Jack Brayman
Tonight I'm in baseball, and I'm playing the Under in the Washington Nationals-Atlanta Braves contest.
Since every MLB wager on a run line or total auto-lists pitchers, I want you to be sure the two pitchers on your ticket, when making this play, are Stephen Strasburg and R.A. Dickey. If they are not the pitchers of record when making your play, disregard this play.
Let's start with Washington's fire-throwing Strasburg, who is off to a hot start this season. The hard-throwing right-hander has completed seven innings and allowed three runs or fewer in all three of his starts in 2017. And this shouldn't come as a shocker, as he is 12-8 with a 3.04 ERA in 30 starts in March or April over his near 7-year career. He'll be at his best once again tonight.
Then there's Dickey, who is in after inundating the San Diego Padres with his notorious knuckleball. The right-handed junkballer fired knucklers on 92.1 percent of the pitches he threw during Saturday's win over the Friars. It marked his second-highest knuckleball percentage since the start of 2016. Dickey will occasionally mix in a curveball, but it the knuckle is what keeps hitters guessing.
I'll count on both hurlers to steal the show and keep the runs to a minimum.
4* Nationals-Braves Under
JOHN MARTIN
Spurs/Grizzlies Under 187
Points always seem hard to come by when the Spurs and Grizzlies get together because they are so familiar with one another with all of their playoff battles through the years. Seven of the last 10 meetings have seen 187 or fewer combined points. The UNDER is 8-3 in the last 11 meetings. The UNDER is 9-2 in Spurs last 11 games following a straight up win of more than 10 points.
RAY MONOHAN
Raptors +1.5
This play just missed out on our premium card. The Raptorwill look to take a 2-1 series lead when they take on the Bucks in Milwaukee on Thursday night. At this kind of spread there is value. After they couldn't seem to make a shot in game one they really picked up the pace in game two.
DeRozan and Lowry both shot 50 percent from the field and paced the team to victory. I expect much of the same in game three. The Bucks prefer a lower paced game and the Raptors will have success pushing the pace in this one, which will be the difference in this game. Some trends to note. Raptors are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 road games. Bucks are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games. Raptors are 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings in Milwaukee.
KEVIN THOMAS
Royals vs. Rangers
Play: Rangers
Not much respect for Andrew Cashner at home. Yes I know he had a bad inning but overall he looked pretty good and should look better and more confident in this home start. The Royals go with Danny Duffy who has somehow turned into an ace for the Royals at 2-0 with a 1.80 ERA I am not buying it. Royals bullpen is awful. With that in mind we will make a play with the Rangers at home here and grade it out at a 9* Rangers are desperate not to be swept at home
JACK JONES
Raptors vs. Bucks
Play: Bucks -1½
I've been very impressed with the Milwaukee Bucks in this series. After upsetting the Raptors 97-83 in Game 1, the Bucks came back and took the Raptors down to the wire in a 100-106 loss in Game 2. They easily could have settled for getting home-court advantage with that Game 1 win, but instead laid it all on the line again in Game 2.
The Bucks have given the Raptors fits with their length. Giannis Antetokounmpo is averaging 26.0 points and 11.5 rebounds, Greg Monroe (16.0 ppg, 9.5 rpg) has really stepped it up, and Malcolm Brogdon (11.5 ppg, 5.0 rpg) isn't playing like a rookie.
Now the Bucks come home and want to keep the advantage they earned in that Game 1 victory. The Raptors are 2-11 ATS in the first round of the playoffs over the last three seasons. The Bucks are 18-7 ATS in their last 25 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days.
