DAVE COKIN
TWINS AT BREWERS
PLAY: TWINS +105
This is one of those games where there’s nothing overwhelming to indicate one side over the other, but a series of check marks favor the same side, which also happens to currently be the underdog side.
It’s not a landslide by any means, but my numbers for Ricky Nolasco are superior to what I’m showing for Taylor Jungmann. So there’s one check for the Twins.
The Minnesota bullpen took a hit when Glen Perkins hit the DL, and it’s not like they’ve got anyone lights out in that relief corps as it’s currently comprised. But as with the starting pitchers, I give the bullpen pitching edge to the Twins as well.
I put more stock into pitching than offense, so while the Brew Crew owns the better batting stats, it’s not enough to offset the mound numbers.
There could be a nice bonus in this game. I obviously don’t have any lineup info as I’m writing this. But with this being a day game off a night game, I certainly would not be surprised if Ryan Braun and/or Jonathan Lucroy are absent from the Milwaukee starting nine today. If that’s the case, an even stronger case can be made for the visitors.
Bottom line is that I will usually take dogs I make the favorite unless there are some mitigating circumstances that result in a red flag. There is one here, in that the Twins are now 0-7 on the road, but I’ve got them at -108 on my model. That’s not a whopper of a difference off the actual line, but it fits the parameters I look for, and I’ll therefore back the Twins in this game.
Sleepyj
Warriors / Rockets Over 215.5
I could see this one getting over the total now that this series has shifted to Houston..Rockets will look to run and gun at home even though that is the wrong thing to do against GS...Playing defense doesn't apply with the Rockets and it appears James Harden could careless to even stop anyone...This could turn into a fast paced 3 pt contest here...Curry is going to sit from what I hear....That will hurt the chances of GS for sure, but the Rockets cant stop a nose bleed...GS will be just fine trading baskets..It will take a cold qtr of play to keep this one under the total...These teams could score 75pts in a single qtr and I'm not going up against that here...Harden will prob make twenty trips to the free throw line and if Houston is down a few pts or 20 they will foul until the buzzer sounds...This might be a free throw shooting contest as well...Dwight Howord was rather upset he didn't get many touches last game down low...I think he gets more involved and it's a dump and dunk night for him rather quickly...Only way I can look is over.
Rob Vinciletti
Penguins vs. Rangers
Play: Over 5
In the series this year at least 5 goals were scored in 5 of the 6 games. These two played a low scoring game in game 3 and the scoring should pick up here tonight as the Penguins have played over in 6 of 7 when leading in a series and 5 of their last 7 overall. The Rangers have gone over in 4 of the last 5 12 of 17 off a loss by 2 or more goals. The Rangers have also played over in 10 of 13 with home loss revenge. Both teams played well on defense ion game 4 but we look for more scoring here tonight.
Scott Spreitzer
Angels vs. White Sox
Play: Over 9
John Danks is by far the weak spot in the White Sox otherwise solid rotation. Danks has allowed 10 earned runs and 18 base runners in two starts this season, spanning 11 1/3 IP. Chicago has dropped five straight Danks' starts going back to last season and eight of his last 10 starts, overall. He's been tagged with a 5.06 ERA in his last 12 outings. He's certainly not at his best in day action, posting a 5.10 ERA, 1.49 WHIP, .299 BAA in his last 27 afternoon trips to the bump. Jered Weaver shocked many with a strong season debut against Texas on April 10. But Weaver struggled quite a bit in his last start, a roadie in Minnesota, allowing four earned runs and 10 base runners in 4 1/3 IP. The Angel righty has a big-time home/road dichotomy over the last three seasons, posting a 2.68 ERA & 1.09 WHIP in 41 home starts. But he's been smacked for a 4.96 ERA & 1.31 WHIP in 43 road starts. And he's backed by a team with a bottom-third bullpen ERA. The Angels are on a 10-3 Over run when Weaver starts on the road against teams with a winning record, while White Sox games are 5-1-1 to the Over in Danks' last seven starts, overall.
Marc Lawrence
Pirates vs. Padres
Play: Pirates -141
Edges - Pirates: Gerrit Cole 2-0 with 1.53 ERA last two team starts in this series; and 4-2 last six team starts in April. Padres: James Shields 0-5 last five team starts during April. With that look for the Pirates to improve to 10-5 the last fifteen games in this series tonight. We recommend a 1* play on Pittsburgh.
