Larry Ness
Pittsburgh Pirates at San Diego Padres
Pick: Pittsburgh Pirates
The Pittsburgh Pirates have been ONE-and-DONE the last three seasons, earning a wild card berth all years but losing each time in that winner-take-all one-game format. The NL Central has been one tough division in that span and figures to be so again in 2016. The Cubs have taken the early lead at 11-4 with the Cards and Reds at 8-7 and the Brewers and Pirates at 7-8. Pittsburgh looks to avoid a three-game sweep by the San Diego Padres on Thursday night, sending Gerrit Cole to the mound, who is hoping to earn his first win in his third attempt.
Cole arrived in 2013 and has been a big money-maker. The Pirates were 23-9 in his 32 starts last season, as he was third-best among all starters at plus-$1,043. He entered the 2016 season with the Pirates having gone 50-23 in all of his starts, for a moneyline mark of plus-$2,107. However, Cole has dropped his first two starts of the season, losing to the Cincinnati Reds and Detroit Tigers (4.22 ERA) but note he has yet to receive a SINGLE run of support in those starts! He has fared well against San Diego in his young career, with 23 strikeouts in 17.2 innings over three starts, going 2-1 with a 2.04 ERA.
The Padres counter with James Shields, who went 13-7 with a 3.91 ERA in 2015, his first season with San Diego. He owns a huge reputation (“Big Game James”) but he doesn’t own a SINGLE “big game win” plus has won as many as 15 games just twice in a 10-year career (this is his 11th). His lifetime record, including an 0-2 (4.05 ERA) record to open to the 2016 season is 127-99 (3.74 ERA). The Padres have lost each of his three 2016 starts but like Cole, he hasn’t gotten much support (a total of just FIVE runs in his three outings). Shields faced the Pirates for the first time last year, posting a 1.38 ERA in two no-decisions (SD was 1-1).
The Pirates were excellent against right-handers last year (78-48) and Cole has won five straight road outings against NL West opponents with a 2.14 ERA. I’ll back Cole over “Mr Big Game.”
Brian Edwards
Thunder at Mavs
Play: Mavs
Dallas received a major boost in confidence by stealing Game 2 at Oklahoma City with a great defensive effort and Raymond Felton's big-time performance. The Mavericks are banged up, to be sure, but Dirk Nowitzki is a 'go' and Felton can play huge minutes if Deron Williams's hernia keeps him on the bench (though I'm sure he'll try to play despite his 'questionable' status). The Mavericks are 23-18 both SU and ATS at home, producing a 7-6 spread record in 13 games as home underdogs. OKC is 23-18 SU but has limped to a 17-24 ATS mark on the road this year. I'll go with the healthy home 'dog.
Wunderdog
Toronto @ Indiana
Pick: Toronto -1
Toronto has gotten over the mental block of losing seven straight playoff games after a 98-87 win in Game 2. They got the win even though their star players Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan were a combined 9-of-31 from the field. Jonas Valanciunas led the Raptors with 23 points and 15 rebounds and the Toronto defense held Indiana to a .414 field goal percentage. Paul George scored 28 points for the Pacers, but didn't get much help with Monta Ellis the only other player in double figures with 15 points. Toronto has covered the spread eight of the last nine meetings in Indiana, including a 101-94 overtime win on March 17 when Lowry and DeRozan each scored 28 points and Valanciunas was out with an injury. DeRozan will try to be more aggressive on offense in this matchup as he did not attempt a free throw in Game 2 and Valanciunas will continue to dominate in the middle.
Ian Cameron
Arizona at San Francisco
Play: Arizona +160
The Diamondbacks and Giants wrap up their series this afternoon and I think there is some betting value on the very big underdog. Arizona has been finding ways to win as it has emerged victorious in five out of its last six after a slow start to the season. Shelby Miller will get the call after being forced to leave his last start in the 2nd inning after scraping his right hand on his follow through. It was a bizarre scenario but Miller threw a bullpen side session on Monday and will be ready to go. He's has a tough start to the young season (8.53 ERA) due in large part to the long ball. In outings against power hitting Colorado and Chicago, Miller allowed five home runs. Miller has slowly developed into more of a ground ball pitcher and recorded one of the best HR/FB rates (6.4%) in the league last year. I expect him to shore up the issues and it's likely to start today in pitcher friendly AT&T Park. He also has has a good track record against the Giants, holding them to 3 runs or less in each of his previous five starts dating back to 2013.