SPORTS WAGERS
NASHVILLE -½ +144 over Chicago
Regulation only. It’s hard to imagine the Blackhawks getting swept at any time, let alone in the first round by Nashville but that’s what they’re facing here. The Blackhawks downfall has been sharper and more surprising than any other result thus far, including Toronto making life difficult for Washington. A 3-0 series deficit says it all, but the fact that Patrick Kane, Jonathan Toews and the rest of Chicago's seasoned postseason heroes are being completely outworked to the puck is even more concerning. Nashville's five-man units are just getting more done than the Blackhawks and there isn’t any indications that will change in Game 4. The great Blackhawks’ teams over the past seven years have been on the verge of elimination before but not down 3-0 and not after being so thoroughly outplayed. This is a group that has played a ton of hockey over that time and may simply be getting beat by a hungrier and more talented squad. We suggested that Chicago was flawed before the series began and the Preds are exposing all of them. The Western Conference's No. 1 team isn't playing with a lot of life
Nashville has been better in every area in this series. The Blackhawks have been chasing the Preds around for three games now and that takes a toll. Nashville is hitting harder, they’re skating quicker, they’re hungrier, they’re creating more scoring chances by a wide margin and they have outscored the Blackhawks 9-2. The Preds now have Chicago by the throat for the first time ever so this now becomes a defining moment for them where they’ll either bring the hammer down and finish this team off or they’ll give the Blackhawks hope. We’re counting on the former because Chicago is playing like they NEED a long summer break after playing their hearts out for seven years.
Most importantly is the value. Chicago is priced here like they have been competitive when in fact, they have not been other than in Game 1. When you bet Chicago today, you are betting a repuation and not the product. It may work out but if Chicago was doing to Nashville what Nashville is doing to Chicago, the Blackhawks would be a massive price. Nashville is a GREAT price and therefore must be played.
SPORTS WAGERS
SAN DIEGO +102 over Arizona
This one is not about backing Clayton Richard. Richard (LHP) will attempt to get back on track after allowing eight earned runs over 12 innings in his last two starts. Richard was respectable against Arizona last season, allowing six earned runs in 16.2 innings over two starts. Whether Richard has a decent start here or not remains to be seen but Patrick Corbin is not good enough to be road chalk and neither are the D-Backs. The Diamondbacks have been awful on the road, producing only a .590 OPS in their first nine road games to go along with a BA of .207.
Patrick Corbin (LHP) has produced two disasters in his first three starts, although he's allowed only five earned runs in 16 innings. His low K-rate and command with only 7 strikeouts to 7 walks, reveals the risk when he takes the mound. He struggled at Petco last season, as he allowed six earned runs in 11 innings over three relief appearances and one start. Corbin does nothing well. He gets hit hard, he’s constantly behind in the count and he’s simply a weak option when asked to spot a price on the road. San Diego is 3-2 at home and have defeated and scored runs on much better starters than the one they’ll face here.
Paul Bovi
Cavaliers at Pacers
Play: Pacers +2.5
Belief here is that the Pacers have a Game in them vs a team that has not played solid defense during these playoffs. Pacers won a game by 10 over the Cavs in the regular season at home while in the other contest played at Conseco they were victimized by Kyle Korver's 8 of 9 from beyond the arc in giving up 132. Expect a better defensive effort from Indy
Brad Wilton
Indiana heads back home down 0-2 in their opening round series against the defending NBA champion Cleveland Cavaliers, and while the Pacers have been close - really close in Game One - the fact remains Indiana has not been able to break through with the outright win against the Cavs in any of their last 5 meetings, and the Pacers are just 2-8 straight up the past 10 series meetings.
True, Indy is 6-1-1 against the spread the past 8 meetings versus Cleveland at Bankers Life Field House, but for the most part the Pacers were getting a few more points than they are getting tonight from the oddsmakers.
Granted, something appears amiss with the Cavs this season, and if this price were a little more tilted towards the home dog...say Indiana +5 points or so, I might be inclined to back the host Pacers, but at +2 1/2 points or so, that is just not enough to get me ecstatic about backing the # 7 seed tonight.
The Cavaliers did lead Game One by 10 points in the 4th quarter of play, and in Game Two they lead by 18 points after 3 quarters of action. The bottom line is, it has been an uphill climb for the Pacers in these games, and getting just over a basket is not enough to sway me off of Cleveland, even on the road.
Take the Cavs.
4* CLEVELAND
Chris Jordan
I lost last night's freebie on the St. Louis Blues, as they couldn't do a thing against the Minnesota Wild. Tonight I bounce back with a play on the Nashville Predators, over the Chicago Blackhawks.
The Blackhawks were supposed to be the favorite to win the Western Conference. Now they're on the brink of being eliminated. Trailing 3-0 to Nashville, this will be the final game for Chicago this season. The Blackhawks are about to meet the broom.
The Blackhawks ranked ninth in the regular season with 240 goals. In the playoffs, they rank dead last with just two goals. The next lowest is five, by the Edmonton Oilers and Minnesota Wild.
