Marc Lawrence
Minnesota at Chicago
Pick: Chicago
Edges - White Sox: Carlos Quintana 5-1 team starts with 1.40 ERA and 0.98 WHIP this season, including 2-0 with 0.60 ERA and 0.67 WHIP at home. Twins: 2-14 last sixteen division games. With Quintana 2-0 with a 1.50 ERA his last two stats in this series, we recommend a 1* play on the White Sox.
Sleepyj
Rockies / Giants Over 8
I like this one over the total today...Samardzija has been rock solid and he had great success against this Rockies lineup already this year..That concerns me today though..A second look for these Rockies should produce some more hits and runs here...Rockies are also looking to avoid a series series 3-1 loss....I expect them to apply the pressure here today and something tells me Samardzija gives up a few..On the flip side the Rockies will send out Butler...Butler hasn't been good and his last start was a rough one..He gave up 5 ER and 2 Hr's in just 5 innings of work on the road..Another road start here today against this Giants lineup could be trouble...Rockies bullpen might be in play here as well...I can see this one getting over the total after a red hot start to this one..Few bombs might be on tap here.
Glad to see you back blade. Went through 3 of them myself over the past thirty years . Try to walk as much as you can it really helps. Best wishes.
Glad to see you back blade. Went through 3 of them myself over the past thirty years . Try to walk as much as you can it really helps. Best wishes.
Thanks, getting up and doing a few laps around the house actually feels great, it's laying flat on my back is when it gets being uncomfortable.
ASA
Spurs / Thunder Over 198
Obviously, math, statistics, predictive models and game simulators have a lot to do with our handicapping process (along with everything else) and the numbers tell us this O/U number is to low and the value lies with the 'over'. Based on the pace of play of the games in this series we expect another higher scoring game tonight. When these same two teams met on this court during the regular season the oddsmakers posted a number of 207 and 207.5 on the two games and now we are looking at a number much less than that tonight. In 5 of the seven meetings this season between these two teams at least one of the two has scored 100 or more points and three of those contests ended with a club topping 111+ points. The Spurs shoot over 48% as a team on the road (2nd best in NBA) while the Thunder shoot over 47.4% at home (4th best in NBA). In Game #3 both teams shot it well below season standards with the Spurs connecting on just 43.4% of their attempts while the Thunder hit just 41.5% of their attempts. Even with both teams struggling to make field goals the game still totaled 196 points. Westbrook for OKC was especially bad going 10 of 31 from the field and he missed a ton of easy shots at the rim. San Antonio is the 10th highest scoring road team in the NBA averaging 102PPG while the Thunder are the 2nd highest scoring team at home averaging 109PPG. Did you know that 9 of the last eleven meetings in OKC between these two team has stayed under? Well, let's discredit that trend with the following 'value' numbers. Tonight's O/U line is the lowest in the last 14 meetings between these two teams in Oklahoma City with 7 of the last eight all having Totals of 206 or higher AND six of those last eight ended with 200 or more points. The oddsmakers have over-adjusted here and given us value with an over wager.
Bruce Marshall
Tampa Bay +115
The wrong team might be favored at the Big A as the Rays look to complete a weekend sweep. THe Halo pitching staff has become alarmingly depleted but another concern in recent days has been the offensive downturn, with only four runs scored over the first two losses in this series. Tampa bay's Matt Andriese has been recalled to start on Sunday. He certainly helped his case in his last outing, striking out 14 in seven shutout innings against the Pirates' Triple-A affiliate, and he also happens to be a righty, and the Rays wanted to avoid using a lefty against the Angels' righty-heavy lineup. Halos starter Nick Tropeano has surrendered four homers over his last two starts.
Brad Wilton
After an Under on Friday night between the teams, Saturday's affair between the Pirates and the Cardinals did slip Over the total.
That makes 5 of 6, and 7 of their last 10 games Over the total for the Bucs, and it also puts the Cards at 4-3-2 Over the price in their last 9 games.
