball in strikeouts. No. 18 in runs scored and on base percentage. Houston is 8-2-4 under the total at home against a team with a winning record. Ace Dallas Keuchel likes to throw in this park, with a 3.27 ERA. He's pitched six of his nine games on the road, including the last two. The Under is 4-1-3 in the Astros last 8 home games, plus 5-0-2 under against the AL West.
Teddy Davis
Royals vs. White Sox
Play: White Sox -124
I look for the White Sox to come out extra motivated today as they will avoid the series sweep to their division rival the Royals. Carlos Rodon pitching for the White Sox has had a slower start than most people expected, but I believe he is starting to turn the corner here. His last start @ home was great going six innings and only giving up 2 runs. The Royals will send Ventura to the mound who has really struggled recently as his ERA is 6.89 in his last 3 starts. Royals are just 3-7 in Ventura's last 10 road starts vs team with a winning record.
Oskeim Sports
Kansas City at Chicago
Play: Chicago -114
Kansas City right-hander Yordano Ventura is off to a terrible start in 2016, posting a 4.85 ERA and 1.54 WHIP in his first eight outings. The young flame-thrower also owns an alarming 6.30 ERA and 1.80 WHIP on the road and a 6.89 ERA and 1.78 WHIP over his last three starts. Ventura's struggles can be traced back to a declining strikeout rate (6.54 K/9 vs. 8.60 K/9 in 2015) and a lack of control (6.12 BB/9 vs. 3.20 BB/9 in 2015).
And, despite being aided by a fortunate .252 BABIP, Ventura still owns a 5.34 FIP, 5.87 xFIP and 5.65 SIERA. Another red flag surrounding the 24-year-old is the fact that he is yielding fly balls 38.2% of the time as compared to 27.2% last year. Ventura has also issued nearly as many walks (29) as strikeouts (31) this season.
Chicago southpaw Carlos Rodon has been a disappointment to date, posting a 4.73 ERA and 1.46 WHIP in eight starts. However, the 23-year-old has a 3.67 xFIP and 3.77 SIERA despite being a tad unlucky with a .323 BABIP. I also like the fact that Rodon has increased his strikeout rate (9.26) while simultaneously reducing his walk rate (3.35 BB/9).
Rodin's command started to improve in the second half of last season (13.9% first half vs. 9.7% second half) and it now stands at 8.4% in 2016. The lefty is also supported by a very good Chicago bullpen that owns a 2.74 ERA and 1.16 WHIP, including a 1.83 ERA and 1.05 WHIP at home and a 1.50 ERA and 1.04 WHIP in day games.
Kansas City has also struggled to hit lefties this season, batting .248 with a .293 OBP in six games (2.8 runs per game). Technically speaking, the Royals are 5-12 in their last seventeen road games, 3-8 in their last 11 games off a win and 3-7 in Ventura's last ten road starting versus .501 or greater opposition. In contrast, Chicago is 9-4 in its last 13 home games versus right-handed starters, 7-2 in its last nine division contests (5-1 L/6 with Rodon on the Hill) and 4-1 in its last five games after losing the first two games of a series. With Kansas City standing at 5-15 in its last 20 games with umpire Scott Barry behind the plate, take the White Sox to avoid the sweep and invest with confidence.
Jeff Benton
Your Sunday freebie is the Rockies and Pirates to head Over the total in their series finale from PNC Park.
After playing 2 of 3 Over the total at Coors Field in April, these teams have held Under in the first pair of this 3 game set this weekend.
That will change today with Chad Bettis and former Colorado pitcher Juan Nicasio on the mound.
Bettis is coming off one of his better outings in a start at St. Louis, but for the season sports an ERA over 4, as 2 of his last 3 starts have landed Over the total.
Nicasio also owns a season ERA over 4, and has allowed an alarming 11 runs to score over his last 3 starts which have totaled just over 15 innings. The Over going 2-0-1 in those efforts.
Things have been quiet at home plate the past 2 days, that will not be the case today.
Rockies-Pirates Over the total.
3* COLORADO-PITTSBURGH OVER
Scott Delaney
My free play is on the Atlanta Braves, in Philadelphia, against the Phillies. And though there isn't an overnight/early line, I know the price will hold value, as we'll like catch a decent dog price.
Casey Kelly is on the hill for Atlanta, and I think he will outperform Philadelphia's Jerad Eickhoff.
Kelly is up from the minors, as he's been promoted from Triple-A to fill Aaron Blair's rotation spot. And believe me, Kelly can't be any worse than Blair. Matter of fact, I'd have to believe Kelly will be out to show what he's got, and try to make this a permanent stay.
The right-hander was a top prospect in the Red Sox organization and did show promise for the Padres before undergoing Tommy John surgery in 2013. Now he's back in the bigs and this is a huge opportunity.
As for Eickhoff, the Braves knocked him out in the fifth, scoring four runs against him on May 11. The Braves will have confidence hitting against him here.
1* BRAVES
Gabriel DuPont
Complimentary play for tonight, as I look to improve on my 59-47 run with free picks: Seattle (-1', +105) at CINCINNATI
The STORYLINE in this game today - The Interleague showdown between the Seattle Mariners and Cincinnati Reds continues today, and my money is on the road team, as I like the M's to win big. Seattle has one of the better road lineups in the league, as it is hitting .266 on the highway, ranking fourth in the American League.
The X-FACTOR in making this choice on this game - The key in this one is the pitching mismatch, as Miley will outpitch Simon. Miley will keep his momentum going in this series. The M's left-hander has won his past four decisions, including six shutout innings against the high-powered Orioles in his last outing. Meanwhile, Simon is in after one of his worst starts of the season, last Tuesday, when he allowed 10 runs in 4-1/3 innings versus the Indians.
BOTTOM LINE is - Since every MLB wager on a run line or total auto-lists pitchers, I want you to be sure the two pitchers on your ticket, when making this play, are Wade Miley and Alredo Simon. If they are not the pitchers of record when making your play, disregard this play. This one is about Miley neutralizing the Reds' lineup, and the M's hitting Simon's sinker all over the place.
1* SEATTLE -1.5