Ray Monohan
Toronto / Baltimore Over 9
The Blue Jays and Orioles are two of the most deepest and powerful teams in the MLB and we get two pitchers here who have struggled against one another, making this Over a nice play. The Blue Jays will send out Marco Estrada, who allowed 4 runs on 8 hits in 6.0 innings last time he worked. Estrada doesn't have anything over powering and has struggled with his location this season. Expect him to leave some balls up in the zone.
As for Tillman, he has gone 4-10 with a 5.79 ERA against the Jays in his career. He just doesn't enjoy seeing this team as they simply have his number.
Some trends to consider. Over is 5-1 in Tillmans last 6 starts vs. Blue Jays. Over is 8-2-1 in Tillmans last 11 Thursday starts.
Look for a lot of pitches to be left up in the zone from these two pitches. Given that, both teams should enjoy a lot of offense in a game that goes Over the total.
Teddy Davis
Houston vs. Texas
Play: Texas +150
The Rangers are definitely worth a look here at this big of price. I realize Dallas Keuchel is taking the mound for the Astros but he is just 4-4 in 14 career starts vs the Rangers with an ERA near 4. Also the Astros aren't doing anything offensively right now and the Rangers have all the momentum going for the sweep. AJ Griffin is a good starting pitchers not getting enough credit here. He is 3-0 life time vs the Astros and will be looking for a strong bounce back performance.
SPS Investors
Angels vs. White Sox
Pick: Angels
The Angels and White Sox conclude their 4 game series this afternoon from US Cellular Field. The White Sox managed to take a 2-1 series lead last night behind a gem of a game from their Ace, Chris Sale. The Angels managed to take Game 1, but have dropped 2 straight in the series. Their high-powered offense hasn't quite gotten off to the start they envisioned as the big bats of Mike Trout and Albert Pujols have been rather quiet in the early going which has been a big reason for their struggles. Pujols does have 10 RBIs but sports an unimpressive .158 BA and went hitless again last night. It is only a matter of time before the Angels offense springs to life and we believe this series finale could be their starting point, especially against a struggling pitcher like John Danks.
Danks has struggled in his last two appearances on the mound. He is 0-2 and has posted a 7.94 ERA with a 1.59 WHIP across 11.1 innings. He gave up five runs in 6.1 frames in his last start against a somewhat mediocre Tampa Bay Rays offense on Saturday. The Angels have had their share of struggles on the offensive end, but did put up 7 runs in Game 1 of this series. Given how Danks has struggled, we wouldn't be surprised to see a similar offensive output from the Angels in this contest.
The Angels will counter by sending Jared Weaver to the mound this afternoon. Although Weaver is not the pitcher that he once was, he has been ultra-impressive against the White Sox in his career. He is 10-2 lifetime with a sparkling 1.99 ERA and .930 WHIP in 13 career appearances. The Angels need to win this game in order to even the series and given their somewhat mediocre offensive performances in the last two contests, we expect their offense to flourish against Danks. They are showing great value as slight underdogs and should come away with the series-tying victory.
OSKEIM SPORTS
Oakland Athletics at New York Yankees
Play: New York Yankees -128
36-year-old journeyman Rich Hill parlayed four strong starts in September for the Red Sox into a one-year contract with Oakland. Hill's 2015 campaign started in Washington's farm system where he posted a pedestrian 4.40 FIP in forty relief appearances. Hill then took his talents to Pawtucket (Boston's Triple-A team) where he was integrated into the starting rotation, posting a 3.59 FIP over five starts.
With Boston's postseason hopes dashed, the Red Sox decided to give Hill a shot in the big leagues where he made four starts in September. Over 29 innings, Hill posted a 34% strikeout rate, an 11.3% swinging strike rate and a 7.2 strikeouts per walk rate. With a 1.55 ERA and 2.27 FIP over those four outings, Hill was signed by Oakland during the offseason and went 0-2 with an 11.25 ERA and 2.25 WHIP in four spring training starts (12 IP; 15 ER; 15 BB; 9 K).
Hill is 1-2 with a 4.15 ERA and 1.69 WHIP in three starts this season, averaging just 4.3 innings per outing. The aging southpaw now faces a New York lineup that is averaging 5.1 runs per game at home with a .787 OPS. Meanwhile, New York sends talented right-hander Luis Severino to the mound to face an anemic Oakland attack that is averaging just 2.9 runs per game this season, including 2.7 runs per game versus right-handed starters.
