DAVE COKIN
HAWKS AT CELTICS
PLAY: HAWKS -1.5
Brad Stevens has the Celtics way ahead of schedule as far as their rebuilding process goes. I don’t think there’s much question Boston is on the way back to being a contender. But right now, they’re a shorthanded squad that might be running out of gas and I suspect the Celts will get closed out tonight.
The home team has won each of the five games in this series, but I don’t see much argument to the assessment that Atlanta has been the superior team in this series. Fact is, the Hawks probably ought to be relaxing and waiting for the second round already, but give the Celtics credit for grinding out two wins at home to make this series interesting.
But the injury report has wreaked havoc with the Celtics. Losing Avery Bradley was a huge blow to Boston’s chances of winning this series. Kelly Olynyk has been extremely limited. Now Isaiah Thomas is nursing an ankle, and while he’ll play tonight, I would not be surprised if the exciting guard is a bit limited physically.
I don’t believe the Hawks are any better than Boston with full rosters on each side. But that hasn’t been the case in this series and it looks to me as though the Celtics are getting worn down at this point. They were really dragging in the second half of Game Five and I’m not sure they have enough fuel in the tank to battle Atlanta on even or better terms for 48 minutes at this juncture.
The bettors apparently don’t feel the same way, in spite of some clear adjustments in the numbers by the oddsmakers. Boston was a three-point favorite in Game Three. Now one week later, they’re a 1.5 or perhaps even a two-point dog against the same team on the same court. Yet the ticket percentage count continues to be pretty defined, if not a landslide. And once again, as I’m writing this piece, the Celtics are again commanding most of the attention from the players.
I know the Celtics are going to give this all they’ve got, as this is simply not a team that mails it in. But we did see a white flag get waved in Game Five and while this won’t be as lopsided, I believe the gap between these teams is widening. I’m spotting the small spread and backing the Hawks to wrap up the series with the win and cover tonight.
Sleepyj
Atlanta -2
Ya have to wonder just how healthy Isaiah Thomas is right now..It's rather clear the departure from the starting lineup with Bradley has been bad for the C's..Now you throw in another banged up player and that might be even worse...The big fix for Atlanta was getting Milsap and Horford going..They started out the series rather slow, but have been figuring out how to score the basketball...Atlanta might have a shot here to steal this series on the road tonight..Something smells fishy with Boston as a home dog....I'll back the road team here.
Oakland / Detroit Under 8.5
I actually like Bassitt from Oakland and believe he can step up and avoid the big inning..His pitching has really stepped up and he is looking for his first win of the season..It won;t be easy facing off against the Tigers at home, but I think Detroit will struggle here hitting the ball...Tigers have looked much better over the last few games, but something says they struggle..Early start time here after a late finish last night might have the bats a bit sluggish..Pitching should dominate here today...Sanchez gets the nod for the Tigers and he has been up and down..A's lineup isn't
Brad Wilton
Thursday comp play is the Braves and Red Sox to make it 3 straight Overs as they conclude their home/home four game set.
After a 1-0 final on Monday night, the teams have combined for 15 and 13 runs the past two days, and there should be more runs to post on the Fenway Park scoreboard tonight.
The Braves are now 4-2 Over coming into this game over their last 6 games, and are an overall 6-3-1 Over in their last 10 contests.
The Red Sox are on a 6-2 Over run their last 8 games overall.
Jhoulys Chacin and Clay Buchholz are listed, and Chacin has come back to earth after starting the season with 11-inning scoreless streak, as he has allowed 7 runs over his last 6-plus innings of work.
Buchholz has been a bust so far this season with an 0-2 mark and an over 6 ERA.
Look for the runs to add up.
Braves-Red Sox Over the total.
5* ATLANTA-BOSTON OVER
Rob Vinciletti
Penguins vs. Capitals
Play: Capitals -130
The Caps are the 1 seed and have home loss revenge on the Penguins for a loss her a few weeks ago,. Round 2 game 1 home teams are a solid 126-62 all time. Washington has won 20 of 28 at home when the total is 5 or less and 8 of 10 off 3+ games that went under the total. In games off a shutout win they are 3-1. Look for them to get an early jump in the series over the Penguins tonight.
Marc Lawrence
Marlins vs. Dodgers
Play: Marlins +114
Edges - Marlins: Jose Fernandez 3-0 career team starts in this series. Dodgers: 2-4 last six games in this series and 2-4 last six home games in this series. With the Dodgers 2-4 in their last six games versus N.L. East division opponents, we recommend a 1* play on Miami.
Red Dog Sports
FK Sparta Sarpsborg vs. Stabaek
Play: Sarpsborg +1100
Value play on Sarpsborg as they are big underdogs but have scored 4 goals in their last two matches. I hopeto see them score quickly and play like they have recently.
