Free Picks for Thursday, April 20th, 2017 from some of the nations best and worst handicappers
DAVE COKIN
SPURS AT GRIZZLIES
PLAY: SPURS -3.5
Memphis has to be thrilled to be back home after getting thumped twice at San Antonio. But I’m not sure it’s going to make a great deal of difference, other than a likelihood the Grizzlies will at least be more competitive.
The eye test is the whole key for me here. The Spurs sure look like they mean business and are taking nothing for granted. I just didn’t see a confident Memphis team in the first two games, and while the home court ought to bolster them to some extent, the Grizzlies just have the look of a team that doesn’t truly believe they can beat this opponent four times. If that’s the case, winning even once could prove difficult.
Memphis almost has to get out of the gate quickly in Game Three. If they play well early, this could be a dogfight and perhaps the Grizzlies get on the board with a win. But if the visitors come out hot, whatever energy the Grizzlies and their fans have will likely wane fairly quickly.
Based on the above, and with the number fairly reasonable, I will give the Spurs minus the points a wager tonight.
Scott Spreitzer
Detroit at Tampa Bay
Play: Detroit +105
Detroit lost a strange game Wednesday night after climbing back from a 5-1 deficit to take the lead and then losing in the ninth when shortstop Jose Iglesias stumbled while trying to turn a double play. The good news for the Tigers is Miguel Cabrera, who started the season slowly, upped his average to .245 with three hits and Nick Castellanos added two triples and Detroit banged out nine hits while coaxing six walks. Daniel Norris comes off six shutout innings at Cleveland with five strikeouts and the Tigers have won his last five road starts and seven of his last nine overall dating to last season. Erasmo Ramirez will start for Tampa Bay in place of injured Jake Odorizzi and he faced Detroit in three games last season and gave up five runs and five hits in 2 2/3 innings.
Jesse Schule
Blue Jackets vs. Penguins
Play: Blue Jackets +1½
The Jackets were out-scored 7-2 in the first two games of this series in Pittsburgh, but they've battled back, playing well in Games 3-4 at home. They lost Game 3 despite opening up an early 3-1 lead, but they hung on in Game 4 winning by a score of 5-4. I never expected this series to be easy for the Penguins, and I expect the Jackets to fight to the bitter end. Here is what I said before the series started: "The Blue Jackets owned the best record in the NHL for a long stretch this season, but after slumping at the end of the year they find themselves playing on the road at Pittsburgh in the first round of the playoffs. The Pens will be a big favorite in Game 1, but history tells us that it might not be an easy matchup for Pittsburgh. The key to winning in the playoffs is often goaltending, and Sergei Bobrovsky led the league in GAA and save percentage, and was third in the NHL in wins. The two teams split the season series 2-2, and six of the last eight meetings between the two teams have been decided by just one goal." After both the last two games in this series were decided by one goal, that makes it eight of the last 12. I'll take Columbus on the puckline at a reasonable price here in Game 5.
Marc Lawrence
Cardinals vs. Brewers
Play: Cardinals -119
Edges - Cardinals: Martinez 5-1 career team starts in Milwaukee, including 5-0 the last five; and 9-2 away career team starts during April… Brewers: Davies: 0-6 career team starts during April; and 2-6 last eight overall home team starts. With the Cardinals 12-5 the last seventeen games in this series, we recommend a 1* play on St. Louis.
Dustin Hawkins
Cardinals vs. Brewers
Play: Cardinals -120
Road favorites like the Cardinals with a money line of -125 or more with a team slugging percentage .400 or worse on the season (NL), ice cold hitting team - batting .225 or worse over their last 10 games. (71-22 over the last 5 seasons.) (76.3%).RH Cardinal pitcher Carlos Martinez is 20-5 against the money line vs. an NL team with a team batting average of .250 or worse over the last 2 seasons.
Ben Burns
Cardinals vs. Brewers
Play: Cardinals -120
Yesterday's loss at Wrigley figures to take a toll on the Brewers. It was a game the Brewers thought they had won. (You probably saw that the Cubs rallied and eventually won via a walk-off home run.) Off that deflating loss, their second straight, the Brewers take on a suddenly surging St. Louis team. The Cards, who had previously lost six of seven, are off a sweep of the Pirates. They won all three games by a 2-1 score.
St. Louis figures to have the edge on the mound once again. Martinez gets the call for the visitors and he's 4-1 (team is 6-2) with a stellar 1.79 ERA in eight starts vs. the Brewers. In his last two starts here at Milwaukee, he's recorded a whopping 24 K's, dominating the Brewer lineup.
Davies has been horrible thus far. In two starts here at Milwaukee, he's 0-2 with a 10.61 ERA and 2.358 WHIP.
The Cards are 26-12 against the Brewers the past few seasons and that includes a 13-5 mark here at Milwaukee. Consider St. Louis.
