Larry Ness
Toronto vs. Milwaukee
Pick: Milwaukee
Postseason success hasn't exactly been a hallmark of the Toronto Raptors but for that matter, the Bucks haven't won a playoff series 2001. Toronto played its best game of the series on Monday, winning 118-93 to seize a 3-2 series advantage.Going to a three-guard lineup didn't seem like much of a big deal in Game 4 (Toronto scored just 87 points in an 11-point win) but in Game 5, Norman Powell erupted for 25 points, while the team's regular starting backcourt of DeRozan (18) and Lowry (16) combined for 34 points.
"You can talk about it but you’ve got to go out there and you’ve got to play. You've got to know how it feels to get your (expletive) kicked, right? And that’s what happened (Monday)," head coach Jason Kidd told reporters. "Being a young team, we were in that position in Game 3 (winning big). We have to understand what took place so we know what we have to do come Game 6." Milwaukee is looking to overcome a recent history of embarrassing Game 6 failures at home, which includes a 120-66 loss to Chicago in 2014 and an 83-69 setback against Atlanta in 2010.
Here's the rub. The Bucks have to win to avoid losing their eighth consecutive playoff series (dating back to 2001). However, Toronto is 0-3 under Dwane Casey when it has had the chance to end a series in six games. Nothing changes here. It was Toronto's 'day' in Game 5 and its Milwaukee's turn to 'shine' here in Game 6. Take the home team.
Brad Wilton
San Antonio and Memphis have been playing some rather "offensive" contests in this opening round, as each of the last 3 series meetings, and 4 of the 5 overall between these Western Conference rivals have ended up landing Over the posted total.
Not only have the Spurs played to Overs in 4 of 5 this postseason, but the Over has been the play in 6 of the Spurs last 7 games, and 8 of their last 12 dating back to the regular season.
Memphis is on an 8-4-1 Over clip their last 13 games that date back to the regular season, and 4 of the last 5 times they have played host to San Antonio the total has played High.
Tuesday night saw the bench points between the teams combine for 76 whopping points. As long as the bench continues to produce for both squads, no reason the Over shouldn't move to 5-1 in this best-of-seven series.
Spurs-Grizzlies Over.
3* SAN ANTONIO-MEMPHIS OVER
Jack Brayman
In Ottawa, no problem.
While the Ottawa Senators looked defensive and physical against the Boston Bruins, I was more impressed by how the New York Rangers looked against the Montral Canadiens.
The Rangers couldn't do anything right against Montreal in the regular season, but looked dominating in the playoffs.
I do expect a low-scoring, physical series. But I think the Rangers make a statement with a win on the road in Game 1 - just like we saw last night with both guests.
Take New York tonight.
1* RANGERS
Eric Schroeder
I am more or less taking the Pittsburgh Penguins with the value price in Washington. The Pens looked much better than the Caps did in the opening round, and since Washington was pushed further and worked harder, I think the Pens will be fresher.
These are the top two teams in the postseason, but Pittsburgh is the defending Stanley Cup champion. That means something, and since this is the most important game for the Pens, of the first two, I think they come out for the dominating win.
Take the road pup.
5* PENGUINS
MIKE MENASE
Astros vs. Indians
Play: Under 8½
This pick may seem unlikely because of the pitchers' current ERA's. Yet I expect runs to be at a premium between these two teams. Both starting pitchers have a history of recent success against the opposing lineup and I expect that to continue today. Both bullpens also rank in the top five as measured by ERA.
Kluber last played at home against Houston on September 9, 2016. He gave up four runs in seven innings. Three of the runs came off of the bat of Marwin Gonzalez in a single swing. Today's game, however, is played in April. Gonzalez is very much a better who improves his consistency and effectivity as the season progresses. So last April, his BA was merely .222 compared to .264 in September and October. In this April, he has managed just two hits since April 14. I don't worry about Gonzalez today because he has yet to become a consistent threat this season. Overall, current Houston batters are managing just a .206 BA and .585 ops against Kluber in 97 at-bats. Houston batters really struggle against the kind of pitching that Kluber enjoys. Kluber possesses a balance of power and finesse. His cutter is explosive and powerful, arriving at the plate at an average of 89 mph. But none of his other pitches exceed average velocity and yet they are able to generate outs by way of a balance between fly balls and ground balls. Against pitchers, like Kluber, who rely on a balance of power and finesse Astros batters are enjoying a mere .716 ops compared to .791 against primarily finesse pitchers. Against pitchers, such as Kluber, who induce a balance of fly balls and ground balls, the Astros are producing a paltry .699 ops compared to .803 against fly ball pitchers. Astros batters match up poorly with Kluber. Last season, like this season, Kluber struggled in his first three starts. But he was basically untouchable in his last outing against the White Sox and I expect another strong performance from him today.
Mike Fiers has had a difficult start to the season. He has yet to put forth a quality outing. But he has reason to look forward to playing in Cleveland, as he has given up just three runs in his last twelve innings against Cleveland. Fiers' pitching style presents match-up problems to Cleveland batters. Fiers is very much a finesse pitcher, whose pitches do not reach average velocity but rely on movement in order to generate outs. Against finesse pitchers Cleveland batters are at their worst, managing just a .722 ops compared to .818 against pitchers who do not specialize either in power or finesse. Fiers' pitches also tend to induce a balance of fly balls and ground balls. Against pitchers who consistently induce both fly balls and ground balls, the Indians are managing a mere .588 ops compared to an .842 ops against ground ball pitchers. The Indians match up poorly with Fiers. And so in 41 at-bats, Cleveland actives have managed just three extra-base hits--all doubles--against him. They have had trouble making effective contact with Fiers' pitches. So I expect a strong performance from Fiers today.
