Eric Schroeder
My free winner for Saturday cashed in, as Always Dreaming ran pretty close to the race I described, as he pulled away down the stretch for the win. Today I've got my skates on, and I'm playing the Edmonton Oilers over the Anaheim Ducks.
At home, and backed into a corner, the Oilers are in must-win mode here. They also have to be extremely pissed off after the way they lost Game 5 on Friday night.
With less than four minutes left, Edmonton led Anaheim 3-0, but the Ducks managed to comeback for a 4-3 win in overtime, and take a 3-2 lead in the Western Conference semifinal series.
Remember, after two games in this series, the Oilers were up 2-0 with two road wins. Then the Ducks won a pair right here in Edmonton.
If there was ever a revenge game waiting to happen, it's this game tonight, and I'm counting on the Oilers to score the win over Anaheim.
5* OILERS
Jack Brayman
The Cincinnati Reds have won four in a row overall, and over the past six seasons, they own a 27-16 mark against the San Francisco Giants. Since 2008, the Reds are 38-24 against Frisco, and that .612 winning percentage is the highest of any Giants opponent in that span.
Don't list pitchers in this game, as the Reds are going to win this one on pure momentum, while the Giants continue to struggle on the road.
The Reds rank fifth in the bigs with their .266 batting average, and are second in the league just six days into May with a .317 batting average this month.
Cincinnati is second in the league with its 45 runs in May, while its slugging percentage of .543 this month is third.
Take the Reds as my complimentary winner.
5* REDS
Harry Bondi
DETROIT +110 over Oakland
Oakland starter Sonny Gray began the season on the DL and his first start back was a disaster as the A’s dropped a 9-1 decision to the Twins. We don’t see much changing here in his second start back, especially since the Tigers send southpaw Daniel Norris to the hill. Norris has pitched well on the road this year and Oakland is just 35-63 the last three seasons when facing left-handed starters.
Zack Cimini
White Sox at Orioles
Play: White Sox
Long time Baltimore ace Chris Tillman takes the mound Sunday opposed White Sox ace Jose Quintana. Quintana hasn't had much success to start the season with an ERA north of four. Yet this is an attractive buy with the Orioles 19-10 record and aiming to sweep the White Sox at home.
SPORTS WAGERS
Miami +109 over N.Y. METS
Jose Urena went 4-9 with a 6.13 ERA in 84 innings for Miami last year. He rode the AAA shuttle in the first half and the odometer is likely to keep rolling but there are signs that suggest we shouldn’t cross him off just yet. Urena throws 96 MPH on the gun without breaking a sweat. He has one of those “live arms’ that scouts look for. Urena started 21 times between 2015 and 2016 without success. So far in 2017, Urena has had surface success as evidenced by an ERA over 15 innings of 2.35 but that’s a small sample size. Urena’s xERA says there's still plenty of work to do but the talent is there and he’s a much better option than what’s waiting on the other side.
Adam Wilk cannot be favored. He’s a late replacement for Matt Harvey to start so he woke up this morning expecting something different. Wilk was called up on April 17 to help the bullpen with long relief but he was not needed and was sent right back down. The 6'2", 180-pound Wilk got a brief taste of the majors in 2011 and again in 2012 (where he made three starts), but otherwise has been stuck in Triple-A. Wilk is a starter who throws four pitches, but his fastball only reaches the upper-80s so it doesn't set up his cutter, curve and changeup enough to allow him to dominate batters. His control is quite good, being very stingy with his walks but his strikeout rate is usually in the five per nine range, and his home run rate at Triple-A has typically been over 1.3 per nine innings. Indeed, he gave up a home run on his first night pitching after his call up. In four seasons at the Triple-A level, the 27-year-old has a minor-league ERA of 4.74, a .291 oppBA and a whole bunch of other ugly numbers that aren’t likely going to turn into something good at this level. The Mets needed an emergency starter and this one is up by the process of elimination.
Toronto +126 over TAMPA BAY
n six starts, Alex Cobb has some decent surface stats. Cobb is 2-2 with a 3.86 ERA and he’s coming off a six-inning, four-hit gem (on paper) against the Marlins in which he did not allow a single run. We say on paper because Cobb struck out two batters and one of those was Miami’s pitcher. He also walked two. Frankly, that’s been the story of his early season so far. Cobb is a blow-up waiting to happen because he’s putting the ball in play far too often. In 35 innings, Cobb has a mere 23 K’s. His WHIP is 1.43, which is well above our 1.30 threshold of acceptability. Cobb’s swing and miss rate has gone from 11% in his first two starts to 9% in his next two to 7% in his last two. Remember, this is a guy that threw just 22 innings last year after undergoing TJS. He appears to be laboring more with each passing start and his 5.13 xERA over his last five starts reveals a pitcher that is on the brink of some poor outings, Cobb is on our radar as a fade target and we’ll put that to the test here.