I will look for another Over on Sunday with Gerrit Cole and Michael Wacha on the hill.
Cole has a 3.95 season ERA, and each of his last 3 starts, and 4 of his 5 starts overall this year have landed Over the total.
Wacha does own a 0.90 ERA in his home starts this season, so the runs may be a little harder for the Pirates to plate in this one, but with a total this low, all we need is Pittsburgh to get a couple of runs, and let the host Redbirds do the rest.
Pirates and Cardinals Over the total.
2* PITTSBURGH-ST. LOUIS OVER
Gabriel DuPont
Complimentary play for tonight, as I look to improve on my 51-41 run with free picks: Minnesota at CHICAGO (-1',+105)
The STORYLINE in this game today - In American League Central action, my free play for today is on the Chicago White Sox, on the Run Line, against the struggling Minnesota Twins. who have lost four in a row. Though pitchers are automatically listed when making Run Line wagers, I am insisting you DO NOT worry about who the scheduled starters are. In the event of a scratch, you MUST re-wager the game with the new pitcher(s) who are scheduled. This play will stand no matter who pitches for either team.
The X-FACTOR in making this choice on this game - Now, that being said, it doesn't hurt to mention the pitcher you'll likely have going for you today, that being Chicago's Jose Quintana, who is looking to deliver the White Sox a sweep and sixth straight win over the visiting Twins. Quintana (4-1, 1.40 ERA) has given up 11 runs in 56 2/3 innings in this matchup.
BOTTOM LINE is - The AL Central-leading White Sox (21-10) should have no trouble remaining unbeaten against the last-place Twins (8-22). The White Sox swept an April series in Minnesota. The White Sox are looking for their fourth sweep this season.
2* CHICAGO -1.5
Brandon Lee
Padres +138
San Diego is worth a look here, as we are getting exceptional value on the Padres at home against the Mets and struggling starter Matt Harvey. In 6 starts this season, Harvey is 2-4 with a 4.76 ERA and 1.558 WHIP. He's been even worse on the road, where he's got a 5.51 ERA and 1.652 WHIP in 3 starts. Harvey is simply getting too much respect for what's he's done in the past and not how he's performing right now. On the flip side of this, San Diego's Andrew Cashner has pitched well despite a not so impressive 4.76 ERA. Cashner has only given up more than 3 runs in 1 start. The Padres are also playing well at the moment, as they are 6-3 in their last 9.
Jimmy Boyd
Phillies/Marlins Under 7½
The books have set the bar way too high for today's matchup between the Phillies and Marlins. We have two under the radar starters facing off against one another this afternoon. Philadelphia's Aaron Nola has been one of the best pitchers in the big leagues that doesn't get a lot of love. Nola has a 2.92 ERA and 0.800 WHIP with 44 strikeouts in 40 innings over 6 starts. Nola has been especially tough on the road, where he's got a 0.64 ERA and 0.571 WHIP in 4 starts.
Miami counters with Justin Nicolino, who wasn't on top of his game in his last start, but still only gave up 4 runs in 6 innings. Prior to that he allowed just 2 hits overs 7 1/3 scoreless innings at the Dodgers. It's also important to note that Nicolino faced the Phillies twice last year and had great success in both outings, allowing just 4 runs over 14 2/3 innings.
UNDER is 6-1 in the Phillies last against a left-handed starter, 4-1-1 in their last 6 road games against a team with a winning record and 7-1 in Nola's last 8 starts overall. UNDER is also 6-1 in Marlins last 7 home games against a right-handed starter and 10-2 in their last 12 home games against a team with a winning record.