Johnny Cueto was much better in his last outing against the Dodgers but was hit hard in his previous start here at AT&T Park: 6 runs on 10 hits in 7 innings. I am convinced that for as good as Johnny Cueto has been in recent years he's no longer a shutdown ace. Some may point to last year's struggles with the Royals as being nothing more than the step up in class to the American League. While it's obviously tougher to pitch in the AL, his age and career innings suggest his days of low 2.00 ERA's are behind him. This is a classic case of early season statistics (Miller "bad", Cueto "good") skewing the line. There just isn't much of a gap between these two starting pitchers. And based on what I've seen, I have a lot more trust in Arizona's bullpen (3.21 ERA) than past editions. Good value play on the road underdog.
SPORTS WAGERS
Seattle (5 innings) -105
Cody Anderson went 7-3 with a 3.05 ERA in 91 innings for the Indians last year and came into this year as a sleeper choice to do well. A strong showing by Anderson in AAA (1.89 ERA in 71 IP) netted a late June call-up, where he continued to roll. However, we’re going to focus on skills, not stats, and what we see is a subpar K-rate that severely limits his upside given equally mediocre swing and miss stuff. Anderson falls behind too many hitters and is forced to come right down the middle because if it. His MLB xERA (5.27) further hints that we may have already seen his best year. Seattle has faced some strong pitching already this year. They play half their games at a strong pitcher’s park. The M’s have also faced Masahiro Tanaka, Carlos Carrasco and Danny Salazar in succession over their past three games. They take a big step down in class here when facing Anderson.
While Nathan Karns’ late ERA spike last year and his 4.50 ERA in two starts this year will keep a lot of the market away from him, there are some solid reasons for optimism now. 1) Karns’ uptick in command in the second half of last year coupled with his big first-pitch strike rate and swing and miss rate growth makes him a big breakout target. 2) Those second half gains are hidden by aberrant hr/f; 3) His strong dominant start/disaster start split reflects his high-floor profile. If those late gains stick (and he even looks better this year) his rising ceiling will not keep him under the radar much longer. The time to inverst in Karns would be now. Because this wager is based on the starting pitchers, we’ll play it in five innings.
SPORTS WAGERS
Pittsburgh -½ +138 over N.Y. RANGERS
Regulation only. We played the Penguins in Game 3 at Madison Square and so there is no point of repeating the same thing over. We are just going to run that same write-up here because the exact same thing applies. Here is that write-up again:
The Rangers went into Pittsburgh and could very easily be up 2-0 instead of being tied 1-1. The Rangers dominated Game 1 so that 5-2 loss is very misleading. While we give the Rangers credit for what they accomplished in the first two games, things are very likely going to take a turn for the worse here.
You see, Pittsburgh just wasn’t prepared properly for what the Rangers brought to the table. The Rangers came out and employed a “hit everything in sight” strategy. They Rangers played an extremely physical two games and we’re suggesting that it somewhat caught the Penguins off guard. The Rangers are not good enough to compete with Pittsburgh so they brought an old-style play to the table and they almost pulled off the double upset. Now that the Penguins have had time to digest what happened and prepare for whatever strategy the Rangers bring, the true colors of both clubs figure to be on display.
Those true colors are as follows: New York is a weak puck possession team that relies on luck, blocking shots and goaltender Henrik Lundqvist to win games. When they do win, they usually get outplayed. The Rangers defense is slow-footed and often has trouble moving the puck out of their own end.
Pittsburgh is a puck-possession monster that can play any style whatsoever. The Penguins have point producers and great role players that know exactly what is expected of them. We have not come close to seeing the best the Penguins have to offer in this series. Again, we’re suggesting they may have been caught off guard a bit and perhaps the return of Evgeni Malkin wreaked a little havoc on a rhythm that the Penguins had set with their established lines while Malkin was out. That all changes here. Pens are going to be a different team in New York and we’re very likely going to be cashing this ticket.
It’s almost as if we wrote that after Game 3 and not before it but things get even better for the Penguins here because they have stable goaltending with Matt Murray. That kid is outstanding and has a playoff game under his belt now. For the Rangers nothing has changed. They are still a weak puck possession team that relies on blocking shots and Henrik Lundqvist to come up huge for a chance to win. Last game New York was out-Corsied 52-33. They had two high quality scoring chances the entire game and they only had nine face-offs in Pittsburgh’s end the entire game too. Rangers need a lot of luck to win so once again we are going to get behind the vastly superior team that has made all the right adjustments.
