Jack Jones
Seattle Mariners -140
The Seattle Mariners are showing solid value as medium-sized road favorites against the Cincinnati Reds. The Mariners have won three straight coming in while scoring 19 combined runs in the process. The Reds have lost six straight and will continue to struggle Sunday.
Wade Miley has had a nice season thus far for the Mariners. The left-hander is 4-2 with a 4.32 ERA and 1.200 WHIP in eight starts this year. Miley is 2-2 with a 3.90 ERA in five career starts against Cincinnati as well.
Alfredo Simon is one of my favorite starters to fade. The right-hander is 1-4 with a monstrous 9.79 ERA and 2.044 WHIP in seven starts this season. Simon has also posted a 7.14 ERA and 1.852 WHIP in two career starts against Seattle.
Cincinnati is 2-17 (-14.3 Units) against the money line as a home underdog of +125 to +150 over the last two seasons. The Reds are 3-16 (-12.2 Units) against the money line vs. a good bullpen whose ERA is 3.75 or better this season. Seattle is 5-0 in Miley's last five starts. The Res are 12-40 in their last 52 vs. a team with a winning record.
Brandon Lee
Rangers vs. Astros
Play: Astros -140
Houston will turn to their ace and reigning AL Cy Young winner Dallas Keuchel to avoid losing their 4th straight and getting swept by the Rangers. Even with the Rangers sending out their ace in Cole Hamels, I like Keuchel and the Astros to pull out the victory. Keuchel has been much better at home, where his ERA is a respectable 3.26. In his last home start, he allowed just 2 runs in 7 innings. There's also something about playing at home on Sunday that brings out the best in Houston, as they are 15-2 in their last 17 in this spot. Astros are also 28-14 in Keuchel's last 42 starts after a loss.
Martin Griffiths
CA Banfield vs. San Lorenzo
Play: San Lorenzo -1-145
An in-form San Lorenzo side welcome Banfield to the Estadio Pedro Bidegain today, with the hosts predicted to comfortably beat their opponents by at least 2 goals.
San Lorenzo enter the match as clear favourites based on their recent form in the Argentine Primera Division, winning each of their past 7 league matches, including victories over fellow title contenders Godoy Cruz and Indepediente. The Saints have been excellent in front of their supporters, winning 6 of their 7 home matches, and will be confident of their chances to extend their unbeaten record further. The hosts boast one of the strongest attacks in Group A, with striker Nicolas Blandi providing 8 goals so far this campaign, and will be aiming to improve their goal difference further to compete with Godoy Cruz in the standings.
Visitors Banfield are incredibly unlikely to muster much resistance against San Lorenzo today, continuing their already poor season. El Taladro have won just 2 games all season, and have recently laboured to unconvincing draws against the likes of Olimpo and Sarmiento. As one of the league’s lowest scoring sides, Julio Cesar Falcioni’s team should not threaten the San Lorenzo defence and are expected to lose heavily.
San Lorenzo supporters should be confident of an excellent victory later today, as we predict they will win against Banfield by a margin of at least 2 goals.
ASA
Yankees vs. A's
Play: Over 8
Yesterday's game stayed under the total but that doesn't change the long-term trending that each of these teams have displayed. Prior to yesterday, the over was 12-4 in Oakland's past 16 games and the over was 9-3 in the Yankees' past 12 games. The weather will be favorable for an over in Oakland Sunday as the wind is expecting to be blowing out toward right-center. The pitching match-up also favors an over in this one as both of these starters have struggled in recent starts. The Yanks Michael Pineda is 0-2 with a 7.02 ERA and a 1.74 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Pineda will be toeing the rubber on the road today and he is 0-3 in his road starts this season with a 5.06 ERA and a 1.63 WHIP. The Athletics will have Jesse Hahn toeing the rubber this afternoon. The A's righty has been blasted for 18 hits in his last 11 innings comprising his two prior starts. Pineda and the Athletics are a home dog here and over is already a solid 4-1 this season in games where Oakland is set as a home dog in a range of +100 to +125. The A's enters this game on a 3-game losing streak and when they enter a match-up off of 3 or more consecutive losses, the over is 6-3 this season.
Jimmy Boyd
Indians +115
Cleveland is showing some great value here as a road dog against the Red Sox on Sunday. The Indians had their 5-game winning streak snapped yesterday, but are poised to start another behind their ace so far this season in Danny Salazar.
Salazar is 4-2 with a sensational 1.80 ERA and 1.000 WHIP in 8 starts. He's been even better than that over his last 3 starts, where his ERA is a mere 0.90. He's faced Boston twice in his career, both last season, and was dominant in both outings. He allowed just 2 runs on 8 hits with 11 strikeouts in 12 1/3 innings of work.