Carlo Campanella
Raptors vs. Pacers
Play: Pacers +1½
Pacers host Toronto for Thursday's Game #3 with this series tied up 1-1 after Indiana stole the first game on the road in Toronto, 100-90. Indiana hosts their first Playoff game of this postseason knowing that they're 26-15 SU at home this year. The Pacers opened the Playoffs on fire, as they head into Thursday on a 7-2 SU & 6-3 ATS winning streak since April 2nd. After stealing Game #1, this is the MOST IMPORTANT game for the Pacers in this series as a win would put them up 2-1 after three game and they would remain home for Saturday's Game #4. With Vegas posting this point spread at almost a "pick'em," we'll back Indiana on their own court as we find them owning a money making 13-5 ATS record at home when hosting a team that they lost to on the road.
Mike Lundin
Minnesota at Milwaukee
Play: Milwaukee -114
This looks like a good spot to back the Milwaukee Brewers as they're gunning for a third consecutive win against the Minnesota Twins. The Brew Crew's bats are heating up and they homered three times in Wednesday's 10-5 home victory against the Twins.
I like their chances of scoring plenty of runs today as well coming up against Ricky Nolasco (0-0, 3.21 ERA) who has an atrocious 7.20 ERA and .328 BAA through nine career starts versus the Brewers.
Milwaukee meanwhile will turn to Taylor Jungmann (0-2, 9.00) who has been smacked around in back-to-back road-starts. He allowed just two runs on three hits through five innings at home in his season debut though and posted a 5-2 record behind a 2.21 ERA in nine starts at Miller Park as a rookie last year.
Brewers are 9-2 in their last 11 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400 and the Twins have dropped seven straight on the road.
Jim Feist
Cubs vs. Reds
Play: Under 7
Chicago is strong defensively in the field, 7-2 under the total on the road against a left-handed starter. The Cubs have their ace going in Jake Arrieta (3-0, 1.23 ERA). Arrieta struck out eight and surrendered five hits and a walk over eight innings in Saturday's 6-2 victory over the Rockies. The reigning NL Cy Young award winner was masterful at Wrigley once again, where he hasn't allowed a run his last 48.2 innings of work. The under is 12-2-4 when Arrieta faces the National League Central. He faces a Cincinnati offense that is #25 in home runs and #19 in on base percentage. The Reds go with young Brandon Finnegan (1-0, 2.04 ERA) who has been tough to hit, with opponents hitting .129 off him (8 hits in 17+ innings, 15 Ks). The Under is 20-9 in Reds last 29 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600.
Bob Harvey
Thunder vs. Mavs
Play: Mavs +9
The Dallas Mavericks look to take a 2-1 series lead when they host the Oklahoma City Thunder.
The third-seeded Thunder (56-28, 38-45 ATS)are still reeling after a stunning 85-84 Game 2 loss in Oklahoma City. The loss came just two days after Kevin Durant and company buried Dallas by 38-points in Game 1.Durant suffered through one of the worst shooting games of his career going 7 of 33 from the field, finishing with 21 points. Russell Westbrook just 8 of 22, finishing with 19 points and 14 rebounds but only six assists.
For the Mavericks (43-41, 46-37 ATS) the Game 2 victory was a good news/bad news scenario. The victory squared the series but Dirk Nowitzki suffered a bruised knee and his status is listed for tonight’s contest is listed as questionable. The Mavs got a lift from veteran guard Raymond Felton who was a huge contributor in Game 2 with 21 points and 11 rebounds.
Oklahoma City is 14-6-1 ATS in the last 21 meetings in Dallas. The Thunder are 5-2 ATS in their last seven overall and 5-2 ATS in their last seven against the Western Conference. Dallas is 9-4 vs. the number vs. the Western Conference and 33-16-2 ATS in its last 51 ATS against the NBA Northwest Division.
The Mavericks are 9-2 to the UNDER in their last 11 overall and 26-9-1 in the high side in last 36 series meetings.
Matt Josephs
Dodgers vs. Braves
Play: Under 6½
The Braves suddenly surging offense should cool off as they get a look at Clayton Kershaw. The southpaw is 3-0 with a 1.54 ERA and a WHIP of 0.908 in eight career starts against Atlanta. Last year he held them to just four hits in seven innings while striking out 10. Erick Aybar (3-21), Freddie Freeman (2-9), Kelly Johnson (3-15) and Drew Stubbs (4-31) all struggle mightily against the ace. Atlanta is hitting .221 in their four games against left-handed pitchers and .201 in day games. Matt Wisler is the opposing starter and he hasn't been terrible for Atlanta. Wisler has a 4.97 ERA, but a WHIP of 1.026 as he tries to keep runners off base. The Dodgers were hitting .225 in their last seven games before Wednesday. With the early start on Thursday, we may not see a complete lineup. I think this one is a low scoring affair with the Braves putting up a goose egg.
