Dave Essler
Marlins / Phillies Over 7.5
Yes, I do know most books have "8" now, but my priority is trying to ensure that my clients get the best number, so we bet this last night. I throw it out because at 8, should it land on 8, it's a push and not a loss, so clearly still worth a marble. We've got decent weather, a decent umpire, and both teams are hitting - and using bullpens yesterday. Bullpens that hadn't been very spiffy to begin with. I do like to wait for lineups in these day game because, well, sometimes these players get tired and need a rest. But, obviously I didn't do that today or we wouldn't be having this conversation. Hellickson and/or Volquez are capable of giving most of these runs up before we get that far, last nights 2* winner, there are many ways this happens and not too many that it doesn't.
SPORTS WAGERS
OTTAWA -104 over N.Y. Rangers
Although we have the Senators in the series, it’s not going to deter us from betting the individual games. Every single player and coach in every sport read the articles on the internet and also listen to what the different experts are predicting or discussing before, after and between periods. They watch the highlights, they read Twitter and they know exactly what the general consensus is. A long time player and now a coach was asked what is the difference between today’s players and the player’s he played with. His answer was that when he played, the guys would go out for a bite and a couple of beers after the game and now they go back their hotel rooms and tweet all night. We mention this because Ottawa’s Coach, Guy Boucher started out his press conference saying, “Nobody gives us a chance. We’re not supposed to be winning. Vegas has us at 10-1 while New York is a contender every year. Everybody seems to think that they’re going to roll all over us so I guess they’re a pretty good team.”
The point Boucher was trying to get across is that his team loves the role of the underdog. Every player on that Ottawa bench knows exactly what the media is suggesting. It is extremely motivating to go out and prove (almost) everyone wrong. These Senators are playing with a chip on their shoulder and frankly, we can’t get behind them fast enough. Go to ESPN or CBS Sports and check out their “expert” predictions for this series. Of the 10 “experts” at ESPN, nine of them picked the Rangers. That 90% rate represents the general public, which we’re suggesting is way off in this series. Ottawa is very bit the Rangers equal and then some. In every aspect of the game, we don’t see where the Rags have an edge (see our series write-up). The Sens have the best player on the ice in this series, they have as much depth, they’re more physically imposing and they also have a significant edge in puck possession numbers. Thus, when we can grab the Senators at a bargain we’re going to do so and the fact that New York is favored in Game 1 in Ottawa is incorrect.
NOTE: Just like yesterday, we're interested to see where they line settles later today and we'll make a decision then on whether or not to pull the trigger. We're anticipating money coming in on the Rags, thus, we;re likely going to get a better number. If money comes in on the Sens. we can choose to lay off and ride our Series bets. WE'LL UPDATE around dinner time.
Washington to win East +165
The Capitals are in the -135 to -140 range to beat Pittsburgh in the second round but instead of spotting a price, we’ll take the Caps to advance to the next round, where they will be a much bigger favorite over New York or Ottawa, especially if they dispose of the Penguins quickly and then we’ll have Washington +165 in that series. At that point, we can always buy back the next opponent and free roll on the Caps, which is our plan for now. Therefore, this is a bet on Washington to defeat Pittsburgh to set up a free-roll for the East Finals.
What you are going to read or hear about over and over is Pittsburgh’s utter dominance against Washington over the last decade. Using that useless information to make a selection in this series is an exercise in futility. Of course the Penguins can win this series but if they do, it’s not because they beat Washington nine years ago.
Another thing you are going to read or hear about is the Capitals difficulty in disposing of the Maple Leafs. Well, let us turn that around. Toronto might have beaten almost any other team in the first round. They were loose, they’re extremely talented and they got outstanding goaltending from Fredrick Andersen for most of the series. The Capitals had to deal with speed, talent and an abundance of pressure to get by the first round. They answered the call in all areas and they also did not allow the Maple Leafs to sustain pressure in their end. For the most part, Toronto was one and done on far too many occasions. That first round prepped the Capitals well for what is in store for them here. The focus on the first round was how well the Maple Leafs played but let’s give some credit to the Capitals, as they were tremendous and also stepped up in the OT periods when they had to. Combine Washington’s difficulty with Toronto with Pittsburgh easily defeating the Jackets in five games and the market perception on this series is off.
Indeed the Pens defeated Columbus in five games but Pittsburgh was the second best team on the ice in all five games. We’re not going to bore you with all the stats but Columbus out-chanced, outshot, outworked and out-everythinged the Penguins in the first round and most of it was by a wide margin. The only reason that the Penguins aren’t watching round two from the rail is because Sergei Bobrovsky was atrocious. Had the Jackets switched to Joonas Korpisalo in Game 2, Pittsburgh would be golfing right now.