We’re usually not in favor of backing relievers turned starters but Joe Biagini is a starter turned reliever. He was a starter for 86 games in the Giants farm system before being picked up in the Rule 5 draft in December of 2015. The Giants were developing him one level per year after they selected him in the 26th round of the 2011 draft. Biagini has a tall, beefy frame that allows him to pitch downhill and induce groundballs. He has a deep repertoire of pitches to keep hitters off-guard. Biagini has appeared in 14 games this season and has a BB/K split of 3/17 over 19 innings to go along with an elite 58% groundball rate. He’s not going to be overwhelmed by starting. He was thrust into important innings late last year and handled it intrepidly. His impeccable control in relief can stick given his top-tier first-pitch strike rate and a concurrent surge in swing and miss rate also supports another increase in strikeouts. With these skills, Biagini could quickly become a story around these parts but right now, he’s an undervalued starter turned reliever turned starter. We’re on it.
N.Y. Yankees +118 over CHICAGO
We hope we’re not too late to this party, as the Yanks go for the sweep here and we like their chances. Jon Lester is 33 years old with over 2000 innings pitched in his career. He has two quality starts in six tries this year and one of those occurred against the punchless Pirates. Everything in Lester’s profile is trending the wrong way. He comes in with a horrible 1.49 WHIP. His first-pitch strike rate is 54%. In his last start, Lester walked five batters. His fastball now tops off at 91.7 MPH, which is down another tick from last year. His ERA/xERA split is 3.86/4.91 but an 80% strand rate has prevented what should be more damage. A pitcher’s arm is not a machine. The wear and tear take a serious toll and while Lester is still capable of throwing a good game, all indications are that he’s struggling badly out there, which is why we look extensively under the hood.
Luis Severino’s average pitch velocity is 97 MPH. He’s also been one of the biggest early-season surprises so far in 2017. His stats have been top-tier (3.86 ERA, 0.95 WHIP) and so have his skills with 11 K’s/9, 1.3 BB’s/9 and a 56% groundball rate. Severino’s swinging strike rate has surged from 7.9% in 2016 to 12.8% so far in 2017. His ability to pound the lower part of the strike zone has helped drive up his whiffs and groundballs. In 33 innings, Severino has a BB/K split of 6/36 to go along with an xERA of 2.97. Oh, and the Yanks are winning and bashing again. Overlay.
Arizona -1½ +175 over COLORADO
We’re not going to go into a lot of details here regarding the pitchers because it matters not when playing at Coors Field. We are going to commit to playing the underdog all season long at Coors Field on the ALTERNATIVE run line. What that means is that we are playing the remainder of Colorado’s home games this season and we’ll be playing the underdog in each game, whether it’s the Rocks or the opposition and we’ll be playing it regardless of who’s pitching. We’re suggesting that this wager has nothing but big profits in store. With totals being in the 10 to 12½ range daily at this venue, far more games are decided by two runs or more than one run and the underdog wins just as much as the favorite. The pitching matchups rarely matter because even the best get rocked at this park. We’ll keep a running record on this angle all season long.
Year to date:
5-8 +1.88 units
SEATTLE -1½ +157 over Texas
Texas has five wins in 15 road games. They lost last night, 8-2 and have now dropped five of its last seven games. On the road, the Rangers are batting a mere .211 and will now face a pitcher that most of this market will not recognize (nor will the Rangers) in Dillon Overton.
Overton has appeared in four games this season, all in relief, covering seven innings. We’re not going to focus on that. His stat line, however, shows a 6.14 ERA over those seven innings but again, it’s too small a sample size and means little. Allow us to bring you up to speed on Overton. He’s 25-years-old and was a highly regarded second-round pick in 2013, but succumbed to Tommy John surgery shortly after the draft. He was a true sleeper in the minors, as he has well above average intelligence and he throws pinpoint strikes with three quality offerings. Overton continues to slowly regain the velocity he lost from surgery, though he still mostly sits between 90-92 mph with his fastball. While it isn’t back to the mid-90s range, he’s learned to cut and sink it and he’s getting a high amount of groundballs. Overton also has a very good curveball and change-up, though neither are plus pitches. Because of his deceptive delivery and keen sequencing, he can be very successful despite the lack of plus velocity. If he can somehow find more ticks in the tank and keep the rest of his game intact, he could be a valuable big league starter for years to come. He had a career 3.06 ERA in the minors prior, which doesn’t mean much today but we’re willing to go with him and the M’s today because Andrew Cashner is another one of our high fade targets
Cashner’s peripherals are on an ominous four-year slide, and it's across the board. Walks and fly-ball rate are up while his first-pitch-strike rate (54%), swinging strike rate (7%) and strikeouts are all down. There are folks in this market that will see Cashner’s 2.95 ERA after four starts and buy it but it’s the biggest illusion in MLB this year. Cashner has walked 16 batters in 21 innings while striking out 10. You may want to read that last sentence one more time. He has a 1.50 WHIP to go along with a 6.24 xERA. Cashner’s wide gap between ERA and xERA is the largest gap among starters with four or more starts this season. To recap, Cashner has warning signs galore. A massive control decline, worst xERA of his career and a troubling xERA trend, issues with HR’s, crumbling strikeout rate and well below-average swing and miss rate. Yesterday, we pointed out similar under the hood numbers on San Fran’s Ty Blach’s 2.55 ERA and he surrendered 10 runs in two innings. Balls will be hit hard off of Cashner and it’ll come with men on base. If they’re hit right at people, that’s just unlucky but we’ll take our chances.
