Power Sports
San Francisco vs. Cincinnati
Pick: San Francisco
Despite a god-awful record over the last 100 games (worst in MLB!), I do believe the Giants can avoid what would be an embarrassing three-game sweep in Cincinnati w/ Johnny Cueto on the bump. Sure, Cueto's numbers aren't awe-inspiring, but he does have a 5-1 team start record, making him the most profitable pitcher to bet on in the SF rotation. He'll be opposed here by Scott Feldman, who just gave up seven runs in his previous start, which lasted all of four innings.
The Giants haven't just been beaten in the first two games of this three-game set, they've been humiliated. Cincy has outscored them 27-5 and shockingly SF pitching has now allowed 12+ runs in four of the last seven games! Cueto should put a stop to that, however, in the park he used to call home for seven seasons. He always pitched well here at Great American Ballpark while w/ the Reds and won here LY for the first time as a visitor.
Cincinnati is 14-12, which astounds me given their poor preseason projection. This was expected to be the second worst team in all of baseball, ahead of only San Diego, so sooner rather than later the bottom will likely drop out. I can't see the offense continuing to produce anywhere close to the level we've seen them at recently. Feldman is winless in four home starts (0-4 TSR) due in large part to a 5.66 ERA and 1.451 WHIP. The Giants can't be THIS bad, can they? Cueto, at even money, against his former team would have been considered outright thievery only a week or so ago.
Tennis Insiders
Joao Pedro Sorgi v Tennys Sandgren
Play: Pedro Sorgi to win
Tennys Sandgren has already clinched the wildcard into the French Open main draw, having won two back-to-back matches via a deciding set tiebreak. He's spent just over five hours on court the past two days, and primed for a letdown in his fifth Challenger Tour final on Sunday. Sorgi should be the much more motivated of the pairing, he's recorded three straight set wins this week and will be the fresher player both physically & mentally. Sandgren's wildcard will guarantee him his first ever spot in a Grand Slam with a €35000 paycheck. He'll find it difficult to replicate another strong performance on the dirt against a natural clay courter, take Sorgi at a fantastic price to lift his first Challenger title.
MMA OddsBreaker
Chase Sherman vs Rashad Coulter
Pick: Over 1.5
Coulter is a finisher but I don’t see him putting Sherman away early in this contest. I actually think this fight either ends in a late finish or decision, and I do think it could be anybody’s fight. I can’t play either side at the current odds, but I do like the Total of Over 1.5 rounds at near dog odds.
Bruce Marshall
Chicago at Baltimore
Pick: Chicago
Suddenly finding his groove is Chisox starter Jose Quintana, who after a rough start in 2017 has settled down with three good pitching efforts in a row, allowing just 4 runs and 14 hits over his last 20 IP. The Pale Hose have lost the last two days at Camden Yards and need this one for a split, and Birds starter Chris TGillman comes off of the DL to make his first start this season on Sunday.
Scott Rickenbach
Reds vs Giants
Play: Over 8.5
Yesterday’s game saw 16 runs scored for the 2nd straight day in this series. The Reds are on an insane over streak that has seen them go 12-2 to the over in their last 14 games. With Scott Feldman on the mound Sunday for Cincinnati, I expect the streak to continue. The Reds right-hander has been roughed up for 11 earned runs in just 9 innings spanning his last two starts. The Giants had scored 4 runs or more in 5 of their last 6 games prior to this series. I expect their bats to come back to life today after scoring a total of only 5 runs in the first two games of this series. Johnny Cueto gets the start for the Giants against his former team and he got rocked for 6 earned runs in just 5 innings when he faced them last season. Also, Cueto has been bothered by a blister on the middle finger of his pitching hand. That certainly won’t help him here as he faces a red hot Reds lineup that has scored an average of 7 runs per game during their current 6-1 hot streak their last 7 games! Cueto has a 4.86 ERA on the season and all 6 of his starts have resulted in an over. There is no reason to expect that trend to change direction here as the wind will be blowing out at hitter-friendly Great American Ballpark for this one.
Jeff Benton
Friday night's game landed on 209 combined points, and just shy of the Over which was sitting around 213 points. That was the first Under in the 3 games played, and dropped the Cavaliers to 5-2 Over the total in their 7 postseason games this year.
