Free Picks for Sunday, May 7th, 2017 from some of the nations best and worst handicappers
Jesse Schule
Spurs vs. Rockets
Play: Spurs +6
The Spurs suffered their worst lost in history in Game 1 of this series versus Houston, but they have responded with back to back wins to take a 2-1 lead heading into Game 4. LaMarcus Aldridge struggled in the series opener, but he was great in Game 3, scoring 26 points with seven rebounds and four blocked shots. These teams played close gamed during the regular season, with three of the four decided by just a two point margin. The bookmakers have made the Rockets a six point favorite on Sunday, and I like the Spurs plus the points. San Antonio has seized the momentum, and their defense was impressive holding Houston to just 36.4 percent shooting in the last game. The Rockets have failed to cover in seven of their last eight home games, and San Antonio has covered in four straight at Houston.
Red Dog Sports
Gimnstic Tarragona vs. Cadiz
Play: Cadiz -125
Cadiz is #4 of the 22 teams and is +15 goal difference while Gimnastic is #19/22 at 9 wins, 13 losses and 14 draws. I think we see a 2-1 win by the home team.
Bruce Marshall
Milwaukee at Pittsburgh
Pick: Pittsburgh
Prior to last Monday at Cincinnati, Bucs starter Gerrit Cole seemed to be coming around, allowing only 4 runs and 14 hits over 19 IP in his previous three starts. Now he's back at PNC Park where his ERA is a very impressive 2.08 this season. And PNC Park has never been a favored destination of Brewers starter Matt Garza, with a 5.74 ERA in Pittsburgh since 2014.
Jim Feist
Blues at Predators
Pick: Under
Both teams are very strong on defense, with St. Louis #12 in goals allowed. Both goalies have been hot in the playoffs and the Blues prefer a slow, defensive-oriented pace at home. Nashville is on a 13-4-5 run under the total. St. Louis is 19-5-4 under the total against the Western Conference, plus the Under is 24-11-4 in the Blues last 39 games playing on two days of rest. And when these teams clash the under is 55-23-9.
DAVE COKIN
DUCKS VS. OILERS
PLAY: DUCKS +110
Demoralizing. That was the first word that came to mind for me on Friday evening as I watched the Anaheim Ducks finish off one of the most incredible comebacks of all time in their 4-3 double overtime win against the Oilers.
Just in case you missed it, these were the Dead Ducks in Game Five as the final few minutes figured to harmlessly tick away. Edmonton was up 3-0 and seemingly count not lose the game. And then they did. The Ducks scored three goals in final 3:16 in regulation. This was truly an unbelievable finish, and it was capped off when the Ducks got the game winner in the second overtime.
I’m not counting out the Oilers. But the mental hurdle here has to be enormous. This is a young team lacking in playoff experience, and I really feel as though they’re going to be hard pressed to regain the momentum after the Game Five disaster.
The Ducks cannot take anything for granted in this game. They should be recalling last year’s series against the Predators where they were up 3-2 and lost the series. Anaheim also had the Blackhawks on the ropes the prior season, and they failed to close out that set as well. So I would have to think this team isn’t going to be relaxing even a little bit and thinking they’ve got things under control.
I’m banking in what should be a tremendous energy level off the amazing rally and perhaps some mental doubts on the other side as this one unfolds. If I’m on target as far as that goes, I’ll have a good chance to get paid with a play on the Ducks tonight.
Scott Rickenbach
Miami at New York
Play: Miami +123
Jose Urena gets the start for the Marlins and he has a 2.35 ERA in his 6 appearances out of the bullpen this season and it includes some long relief work. This will be his first start of 2017 but he made 21 starts in the two prior seasons. He gives the Marlins a big edge on the mound in this one as the Mets are going with a struggling Matt Harvey. Not only is he struggling to find the plate (10 walks in 16 and 2/3 innings) but when he does he's been getting rocked - 8.10 ERA over his last 3 starts. With Miami hungry to bounce back off of an 11-3 drubbing yesterday, they are absolutely worth a look in this spot. The Marlins are 3-1 in Sunday games this season while the Mets are 1-3 on Sundays. Also, New York is still only 6-10 in home games this season.
John Martin
Cavs/Raptors Under 213
We saw a much lower scoring Game 3 with Kyle Lowry out for the Raptors. The Cavs pulled away in the 4th quarter for a 115-94 victory and 209 combined points. I think Game 4 stays well UNDER this 213-point total as well with Lowry out once again. The Raptors are forced to try and slow the tempo to give themselves their best chance to win against the Cavs. It worked for three quarters in Game 3. I think they'll employ the same strategy in Game 4 and try and get the ball inside to Jonas Valanciunas, who has had success when given the opportunity in this series. The UNDER is 8-1 in Cavaliers last nine road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. The UNDER is 81-37-3 in Cavaliers last 121 Sunday games. The UNDER is 21-6 in the last 27 meetings in Toronto.
Ray Monohan
Red Sox vs. Twins
Play: Twins +150
It's a great pitching match up on Sunday afternoon in Minneapolis featuring Chris Sale and Ervin Santanta. As good as Chris Sale has been, Santana has been better and that gives the Twins a lot of value in this one. Santana has pitched 42 innings this season and has only given up three runs. He has total command over all of his pitches and is throwing them all for strikes, which has led to his success.
Chris Sale has been good but I think the Twins will be able to get a few runs off of him, and that will be enough. Some trends to note. Twins are 5-1 in Santanas last 6 starts. Twins are 4-0 in their last 4 Sunday games with Iassogna behind home plate. Red Sox are 2-10 in their last 12 road games vs. a team with a winning record. Minnesota will pull the big upset.