We often suggest not putting a lot of emphasis on one series or one game but it’s more than that. You see, the last repeat winners of the Cup were the Detroit Red Wings in 1997 and 1998, almost 20 years ago. That shows how difficult it is to repeat because playing well into June will burn out any team. Hockey is a physical, grueling game and to not have a significant break and then perform brilliantly in back-to-back playoff years is near impossible. We all saw the Sharks (last year’s other Stanley Cup finalist) bow out early this year and Pittsburgh should have been right behind them. The Penguins will not run into weak goaltending this series. Furthermore, the Penguins have to rely on Marc Andre Fleury and he’s always just a bad goal away from melting down entirely.
In the 2016 playoffs, Kris Letang exceeded 30 minutes of ice time in four of five games against the Capitals, including more than 35 minutes of regulation in Game 2. There will be no Kris Letang this year and that puts the Penguins at a disadvantage right off the bat. If anyone watched the Penguins trying to break out of their own end against the Jackets in the first round, it was painful. They were a mess and if they don’t or can’t clean that up, this series might be over quickly. The Pens might also be missing Carl Hagelin and Chris Kunitz for a game or longer and those role players are a big part of Pittsburgh’s success.
One can never count the Penguins out but the Capitals are hungrier and they’re better than Pittsburgh when the Pens don’t have Letang and are forced to use their backup goaltender. There is also the unlikely task of repeating that means so much more than Pittsburgh’s playoff domination over Washington. Teams’ still need a healthy dose of speed, skill and finesse to win at this time of year, but physicality becomes a big part of winning too. That is especially so on the forecheck, where a forward can disrupt a breakout with a big hit and cause a turnover. A disruptive hit early in a game can cause defensive indecision later and those turnovers and scoring chances keep coming. That’s what Columbus did to Pittsburgh and that’s what is likely to go down in this series too. The domination ends here.
We are going to make this a 3-unit bet with the intention of buying back one unit on the underdog in the next series should Washington get by Pittsburgh. That will set up a near free roll for 2 units at +165 in the East Finals.
Series Wager - OTTAWA +135 over N.Y. Rangers
The Rangers can win this series for sure. New York’s strength is that they can score goals and when you can score goals, you always have a chance. Rick Nash was a beast against Montreal. Despite scoring just two goals and an assist, he drove hard to the net and set the tone up front. Derek Stepan and Chris Kreider struggled against Montreal but it would be unreasonable to expect that pair to struggle in this series too. They are too good to not be noticeable. New York defeated Montreal and Carey Price in six games despite some big names not producing. Jimmy Vesey showed he was ready for prime time. Playing with a snarl and bite, he made plays the entire series and of course there is the usual suspects like Mats Zuccarello, J.T. Miller and Mika Zibanejad. Pavel Buchnevich and Michael Grabner round out a group of forwards that is as dangerous as any group in the game. Scoring goals is not the problem. The problem is puck possession.
New York remains the worst puck possession team in the playoffs but the Canadiens were not able to exploit that weakness because they are not a “cycle” team. The Canadiens do not have the big bodies going into the corners and out-battling the opposition for the puck. They are more of a finesse team. While the Rangers defense is better this year with the additions of Brendan Smith and Brady Skjei, the analytics say that they’re just very slightly better than a year ago. The Senators just need to watch film of the Rags in last year’s playoffs and they’ll have the blueprint to bury them.
The Senators raw Corsi was better than New York’s plus they were better in the final 25 games of the regular season as well as in the first round of the playoffs. What’s significant about that is Ottawa played a monster possession team in Boston in the first round and won the possession battle. Winning the possession battle against New York absolutely figures to be easier.
As far as talent up front, the Sens can match the Rags line for line and then some. The Ryan Dzingel, Kyle Turris, Alexandre Burrows line is big, tough and dangerous. The Clarke MacArthur, Derick Brassard, Bobby Ryan line is big, tough, dangerous and quick. MacArthur returning and having an impact not only gives the Sens a massive boost, it’s also one more problem that the Rags have to deal with. The Mike Hoffman, Jean-Gabriel Pageau, Mark Stone line is creative, quick, extremely talented and so damn dangerous. That third line might be the most underrated threesome in the game. Finally, there is the fourth line of Viktor Stalberg, Zack Smith and Tommy Wingels or Tom Pyatt. Both Stalberg and Smith are top nine forwards on 95% of the teams in this league but on Ottawa they are fourth line players and we haven’t even mentioned the best player in the series yet. Ottawa has Erik Karlsson and New York doesn’t. Ottawa has the best skater in this series, and sometimes that can make all the difference. Alex Novet of Hockey Graphs has a great article on why hockey is a “strong link” game, making Karlsson more important than this market realizes.
