JIMMY BOYD
Grizzlies +4
As difficult as it is to back Memphis after what transpired in the first two games of the series, I believe it's the right side. The Grizzlies absolutely have to have this game if they want any shot at pulling off the upset. Needless to say we are going to get the best effort Memphis has to offer on their home floor tonight. I know the Spurs are the best coached team in the NBA, but it's only human nature to come out a little relaxed after beating an opponent by 29 and 14 in the first two games of the series.
I also think the rant that Memphis head coach David Fizdale went on about the refs has to help some, especially at home. Less fouls means a more physical Grizzlies defense and I'm willing to bet Kawhi Leondard has a little harder time scoring than he has so far. Leonard went 20 for 28 from the field and 28 of 28 from the free throw line in the first two games. Keep in mind that the Grizzlies won both meetings at home against the Spurs in the regular season and are 12-2 ATS in their last 14 home games off a road loss by 10 or more points.
HANDICAPPERS HUB
Cardinals vs. Brewers
Play: Brewers +110
The Milwaukee Brewers are coming in to this game blowing 2 leads against the Cubs in their last 2 games in which they should have won and I look for them to come out to play tonight. Davies has been off to a rough start but I like him to bounce back tonight against a pretty stagnant Cardinals offense that is averaging 3.2 runs per game this season. I think that the Brewers offense will get to Martinez as he hasn't looked sharp and the Brewers are averaging 4.8 runs per game off right handed starters this year. Look for the Brewers offense to come out hot and build a nice lead with the bullpen holding it and getting a home win tonight!
MATT FARGO
Kansas City at Texas
Play: Texas +107
Kansas City won last night to split its two-game set with the Giants as it got another strong effort from starter Jason Vargas. The Royals went 5-3 on their homestand but they are just 2-4 on the road and come in here as the slight favorite because of the starting pitching matchup. Texas has lost two straight and five of its last six games to fall to 5-10 on the season and that record is also being taken into consideration with the line. The recent struggles have come on the road and the Rangers have won two of their last three at home and going back, they are 4-1 in their last five home games following a road trip of seven or more days. Danny Duffy gets the ball for Kansas City and he is off to a solid start with three quality outings in his three starts but this is not the ballpark to keep strong pitching numbers going. For Duffy, he has an 8.38 ERA and 1.76 WHIP in two career starts at Globe Life Park in Arlington. The Rangers counter with Andrew Cashner who is in his first season with Texas and his first start was not great but it was not awful either as he allowed three earned runs in 5.1 innings at Seattle so he was two outs away from a quality outing. While this is his first season at Globe Life Park in Arlington, he has been known for a pitcher that pitches exceptional at home as his career ERA is over two runs less than it is on the road and most of those took place at hitter friendly Chase Field in Arizona.
CHASE DIAMOND
Rangers vs. Canadiens
Play: Canadiens -145
Big Hockey game for us and one of my premium plays I am giving away free. Rangers come into Montreal tied at 2 games a piece but I love the Canadians in this game this crowd will be fired up and Montreal seems to have the Rangers number winning 7 of the last 10 SU. Public seems to be backing the road Rangers at plus money but not us as I think this will be an easy win.
ANDREW GOLD
Royals vs. Rangers
Play: Royals -115
Rangers just aren't the same team this year. They were destroyed in game 3 against the A's yesterday afternoon and are now facing a red hot Royals team playing with a ton of confidence.
The Royals have won 5 of 6 while the Rangers have lost 5 of 6. Duffy is a perfect 2-0 on the season in three starts with a 3-0 on the season with a 1.80 ERA.
Rangers counter with Cashner who is just making his 2nd start of the season. He wasn't very sharp in his debut against the Mariners.
MIKE ANTHONY
Cleveland vs. Indiana
Play: Indiana +2.5
Indiana's Paul George has the left hand, the right hand, he has some good back to the basket game down in the box. The 6 year veteran forward has been spot on, and I expect him to do what he can do, to show the Cavs that his team has some talent here. I really like the game of George. Indiana showed everyone they can play with the Cavs. Cleveland struggles stopping the ball and in particular from the Pacers. Cleveland haven't been nearly aggressive enough with their offensive rebounding and they just cannot get the much needed stops when needed to, to stop other teams from getting into a rhythm. Cleveland has not been the team many thought they would be, the Cavs need to wake up fast. Indiana gets game 3 here at home outright.
Will Rogers
Washington at Atlanta
Pick: Washington
The set-up: Atlanta's Freddie Freeman hit his sixth HR of the season in Atlanta's 14-4 loss last night against the Nats and is 8-for-9 with three HRs over his last three games to raise his average to a major league-leading .440. However, Washington's Bryce Harper is just as hot, as he belted two HRs (including a grand slam) and drove in five runs on Wednesday and is 9-for-12 with four HRs and 10 RBI over his last three contests. Ryan Zimmerman also slugged a grand slam as the Nationals racked up 20 hits while winning their third straight contest and sixth in eight games. The Braves have lost the first two games of this home series with Washington (fell 3-1 on Tuesday), after they had won their first four games (all against the Padres) at their recently opened SunTrust Park.