TAMPA BAY -½ +113 over DETROIT
Regulation only. You’ll notice we played the Red Wings in Game 3 but laid off them in Game 4 because we have witnessed their Jekyll and Hyde act all season long. We suspected Detroit would go right back to their lackluster ways in Game 4 and while the Red Wings tied it up after being down two goals, it was still an ugly and lazy performance from the home side. The scoresheet in this series says it’s been a close one. Two of Tampa’s victories were by one goal and their other victory was tied in the third. However, we don’t see it that way at all. We see a rather disinterested Detroit team getting weaker. We see a team that is not hungry enough to go into Tampa Bay and give it everything they have in order to avoid elimination. There are a few Red Wings players that are fighting hard but there are too many that are not. In order to win playoff hockey, you need every player digging deep, getting dirty and giving 200% on every shift. The Red Wings are not close to getting that effort and they’ll pay the price here.
The only reason the Red Wings have been close on the scoresheet in this series is because Tampa is not a strong team. The Bolts got a terrific first round matchup when they found a team that matches their weak defensive effort almost every night. We have followed the Red Wings closely all year and know something is amiss. More often than not, Detroit just doesn’t bring enough intensity to the rink. We're not sure if it's the coaching or maybe some of the vets are worn but it doesn't really matter because the Wings have major problems between the ears. For Detroit to win they have to rely on the Bolts not showing up.
We made the foolish mistake of getting behind the Red Wings before the series started, thinking that Pavel Datsyuk’s announcement would motivate them but it didn’t. That effort by the Red Wings in the first period of Game 4 in Detroit was truly pathetic. We know the Bolts are beatable and will take advantage of that at a later date but Detroit is not the team to get behind. This series has been all about which team is worse, not better. Tonight, the Red Wings will likely be much worse. Have a nice summer Detroit.
Anaheim Series +170
We have the Predators in the series at +175 and we’re now going to ensure a profit by coming back on the Ducks in the updated series price. Nashville had a chance to put the Ducks away in Game 3 but failed to do so. The Ducks now have life and they may not look back again.
Our concern with the Preds remains the same. We don’t trust Pekka Rinne to steal a game or win a series. The Preds may have also lost a key member of their second line in Craig Smith, who is questionable to return. When it’s all said and done, this series is one that will very likely be decided in this pivotal Game 4, which is rightfully priced at a pick-em. With that in mind, we took our shot with the Preds but we don't want to gamble with them anymore, therefore now would be the time to get out and ensure a profit. Bet the Ducks in the adjusted series price here only if you played Nashville before the series began.
Scott Rickenbach
Angels at White Sox
Prediction: Under
The over is a popular choice here and now that the line is up to a 9.5 (there are even some 10s popping up), this UNDER is definitely worth a look. The Angels have stayed under the total in 4 straight games. The White Sox have stayed under the total in 4 straight games and 8 of their last 9. The Angels are hitting just .220 on the season and averaging only 2.9 runs per game. The White Sox are hitting just .200 in home games and have averaged only 3 runs per game at home. Jered Weaver of the Angels is off of a tough start at Minnesota but his prior start (against the Rangers) saw him keep the Texas lineup off balance throughout. The White Sox will have John Danks on the mound and, while his overall numbers don't look good early this season, the southpaw allowed only 6 hits in his 6 innings at Tampa Bay in his most recent start. Both of these bullpens, and particularly the pen of the ChiSox, have been solid early this season. Comibining that with the fact that both of these teams have struggled to score runs early this season and the fact that the wind is going to be blowing in on a dreary day in Chicago and you have the makings of a lower scoring game than many are expecting.
Dave Price
Chicago Cubs -1.5 -110
It has been a wise move to back Jake Arrieta every time he takes the mound. He's off to a 3-0 start with a 1.23 ERA in 3 starts this season. The Cubs have won 16 consecutive starts by Arrieta. He is 19-1 with a 0.91 ERA, 0.71 WHIP and .156 opponent batting average of his last 23 starts. Arrieta is 16-1 (+14.6 Units) against the money line as a road favorite of -110 or higher over the last 2 seasons. The Cubs are winning these games by an average of 3.9 runs per game.
Joseph D'Amico
Thunder -8½
Oklahoma City was embarrassed at home in game 2's, 85-84 loss to even this series. Now they go into Dallas as a small favorite and will make a point. The Thunder shot a dismal, 33.7% from the floor and 21.9% beyond the arc, with Durant and Westbrook combining for a laughable, 15-of-55. The Mav's competed well on the boards in Monday's, contest which didn't go over well with the NBA's #1 offensive and #2 defensive rebounding squad of OKC. The Road team is 36-17-2 ATS the L55 meetings in this series while the Thunder are 14-6-1 ATS the L21 games played at the Maverick's.
