DAVE COKIN
PHILLIES AT MARLINS
PLAY: PHILLIES -101
Aaron Nola is turning out to be a much better pitcher than I thought he’d likely be. Nola looked like a very high floor prospect coming out of out of school, but he also wasn’t projected as an ultra-high ceiling guy. It might be time for some reassessment on that count. This guy has a curveball that is just plain nasty and Nola is clearly pitching at an All-Star level in his first full season in the majors.
Time will tell if he has true staying power, but Nola is definitely not a pitcher I want to try and beat right now. All his pitches are working, his control has been impeccable, and when balls get put into play, they’re generally not being hit with a great deal of authority.
I’ve got to give Nola a substantial edge over Justin Nicolino today. The Marlins southpaw simply doesn’t miss many bats and he’s a pitcher who will consistently be dependent on good defense and some BABIP good fortune. I don’t see Nicolino as more than a back end of the rotation starter and to be honest, I might be a shade high with even that projection. Admittedly, I have a bias against pitchers who can’t get the K when it’s most needed. While I occasionally go a little overboard on that stat, I’ll be adamant that a pitcher who might not even be able to average 4 strikeouts per 9 innings is not likely to enjoy a successful career as a major league starter.
The Phillies have not done much with the sticks against lefties so far this season. But they did knock Wei-Yin Chen around on Friday and I have to think they can get some good things done against Nicolino as well. The Phillies ended up losing on Friday after rallying against Miami. But the Phils will have some positive momentum here after a nice comeback win last night. Yes, they got a little lucky as the winning run scored when Miami 1B Chris Johnson simply dropped a center of the glove throw on what should have been an inning ending double play. But these Phillies have been mighty opportunistic so far, and this was just another game they found a way to win.
I’m a little surprised at this price. No question the Marlins have been on fire, but the starting pitcher edge for Philadelphia looks pretty substantial to me. I thought this would come something like Phillies -115, and on my homework I actually made it closer to -130. At virtually even money, it’s a relatively easy decision and I’m backing Nola and the Phillies.
Bruce Marshall
Padres / Mets Over 7.5
Mets starter Matt Harvey still does not quite resemble his form prior to arm surgery a few years ago. Harvey's high ERA (4.76) and OBA (.311) suggest he has simply become too easy to hit, and even San Diego can take advantage. Meanwhile, Padres starter Andrew Cashner (7 walks past two outings) continues to have control issues, and like Harvey has an ERA near 5 (4.85).
Rob Vinciletti
Rangers vs. Tigers
Play: Tigers -143
The Tigers are a solid 6-0 as a home favorite off a home loss by 5 or more runs. Texas is 1-6 in Day games and 0-3 on Sunday. Verlander for Detroit has a solid 3.17 career Era vs the Rangers. Perez is 0-3 on the road with a 6.75 era this season. Detroit also fits a 13-2 MLB Power system that pertains to home favorites off a home loss by 5+ runs that scored 5 or more in the loss. Look for the Tigers to take the finale.
Jack Jones
New York Mets -145
I'm backing the New York Mets behind Matt Harvey Sunday against the San Diego Padres. While both Harvey and San Diego starter Andrew Cashner have struggled this season, there's no question that the Mets have the better starter on the mound.
Harvey has posted a 4.76 ERA through six starts this season, so he actually comes in undervalued. he has been better of late, going 2-1 with a 3.78 ERA in his last three starts. Harvey is also 1-1 with a 3.50 ERA and 1.000 WHIP in three career starts against San Diego.
Andrew Cashner is 2-2 with a 4.85 ERA and 1.416 WHIP in six starts this season for the Padres. He certainly hasn't enjoyed facing the Mets, going 0-2 with a 7.88 ERA and 1.813 WHIP in three career starts against them, all of which have come over the past two seasons.
The Mets are 14-3 in their last 17 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30. New York is 37-16 in its last 53 road games. The Padres are 8-20 in Cashner's last 28 starts with 4 days of rest.