Dennis Macklin
Dodgers vs. Padres
Play: Dodgers -137
Brandon McCarthy is having a nice year at 3-0 with a 3.10 ERA. He's a solid vet and a perfect No.3-4 type of guy who will give you quality starts and a chance to win every time he toes the rubber. He's been especially good on the road and faces a team (8-1, 3.79) that he's had success against in the past.
Bruce Marshall
New York vs. Chicago
Play: New York +125
The Cubs hardly look untouchable yet this season and are on the verge of being swept at home for the second time in three weeks if the Yankees complete the job on Sunday. Though a loser to the Blue Jays in his last outing, NY starter Luis Severino delivered three straight quality starts prior. Meanwhile Cubs starter Jon Lester has seen his ERA rise almost three runs in his last three starts, in none of which he pitched beyond 6 innings.
Stephen Nover
San Francisco vs. Cincinnati
Pick: San Francisco -111
The Giants aren't playing well and are banged-up in the outfield. But this low price puts me on San Francisco in a pitching matchup of Johnny Cueto versus Scott Feldman.
Cueto remains an elite hurler and is pumped to go against his former team. San Francisco has won 16 of Cueto's last 22 road stars and 28 of his last 39 overall starts. The Giants are 5-1 in Cueto's starts this season.
The Reds, on the other hand, are 1-5 in Feldman's starts this season. That makes sense considering Feldman's ERA is close to 5.00 Feldman is 1-4 lifetime against the Giants with a 3.86 ERA.
I also trust the Giants' late relief more than Cincinnati's.
Wunderdog
Boston @ Minnesota
Pick: Boston -163
Boston comes off an 11-1 rout of the Twins yesterday and has ace Chris Sale (1.38 ERA) going today. Batters are hitting .166 off Sale with an incredible 63-8 strikeout to walk ratio in 45+ innings. With another 10-strikeout game Sunday, Sale will break his tie with Pedro Martinez (2001) for the most consecutive starts with double-digit strikeouts in club history. The Red Sox are 7-3 on the road against a team with a losing home record. Minnesota has lost two of three, all at home, and is getting outscored 22-10. The Twins are #19 in baseball in runs scored and #18 in homers. 34-year old Ervin Santana has a 4.89 ERA in 14 starts against the Red Sox. The Twins are 21-44 at home against a team with a winning record, plus 5-17 when Santana faces a team with a winning record.
Bryan Leonard
Los Angeles at San Diego
Play: San Diego +130
We grade Trevor Cahill as 7% better than Dodgers starter Brandon McCarthy. While LA pounded the Pads yesterday we expect San Diego to get the better of the Dodgers here. LA is just a league average hitting team on the road while San Diego is actually 2% better when playing in Petco Park. LA is a substantial favorite here and catching the Padres as a nice paying dog is worth the minimal risk.
Vic Duke
Cavs vs. Raptors
Play: Cavs -6½
Cleveland/Toronto 3:30: With Kyle Lowry (ankle) unable to go, Toronto should fizzle out again here. Lowry is the major ball distributor that ignites the offense. And defensively, an underrated stopper. Corey Joseph did a decent job in Game 3 but not quite the caliber of Lowry. Also disappointed in the Toronto bench production. And despite the fact that DeRozan snapped out of his funk in Game 3, the Raptors have the inability to finish in big games. Cleveland has too many offensive weapons, especially when Korver is heated up.
Teddy Davis
Diamondbacks vs. Rockies
Play: Diamondbacks +115
I will take the D Backs here at a short dog price on the road. Chatwood is really struggling right now with a 5.40 ERA on the season. He also isn't in the best form either entering this game with an ERA of 7.72 in his last three games.
Pro Computer Gambler
Astros vs. Angels
Play: Astros -105
The Astros are 42-29 ON since May 28, 2016 on the road In database history, first half of the season, road division dogs that aren't off of a home loss are 11951436 +154.01 units