Don't be fooled by Severino's 5.90 ERA as the 22-year-old possesses elite talent and an unlimited upside after posting a 2.89 ERA in 62.1 innings for the Yankees last season. Severino also owns a 3.25 FIP, 2.74 xFIP and 2.95 SIERA this season, together with a 57.5% ground ball rate and 0.84 BB/9 rate. The issue has been an unsustainable .436 BABIP, which is likely to regress in the near future. Severino is also supported by an excellent New York bullpen that owns a 2.29 ERA and 1.04 WHIP in 2016, including a 1.39 ERA and 1.00 WHIP at home.
Technically speaking, the Yankees are 27-12 in their last 39 game 3 (of a series) scenarios and a perfect 7-0 with umpire Jeff Nelson behind home plate. With Oakland standing at a money-burning 7-19 in its last 26 games versus American League East foes and 4-10 in its last fourteen game 3 (of a series) scenarios, take the Yankees and invest with confidence.
Teddy Covers
Oakland vs. New York
Pick: New York
The A’s have a better early season record than the Yankees do. That being said, moving forward, I see much more upside with New York’s roster than with Oakland’s. And I have no hesitation betting against A’s starter Rich Hill.
Hill will be facing a lineup built to hammer opposing left handers, bad news in a situation where the Bronx Bombers are looking to avoid the three game sweep at home.
When Rich Hill is on, like he was once in three starts this year (against the Mariners), he’s a decent starter. But Hill’s consistency has been a problem, as has his health; a guy who has only thrown 187 big league innings since throwing 195 innings back in 2007. Four other teams have given up on him since the start of the 2013 season. Behind Hill, the A’s spotty bullpen has already been overused. And the A’s anemic lineup is averaging only three runs per game, producing more than five runs only once in 15 games – if their pitching isn’t elite, they’ll have a hard time winning.
The Yankees bullpen is as good as it gets – when they have the lead after six innings, they’re tough to beat. And starter Luis Severino is an undervalued commodity right now after his first two starts were both ugly, to the tune of a .383 batting average against and a 5.71 ERA. The advanced metric numbers show clearly how unlucky he has been in those first two outings with a .436 BABIP. His xFIP is at 2.72, less than half his ERA. Those are ‘bet-on’ numbers in this price range and this spot!
Aaron Toller
Pirates vs. Padres
Pick: Under 7
Thursday free play in baseball is on the under 7 runs in San Diego. Good pitching matchup where both pitchers have struggled to get off to strong starts. Both previous games have been high scoring something unusual for Petco park. I see this one being a 3-2 type ballgame tonight.
Bruce Marshall
San Diego +130
Pittsburgh is enduring a rocky series as its unimpressive start to 2016 continues. The Bucs have not been getting consistent pitching and have surrendered 13 runs over the last two nights in losses vs. the light-hitting Padres. Pirates starter Gerrit Cole will be hard-pressed to keep pace with San Diego counterpart James Shields, who has pitched in hard luck in his first three starts but posted a 1.38 ERA over two starts against Pittsburgh last season.
Harry Bondi
HOUSTON +5 over Golden State
Another Free winner yesterday in the NBA Playoffs and we will stay in roundball tonight and back the Rockets to make a stand at home in Houston. Steph will be out again tonight for Golden State and its time for Harden and Howard to step up. Rockets are not nearly as bad as they have played so far and we thought they would win 1 game in this series and tonight will be the night.
Bob Balfe
Rockets +5
As of 4PM EST Steph Curry isn’t playing tonight. Simply put with Curry out of the lineup this team is just average at best. If you look at their numbers without Curry you will find they have been outscored by opponents. Houston doesn’t have a shot in this series, but they as a team still are fighting. A win here and anything is possible. The Rockets have a lot of shooters and should take advantage of Curry being out of the line up.
Blue Jays -105
The Orioles got away with one last night as they did quick damage in the first inning and could not put up anything after that. This Baltimore team was lucky to cash in on a wild pitch to seal the deal. Tonight the Blue Jays should get decent pitching and it will be themselves on the winning end of a close game. Look for the Toronto bats to be hot tonight.