I expect both starting pitchers and both bullpens to be effective today. This game should play out more like the first game of the series--a tight and low-scoring affair.
VIC DUKE
Angels -114
Angels getting on a little roll (3-0) and we'll look for them to follow up with a sweep in this series tonight. Ricky Nolasco, tonight's starter for the Angels, not the desired go-to-guy I feel comfortable with but good enough to get by the struggling bats of Oakland who were outscored 21-7 over their three game slide. Nolasco, who skipped his last start to work out mechanical issues, should give us five decent innings until the Angels' bullpen can close this one out. On the other hand, the A's Graveman, who beat Nolasco April 3rd, is coming off a strained shoulder and could be vulnerable here to a heating up Angels' lineup. Trout and Simmons each have 10 and 7 game hitting streaks, respectively. And Maybin and Calhoun are showing good bat work as well. With the Angels at 15-5 at home against teams under .500 and in charge of this series, we'll grab them here.
RJ ROBBINS
Houston Astros vs. Cleveland Indians
Play: Houston Astros +1.5
Houston (14-7) is coming off a 7-6 set back yesterday against the Indians. We are going to take the Astros plus 1.5 Runs on the Run line. Houston's Mike Fiers takes the mound tonight against Cleveland's Corey Kluber. The only match up vereses these two foes happened around this same time last year (May 9, 2016) when Fiers beat Kluber 7-1.
Bob Balfe
DBacks -1.5 +110
I am not a huge fan of the run line because you are asking for more than just winning the game, but the lines in tonight’s games are too high if you are playing the money line. Arizona is the best in the league at hitting right handed pitching so far so I will take my chances that they win at home by more than one.
Oskeim Sports
San Antonio at Memphis
Play: Under 190
The UNDER is a profitable 18-7-2 in San Antonio's last 27 games following a win, including 9-3 when the Spurs won their previous game by double-digits. The UNDER also falls into a very strong 32-11 system that invests on the UNDER in games in which the Spurs are coming off a win by ten or more points, provided they are facing an opponent that has scored 100+ points in each of its previous two games. The UNDER is 27-14 in games in which the Grizzlies take the floor looking to avenge a double-digit road loss over the last three seasons.
The betting public is favoring the OVER in Game 6 in light of the fact that four of the first 5 contests in this series have landed OVER the posted total. However, variance has played a significant role in helping those games go over the total. Specifically, both teams have combined to make 40% of their three-point attempts, with the Grizzlies converting an uncharacteristic 37.3% of their shots from beyond the arc.
While San Antonio is a good three-point shooting team (39.3% in 2016-17), the Spurs are making an incredible 41.9% of their three-pointers in this series.
Such variance from beyond the arc has caused the betting market to overreact with tonight's total, thereby giving bettors excellent value with the UNDER.
Ian Cameron
New York at Ottawa
Play: Ottawa -105
My clients and I cashed several tickets on the Ottawa Senators in their opening round win over the Boston Bruins. This is in my opinion and undervalued squad and one I’ll be actively looking to back as the square off against the New York Rangers. On the surface, New York’s 4-2 series win over Montreal looks impressive but the fact remains they scored only 11 goals. Their success had a lot to do with Montreal’s totally inept offense that couldn’t buy a goal and found it very difficult to gain the blue line and generate scoring chances. Unlike the Canadiens, the Senators have offensive firepower. Bobby Ryan, Kyle Turris, Derick Brassard, Mark Stone, Mike Hoffman and Clarke MacArthur all registered multiple points against the Bruins. And star defenseman Erik Karlsson was phenomenal along the blue line as he piled up 7 points. The Rangers received outstanding goaltending from Henrik Lundqvist against the Canadiens but he really wasn’t challenged in the way I expect in this series. Ottawa also proved on multiple occasions against Boston that it could hold on to a lead which is an important trait this time of year. There is still a fair bit of disrespect in the betting markets for the Ottawa Senators pricing them at a near even money on their home ice. I’ll step in and take advantage of a very value-ladened wager.
Stephen Nover
Penguins +128
This is a much anticipated series. The Capitals have much to prove. I'll fade them in this Game 1 taking a 'dog price with the defending Stanley Cup champion Penguins.
Pittsburgh has the better forward depth and the hotter goalie. The Capitals have some prolific goal scorers but they can't match Pittsburgh's one-two center punch of Sidney Crosby and Evegni Malkin. No team can.
The Capitals have to prove they can get over the mental hurdle of beating Pittsburgh something they couldn't do last year.
Washington endured a much tougher first-round series than Pittsburgh did. The Penguins did away with the Blue Jackets in five games, while the Capitals were hard-pressed to put down the upstart Maple Leafs. Toronto took Washington to six games with each matchup decided by one goal and five of the contests going into overtime.
The Penguins can follow the well-coached Maple Leafs' blueprint of limiting the Capitals' time in the offensive zone while taking advantage of broken plays. They have the skaters who can do this well.
Note this trend, too: The Penguins have won six of the past eight times when having three or more days off between games. The Capitals are 1-7 when in that situation.