ASA
Mets / Padres Over 7½
To some it appears that the Mets Matt Harvey may be turning the corner but we disagree. Even though he's allowed a total of just 7 earned runs in his last 3 starts he has been way too hittable. Harvey has given up 22 hits in these three starts even though the three outings didn't even total 16 innings. He's not himself yet this season and that's why he has a 1.56 WHIP. The Padres will have Andrew Cashner toeing the rubber. The big righty has walked 7 in his last two starts and the two outings didn't even total 9 innings. He also has struggled badly against the Mets. Cashner is 0-2 with a 7.88 ERA and a 1.81 WHIP in his 3 career starts against the Mets. With yesterday's 6-3 win, the over is 6-3 in the Mets last 9 games. The over is 11-5 in Mets games this season when New York is off of a win. San Diego has been a solid "over" play at home with an 11-6-1 mark so far this season.
Bob Harvey
Cavs vs. Hawks
Play: Cavs -5
The Cleveland Cavaliers look to sweep their way into the Eastern Conference finals when they visit the Atlanta Hawks in Game 4 of their second-round series.
The Cavaliers (64-25, 42-44 ATS) have used a record setting three-point shooting display to take a 3-0 series lead. They drained 21 three’s on Friday, four shy of their historic performance in Game 2. Channing Frye knocked down seven 3-pointers and scored 27 points in Friday's 121-108 victory, which marked the Cavaliers' 11th consecutive postseason win over the Hawks. Cleveland has now made 61 treys in the series -- the most through three games of any playoff set in NBA history.
The Hawks (52-39, 45-45 ATS) played better on offense in Friday’s loss with Al Horford scored 24 points on 11-of-15 shooting while Kyle Korver came off the bench to score 18. Still it appears Atlanta is overmatched and it would be a pretty big surprise if they aren’t dispatched easily tonight.
The Cavs are 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings in Atlanta and 7-0 ATS in the last seven meetings overall. The favorite is 4-0 ATS in the last four series meetings. Cleveland is also 4-0 vs. the number in its last four conference semi-final games
The OVER is 6-2 in the last eight meetings and 4-1 in the Cavaliers last five meetings. The UNDER is 8-3 in the Hawks last 11 overall and 8-3 to the low side in the past 11 against the Eastern Conference.
John Ryan
Red Sox vs. Yankees
Play: Red Sox +104
Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 68-36 mark good for 65% winners and has made 35 units/unit wagered since 2010. Play against any team (NY YANKEES) averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game on the season, after allowing 2 runs or less 4 straight games. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Boston is a solid 25-9 (+17.4 Units) against the money line after a loss by 4 runs or more over the last 2 seasons.
Fundamental Discussion Points Boston starters knuckle baller Steven Wright, who has put up some very impressive numbers despite some control issues. The knuckler can vary between 70 and 80 MPH and can move a ton. He is different than other past knuckleballers in that he has a FB that can come in at 86+ MPH. That pitch looks like 96 MPH to the batter when looking for a fluttering knuckleball. That FB has heavy sinking motion too that generates a ton of easy GB outs. The knuckle has generated 24.6% whiffs, 44% GB ball in play (BIP), 22% line drive, 27% foul ball, and just 6% pop ups.
SPORTS WAGERS
Los Angeles/TORONTO Over 9
See our write-up on the Dodgers/Jays game today for more info regarding this choice.
Los Angeles +160 over TORONTO
Ross Stripling got off to a nifty start with a 2.65 ERA and 1.06 WHIP after three starts but a deeper look told us we shouldn't buy into it. Save for a groundball tilt, his base skills have not been good and his 8% swing and miss rate and 60% first pitch strike rate don't give hope for a command surge. Stripling’s 0.3% hr/9 rate is also in for a correction and that correction could come here at this unforgiving park. Stripling was whacked at San Diego’s Petco Park his last time out and is coming off consecutive shaky starts. The Dodgers pen will get some action today, which has been shaky too with an ERA of 4.15 so far.