Michael Alexander
A's vs. Yankees
Play: A's +120
Speedy Billy Burns has kicked it into another gear of late, collecting a pair of doubles to highlight his three-hit performance in Wednesday's 5-2 triumph. Burns, who is riding a four-game hitting streak and has three runs scored in that span, is 16-for-42 (.381) in his career versus the Yankees, but has yet to face Thursday starter Luis Severino. New York's offense continues to provide negative news for the tabloids as the team is 4-for-58 with runners in scoring position in its last seven games (1-6) - mustering just 15 runs total in that stretch. Mark Teixeira is 0-for-7 in the series and just 1-for-15 in his last five outings while Brian McCann (1-for-18) and Jacoby Ellsbury (2-for-18) are also struggling at the plate. New York starter Severino suffered his second loss in as many outings on Friday as he yielded four runs on eight hits in 5 2/3 innings of a 7-1 setback to Seattle.
Martin Griffiths
Arsenal vs. West Bromwich Albion
Play: Arsenal -1½ -127
Arsenal were unfortunate to draw at home last weekend to Crystal Palace, they did dominate the game but failed to build on their one goal lead and when that happens you can get punished as they did when a long range shot sneaked in resulting in a draw for the Gunners.
The fans booed Arsenal off after that game and basically ended their very slim hopes of winning the title, now they have to concentrate on staying in the top four, especially with Man City and Man Utd in the mix as well.
West Brom are an average Premier League team, they are simply not as good as Arsenal and will spend most of the game defending, that could be risky, Arsenal will not miss so many chances in game after game.
All things considered I see an home win here and unlike last weekend, I do see Arsenal covering the spread and winning by at least two goals.
Brandon Lee
Tigers +141
I really like the value here with Detroit as a big road dog against the Royals. Just looking at the starting pitching numbers for this season you would give the edge to Edinson Volquez and the Royals. However, Volquez is just 1-4 with a 6.21 ERA and 1.779 WHIP over 7 career starts against the Tigers. On the flip side of this, Detroit's Mike Pelfrey faced the Royals 3 times last season and in those 3 starts allowed just 4 runs over 16 1/3 innings. Most importantly the Tigers won all 3 of those games.
Brian Hay
Pirates vs. Padres
Play:Pirates -137
The Pittsburgh Pirates send Gerrit Cole to the mound today. Pittsburgh has been struggling and Cole will stop the bleeding today. Cole has a 3.09 career ERA and an impressive 40-22 career record. San Diego is a great match up for Cole as the Padres do not have any big left hand bats in their line up. San Diego is only averaging 2.88 runs per game at home this season, and if you exclude Coors Field they are averaging just 2.33 runs overall for the season. The Padres go with Jamie Shields today but he has an ERA of almost 4.00 since coming over to the National League. He is walking nearly 50% more batters than he did in the American League. He's 34 years old and clearly his skills have diminished. If this game is close late, Pittsburgh has a big advantage in the bullpen.
Ricky Tran
A's vs. Yankees
Play: Under 8
Oakland is looking to sweep this set in the Bronx with a third straight win Thursday night. Each of the first two games in the series have gone under with a total of 12 runs scored and under 5-1 in the last 6 meetings. The Yankees' SP for the evening Luis Severino has surrendered seven runs in 10 2/3 innings in his first two starts of the season but has an advantage here as none of the current A's batters have a single at bat against him. Oakland's veteran southpaw Rich Hill has had two rough outings at home and one real solid on the road when he held the Mariners to one run in six innings at Seattle. He permitted two runs on four hits in six innings his last meeting with the Yankees. Under is 6-0 in Athletics last 6 road games, under is 4-0-1 in Yankees last 5 home games.
Jack Jones
Detroit Tigers +141
I'm going to take a shot with the Detroit Tigers as big road underdogs to the Kansas City Royals today. I believe they are worth the price of admission here given that the Royals don't really have the edge on the mound that they are perceived to tonight.
Mike Pelfrey pitched well in his lone road start this season, giving up one earned run over 6 innings in a 0-1 loss to Houston. Pelfrey held his own in three starts against the Royals last season, going 1-0 with a 2.20 ERA while allowing only 4 earned runs in 16 1/3 innings.
Edinson Volquez certainly hasn't enjoyed facing the Tigers, going 1-4 with a 6.21 ERA and 1.779 WHIP in seven career starts against them. In his final three starts against Detroit in 2015, Volquez went 0-1 with a 7.88 ERA while allowing 14 earned runs in 16 innings.