Speaking of the market, we have to question once again why the Senators are a dog again. They have home ice advantage, they have the best player in the series, they almost swept the Bruins and they have zero disadvantages in this series. That brings us back to value where the market has this series wrongly priced. Ottawa continues to be the most disrespected team in the market and it’s because they are Canada’s “small market” team that few watched during the regular season while the Rangers are in the biggest market on the continent. If all things bounce equally, Ottawa should have an easier time disposing of the Rags than they did disposing of the Bruins.
SPORTS WAGERS
Miami/PHIL Over 8½
The effect of humidity on air density is very slight and is actually opposite what it is commonly purported to be. The common reputation of humidity is that it is heavy; however, this is a misnomer. Humidity is actually light for a projectile to fly through, because there is more hydrogen in humid air than in dry air, which contains a larger percentage of nitrogen. And, of course, nitrogen is heavier than hydrogen.
There is a scale that takes into account humidity, as well as temperature and elevation-related barometric pressure that gives us an Air Density Index reading at every ball park or zip code and the reading today at Citizen’s Bank Park is 67.82. Keep in mind that Coors Field is generally in the low 50’s while almost all other parks are between 60 and 80. Also keep in mind that low Air Density Index means high scoring and a high reading means low scoring.
Today’s Air Density Index reading at Citizen’s Bank Park is the lowest it’s been all season thus far. Yesterday, for instance, the reading was 72 and the final score was 7-4. The Phillies also had a 14-4 loss and a 17-3 victory this year at home and on both those days, the Air Density Index reading was higher than it is today. What we have today is two very hittable pitchers in a hitter’s park with perfect conditions to send it over the number.
COLORADO -1½ +199 over Washington
We’re not going to go into a lot of details here regarding the pitchers because it matters not when playing at Coors Field. We are going to commit to playing the underdog all season long at Coors Field on the ALTERNATIVE run line. What that means is that we are playing the remainder of Colorado’s home games this season and we’ll be playing the underdog in each game, whether it’s the Rocks or the opposition and we’ll be playing it regardless of who’s pitching. We’re suggesting that this wager has nothing but big profits in store. With totals being in the 10 to 12½ range daily at this venue, far more games are decided by two runs or more than one run and the underdog wins just as much as the favorite. The pitching matchups rarely matter because even the best get rocked at this park. We’ll keep a running record on this angle all season long:
Year to date:
5-5 +7.88 units
ARIZONA -1½ +116 over San Diego
Through his first 15 starts of 2016, Taijuan Walker (RHP) had a 3.29 ERA and seemed on his way to a breakout season for the Mariners. His numbers fell off considerably in the second half (5.68 ERA), as he dealt with a right foot injury that required offseason surgery to remove an extra bone and 10 spurs. After four starts this season, Walker has a 4.57 ERA but his underlying skills are top notch. Walker has been able to generate a solid K-rate that’s fully supported by his swing and miss rate, thanks largely to his splitter (14% swing and miss rate; 19% usage). Walker has limited free passes by getting ahead early in the count and pounding the strike zone. Home runs were a major problem for Walker in 2016, but an unfortunate hr/f is ripe for some regression.
A quick glance at Walker's 2H metrics illustrates just how far things slipped, as he attempted to pitch through the foot ailment. Walker spent the offseason adjusting his pitching mechanics to gain more deception, with the plan being to make his very rarely used sinker and slider much bigger parts of his arsenal (2016 usage: sinker 2%, slider 1%). Thus far, he has incorporated both into his repertoire and it’s helped to keep his groundball rate at an elite level (61% last game). Walker has already flashed enticing skills and upside so, with good health, he could take a significant step forward this year.
Then there is our favorite son, Jered Weaver. The Padres are 0-4 when Weaver starts but he brings in some decent surface stats that include a 3.91 ERA and an oppBA of just .221. Over his past three starts covering six full innings in all of them, Weaver allowed just two runs in each start. In 23 frames, he’s walked just four batters so it would appear that he's made a commitment to throwing more strikes this season. The numbers look serviceable on the surface but once again, surface stats are grossly misleading. In 23 frames, Weaver has been taken yard seven times. He’s been very fortunate that six of those jacks were solo shots. His fastball tops off at 83 MPH so guys are going up there wanting to cream the baseball instead of just hitting it and it becomes more like a cartoon scene, whereas the ball is coming in so slow that the batter swings 25 times at it before it crosses the plate.
