Free Picks for Thursday, April 27th, 2017 from some of the nations best and worst handicappers
DAVE COKIN
RAPTORS AT BUCKS
PLAY: BUCKS -1.5
Props to Raptors head coach Dwane Casey, who has made some really solid adjustments in this series. As a result, Toronto now has the 3-2 lead over Milwaukee and the Raptors would close out the series with a win at Milwaukee this evening.
But I don’t see the Bucks just rolling over and conceding the issue. This team has impressed me all season in terms of what I expected and what they’ve produced.
I’m not going to make a strong case for Milwaukee here for what should be an obvious reason. If I felt that strongly about this side, it would be a personal service play. Instead, as this is more gut feeling than anything else, I’m just assigning the added opinion label. What that means is, if you think the Raptors are the way to play tonight, then don’t let me try to talk you off that side. But my take is that the Bucks find a way to squeeze one out tonight and in the process, Milwaukee forces the Game Seven finale back in Toronto.
Rocketman
San Diego @ Arizona
Play: Arizona -161
The San Diego Padres travel to Arizona to take on the Diamondbacks on Thursday night. San Diego is 8-14 SU overall this year while Arizona comes in with a 14-8 SU overall record on the season. Jered Weaver is 0-1 with a 4.24 ERA on the road this season. Taijuan Walker is 1-1 with a 1.50 ERA in his 2 career starts vs San Diego. San Diego is scoring only 3.3 runs per game overall this year, 3.2 runs per game on the road this season, 3.1 runs per game against right handed starters and 3.1 runs per game at night this year. Arizona is scoring 5.5 runs per game overall this year, 7.5 runs per game at home this season, 5.6 runs per game against right handed starters, 6.1 runs per game their past 7 games overall, 5.5 runs per game on grass and 6.2 runs per game at night this season. Arizona is batting .325 as a team at home this year. Arizona is 10-2 SU at home this year. Arizona is 10-2 SU at home when the total is 10 to 10 1/2 the past 3 seasons. We'll recommend a small play on Arizona tonight!
Scott Rickenbach
Penguins vs. Capitals
Play: Over 5½
Welcome to the 2nd round of the post-season. After a layoff for the teams between the end of the 1st round and the beginning of the 2nd round, the impact certainly showed as 15 goals were scored in the 2 games yesterday! Speaking of 15 goals, the last time these two powerhouses met, the Pens and Caps combined for 15 goals on January 16th! There have been only 2 unders in the last 12 meetings between these teams. The over is also 7-0, 100% PERFECT this season when the Penguins enter a game off of 3 or more days of rest! Pittsburgh's games against divisional opponents went 23-11 to the over in the regular season! The Capitals scored 3 goals or more in the first 4 games of their series with the Maple Leafs and the Penguins scored 4 goals or more in the final 4 games of their series with the Blue Jackets. Given the potency and firepower of both of these hockey clubs (and given the way yesterday's 2nd round featured tons of goals) I look for a wild one in DC to get this series underway. Look for a barnburner here.
Alex Smart
Penguins vs. Capitals
Play: Penguins +130
The defending Stanley Cup Champion Pittsburgh Penguins know how important it is for them to steal a game in Washington vs the Capitals to get an advantage in this series. With that said, look for a top tier effort from a Pens team that knows how to win big games.
PITTSBURGH is 11-2 ATS L/13 off a home win against a division rival this season.WASHINGTON is 1-6 ATS when playing with 3 or more days rest this season.
Mike Lundin
Blue Jays vs. Cardinals
Play: Over 8
The Toronto Blue Jays won Tuesday's matchup 6-5. Wednesday's contest got rained out butd I think we'll see plenty of action over the plate again Thursday afternoon.
The Cardinals' Carlos Martinez (0-3, 4.76 ERA) opened the season with 7 1/3 scoreless innings against the Cubs, but he's been roughed up in each of his last three starts since. He was knocked around for five runs on seven hits with a pair of home runs in five innings of a 7-5 loss at Milwaukee his last time out.
The Blue Jays hand the ball to Mat Latos (0-0, 7.20 ERA) who conceded four runs on six hits and three walks in five innings at LAA on April 21 in his lone start so far this season. He's posted a 5.76 ERA in 13 career meetings with St. Louis.
Over is 6-1 in the last seven meetings at Busch Stadium.