Will Rogers
Raptors vs. Pacers
Play: Pacers +1½
The Indiana Pacers have taken the homecourt advantage in the series away from the Raptors with a 100-99 win at Rogers Centre in the series-opener. A 98-87 defeat in Game 2 was pretty expected, but I like the Pacers to take command of the series again with a home win at Bonkers Life Thursday night.
Here are my keys to the game:
1. Situational - The Pacers are a great team to back coming off a loss as they're 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games following a straight up loss. The Raptors on the other hand are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games following a straight up win.
2. Paul George - The Indiana forward has stepped it up and tormented Toronto after putting up just an average of 16.3 points per game over the four regular-season meetings. He's been the dominant scorer in this series by a mile with 61 points spread out over the first two games, 26 points more than the Raptors-best Jonas Valanciunas.
3. X-Factor - Toronto is 1-8 ATS in its last nine Conference Quarterfinals games.
Brandon Shively
Minnesota vs. Milwaukee
Pick: Milwaukee
Taylor Jungmann takes the mound for the Brew Crew. Jungmann is a pitcher we want to look to take at home. The Brewers are 5-1 in his last six home starts dating back to last season, including a 4-3 win this year over the Giants when he was opposed by Samardzija.
The Twins started the season 0-9, then swept the Angels, won game 1 of this series, and now have lost the next two games. The Twins are now 0-7 on the road this season and I look for them to go to 0-8 after this one is over with. A lot of that has to do with Ricky Nolasco who takes the bump for the Twins and he has a career 7.20 ERA against the Brewers in 45 IP.
The Twins are last in the Majors hitting only .148 with runners in scoring position.
The Brewers are 6-3 at home vs. the American League their last nine games dating back to last season. The Twins are 2-7 SU their last nine road games against the National League dating back to last year. Given the fact they haven’t won on the road yet this season and are averaging under 3 runs a game on the road, I look for the Brewers to take this game and to win this series.
Strike Point Sports
Oklahoma City (-8.5) over Dallas
I know that Dallas is coming into this home game off a big upset win over the Thunder in Game 2. The Mavs have stolen home-court advantage in this series, but after this game the Thunder will take it right back. Kevin Durant played terribly in Game 2 and he will bounce back in a big way here. Durant was 7-33 from the floor and 2-11 from the three-point line. Along with that terrible shooting display he turned the ball over seven times. The Thunder as a team shot 33 percent from the floor and 22 percent from the three-point line. All of this will change in Game 3. Look for the Thunder to withstand an early run from the Mavs in front of their home crowd but then to take control as the better team. OKC will grab home-court advantage back in a big way 110-97.
Robert Ferringo
Pittsburgh / San Diego Under 6.5
I think we have two really good pitchers that are due to dominate. Gerrit Cole was awesome in 2015 for the Pirates with a 2.60 ERA and he's been really, really good in his three full Big League seasons. He's off to a bit of a slow start this season and allowed just four hits against a really good Detroit lineup his last time out. The same can be said for James Shields. This guy has been so good for so long and he should dominate here. Two of his three starts this year were quality starts. The one that wasn't was in Coors Field and he gave up just four runs despite getting lit for three home runs. Four straight Shields starts have gone 'under' and the awkward start time here means that the hitters will have to battle the shadows as well as the two aces on the mound. It's all pointing toward a 3-1 game for someone and I see this one going 'under'.
Vernon Croy
Chicago Cubs (-1.5) over Cincinnati
This pick falls into one of my MLB systems and the Cubs are the superior team at this point in the season, with also the superior pitcher on the mound. Arrieta has been lights out so far again this season in pitching at least 7 innings in all 3 of his starts, with an ERA of just 1.23. The Reds have hit just .179 against Arrieta the last 3 seasons, and I expect another great start from him Thursday night. Finnegan lasted just 5 innings in his last start, where he had trouble finding the strike zone. Finnegan has issued 9 walks over his last 2 starts combined, which will be a disaster against this Cubs team who have had the most walks (64) in MLB this season.