Cleveland is still 11-4 Over the total in their last 15 games dating back to the regular season, and I like the dominant Over trend to move to 12-4 Over after this one is completed.
The Raptors are now on the verge of being swept out of the playoffs, that after stretching the Cavs to 6 games in last year's conference finals. You know they have some pride, and even with the sweep a strong possibility, I do expect Toronto to at least hit the century mark in this game and help send this game Over the posted price.
5 of Toronto's last 6 conference semifinal games have landed Over the total, and each of their last 4 Sunday contests going back to the regular season have also landed High.
Game 4 to go Over at the Air Canada Centre.
1* CLEVELAND-TORONTO OVER
Brad Wilto
Well, Friday night resulted in a closer final score than the other 2 games contested in this series, but still not the closeness that we saw in the regular season meetings between the Spurs and Rockets.
As a refresher, the teams met 4 times in the regular season, and 3 of the 4 were decided by a single basket, the other meeting decided by just 6 points! It would follow that the postseason should also feature close-natured games, but that has not been the case, as Game 1 was decided by 27 points, Game 2 by 25 points, and Game 3 did "tighten" up a little as it was decided by 11 points.
I still feel we have a barn-burner waiting for us, and I will look for that barn-burner to be tonight at the Toyota Center.
James Harden netted 43 in Friday's loss, so not sure what more The Beard can do to help his team win this game?
San Antonio got by their first test without Tony Parker just fine, and while they will miss the longtime star, Coach Popp is savvy enough to continue to find ways to keep his team competitive.
Maybe Houston evens things, but if they do, this is the one that will most resemble the teams regular season showdowns.
Take the points.
3* SAN ANTONIO
Chris Jordan
My free winner for Sunday is the Baltimore Orioles, over the Chicago White Sox, and make note I am NOT listing pitchers in this game as it is not necessary.
While I know Baltimore is dealing with a number of pitching and injury issues, it's not affecting the win column, as the O's have won three straight.
Just six days into the month, Baltimore ranks in the top 10 in baseball with its .263 batting average, while its 56 hits rank seventh in the league. Meanwhile, the White Sox are hitting .239 this month, which is in the lower half of the league at No. 21.
Take Baltimore in this one, and don't bother listing pitchers, as the Orioles make it four in a row.
5* ORIOLES
Ross Benjamin
Diamondbacks vs. Rockies
Play: Diamondbacks +110
Tyler Chatwood has been substantially been better on the road than at home in his young career with Colorado. Chatwood is 4-12 in his career team starts at home when the Rockies are -100 to -150. The Rockies right-handed hurler has displayed poor form over his last 3 starts by posting a sizable 7.16 ERA and 1.90 WHIP.
Arizona starter Tijuan Walker has been relatively solid during 6 starts this season, posting a respectable 4.19 ERA, and Arizona was a very profitable 5-1 in those games. The Diamondbacks bullpen has compiled a stellar 2.42 ERA over their last 7 games.
Larry Ness
Detroit vs. Oakland
Pick: Oakland
The Tigers won on Friday 7-2 but the A's rallied to win last night. The Athletics were down to their final out before a walk, a double and Adam Rosales' two-run single off Francisco Rodriguez gave them a 6-5 victory. It was Oakland's sixth win in eight home games (now 8-7 at home this season) giving them an overall 13-17 mark. The Tigers look to remain above .500 (15-14 so far in 2017), as the teams meet in the rubber match of this three-game series Sunday afternoon.
The Tigers send Daniel Norris (2-2, 4.00 ERA) to the mound and Oakland will counter with Sonny Gray (0-1, 6.00 ERA), who makes his second start of 2017. Norris bounced back from a pair of poor outings to defeat Cleveland on Monday, as he struck out eight and allowed only one run despite being reached for five hits and four walks in six innings. He had allowed(nine ERs on 17 hits over 8.2 innings in his previous two starts, both losses. Norris faces Oakland for the first time in his career in this game.
Gray missed the first month of the season with a lat strain and his 2017 debut was not a smooth one, as he allowed four runs on five hits (three of them HRs!) over six innings of a 9-1 loss at Minnesota last Tuesday. Gray owns a 1-2 record and 3.41 ERA in five career starts against Detroit (team is 2-3).