Mike Lundin
Nationals vs. Phillies
Play: Over 8½
The Washington Nationals are aiming for a fifth consecutive win when they take on the Philadelphia Phillies at Citizens Bank Park Sunday afternoon.
They hand the ball to Tanner Roark (3-1, 4.04 ERA) who gave up four runs on six hits with a pairof homers in six innings of a 6-3 loss to Arizona on May 2 his last time out. Roark threw a career-high 125 pitches in the six innings in that contest and one must wonder how that will affect him today.
The Phillies hand the ball to Jeremy Hellickson (4-1, 3.18 ERA) who was charged with six runs on eight hits with three homers in four innings of an 8-3 loss at Wrigley Field his last start.The Nats won 4-2 when these two pitchers matched up in Washington on April 15, but I think we'll see a higher score today.
Washington won Saturday's meeting 6-2. Over is 7-1 in Phillies last eight when their opponent scores five runs or more in their previous game and 14-4 in Nationals last 18 when their opponent scores two runs or fewer in their previous game.
Marc Lawrence
New York vs. Chicago
Play: New York +125
Edges - Yankees; Severino 3.00 ERA and 1.00 WHIP this season, with 36 K’s and 6 BB’s… Cubs: Lester 2-4 last 6 home team starts vs the Yankees… With the Pinstripes 9-2 the last 11 games in this series, we recommend a 1* play on the NY Yankees.
Stephen Nover
Nationals vs. Phillies
Play: Phillies +119
I know the Phillies may be a hard sell having dropped eight of their last nine games, including the past five, while the Nationals have the best record in baseball at 21-9.
But this spot sets up well for the home underdog Phillies.
The pitching matchup is Jeremy Hellickson versus Tanner Roark. Hellickson has been good in five of his six starts giving up two or fewer runs. This includes two April starts versus the Nationals where he allowed a combined two runs in 12 innings. Philadelphia is 5-0 in Hellickson's past five home starts. It's fair to say Hellickson is the Phillies' No. 1 starter.
Roark is solid, but far from dominant. He's also coming off a career-high 125-pitch count this past Tuesday in his last outing, a 6-3 home loss to Arizona that pushed his ERA to 4.04.
The Phillies' bullpen has some depth, but not a trustworthy closer. However, the Nationals don't even have a closer right now. Blake Treinen couldn't hold the job and Shawn Kelley and Koda Glover are both on the DL. Set-up man Sammy Solis also is on the DL.
The Nationals also could be missing a large part of their offense. Ryan Zimmerman, the hottest hitter in baseball, is going to be rested today, according to Nationals manager Dusty Baker. Bryce Harper has missed the last two games because of groin tightness. Trea Turner is hitless in eight at bats in the series with four strikeouts. Adam Eaton is done for the year. Catcher Matt Weiters might be rested, too, after playing the first two games of the series.
The Nationals' lineup is far less dangerous if Adam Lind, Chris Heisey, Wilmer Difo, Michael Taylor and Jose Lobaton are all in it.
Larry Wallace
Marlins vs. Mets
Play: Mets -125
I like the Mets in this game. Urena went 4-13 with a 5.33 ERA in those first 21 starts while yielding 12 home runs in 109 2/3 innings. Mets are 4-1 L5 games. Marlins are 1-5 L6, 1-4 L5 Urena starts, and 0-5 L5 starts from Urena vs a team with a losing record.
TJ Pemberton
Milwaukee at Pittsburgh
Play: Milwaukee +120
The Milwaukee Brewers will finish up their seven-game road trip on Sunday in Pittsburgh against the Pirates. The Brewers are 3rd in the NL Central with a 15-15 record. Milwaukee is 6-4 over their last ten games, 8-5 on the road this season, and lost to the Pirates 4-0 on Friday. The Brewers are 11-10 against divisional opponents this season and have won five of their last seven against a team from the NL Central. Zach Davies gets the start for the Brewers on Sunday. Davies is 2-2 on the season with 29.2 innings pitched. Davies has 25 strikeouts, 13 walks, and carries a 6.07 ERA. Davies pitched 5 innings in his last start allowing two earned runs. The Brewers average 4.9 runs per game which is 8th in the MLB. The advantage goes to the Brewers on Sunday afternoon with Davies on the mound. The Brewers also have a winning record against divisional opponents while the Pirates are just 6-11.
Jack Jones
Los Angeles vs Houston
Play: Los Angeles -109
The Los Angeles Angels are showing solid value as small home favorites over the Houston Astros today. The Angels have a big edge on the mound this afternoon and should be bigger favorites as a result.
Matt Shoemaker has gone 1-1 with a 4.78 ERA and 1.344 WHIP in six starts this season, including 1-1 with a 3.64 ERA and 1.269 WHIP in his last three starts. Shoemaker has owned the Astros, posting a 2.98 ERA and 1.071 WHIP in eight career starts against them.
Mike Fiers is 0-1 with a 5.68 ERA and 1.540 WHIP in five starts this season, including 0-0 with a 6.75 ERA and 1.725 WHIP in three road starts. Fiers is also 1-2 with a 5.28 ERA in five career starts against the Angels. He gave up 7 earned runs in 3 1/3 innings in his last start at Los Angeles.
Los Angeles is 13-2 (+11.6 Units) against the money line in home games after allowing one run or less over the last two seasons. The Angels are 6-0 in Shoemaker's last six home starts.