The Red Sox will counter with Rick Porcello, who has been a huge surprise so far this season. After going just 9-15 with a 4.92 ERA and 1.36 WHIP in 28 starts last year, Porcello is 6-2 with a 3.51 ERA and 1.09 WHIP in 8 starts. I don't believe he's going to be able to keep it up and he's coming off a bad start against the Royals, where he gave up 5 runs on 8 hits and 2 walks in just 5 innings of work.
Indians are 27-17 in their last 44 road games following a loss, 20-6 in their last 26 after giving up 5+ runs in their previous game and 7-1 in Salazar's last 8 starts against the AL East. Red Sox are just 3-8 in Porcello's last 11 starts against a team with a winning record.
Dave Price
Chicago White Sox -123
The Chicago White Sox come into this game against Kansas City hungry for a victory. They have lost 8 of their last 10 games overall with their only 2 wins coming with Chris Sale on the mound. Now they are looking to avoid the sweep against the Royals after losing the first 2 games of this series. They have the advantage on the mound behind Carlos Rodon, who has posted a 4.73 ERA in 8 starts this season. While not good, it is better than KC's Yordano Ventura, who is 4-2 with a 4.85 ERA and 1.547 WHIP in 8 starts. Ventura is also 1-2 with a 6.30 ERA and 1.800 WHIP in 4 road starts. Ventura sports a 4.24 ERA in 6 lifetime starts vs. Chicago. The White Sox are 19-6 (+11.5 Units) against the money line as a favorite of -110 or higher this season. The Royals are 3-8 in their last 11 games following a win. The White Sox are 9-3 in Rodon's last 12 starts on 4 days of rest.
SPORTS WAGERS
Atlanta +132 over PHILADELPHIA
The Phillies are among the weakest teams in MLB but their record says otherwise which is going to provide us with opportunities until that record is corrected. Much like Atlanta, Philadelphia cannot be priced in this range so this becomes all about value. If this game was being played in Atlanta and the Braves were favored by this much, we would be playing Philly. Another reason the Phillies are priced so high today is because the Braves will send out a rookie making his MLB season starting debut at this level. Frankly, we couldn’t care less about the starters because this wager isn’t about that. It’s about fading a Philadelphia team that ranks dead last or last in just about every key offensive category. Its pitching isn’t very good either. The Phillies have scored one run against the Braves in the first two games of this series and they have scored one run or less in three of their last four games. Without run support, it’s difficult for any pitcher to win so we’re not even going to discuss Jered Eickhoff.
The same things that we just mentioned about Philadelphia can be applied to Atlanta too. The Braves are a weak team too that may lose 100 games this year but the difference is that Atlanta isn’t spotting a tag. That said, we’ll give you some information on Atlanta’s starter, Casey Kelly. Kelly was a first-round pick in 2008 by the Red Sox before they dealt him to the Padres after the 2010 season. He’s been injury-riddled ever since, missing the entire 2013 campaign and most of 2014 due to Tommy John surgery. Kelly has been brought back slowly and showed better offerings and command as the 2015 season went along. The Braves liked what they saw and obtained him in December 2015. At one point, he had an outstanding curveball, but it has devolved to an average pitch. He also owns an average 88-94 mph fastball and change-up. All three of his offerings are tough to elevate. Kelly’s fastball may lack velocity, but it has good sinking action and he commands it well. There are times his curveball shows glimpses of its former life while his change-up also has moments of greatness. Kelly first appeared in the majors in 2012, His MLB numbers are horrible with 61 hits in 43 innings, an oppBA of .330 and an ERA of 6.44 but he wasn’t ready when he posted those numbers. At Triple-A Gwinnett this season, Kelly allowed just 22 hits in 37.1 innings for an oppBA of just .169. What’s so amazing about that is he walked 20 batters. Kelly is showing signs of being strong again and he could not have handpicked a better team to face to make his first MLB start of the season against. The price dictates the play.
Tampa Bay +103 over DETROIT
Chris Archer is just 3-4 after nine starts with an ERA of 4.38 so his market appeal isn’t as high as it usually is. What really sticks out however, is Archer’s road record of 0-2 with an ERA of 6.15. That works fine for us because when the market panics and sells, we usually step in and buy, especially since Archer has recovered. Archer is coming off a solid six innings in Toronto, where he allowed just four hits and struck out seven. Archer is walking too many batters (25 in 49 innings), which is where all of his troubles stem from. When Archer is throwing strikes, he’s as good as any pitcher in the game. He has 61 K’s in those 49 frames and he also has a hidden 2.32/3.11 ERA/xERA split over his last five starts. The key here is for Archer to cut down on free passes. Once he does that, his hit% and hr/f will normalize and we should see the same Archer from 2015—if not better. This is just one game but we will absolutely take our chances with Archer against Jordan Zimmermann.