Rob Vinciletti
Cardinals vs. Brewers
Play: Cardinals -119
The Cardinals are 28-10 here in Milwaukee and fit an 83% League wide system that plays on road favorites off a 1 run home favored win where they scored 2 or less runs vs an opponent off a road dog loss and scored 4 or less like the Brewers. The Cards are 4-1 vs teams with a .400 or less home win percentage. Milwaukee is 0-4 at home if the total is 8 to 8.5 and 1-4 at home with Z. Davies pitching and he has a 8.79 Era this year. The Cardinals are 5-0 here when C. Martinez is on the mound. Look for the Cards to take the opener.
Jim Feist
Blue Jackets vs. Penguins
Play: Blue Jackets +1½
Columbus is a big dog but a strong all around team, #6 in goals scored, #12 on the power play, second in goals allowed and ninth in penalty killing. They come off a 5-4 win to stay alive. The Blue Jackets have a winning road record and are 7-3 in their last 10 after scoring 5 goals or more in their previous game. Pittsburgh is down to its backup goalie, as Marc-Andre Fleury has been pressed into service because of an injury to Matt Murray at the start of the series. The wagering value is on the dog to win the game or lose by one goal.
SCOTT RICKENBACH
Cavaliers vs. Pacers
Play: Under 211
There has been red hot shooting so far in this series so, not surprisingly, both games have found the way over the total. As a result, the posted O/U on this game has been driven up and that is leading to some additional line value here in Game 3. With 2 days of rest in between games we could see some of the hot shooting touch fade here. Also, 8 of the Pacers last 12 home games have stayed under the total. Indiana, down 0-2 in this series, knows they need to play better defense if they're going to get back into this series with a win tonight. The under is 7-1 this season when the Cavs enter a game having played each of their three prior games at home. Even with the first two games of this playoff series going over the total, the under is still 6-3 in Pacers playoff games in recent seasons. Look for the Pacers to do a better job of limiting the Cavaliers weapons here after allowing the Cavs to shoot 54.5% from the field in Cleveland in the first two games of this series.
MIKE LUNDIN
Royals vs. Rangers
Play: Royals -115
The Kansas City Royals have won five of their last six games and tonight's starting pitcher Danny Duffy (2-0, 1.80 ERA) has been excellent his his three starts this season, allowing just four runs on 14 hits through 20 innings of work. The Texas Rangers meanwhile have lost five of their last six and Andrew Cashner (0-1, 5.06 ERA) have up four runs (three earned) through 5 1/3 innings in his lone start so far.
Texas lost 9-1 at Oakland yesterday and is 1-6 in its last seven after scoring two runs or fewer in its previous game. The Royals are 5-1 in Duffy's last six starts when their opponent scores two runs or fewer in their previous game.
BRANDON LEE
Diamondbacks vs. Padres
Play: Under 7½
I cashed in on the UNDER with these two teams in yesterday's 3-0 premium sweep and the UNDER is a strong play once again as the Diamondbacks and Padres wrap up their 3-game series. Anytime you have a game at Petco Park at night with the wind blowing in from left field, you can pretty much blindly bet the under and come out with a profit, especially early in the year when the ball doesn't fly quite as well. Today's starters aren't going to jump out at you as big time arms, but I expect both to pitch well here. Note that both of these offenses are struggling. Arizona averages just 3.8 runs/game against lefties and 3.3 runs/game on the road. San Diego only scored 3.0 runs/game at home and is hitting .192 as a team against left-handed starters.
TONY GEORGE
Seattle at Oakland
Play: Seattle -140
I will not back the A's Valdez who has not made a MLB Start since 2010, against Paxton for Seattle who is red hot in this one, even with Seattle on the road and despite the Mariners struggling out of the gate to start the season., Seattle is loaded with talent gents and have underachieved so far this season, but this is a very winnable road game. Both teams combined for 19 runs on Wednesday Night in their games, however Paxton is undefeated and a ZERO ERA headed into this one.
BRANDON POWELL
Seattle at Oakland
Play: Seattle -141
Paxton has been pitching like one of the best pitchers in the league to start the season. The Mariners are starting to get hot offensively as well. I don't expect much from the As today. The Mariners have won 20 of the last 26 meetins with the As. With the way Paxton is pitching, the hot bats from Seattle, and the success against the As, I expect a dominant showing from the Mariners. Take Seattle -141 confidently tonight.
TEDDY DAVIS
Baltimore vs, Cincinnati
Play: Cincinnati +107
Reds are for sure worth a look here being an underdog. I would say they were extremely unlucky yesterday losing 2-0 despite having 9 hits. The Orioles only had two hits for the entire game.
Feldman has pitched well in his 3 starts for the Reds with a 2.87 ERA. His last two games he has gone 11 innings combined and only gave up 2 earned runs. He also has pitched well against the Orioles with a 5-2 careers record.
Miley for the Orioles is just a guy I'm not a huge fan of. His ERA right now looks good, but that was because he didn't give up any runs @ home. His shaky start was on the road and against the worst team in baseball right now in the Blue Jays.