Jered Weaver should be batting practice out there. His ERA rose each of the past five years and his xERA confirms that it’s no fluke. The slide correlates strongly with a serious drop in velocity and while he’s never been a big strikeout guy, his K-rate has been positively subterranean over the past two seasons and into this year. To recap, Weaver throws slow, he gives up a ton of fly-balls, he doesn’t strike out many and he has surrendered seven bombs in 23 innings. One cannot reasonably expect a decent outing from this stiff ever again, especially in a hitter’s park like the one he’ll pitch in here.
Ray Monohan
Marlins vs. Phillies
Play: Phillies -108
The Miami Marlins and the Philadelphia Phillies match up on Thursday afternoon and the Phillies have a lot of value in this one. On the mound for the Phillies is Jeremy Hellickson who has had a really nice start to his season. He comes into this game with a 3-0 record and an ERA of 1.88.
On the other side of this match up for the Marlins is Edinson Volquez who hasn't had a very nice start to the season. He comes into this game with a record of 0-2 and an ERA of 4.82. Some trends to note. Phillies are 4-0 in Hellicksons last 4 home starts. Phillies are 4-0 in their last 4 overall. Phillies are 5-1 in Hellicksons last 6 starts vs. Marlins.
Jimmy Boyd
Dodgers vs. Giants
Play: Over 7½
I like the value we are getting here with the total in Thursday's NL West clash between the Dodgers and Giants. AT&T Park is known as a pitchers park, but I think it's going to favor the offense today. The ball carries a little better during the day than it does at night and the wind will be blowing straight out to center at close to 15 mph (progressively getting stronger as the game goes on). On top of that we have a favorable pitching matchup when it comes to offense.
LA is going to send out youngster Julio Urias who will be making his first start in the big leagues, as the Dodgers kept in the minors to monitor his innings early in the year. Urias is a talented kid, but I look for him to struggle in his 2017 debut. On the flip side of this, the Dodgers offense should be able to put some runs on the board against Giants starter Matt Moore, who owns a 5.87 ERA and 1.565 WHIP in 4 starts. Moore also owns a 4.39 ERA in 5 career starts against the Dodgers. OVER is 7-2 in Moore's last 9 starts dating back to last season.
Bill Biles
Penguins vs. Capitals
Play: Capitals -135
Right before the series started the Capitals got a huge boost in Vegas to win the series. I think that bodes well for them here in game one. They are playing at home and both teams have had some rest, so the home crowd will give the Caps that added boost for the first 10 minutes of the game.
Info Plays
Nationals vs. Rockies
Play: Rockies +113
I have a few systems backing our pick. Colorado is 64-52 (+21.1 Units) against the money line in day games over the last 3 seasons. Colorado is 145-115 (+36.8 Units) against the money line revenging 2 straight home losses vs opponent since 1997.
Matt Fargo
Padres vs. Diamondbacks
Play: Padres +160
The Padres took Game Three of this series last night and will be out to make it a split tonight. The road has not been kind to San Diego for the most part as it snapped a six-game road losing streak with the Wednesday victory thanks to the offense that put up its most runs in a road game this season. The Diamondbacks have been a pleasant surprise as they are 14-9 and trail the Rockies by just a half-game in the National League West. Their offense has been very solid but they have not faced much and while the opposing starter tonight is not going to scare anyone, he has held his own. Jered Weaver has been very efficient as he has posted three straight quality starts and overall has a 3.91 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in four starts. He does not have a win to show for it however and the Padres are 0-4 in those starts which is due to poor run support. Taijuan Walker counters for Arizona and nearly the exact opposite has taken place for him. He has a 4.57 ERA and 1.38 WHIP in four starts, none of which have been quality performances but the Diamondbacks have gone 3-1 in those games as he has received 6.3 rpg. He has gotten more run support at home which has helped since he has a 6.17 ERA in two starts. Basically all of this says the Diamondbacks should be the play but not at this price as we are getting the better pitcher at this point into the season.
Handicappers Hub
Dodgers vs. Giants
Play: Giants +123
Great price here for Matt Moore against a very inconsistent Urias for the Dodgers. LA has also been struggling against left handed starters hitting just .231 and averaging 3.4 runs per game. I look for the Giants to build off last night's comeback win and start hitting the ball. Great value tonight on the home team against 4-8 road LA Dodgers.