Jeff Benton
Your Thursday freebie is the Blues over the Blackhawks.
It happens to the best of them, and tonight it will happen to the defending Stanley Cup Champions, as Chicago has simply been out-hungered by the starving St. Louis Blues.
In reality, this series should be over already, as St. Louis was jobbed on an off-sides call that wiped away the go-ahead goal with under 10 minutes to go in Game Two on their home ice as Chicago was able to steal that win.
Other than that, the Blues have simply flustered the Blackhawks in this series.
Andrew Shaw drew an untimely penalty on Tuesday, and his homophobic outburst from the penalty box netted him a suspension as well. That penalty and many others during this series at critical times have cost the Hawks and put them on the brink of elimination.
Then there is the matter that Blue netminder Brian Elliot has simply been a wall.
On Tuesday, St. Louis was outshot by over 2-to-1, and yet they won the game.
Simply put, its their time.
Blues advance.
3* ST. LOUIS
Scott Delaney
St. Louis is a win away from moving on to the next round, and that's basically enough for me to believe the Blues can win this game and eliminate the Chicago Blackhawks
I am not sure what has gotten into the Blackhawks lately, but they've been undisciplined and been playing like a team that is unaware what it takes to win in the postseason. It doesn't come close to looking like a team that just a couple years back won the Stanley Cup.
St. Louis has been poised, and has plenty of momentum behind it, after being bounced from the playoffs in the first round each of the previous three seasons. The Blues are playing some of their best postseason hockey since last advancing to the second round in 2012.
The Blues are well aware Chicago trailed Detroit 3-1 in the Western Conference semifinals in 2013, won Game 7 in overtime and went on to win the Stanley Cup. St. Louis isn't about to squander its lead.
3* ST. LOUIS
Chris Jordan
The Rangers have now won three straight games after last night's win and now you're telling me I can catch nearly a buck and a half with the home team that is streaking? Yeah, I'm playing the home underdog with a lot of money to be won.
After last night's 2-1 win over the Astros, the Rangers have now won seven of 10, and come into this one a three-game win streak. They're sitting atop the American League West, just a half-game ahead of Oakland. Houston, on the other hand, is 5-10 on the year and has lost seven of 10, including two straight.
The Astros are not in any position to snap their offensive woes, and I don't care who is pitching for them. This is a bad series for them to be on the road.
Take Texas tonight and look for that big dog price to come in.
4* RANGERS
Brad Wilton
My comp play release for Thursday is to stay the course and continue to play the Raptors-Pacers Under the posted total.
Both games played to open this series at the Air Canada Centre held Under the total, as 4 of the last 5 this season between these Eastern Conference rivals have held Under the total.
Toronto comes into this one with Unders played in 6 of their last 8 dating back to the regular season, while Indiana is on a 4 game Under roll since the end of the regular campaign.
The Pacers have played Unders in each of their last 4 postseason quarterfinal contests, while the Raptors are 6-0 Under the total their last 6 games following a straight up victory.
Hard to argue those numbers, isn't it?
Raptors-Pacers stay true to form and hold Low on Thursday.
2* TORONTO-INDIANA UNDER
Gabriel DuPont
Free play for tonight, as I look to improve on my 46-30 run with complimentary plays: Toronto at INDIANA (+1')
The STORYLINE in this game today - The Indiana Pacers were supposed to factor in the Eastern Conference race. Instead, they clung to their playoff hopes and crept into the postseason. Tonight they need to make a statement and I think they will against the Toronto Raptors as the home underdog.
The X-FACTOR in making this choice on this game - Paul George is pissed. He isn't happy one bit, and wants to go off. Tonight is as good a night as any. He finished with 33 points and hit 4 of 5 from 3-point range in Saturday's 100-90 Game 1 victory, then scored 28 points and went 10 for 11 from the free-throw line in a 98-87 loss at Air Canada Centre in Game 2. Tonight, the first one at home for the Pacers this season, he will be looking to make a major statement here.
BOTTOM LINE is - Indiana stole home-court advantage, and George is frustrated his team didn't take a 2-0 series lead. Remember, this team was supposed to be where the Raptors are, as an Eastern Conference elite. Not at the bottom. So this series - ever game - is pivotal for Indiana. Take the home pup.
3* PACERS