Brandon Shively
Braves at Red Sox
Play: Braves +180
The Atlanta Braves started the season 0-9, then won four straight, and are now on an eight game losing streak. Things can’t get any worse. They have become one of the public’s favorite teams to fade and this is now when I want to look to take them. The lines makers have had to increasingly raise the odds and it’s to the point where there is value backing the Braves, particularly in this spot tonight. The Red Sox are 0-4 this season with Clay Buchholz on the mound. He has a 1.50 WHIP and has allowed 5 earned runs in three of his four starts. None of his numbers impress me at all. Buchholz has had a hard time getting batters out and the Red Sox offense has not been able to give him enough run support to cover his flaws. I’m not going to say that the Braves are overdue for a win, but I sense a victory tonight. The Red Sox are nice and happy after winning their last three games against the Braves and have a marquee series against the Yankees starting Friday. I like the pitching matchup with Jhoulys Chacin on the mound for the Braves who has a 19K/2BB mark in three starts this season. He gives the team their best chance of winning. The Braves should have five or maybe six left handed bats in the lineup. Left handed batters are hitting .316 with a 579 SLG% against Buchholz this season.
SPORTS WAGERS
Series - Pittsburgh +102 over WASHINGTON
This should probably be the Eastern Final but the NHL’s flawed seeding system has one of these two teams going home after round two. While we understand that the Penguins taking the Rangers lunch money in round one doesn’t count for much, the Capitals didn’t exactly dispose of the Flyers the way they were supposed to either.
In fact, one could argue that if Philadelphia would’ve started Michal Neuvirth in Game 1 and stayed with him, the Capitals may have been in trouble. Take away the six goals on 27 shots that the Caps scored in that bizarre Game 3 in Philadelphia and Washington scored just eight times in the other five games. In the final three games of that series, Washington scored just two goals! Philadelphia’s big guns didn’t produce in that series but it’s hard to imagine that the same fate awaits the Penguins here.
We should also point out that the Capitals incredible regular season record included them winning half of their games by one goal. Why is that significant? In the world of hockey analytics, the dominant theory has been that a team's record in one-goal games is almost entirely unpredictable. This was first established by Gabriel Desjardins of Hockey Prospectus. He ran a regression analysis on every team's data from 1979-80 through this season and found that the season-to-season correlation of a team's record in one-goal games was an almost nonexistent 0.05. In other words, if a team wins 28 games by one goal one year, the norm is that they’ll win about 14 to 17 one-goal games the next year. Essentially, the ability to win close games comes and goes, which leads to the belief that random, lucky bounces have more to do with it than skill (did you see that puck go over Pekka Rinne’s glove and hit the crossbar late in the third period of Game 7)? If you stayed up to watch it, of course you did because they replayed it 25 times. That’s luck and it’s not one game. It happens every night in every game. If some teams have an actual talent in this department, then why does it suddenly disappear? Winning games by a goal means that you are a bounce away from losing them too and we have all seen deflections miss or go in or pucks being rung off the iron. Our ability to answer these questions is why close-game records are one of the five major factors included in luck-driven stats and why Washington's considerable success in this area is just as likely to expire as to continue. If it continues, we’ll rip up our ticket and say oh well but if it doesn’t, we’ll likely see you at the cashier’s window.
Here’s another example: Detroit led the league (tied with Washington) in one-goal victories this year with 28. However, Detroit had the fewest three-goal or more victories in the entire league with just six all year. We all know where Detroit is now. Incidentally, the Penguins had 18 three-goal (or more) victories, which was the third best in the league behind Chicago and San Jose.
Please don’t get us wrong. We’re not suggesting the Capitals are all luck. They are a deep, talented team that is capable of winning this series without luck. What we are suggesting is that the Caps regular season record was much better on paper than it was on the ice. We’re also suggesting that the Penguins are the better team.