Scott Spreitzer
Pirates vs. Cardinals
Play: Cardinals -122
Matt Carpenter is beginning to heat-up, including yesterday's game winning homer in the bottom of the 9th. The Bucs have to be a little stunned after yesterday's results and after getting hammered by the Cubs before the weekend series with the Redbirds. Today, they'll face Cardinal hurler Michael Wacha. The right-hander has helped his team to a 21-7 record in his last 28 starts at Busch Stadium. Wacha is putting up top-shelf numbers in 2016 and will be backed by an offense that ranks 4th, 4th, and 1st, in team batting average, OBP, and OPS against right-handed pitchers. Wacha has allowed just four earned runs and 15 base runners with 17 strikeouts in his last two starts, spanning 15 innings, yet the Cards didn't score a single run in either game. But with the way they're hitting righties and with Carpenter heating up, I do believe they'll give Wacha enough support against Gerrit Cole. St. Louis has made a habit of beating overused bullpens, those averaging at least 4 IP per game, going 72-33 and averaging 5 rpg the last 105 times. Pittsburgh's pen fits the bill. We'll back the Cardinals as they look to extend their run as home chalk to 63-28.
Welcome back, you were missed let me tell you!
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Martin Griffiths
DC United vs. New York City FC
Play: DC United PK½ +112
New York City travel to Washington looking to extend their unbeaten run to three games, however, DC United look good for the win in what should be a tight affair.
Having watched both these teams in recent weeks I am of the opinion that DC are the more settled unit, certainly on the pitch, their defence looks stronger and I am confident they can cope with City's rather predictable midfield and forward line, some of whom will be collecting their pensions soon.
Brandon Shively
Phillies vs. Marlins
Play: Phillies -101
I am usually not one to step in front of a streaking team, but today the pitching matchup calls for it and it looks like the Marlins run of recent good luck came to an end yesterday.The Phillies will call on Aaron Nola who has a 0.80 WHIP through six starts and the Phillies have won his last three starts. Nola has the best curveball by far in baseball this season. Nola is attacking more with his fastballs. He’s shown a better ability to locate, and Nola, overall, has a league-leading rate of strikes. He has 44K to only 7 BB on the season. He has only given up 4 hits in his last two starts (against the Cardinals and the Nationals) and got the win for nice plus money. I'll take him here again basically as a ‘pick em’.
Justin Nicolino for the Marlins only has two strikeouts in 13.1 IP while walking five batters. That is a red flag for me. Last year, he made 12 starts for the Marlins and had a very pedestrian K/BB percentage and this year he is at -5.8% through two starts.
Nola faced the Marlins last year and went 8 scoreless innings only giving up 3 hits as the Phillies won the game, 2-0. Look for him to toss another gem and for the offense to manufacture enough runs for the win.
Welcome back, you were missed let me tell you!
🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂
Thanks, feels good to get out of bed for a bit. Pain isn't to bad but sore as hell.
Jim Feist
Mets vs. Padres
Play: Under 7½
Petco Park is huge, great for pitchers, and the New York Mets rank No. 16 in baseball in runs scored, No. 20 in batting average. Matt Harvey likes facing San Diego, with a 1.38 ERA against them the last three-plus seasons. San Diego is a weak offensive team, No. 22 in baseball in runs scored, and the under is 17-8-2 when the Padres face a right-handed starter. Andrew Cashner throws best in this park with batters hitting .228 off him. The under is 34-13-5 when the Padres are at home against a team with a road winning percentage of greater than .600.
Bob Harvey
Cavs vs. Hawks
Play: Cavs -5
The Cleveland Cavaliers look to sweep their way into the Eastern Conference finals when they visit the Atlanta Hawks in Game 4 of their second-round series.
The Cavaliers (64-25, 42-44 ATS) have used a record setting three-point shooting display to take a 3-0 series lead. They drained 21 three’s on Friday, four shy of their historic performance in Game 2. Channing Frye knocked down seven 3-pointers and scored 27 points in Friday's 121-108 victory, which marked the Cavaliers' 11th consecutive postseason win over the Hawks. Cleveland has now made 61 treys in the series -- the most through three games of any playoff set in NBA history.