The pitching matchup: Stephen Strasburg (1-0 & 3.00 ERA) will get teh nod for the Nats as they go for a series sweep against Atlanta's R.A. Dickey (1-1 & 3.86 ERA). Strasburg won his first start of the season before failing to record a decision in back-to-back outings against Philadelphia. Strasburg has experienced mixed results against the Braves in his career, going 8-8 record and 3.85 ERA in 23 career starts (nats are 11-12). Dickey is in his first year with Atlanta and defeated San Diego in his last outing, when he allowed two runs (both on solo HRs) and seven hits over six innings. The 42-year-old is 4-7 with a 3.68 ERA in 16 career appearances (14 starts / teams are 5-9) against the Nationals but has faced them just once (a loss in 2015) over the last four-plus seasons.
The pick: While Strasburg has a so-so record in his career against the Braves, he was was 8-1 with a 3.00 ERA in 10 road starts last season, including a victory in his final outing at Turner Field, Atlanta's former ballpark. Considering that the Nationals are 30-9 against the Braves since the start of the 2015 season, why wouldn't Washington complete the sweep?.
Larry Ness
Seattle vs. Oakland
Pick: Seattle
The Mariners are 7-9 as they head to Oakland to open a four-game series with the 7-8 A's Thursday night. Both teams produced a season-high in runs in wins on Wednesday, Seattle taking down the Marlins 10-5, while the A's beat the Rangers 9-1. Oakland's Khris Davis, who hit a career-high 42 HRs in 2016, hit his 7th HR of 2017, tying him for the MLB lead.
The pitching matchup will feature Seattle's James Paxton, off to a 2-0 with an 0.00 ERA up against Cesar Valdez, who Valdez is appearing in a big-league game for the first time since June 10, 2010 when he was a member of the Arizona Diamondbacks. Valdez was hardly much of a pitcher back in 2010, going 1-2 with a 7.65 ERA and 1.95 WHIP in nine appearances (two starts). He was signed by Oakland as a minor-league free agent last November and has gone 1-0 with a 2.70 ERA at Triple-A Nashville. He's been called up to start for the injured Kendall Graveman.
Getting back to Paxton, he's been long been considered as a future standout by the Mariners but injuries have curtailed his progress. In fact, last season's 121 innings are his most since he reached the majors in 2013. He was just 6-7 with a 3.79 ERA in 20 starts last season (Mariners were 7-13 in his starts, going minus-$898 against the moneyline) but he had nearly five times as many strikeouts (117) as walks (24).
Is 2017 going to be his breakout year? He's opened 2-0 without allowing a run over 15 innings with a 17 strikeouts and just three walks. What's more, he is 2-0 with a 2.75 ERA in three career starts against the Athletics (Seattle is 3-0), and how does one ignore that Seattle has won 12 of its past 13 games in Oakland. Take the Mariners.
Dave Essler
Cardinals / Brewers Over 8
I feel compelled to explain here - first of all Martinez threw 118 pitches in five (or so) innings against teh Yankees the other night and that's almost fade material right there (which is why I like the Brewers here, actually), especially against a team that's seen him a fair amount. And of course there is that vaunted (pun intended) St. Louis bullpen. We're getting the # because St. Louis hasn't been hitting or giving up runs, three straight 2-1 games. Well, the faced the Pirates who aren't hitting and had the Marte thing, so keeping them down is one thing, slowing down Milwaukee on the road might be totally another. That's especially true in what's typically an "over" venue. So, there's that. Then there is Zach Davies, who in three games has a WHIP of 2.02 and has been giving up a ton of fly ball outs that this park might not hold. And there's the Brewers pen which in the last week has been getting crucified and blown three saves. So, as square/uncool/obvious as this might be, I can't help but not try to out-think the room here. Either team is capable of putting up most of these runs by themselves.
Wunderdog
Toronto @ Milwaukee
Pick: Under 196
The Milwaukee Bucks needed to come away with a split in the first two games in Toronto, and accomplished that goal. Toronto knows they have to come into Game 3 with the home crowd now behind the Bucks, and match the intensity early in the game. They need to not let the crowd dictate and provide energy for the home team. Toronto has a long history of playoff problems, and a lot of that rests on their guards DeMar DeRozen, and Kyle Lowry. They both have shot less than 40% from the field in their career playoff games, and well below their averages from deep. As a result, the defense is going to have to carry the mail for them in this one. Milwaukee has defended very well in this series, and should get a boost by finally playing in front of the home crowd. These teams have a long history of low-scoring games in Milwaukee, as 9 of the last 12 here have played UNDER the total, and coming up short by an average of 7.25 points per game.