Jesse Schule
Rangers vs. Senators
Play: Senators +102
The Senators aren't getting a lot of respect here in the post-season, as most people are picking the Rangers to win this second round series. It's tough to bet against Ottawa though, especially considering the play of goaltender Craig Anderson. He had the second best save percentage in the NHL this season, and he's been dominating here in the playoffs. Defenseman Erik Karlsson has also been on top of his game for the Senators, who ranked 22nd in the league in scoring during the regular season. The Sens aren't a flashy team, and they don't have a lot of star power up front. They got this far with solid goaltending and a rock solid blue line. They play a tough, gritty style that just might be effective here against the Rangers. New York had little trouble scoring during the regular season, but they scored just 11 goals on Carey Price in six games in their first round series versus Montreal. The Habs carried the play for most of the series, but struggled to score on Henrik Lundqvist. With Ottawa playing on home ice in Game 1, I think the price is right to back the Sens.
Andrew Gold
Marlins vs. Phillies
Play: Phillies -102
The Phillies are worth a look here at this short price because they are playing their best ball right now. They have now won 5 straight and 6 of their last 7 games. They also have a huge advantage on the mound with Hellickson who is off to a great start. He is 3-0 with a 1.87 ERA. The impressive thing is that of those 4 starts 2 of them are against the Nationals. That adds even more value to him.
Volquez is off to a very slow start as he has failed to make it past the 5th inning in his last two starts. He has a road ERA of 5.14 and a 6.58 ERA his last 3 starts.
Marc Lawrence
Blue Jays vs. Cardinals
Play: Blue Jays +162
Edges - Blue Jays: Latos 8-0 last 8 team starts during April… Cardinals: Martinez 0-3 with 7.33 ERA and 11 walks in last three starts. With Martinez in wobbly current form we recommend a 1* play on Toronto.
Dustin Hawkins
Braves vs. Mets
Play: Mets -215
Atlanta is 25-60 against the money line in road games vs teams who strand 6.9 or less runners on base per game over the last 3 seasons. NY Mets are 42-21 against the money line after 6 consecutive games versus division rivals over the last 3 seasons.NY Mets are 2-1 against Atlanta this season.
Teddy Davis
Blue Jays vs. Cardinals
Play: Cardinals -1½
I had this as a premium play last night so I really do see a lot of value here with the Cardinals on the RL. Prior to losing game 1 they had won 3 straight and 6 of their last 7. Playing very good ball after a rough start to the season.
They send their ace Carlos Martinez to the mound who will be very motivated here still looking for his first win of the season. He has pitched well at home with a 3.65 ERA in two starts, but not enough run support to back him.
Latos is making his second start of the season I simply don't trust him here. His first start was ugly going 5 innings only striking out 1 and walking 3. He also hasn't fared very well against the Cardinals for his career with a 5.65 ERA.
Tony Karpinski
Yankees vs. Red Sox
Play: Under 7½
This is one of the lowest totals I've seen in a Yankees/RedSox game since the days of Pedro and Clemens pitching. The surging Yankees are 10-4 in starts by Masahiro Tanaka against winning opponents. Red Sox starter Chris Sale has allowed just three earned runs all season, and I expect a pitchers duel here tonight.
Rob Vinciletti
Atlanta vs. New York
Play: New York -1.5
The Mets were pasted here last night and have lost 5 straight at home. Today they have Syndergaard going and he shut the braves down through 6 scoreless here this month. Dickey for Atlanta has a 4.76 road Era and Atlanta bullpen Era on the road is over 5. Home favorites in this range off a home favored loss by 5 or more runs scoring 2 or less that made 3+ errors have covered on the run line over 80% long term. Look for the Mets to win this one.
Brandon Shively
Toronto vs. Milwaukee
Pick: Under
In Game Five I had the over and cashed when the Raptors and Bucks both shot the ball well and the game finished at 211 points. I think there is some value on the under in this one. It would be really hard for these two teams to shoot as well as they did last game. The Bucks shot 50% from the floor and were still blown out. The Raptors shot almost 60% from the floor.
With the Bucks having their backs against the wall here, I expect the tempo to slow down and the defenses to both pick it up a notch or two.
Jim Feist
Rangers at Senators
Pick: Under
A pair of strong defenses clash and it's Game 1, which means both teams will focus on defense, not wanting to make any mistakes to allow early goals. New York is #12 in the NHL in goals allowed, off a 3-1 win over Montreal. It was their third straight win allowing four total goals. New York is 15-5-2 under the total against the Atlantic division, 16-5-7 under in their last 28 Conference Semifinals games. Ottawa is all about defense first, #10 in goals allowed, #22 in scoring, #23 on the power play. Ottawa is 35-16-2 under the total at home and 36-17-4 under against the Eastern Conference. The under is 32-10-9 when these teams clash, 16-6-7 under at Ottawa.