Jim Feist
Braves vs. Red Sox
Play: Over 8½
Fenway is a small park, great for hitters, and the Atlanta defense is terrible in the field, second worst in baseball in errors. Atlanta is 20-7-1 over the total on the road, plus 19-6-1 over the total away against a right-handed starter. Jhoulys Chacin goes here and the Red Sox smacked him around when they last saw him for 9 hits and 7 runs in 4 innings (15.75 ERA). Boston is No. 7 in baseball in runs scored and the over is 19-7 in the Red Sox's last 26 games vs. a team with a winning percentage below .400. Clay Buchholz goes for Boston with a 6.33 ERA with the team 3-1 over when he starts. Buchholz allowed five runs on six hits and a walk while striking out six in Saturday's 8-3 loss to the Astros. And the over is 13-6-1 in Buchholz's last 20 starts with 4 days of rest.
Larry Ness
Miami Marlins at Los Angeles Dodgers
Prediction: Los Angeles Dodgers
Kenta Maeda, the 28-year-old native of Osaka, has had remarkable start to his first season in the major leagues, opening with four straight quality starts. The history book reveals that 76 pitchers have opened their careers with four straight quality starts (since 1913) but Maeda ranks as the ONLY one to allow just one ER in that four-game span. He's worked at least six innings in each of his four outings with that lone ER coming on a solo HR by San Francisco's Joe Panik back on April 17 .
Some predicted that he would fall victim to the high altitude of Coors Field but he limited Colorado to three hits while striking out eight over 6.1 scoreless innings of a 4-1 LA win last Saturday. Maeda is 3-0 with an 0.36 ERA and 0.84 WHIP, as opponents are batting just .189 with a .240 on-base percentage against him. He has had excellent command of his pitches, issuing only five walks while striking out 23 in 25.1 innings.
The bad news is, that Miami has limited LA to a measly five runs, 15 hits and an 0-for-13 showing with runners in scoring position over three games to take its first series at Chavez Ravine since 2010. The Dodgers will take the field tonight looking to avoid being swept at home by the surging Marlins for the first time-ever and it's even more of a bitter pill to swallow as Miami is led by Don Mattingly, who managed LA from 2011 through 2015.
Mattingly will hand the ball to Jose Fernandez (1-2, 4.37 ERA), who looks to bounce back from a rough outing at San Francisco this past Saturday (he allowed four ERs on seven hits and three walks in six innings). The 23-year-old Cuban has been a different pitcher on the road during his brief career, going 5-10 with a 3.81 ERA as opposed to 18-1 with a 1.61 ERA at home. Los Angeles has yet to defeat Fernandez, who is 2-0 with a 2.84 ERA in three outings (Marlins are 3-0).
As noted, Fernandez can be had away from Marlins Park and losing FOUR in a row at home to the Marlins (who entered the series just 6-11 to open the 2016 season), is "NOT an option." Maeda leads the way as the Dodgers avoid the dreaded home sweep.
Dave Essler
Phillies +1.5 -145
I actually think the Phillies may win this - but don't trust their bullpen. I am fading Roark, which I intended to do after he threw 121 pitches last game. I liked the Phillies last night - but alas was a **** about it. The only reason we can get a decent total is the potential weather (chance of rain) - so I am also playing the over, meaning the Phillies need three runs. They've hit Roark hard whether he threw a lot of pitches last game or not. And, the Phillies are actually hitting better over the last seven days. I am all about "lately" in MLB, which is why I'm not trusting the Phillies pen. Or, it could be a F5 bet on the ML if you don't want the juice.
Power Sports
Philadelphia vs. Washington
Pick: Washington
The Phillies are clearly overachieving this season. Why do I say that? Well, for starters, we had every reason to expect that a team that lost 99 games in 2015 would be bad again. Then there is the matter of them being 11-10 in the won-loss department despite a -22 run differential. They will NOT sweep the Nats here in D.C.
Philly has already cashed in pretty big in this series, winning both games at +180 or higher on the money line. They beat Max Scherzer and Gio Gonzalez, but Tanner Roark will get them. Roark is coming off an outstanding start his last time out, one where he struck out 15 batters over seven innings of two-hit ball. The Phillies lineup he faces here is tied (w/ Atlanta) for the fewest runs scored in all of baseball, mind you.
Provided Roark does his job, we will still need the Washington offense to pick up the pace. They have totaled just nine hits in the series and yday saw them get shutout for the first time all season. Fortunately, the Phils are only 7-16 the L3 seasons coming off a shutout win. Aaron Nola, who gets the baseball today for Pete Mackanin's club, was really roughed up by the Nats 12 days ago, giving up seven runs in just five innings of work. It'll be more of the same this afternoon as the home team avoids what would be a very embarrassing sweep at the hands of a lowly division rival. The Phillies have not swept the Nationals in over seven years.