Two goals in the postseason. That's not going to cut it.
Nashville is better suited to wrap things up tonight, rather than allow the series to go back to Chicago, where the 'Hawks would have momentum to cut the deficit to 3-2.
That's not the move. Nashville wins tonight, so lay the cheap price.
2* PREDATORS
Eric Schroeder
My free play for Thursday night is the San Jose Sharks over the Edmonton Oilers.
If any of you watched Game 4 of this series, you know the defending Western Conference champs looked a lot like the San Jose Sharks who went to the Stanley Cup Final last season. A 7-0 thrashing of the Edmonton Oilers redefined this series, and clearly thrust the Sharks into the forefront.
That Game 4 win was a huge boost, as the Sharks had scored just three goals after three games in the series - including none in Games 2 and 3.
Now with the series tied, the Sharks own the mental edge and have all the momentum in the world to steal this one on the road. The momentum is in their favor, and there is no doubt the motivation to return to San Jose with a 3-2 lead is on their minds.
I'll take the road pup.
3* SHARKS
Scott Rickenbach
Cavaliers vs. Pacers
Play: Under 211
There has been red hot shooting so far in this series so, not surprisingly, both games have found the way over the total. As a result, the posted O/U on this game has been driven up and that is leading to some additional line value here in Game 3. With 2 days of rest in between games we could see some of the hot shooting touch fade here. Also, 8 of the Pacers last 12 home games have stayed under the total. Indiana, down 0-2 in this series, knows they need to play better defense if they're going to get back into this series with a win tonight. The under is 7-1 this season when the Cavs enter a game having played each of their three prior games at home. Even with the first two games of this playoff series going over the total, the under is still 6-3 in Pacers playoff games in recent seasons. Look for the Pacers to do a better job of limiting the Cavaliers weapons here after allowing the Cavs to shoot 54.5% from the field in Cleveland in the first two games of this series.
San Jose vs. Edmonton
Play: San Jose +115
Many bettors are likely to use the traditional “zig zag theory” here and back the Oilers on home ice off of a shutout loss. However, in this very series that theory did not work out so well as the Sharks were shutout on the road at Edmonton and then proceeded to get shutout again in the next game at home versus the Oilers. Now, with Edmonton off of an ugly 7-0 road loss, many will look to back the Oilers at home looking for a response. Similar to Game 3 in this series, I expect the theory to fail. San Jose beat Edmonton so badly that it is the type of loss that makes a team question itself and start to second-guess itself. This is especially true when the team is a rather young team and inexperienced in terms of playoff experience. That said, this is a tough spot for Edmonton. The Oilers don’t have a history of responding off of poor games like Tuesday’s was. In fact, they’ve lost 10 of 16 this season and 44 of 67 the past 3 seasons when they are off of a game where they were held to 1 goal or less. The Sharks have the edge in terms of “playing in crunch time” and have won 16 of their last 24 games in April. Also, San Jose has gone 4-1 the last 5 times they were tied in a playoff series (lone loss was earlier in this series) and I look for the Sharks to improve to 3-1 this season when off of a shutout win in their prior game.
DAVE PRICE
Memphis Grizzlies +4
David Fizdale earned a $30,000 fine for his comments on the officiating after Game 2. He had some great points as the calls were clearly on the Spurs' side when you consider how many more shot attempts the Grizzlies had in the paint compared to the Spurs. San Antonio made 31-of-32 free throws for the game, while Memphis was only 13-of-15. Look for the Grizzlies to get the calls to go their way in Game 3 at home tonight. Home-court advantage has been huge in this series this season as the home team is a perfect 6-0 straight up in 6 meetings. Memphis is 12-2 ATS in home games off a road loss by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
TONY STOFFO
Cardinals vs. Brewers
Play: Brewers +111
The Cardinals are 1-6 in their last 7 road games and 2-5 in their last 7 road games vs. a right-handed starter. The Brewers are 5-1 in their last 6 games vs. a right-handed starter and 6-2 in Davies' last 8 home starts vs. a team with a losing record.
Bob Balfe
DBacks -115
The Padres don’t have a great offense this year so will have to win games like last night where the won by the tune of a 1-0 final. Arizona is a pretty hot hitting team so all it takes is one big inning and San Diego will not be able to recover. I just don’t like the Padres bats right now.