Oakland's 6-5 victory on Saturday was its first walk-off win of the season but that only makes them 3-9 its last 12 games. Injuries have limited Gray to just 23 starts since the beginning of 2016 and he hardly looks ready for prime time at this stage of 2017.
Oskeim Sports
Boston at Minnesota
Play: Boston -164
Boston southpaw Chris Sale is making a lot of Red Sox fans happy with his impeccable 1.38 ERA and 0.74 WHIP this season, and that success should continue against a Minnesota lineup that is averaging just 3.9 runs per game versus left-handed starters (.319 OBP; .701 OPS).
Behind Sale's ERA are elite 12.42 K/9, 1.58 BB/9 and 0.39 HR/9 rates. Equally impressive is Sale's 1.44 FIP, 2.14 xFIP and 2.12 SIERA.
Sale has become nearly impossible to predict under the tutelage of Boston's pitching coaches. He is throwing his fastball less than he has in years (61% last year with the White Sox vs. 45.8% this season).
Sale's first-pitch fastball rate has dropped 19 percentage points and has declined nearly 20 percentage points when batters are ahead in the count. The result is increased usage of his plus-slider (which rates better than Jacob deGrom's) and plus-changeup (which rates better than Stephen Strasburg's).
The 28-year-old is backed by a solid Boston bullpen that owns a 2.24 ERA and 1.14 WHIP this season, including a 2.01 ERA and 1.21 WHIP in day games and a 2.14 ERA and 1.28 WHIP over its last seven games. Conversely, Minnesota's middling bullpen enters today's contest with a 4.29 ERA, including a 4.19 ERA at home and an 8.10 ERA in its last seven games.
Minnesota right-hander Ervin Santana leads the Majors in ERA (5-0, 0.66 ERA), although his 4.14 SIERA is far more predictive of his future results. The veteran hurler is ripe for regression based on his unsustainable .141 BABIP and 99.2% strand rate (are you kidding me?!).
Santana is 5-6 with a 5.11 ERA and 1.27 WHIP in sixteen career starts against the Red Sox. The Twins are a money-burning 5-17 in Santana's last 22 starts versus teams with a winning record, including 1-8 in his last nine starts at home.
Minnesota is also 17-35 versus American League East opponents, 15-37 versus .501 or greater opposition and 21-44 at home versus teams with a winning record.
With Boston standing at 6-0 in game 3 of a series and the Twins losing their last five game 3 situations, take the Red Sox and invest with confidence.
Jimmy Boyd
Chicago vs. Baltimore
Play: Chicago +109
I like the value here with Chicago as a dog in the series finale against the Orioles. The White Sox will send out their ace in Jose Quintana, who has really come on strong after a slow start. Quintana owns a 1.80 ERA and 1.050 WHIP in his last 3 starts and just thew 8 shutout innings at KC in his most recent start.
Baltimore will counter with Chris Tillman, who is considered the ace of the Orioles staff. The thing is, this is Tillman's first start of 2017 because of a shoulder problem. I'm not saying he can't pitch well, I just don't think he will be anywhere near his best in his first start. He'll also likely be on a short pitch count. The White Sox offense isn't great, but they are in good form with 15 runs and 31 hits over their last 3 games.
Bob Balfe
Mariners -130
The Rangers have not been good against left handed pitching and are facing a team that has the second most RBIs in baseball against right handed pitching. The Rangers have given Cashner no run support this year and with a weak bullpen that never is a good combo to get wins on the board.
Brandon Lee
Red Sox vs. Twins
Play: Under 7
No need to overthink this one. The value here is with the UNDER in Sunday's matchup between the Red Sox and Twins. We got two of the best starters of 2017 facing off here. Boston gives the ball to Chris Sale, who has a 1.38 ERA and 0.744 WHIP in 6 starts and Minnesota will counter with Ervin Santana and his sensational 0.66 ERA and 0.707 WHIP in 6 starts. UNDER is 6-0 in Sale's 6 starts and 4-1-1 in Santana's 6 outings.
Handicappers Hub
San Antonio at Houston
Play: Houston -5½
The Houston Rockets struggled from the field in Game 3 shooting just 12/39 from 3 and 36% from the field and I don't expect that again from this team that can flat out score the Basketball. The Rockets will come out tonight in their home court with a lot of energy and look for them to get hot from 3 and run away with this game for a double digit win!