Believe in Marco Estrada if you like. We have heard it all and couldn’t give a hoot about his surface stats. Estrada keeps coming up roses start after start and in fact, he has yielded just four earned runs over three home starts this season. However, we have seen pitchers get lucky for an extended period of time before and we’ll see it again. That’s what happening to Marco Estrada. Of the 30 pitchers starting today, Estrada’s groundball rate of 34% is the second lowest rated of the group, ahead of only Justin Verlander. In other words, Estrada is an extreme fly-ball pitcher with a hr/f rate of 0.6%. That doesn’t jive. When a pitcher is giving up that many fly-balls, many of them will leave the park but Estrada has been dodging bullets all season. Incidentally, Verlander’s hr/f rate is 14% with almost the same fly-ball rate as Estrada. Estrada somehow managed to post a career-best ERA last season despite the worst skills of his career. He also had the second-largest gap between xERA and ERA among all starters in 2015 and that is continuing this season, as his ERA/xERA split is 2.64/4.54. With 87 MPH heat and extreme fly-ball tilt in a hitter-friendly yard, Estrada may be the most overvalued pitcher in the game. He’s also the luckiest at the moment too.
The problem here is that Estrada can win again. His run support of 5.07 runs per game is one of the highest in MLB since the start of the 2015 season, which is another reason his surface stats have been so good. It’s a lot easier to pitch with a 4-run lead than a one-run lead or deficit. The Jays absolutely have a chance to light up Stripling but Estrada is not good enough to be priced in this range. Therefore, we’ll play this game two ways just in case the Dodgers score five or more and lose. If the Dodgers score five or more and win, that would be even better.
Arizona -1½ +114 over ATLANTA
Mike Foltynewicz went 4-6 with a 5.71 ERA in 87 innings for the Braves last year. Foltynewicz brings 95 MPH heat but that’s about all be brings at the moment. He missed September of last year to costochondritis or blood clots in his arm. On the field, a heavy line-drive/fly-ball tilt mixed with an elevated hit%, hr/f combined to wreak havoc on his ERA. Foltynewicz’s raw stuff has yet to translate to strikeouts and his xERA of 5.97 further suggests he needs more seasoning. He’s made one start this season and it was the same ‘ol, same ‘ol for Foltynewicz, as the Mets whacked him for eight hits and five runs in 3.2 innings in New York. Dude’s confidence can’t be high. Foltynewicz had a late start this year too and while he has generally pitched well so far at Triple-A Gwinnett, he's still struggling with his control. He walked 10 batters in 15 innings in the minors before being called up. The Braves are going to teach him at this level in hopes he’ll be ready when they are. Foltynewicz’s 46% hard-hit ball rate over his last 10 major-league starts is off the charts.
Patrick Corbin brings a 4.91 ERA into this start with just 23 K’s in 37 innings so his stock is rather low and that makes us buyers here. Corbin has had some rough outings at home, which surprises nobody but the market overlooks that unless one pitches at Coors. Chase Field is almost as hitter-friendly as Coors so we pay little attention to what a starter does there. On the road, Corbin has made three starts and he’s 1-0 with an ERA of 2.50 after allowing five earned runs and just 17 hits in 18 innings. After a 21-month layoff, Corbin’s broad skill base remained intact when he returned last year to throw 85 innings while he threw a bit harder and dialed up his command. Corbin brings an elite 55% groundball rate after six starts into this one and his swing and miss rate is rising too, suggesting an increase in K’s are forthcoming. Right-handed batters gave him trouble in 2015, but he has controlled them better in the past. Corbin spent the offseason working on his change-up, so if it develops into a legit weapon against right-handed batters and he uses it more often (10% in 2013; 6% in 2015 and 13.5% this year) there’s a chance he could even top his 2013 performance. Incidentally, Atlanta ranks last in the majors with a team batting average of .206 against southpaws.
Harry Bondi
PHILADELPHIA -115 over Miami
Tough to go against the white-hot Marlins, who have won 11 of 13 games, but we think it's the right spot to do so and the fact that the Phillies are actually favored here is telling you the oddsmaker is with us in this thinking. The Phillies snapped Miami's five-game winning streak last night and we think that gives them some momentum here today, especially since they are a profitable 8-3 (+9 units) this season when facing winning teams and 9-9 (+4.8 units) on the road. Let's play the situation and lay the small chalk on the road.