The Hawks (52-39, 45-45 ATS) played better on offense in Friday’s loss with Al Horford scored 24 points on 11-of-15 shooting while Kyle Korver came off the bench to score 18. Still it appears Atlanta is overmatched and it would be a pretty big surprise if they aren’t dispatched easily tonight.
The Cavs are 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings in Atlanta and 7-0 ATS in the last seven meetings overall. The favorite is 4-0 ATS in the last four series meetings. Cleveland is also 4-0 vs. the number in its last four conference semi-final games
The OVER is 6-2 in the last eight meetings and 4-1 in the Cavaliers last five meetings. The UNDER is 8-3 in the Hawks last 11 overall and 8-3 to the low side in the past 11 against the Eastern Conference
Dave Price
Los Angeles Angels -123
The Los Angeles Angels figure to be hungry for a victory today against the Tampa Bay Rays. They have lost the first 2 games of this series and 4 of their last 5 overall, so they certainly want a win here to avoid getting swept at home. I like their chances with Nick Tropeano getting the ball. He has been a blessing for the Angels this season, going 1-1 with a 3.42 ERA in 5 starts. The Angels are 47-23 (+15.4 Units) against the money line as a home favorite of -110 or higher over the last 2 seasons.
Larry Ness
New York Mets at San Diego Padres
Prediction: New York Mets
The Mets won EIGHT in a row from April 22-30, as their rotation posted a 2.51 ERA during that streak. However, a lack of run support since then has led to some ordinary results. The Mets scored 50 times during their eight-game run but only 16 times in the six that followed, going 2-4. New York starters weren’t to blame, as they posted a 2.84 ERA in the six games after the streak. The Mets are hoping the team’s dip in production is a thing of the past, as New York went deep FOUR times in a 6-3 win over San Diego last night. Yoenis Cespedes hit his 10th of the season, while David Wright and Michael Conforto added back-to-back solo blasts in the ninth. Most surprising was a two-run shot by Bartolo Colon, who turns 43 on May 24. He became the oldest player to hit his first major league home run!
Matt Harvey (2-4, 4.76 ERA) takes the mound Sunday looking to help the the Mets salvage a four-game split against the Padres. He’s 1-1 with a 3.50 ERA in three career starts against the Padres (Mets are 1-2). Harvey is blaming his early struggles on bad mechanics and not his heavy 2015 workload in his comeback from Tommy John surgery. He was 5-1 with a 2.72 ERA after his first six starts last season. "My body doesn't feel bad," Harvey told MLB's official website. "I don't feel tired. I don't feel any downside from the workload last year. It's just right now, I'm in a little funk with my mechanics, and we're working to get rid of that." Opposing Harvey will be Andrew Cashner (2-2, 4.85 ERA), who has notched three quality starts in his last four outings. He'll now try to win consecutive outings for the first time since a three-start streak in September 2014. However, Cashner is 0-2 with a 7.88 ERA in three career starts against New York (Padres are 1-2)
Cashner has been a reliable starter for the Padres here at Petco but it’s my belief that Harvey is about to go on a run. That’s my bet, as well.
MMA OddsBreaker
Madadi vs. Cabral
Pick: Madadi
This isn't just a play on Madadi, it's more a fade on his opponent Yan Cabral's conditioning. Cabral is an elite Brazilian jiu-jitsu specialist, but he always gasses in his fights that last over a round. If Cabral can't put Madadi away, his conditioning is going to fail him and Madadi will take over. Madadi should be even or slightly better than Cabral on the feet and if he can keep the fight there, he's going to be in a good position to win. Madadi is older, but he has a ton of heart and I think that carries him through here.
Soccer Authority
Malaga vs. Celta Vigo
Pick: Malaga
Celta Vigo have won only 2 of their last 6 games despite 5 of them being against bottom-half teams
Celta have won only 3 of their last 8 home games against teams placed 4th-12th and those success were all by one goal margins.
Celta will be missing influential defender Gustavo Cabral, Celta's 'Goal against per game ratio' increases significantly when he doesn't play so we're not expecting a clean sheet for Celta.
Malaga are unbeaten in 7 of their last 9 La Liga games.
Malaga have won 3 of the last 4 meetings between the sides.