We pointed out last week that Zimmermann is all smoke and mirrors. He entered his last start against Minnesota with a 1.50 ERA after seven starts. He’s a guy that has been winning games and posting great surface stats for years so he has a ton of market appeal. There are pitchers that can have a run of good or bad fortune for an extended period of time. Jeff Weaver and Bartolo Colon are two prime examples of this phenomenon, as both are riding three years of good fortune. Colon throws fastballs 88% of the time at 89 MPH and keeps getting guys out. Weaver lobs pitches in there at 73 MPH, his fastball tops off at 85 MPH and he gets outs too. If Colon and Weaver were two young players in the minors, they would NEVER get a call-up with the kind of stuff they have.
The point is, Zimmermann’s stuff is well below average and his ERA is in for a big correction. Zimmermann’s skills decline started last year but they are at a new low this year. Zimmermann was staked to an 8-0 lead in his last start before he even threw a pitch, as the Tigers scored eight times in the first inning against the 11-31 Twins. He couldn’t hold that lead, as he allowed 11 hits and eight runs before being pulled after seven innings. Zimmermann got the win to run his record to 6-2 after the Tigers scored a run in the bottom of the inning. Zimmermann threw 109 pitches and has now thrown over 100 pitches in every start so far. That will catch up to him and so will his lack of skills. No starting pitcher in baseball is outperforming their skills more than Zimmerman is. His 4.47 xERA is more than two runs higher than his actual ERA. His ERA went from 1.50 to 2.45 after blowing an 8-0 lead last game but he still emerged smelling like roses. Zimmerman has 37 K’s in 55 innings but take away his last game, in which he struck out nine Twins and he would have 29 K’s in 48 innings. Incidentally, everyone strikes out nine Twins. While we can bank on continued good control from him given his low 33% ball%, his awful swing and miss rate and 41% groundball rate tells us there is more to come in terms of an ERA correction. Zimmerman continues to be priced like an upper-tier starter when he’s not even close to being one and the fact that he’s favored over Chris Archer is bordering on ludicrous.
Seattle -1½ +118 over CINCINNATI
With all due respect to the Braves and Twinkies, the Reds just might be the worst team in baseball. Cinci has dropped six in a row and nine of 10. Its bullpen is a complete and utter mess that is on a record setting pace for runs allowed in a season and inherited runners that come around to score. When the Reds score six runs, they allow 13. When they score two runs, they allow 13. Those long innings take a toll on the pitcher and the fielders. Losing takes a toll too and now we have two teams with completely different mindsets going at it. Seattle is playing great ball and winning while the Reds are not looking forward to coming to the park anytime soon.
Wade Miley goes for the Mariners today and while he’s just about league average, it matters not because this one has nothing at all to do with backing Miley. It’s an attack on the Reds, their bullpen and their starter, Alfredo Simon.
After his last start of the season last year, Simon complained that he pitched through knee injury all season that affected both his velocity and his ability to keep the ball down. This year, he’s just complaining. Simon brings a 2.11 WHIP, a 10.34 ERA and a BB/9 rate of 4.1. His line drive rate of 31% isn’t pretty either. Of the 30 pitchers starting today, Simon’s BABIP is the highest at .398. Those backing him today should also be just as worried about his age, effects of a late-career role switch, multi-year K-rate and swing and miss dive, trending down skills, increasing walk rate and a dumpster-fire 2nd half last year followed by a dumpster fire first two months this year. You can stop us at any time.
Cleveland +111 over BOSTON
Rick Porcello owns a nifty 8.9 K’s/9 after his first eight starts of 2016, along with some shiny surface stats (3.51 ERA, 1.09 WHIP) and his base skills would seem to support his stats. He's even sporting great command against LH bats, marking the fourth straight season that he has shown improved command against them. Trouble is, Porcello’s underlying command indicators do not support his elite command, so we have to temper our overall optimism: 8% swing and miss rate%, 61% first-pitch strikes and 37% ball%. He's another arm worth selling at its peak and that’s precisely what we are going to do.