Wunderdog
Seattle @ Detroit
Pick: Detroit -1.5
Justin Verlander walked six in his last start, a very rare stat for the ace, and I expect him to bounce back vs. Seattle. Verlander has a strong history vs. the Mariners as he has made nine consecutive quality starts against them, and in his 20 appearances owns a 3.25 ERA. Verlander has been ultra tough at home in his career which includes a winning record on the runline where he has led the Tigers to an 84-80 mark, as an average dog of +125, which has led to a beefy +13% ROI playing the Tigers on the run line when he takes the mound at home. Iwakuma has seen the M's drop all 3 of his road starts on the season, and it will be a tough match up here vs Verlander.
Bruce Marshall
Raptors at Bucks
Play: Bucks -1.5
This has been on oddball series with four of the first five games decided by double-digit margins, and an about-face in the last two games which were Toronto wins after the Bucks looked in complete control after Game 3. What we do not expect is for Toronto to shoot 58% or out rebound the Bucks 40-23 as in Game 5. Milwaukee's length is still a potential issue for the Raps, and even though the Bucks were whipped in Game 5, the Greek Freak Antetokuonmpo was effective, scoring 30 after a subpar effort in Game 4.
JOHN MARTIN
St. Louis Cardinals -1.5 Game 1
The Toronto Blue Jays are just 6-14 this season. They are playing without two of their best hitters AND defenders in Josh Donaldson and Troy Tulowitzki right now. Mat Latos has been awful over the past couple seasons. He went posted a 4.95 ERA in 2015 and a 4.89 ERA in 2016, and he's off to a 7.20 ERA in 2017. Carlos Martinez is the ace of the Cardinals' staff. He went 16-9 with a 3.04 ERA last season. Latos is 5-6 with a 5.76 ERA in 13 starts against the Cardinals. Expect St. Louis to win by multiple runs in Game 1 today.
BRANDON LEE
Nationals/Rockies Under 11
It's not easy taking the UNDER in games played at Coors Field, but I think we have a high enough total here at 11 that it's worth a look given the pitching matchup. This game will feature two of the hottest pitchers to start the season. Washington's Gio Gonzalez has a 1.35 ERA and 1.013 WHIP in 4 starts, while Colorado's Antonio Senzatela has a 2.08 ERA and 0.846 WHIP in 4 starts. Senzatela has also made two starts at home and been even better, posting a 1.93 ERA and 0.714 WHIP. UNDER is 15-4 in the Rockies last 19 games after 6 or more games at home and 33-13-5 in the Nationals last 51 games against a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
DAVE PRICE
Dodgers -125
The Los Angeles Dodgers will be hungry for a win today after losing two of the first three games in this series to the rival Giants. That's especially the case after they blew a 3-0 lead late last night and lost in extra innings. They have the clear advantage on the mound today. Julio Urias is one of the brightest young talents in the game today. He sports a 3.38 ERA in his lone lifetime start against the Giants. Matt Moore is 1-3 with a 5.87 ERA in 4 starts this season for the Giants. Moore is 3-2 with a 4.39 ERA in 5 lifetime starts vs. Los Angeles. The Dodgers are 9-3 in Urias' last 12 starts, and 6-1 in his last 7 starts vs. a team with a losing record. The Giants are 0-7 in their last 7 during Game 4 of a series. San Francisco is 11-30 in its last 41 games following a win.
JACK JONES
Astros +144
Corey Kluber is coming off his best start of the season for the Indians. He pitched a complete game shutout in 9-0 win over the Chicago White Sox. I always like fading starters coming off shutouts because it takes a lot out of them, and they usually come back fatigued and unfocused in their next start.
Kluber had been beaten up pretty good this season prior to that start, posting a 4.28 ERA in four starts on the season even with that shutout factored in. And Kluber has gone 0-2 with an 8.38 ERA in his last two starts against Houston, giving up 9 earned runs in 9 2/3 innings.
Mike Fiers hasn't gotten off to the best start this year, but now he's up against a team he has never lost to. Fiers is 2-0 with a 2.25 ERA and 1.167 WHIP in two career starts against Cleveland, both of which came last season. And the price is right to back him and the Astros here as +144 underdogs.
Kluber is just 14-22 (-18.3 Units) against the money line in the first half of the season over the last three seasons. Fiers is 18-7 (+10.5 Units) against the money line vs. teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game over the last two seasons. The Astros are 5-0 in Fiers' last five road starts. Houston is 7-0 in its last seven after allowing 5 runs or more in its previous game. The Indians are 2-9 in their last 11 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.