Jason Sharpe
Detroit (+105) over Tampa Bay
Detroit Tigers starter Daniel Norris is one of the more underrated starting pitchers in all of MLB. Norris leads the league in consecutive starts, allowing 3 earned runs or less as he comes into this one with 21 straight starts and counting. Tampa Bay is scheduled to start Erasmo Ramirez in this one. Ramirez has been in the bullpen of late and makes just his 2nd start in his last 70 appearances here in this game. Going with Ramirez means the Rays will likely have to turn to their bullpen early and often in this contest and that's been bad news for Tampa Bay as they come in ranked 13th in the 15 team American League in FIP and 14th in Siera. This was a huge issue last year for the Rays also as they were dead last in the A.L. in bullpen FIP. Take Detroit in this game.
Vernon Croy
Boston (-175) over Toronto
This pick falls into one of my top MLB systems and the Jays have hit just .186 lifetime as a team against Sale with and OBP of just .250. Opponents have hit just .149 against Sale this season, and he has allowed just 11 hits over 21.2 innings of work while striking out 29 batters and walking just 5. Sale is 4-0 against the Jays the last 3 seasons with an ERA of just 1.97 and the Jays hitting just .176 against him, and I expect another solid start from him Thursday. Estrada is just 9-12 at Rogers Centre the last 3 season and although he is coming off a gem against the Orioles, I do expect him to struggle in this game after throwing 109 pitches in that start. Play Boston ML with confidence.
Allen Eastman
Cleveland at Indiana
Play: Over 210.5
Each of the first two games went 'over' the total. I think this one will as well. Cleveland is not a very good defensive team. They were No. 20 in the regular season in scoring defense and Indiana hasn't had many problems scoring in games 1 and 2. I think if the Pacers are going to be able to get over the hump and get a win in this series it will be in this game. And to do that they will have to outscore the Cavs. Cleveland is 8-2 against the total in its last 10 games and Indiana is 7-3 against the total in its last 10. I see another high-scoring game and this one will go 'over'.
Mike Rose
St. Louis Cardinals at Milwaukee Brewers
Play: St. Louis Cardinals -113
Though the Brew Crew spit the bit late in a pair of losses to the Cubs, they return home with their heads held high after putting forth a 6-3 record on their nine-game road trip. Their swinging some incredibly potent sticks right now, while the Cardinals most definitely are not having scored 3 runs or less in each of their L/6 games. However, I’m just not buying what linemakers are trying to sell here. Regardless of Carlos Martinez walking a career-high 8 batters in his last turn, he’s far and away the better starting pitching option in this matchup. Davies is yet to rekindle his magic from last season in serving up 21 hits ( 2 HR ) and 18 ER through his first three starts, while failing to reach the 6th inning in each. That puts loads of pressure on an overworked Milwaukee bullpen should it be called upon early once again. Look for Milwaukee’s pitching to be the elixir that gets St. Louis’s offense humming.
Oskeim Sports
Baltimore Orioles at Cincinnati Reds
Play: Baltimore Orioles -
Baltimore southpaw Wade Miley is off to a strong start to the 2017 campaign, posting a 2.45 ERA and 1.18 WHIP in his first two starts, a span covering 11 innings. Miley has garnered a surprising 28.3% strikeout rate after finishing with a 19.3% strikeout rate last season.
However, the 30-year-old has struggled mightily with his control in his first two outings, issuing seven walks (5.73 BB/9). Miley owns a career 2.79 BB/9 rate so I expect his command and control to improve as the season progresses.
Cincinnati's offense is averaging just 3.9 runs per game at home (.297 OBP; 706 OPS) and 4.0 runs per game versus left-handed starters (.250 OBP; .650 OPS). Let's also note that the Reds are batting .236 with a .294 on base percentage at night and .203 with a .311 on base percentage versus American League opponents.
Miley is supported by a solid Baltimore bullpen that owns a 3.65 ERA this season, including a 2.10 ERA at night, a 1.35 ERA in interleague play and a 2.86 ERA in its last seven games. My concern focuses on the fact that Baltimore relievers have issued 21 walks and allowed 51 hits in 44 1/3 innings of work in 2017.
Cincinnati sends veteran right-hander Scott Feldman to the mound, who is coming off a brilliant outing against the Cardinals where he threw six shutout innings. While Feldman's 2.87 ERA looks appealing, his underlying peripherals aren't nearly as promising: 4.20 FIP, 4.26 xFIP, 4.32 SIERA and a 4.60 BB/9 rate.
The 34-year-old has also benefitted from an unsustainable 89.1% strand rate, and his ground ball rate has dropped from 49.8% in 2016 to 33.3% this season. Feldman's line drive rate is also up from previous seasons and his career 4.38 ERA and 5.6 K/9 rate more accurately project his future results.
From a technical standpoint, Baltimore is a profitable 22-8 in its last thirty interleague games, 8-2 in its last ten interleague road games versus right-handed starters, 12-4 in its last 16 games versus .501 or greater National League foes and 5-1 in its last six meetings with the Reds.
The Orioles are 7-0 in umpire Mike Estabrook's last seven games behind home plate, whereas Cincinnati is 1-5 in Estabrook's last six games calling balls and strikes. With the Reds standing at 16-38 in interleague play, including 5-12 at home and 3-11 versus teams with a winning record.