There are plenty of big arms going today but you would be hard-pressed to find a starter with better skills than Danny Salazar. As noted here last year, a groundball pitch would cut into Salazar’s disaster starts % and he obliged. Salazar posted a spectacular 2.84 ERA and 1.07 WHIP in 15 second-half starts. Salazar is still at it this year with a sub-2.00 ERA with more strikeouts (61) than innings pitched (50). A miniscule hr/f has pushed Salazar's ERA below 2.00, but xERA and yet another two months of starts say there's plenty of skill behind his hot start. Salazar's elite strikeout rate is backed by an excellent swinging-strike rate (14%) and mid-90s velocity.
Control will remain an issue, however, as Salazar's early Ball% and first-pitch strike rate indicate he's having trouble finding the plate consistently. Salazar's early K-rate/GB% combo is the stuff of legend, and a nasty split-change (28% swing and miss since 2015) and sinker (65% GB%) suggest he has the tools to sustain it. Harnessing his elite stuff will be the key to a full breakout, as Salazar has lost the ability to throw strikes early on. We're inclined to bet on improved control given the 2014-15 skills, and with a full-season of innings-pitched under his belt in 2015, Salazar looks like he can maintain a low-3.00 ERA all season. When he’s being offered a tag, we are going to pony up every time and make no exception here.
Texas +132 over HOUSTON
Somebody told me that “Prince died” so I looked up his batting average and was like, yeah, pretty much. Still, that’s not going to deter us from taking back a tag like this with Cole Hamels going. For one, the Astros lead the league in striking out with an astounding strikeout total to this point of 432. That bodes well for Cole Hamels who can strike out batters with the best of them. Hamels has 51 K’s in 49 innings. He comes in with an elite 14% swing and miss rate, which is not unlike anything he’s done over his entire career. Hamels’ xERA and skills splits are still outstanding but for whatever reason, he does not get the attention that other great pitchers get. That works to our advantage, as we score an ace for the price of a jack.
Starting slow is nothing new. Many great pitchers of the past and present have failed to kick it into gear right out of the gate. Dallas Keuchel is one such pitcher. Keuchel is 2-5 after nine starts with an ERA of 5.43 but he’s coming off a solid performance in Chicago in which he worked into the seventh inning and allowed just six hits and three runs. The market liked that effort and now they trust this Cy Young winner from last year to build upon that start and begin dominating again. We say it ain’t happening. Keuchel has six walks and 9 K’s over his last two starts. When he faced the Rangers back on April 21, he surrendered 13 hits in six frames. Keuchel’s wicked sinker from last year is showing less velocity and less sink. His fastball is averaging 88 MPH. Aside from decreased velocity this season, the plate keeps moving around on Keuchel and as a result, he’s often behind in the count. He has a high 16% hr/f rate, he’s giving up ropes frequently and in his current state, he’s the same punching bag that he was when he first broke into the league. Don’t attribute Keuchel’s struggles to a slow start, as his skills have fallen off a cliff.
Power Sports
Dodgers vs. Padres
Pick: Dodgers
The Dodgers lost to the Padres last night, 3-2 in 11 innings, and with a four-game losing streak they now find themselves two games below .500. But I'll call for them to avoid the sweep Sunday as Padres starter Colin Rea hasn't been nearly as effective as his net units might indicate. LA has not been swept here s/ Sept '10.
Rea finds himself in the top eight in net units (+5.7) for all starting pitchers despite a relatively pedestrian 5-3 team start record. The key has been his 3-0 TSR as an underdog of +180 or higher. One of those victories came at Dodger Stadium on April 30th, but to me, the key is Rea still has a 4.26 ERA and 1.399 WHIP in his eight starts overall. He lost his last time out due to giving up three runs in 5 IP against San Francisco. He's allowed seven runs in his last 10 innings of work and has as many walks as strikeouts.
After an incredible first four starts, the last four have not gone nearly as well for the Dodgers' Kenta Maeda. But we can lean on the fact that Maeda has a 0.98 ERA and 0.818 WHIP in three road starts. That includes him throwing six scoreless innings here at Petco in his first start of the season. He's also had to deal with the hitter friendly conditions of Coors Field and face Toronto (last year's #1 offense) and allowed just two runs and five hits in 12 1/3 IP combined.
Harry Bondi
HOUSTON -145 over Texas
Have things gotten so bad in Houston that they are going to get swept at home by Texas? Have things gotten so bad for Houston ace Dallas Keuchel that he is going to go winless for 5 straight weeks? We think they answer to both of the above questions is no. Astro's and Keuchel have too much talent to keep floundering as they have and they oddsmaker agrees making Houston a hefty -145 favorite. Cole Hamels has pitched great for Texas and the Rangers have dominated their in-state rivals but its a good spot to back the Astros today to finally defens their home turf.