Brandon Shively
Oakland vs. Detroit
Pick: Over
The A’s bullpen has been overworked on this current road trip. It got worse last night as their ace Sonny Gray got pulled after two innings. That puts extra pressure on today's’ starter, Chris Bassitt, who is coming off his worst start of the season. Bassitt gave up 9 hits (2 HR) and 6 ER at Toronto last weekend. The Detroit Tigers have a similar lineup as do the Bluejays with a heavy stack of right handed bats.
Dating back to last season, seven of Bassett's last ten road starts have gone for 9 runs or more against the American League.
The Tigers will have Anibal Sanchez on the mound who has had a hard time going deep in a game this year as he is just averaging 4.2 innings per start. The Tigers bullpen is nothing special either with a 4.32 SIERA and are only averaging 6.7 strikeouts per nine innings which is ranked last in the Majors.
The Tigers switched up their lineup order putting JD Martinez in the #2 hole for Justin Upton. Martinez responded last night going 2-for-4 with 4 RBI’s. Miguel Cabrera is 7-for-12 with 2 homeruns in this series. Victor Martinez is 5-for-10 in the series and leadoff man Ian Kinsler is 4-for-13.
The OVER is 5-1 this season when the total is 8.5 runs in Detroit Tiger’s games. The OVER is 7-0 in Sanchez’s L7 home starts dating back to last year. The OVER is 7-1 in his L8 home starts vs. the American League when the total is 8.5.
Brandon Lee
Pirates -104
This is a great price to back Pittsburgh, as we have two teams that are headed in different directions. The Pirates have won 4 straight and 6 of their last 7 overall, while the Rockies have lost 5 straight and 7 of their last 8 overall. It's been a disappointing start to the season for Pittsburgh starter Juan Nicasio after a sensational spring, but he's going to be extremely motivated to pitch well here against his former team. Even if he struggles, I still like the Pirates to come out on top, as their offense should be able to put up a big number here against the Rockies Tyler Chatwood. In two home starts, Chatwood has a 7.20 ERA and 2.000 WHIP and will be facing a Pittsburgh offense that has scored 36 runs in their last 4 games.
Martin Griffiths
River Plate vs. Independiente
Play: Independiente PK½
Argentinian outfit River Plate travel to Ecuador to face off against Independiente in the first leg of the top South American competition, the Copa Libertadores.
River Plate are the current holders of the trophy and are looking to retain the championship they won so comprehensively last year, however I fear that they will struggle to get anything from this game.
River Plate are struggling this season domestically, they are currently 8th in Group A of the Primera Division and come into this game having won just once in their last seven domestic games.
Independiente are only doing slightly better in their league, winning three times in their last seven domestic games, but are formidable at home, winning four of their five games and only losing to arguably the best team in Ecuador Emelec.
I am going with the home side to cover the spread in this game, they are at home, they have the slightly better form and they are facing a River Plate side going through a bit if a slump in form.
Jimmy Boyd
Orioles -123
The White Sox come into this game having won 6 straight, sweeping the Rangers at home and Blue Jays on the road. I believe that has created some great value here on the Orioles as a relatively small home favorite.
Chicago is sitting at 16-6 right now thanks to their pitching and those starters have a 1.70 ERA over the last nine games. Their good fortune on the mound hasn't come when today's starter John Danks is on the rubber. Danks is 0-3 with a 6.23 ERA and 1.616 WHIP. He allowed just 2 runs in 6 innings in his last start at home, but was fortunate to do so giving up 5 hits and 5 walks with just 2 strikeouts. Last year Danks was a mere 3-10 with a 5.61 ERA in 15 road starts and was far from impressive in his only road start of 2016, giving up 5 runs on 6 hits and 3 walks in 6 1/3 innings of a 2-7 loss at Tampa Bay.
Chicago is 1-5 in Danks' last 6 road starts against a team with a winning record and 0-6 in his last 6 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game. Baltimore is 17-5 in their last 22 home games overall and 5-1 in their last 6 at home against a team that's won more than 60% of their road games.
Wunderdog
Oakland vs. Detroit
Pick:Oakland +118
Detroit got the win yesterday, but this is still a flawed team with a losing home record. They are ranked #19 in OBP, #15 in errors and #15 in team ERA. One of the weak spots goes here with starter Anibal Sanchez (7.00 ERA). He has yet to make it through six innings and was ripped for seven runs and nine hits over two innings in a loss to Cleveland on Saturday. The Tigers are 14-29 when their opponent allows five runs or more in their previous game. Oakland is 8-4 on the road and 10-3 away against a right-handed starter. Starter Chris Bassitt is throwing well, with the team winning two of his last three starts allowing two and one run while going seven innings in the wins. With the Oakland offense 7-3 against righty starters, grab the visiting dog and play on Oakland.