The Penguins are rolling. They scored 11 goals in the final two games of their series against New York and made King Henrik look like Jonas Hiller. They also scored five goals on the Rangers in Game 1. Scoring five times is nothing new for the Pens. They did so in seven of the past 11 games they have played, including the playoffs, which traditionally is much tougher to score goals in. The Penguins are healthy and they are also in great form. We often see teams’ in all sports that peak at the right time make a deep run in the playoffs and the Penguins appear to be on that same path. The Penguins also have an ace in the hole with young Matt Murray in goal. Murray now has a series under his belt and he has the talent to thrive. At the end of the day, getting in front of a current freight train may not be a good idea and that current freight train is not the host. We’re playing the Penguins in the series and we’ll also play them whenever a tag is offered. That means we’re also playing them in Game 1.
SPORTS WAGERS
Philadelphia (5 innings) +130
One of the markets' favorite angles is to play on a good home team after said team dropped the first two games of a three-game set. The thinking is that the said squad is not going to get swept at home by an inferior opponent. That angle has been ruining bankrolls forever and it’s one you NEVER see us apply because it’s ridiculous. We’re not saying that the Phillies are going to win here but if they do lose it’s not because they won the first two games of this series. In fact, Philly is now 11-10 on the young season and have won five of its past six games. Aaron Nola went 6-2 with a 3.59 ERA in 78 innings for the Phillies last season. The short-term scouting report nailed it when it claimed that Nola would arrive quickly with polish. This 2014 draftee had MLB-ready control and a nice groundball lean though his 7.9 K’s/9 surpassed expectations. In four starts this year, Nola has posted a rough 4.50 ERA but a closer look reveals plenty of reasons for optimism. Check out his 30/5 K/BB in 26 innings, primarily as the result of pounding the strike zone early (65% first-pitch strike). Nola has immediate rebound potential and great profits in that young arm of his pitching for the undervalued Phillies.
At prices like this, Tanner Roark has bankroll killer written all over his profile. Despite owning a 2.85 ERA and 1.09 WHIP in 2014, Roark was squeezed out of his team’s starting rotation in 2015. He spent the year working mostly out of the bullpen, making 12 starts in 40 appearances. Now back as a starter, he has a nifty 2.63 ERA after four starts, however, this is a lackluster skill set. Roark’s best asset is his control, but first pitch strike rate (58%) and Ball% imply that he was a bit fortunate that his control wasn’t closer to league average in 2015. His groundball % bounced back, but he still had issues with the long ball. Strikeouts have never been Roark’s strong suit, but his K-rate sank to a new low in 2015. He has 24 K’s in 24 innings this year but his 8% swing and miss rate says that the K's will not contnue at this current rate. Roark's 1.38 WHIP hints that his 2.63 ERA is going to move significantly in the wrong direction. Regardless of the major differences between Roark’s ERA and WHIP from 2014 to 2015, he was principally the same pitcher. Don’t let his early numbers cloud the view. This is an average starter who rode some good fortune to a career year in 2014. Tanner Roark is the second best starter in this matchup.
Atlanta (5 innings) +175
After cruising through the first half of 2015, it looked like Clay Buchholz had gotten beyond his disappointing 2014 performance. But a July elbow injury shelved him for the rest of the year. With wild ERA swings and 207 days on the DL the past three years, the risk on Buchholz is becoming bigger by the start. He has one quality start in four tries and brings an unsightly 1.50 WHIP to this start. Buchholz has already been tagged for four jacks this season in 21 innings of work. Buchholz’s ERA of 6.33 is bound for regression because his strand rate is so low but he still brings a xERA of 4.59 into this one. Even against the Braves, Clay Buchholz cannot be priced in this range. The Braves bullpen is weak while Boston’s pen is strong, thus the five-inning wager.
What does Juan Nicasio (was on a lot of people’s radar because of a great spring) and Jhoulys Chacin have in common? They are both pitchers that have spent the majority of their careers pitching for the Rockies but are now pitching elsewhere. Coors Field dramatically favors hitters over pitchers. 2015 Park Factors show that Coors allows 17 percent more runs and 13 percent more home runs than an average park, which comes as no surprise.
Furthermore, with all the data out there, it is not difficult to project what a pitcher is capable of when he’s not pitching half his games at Coors. However, it may not be as cut and dry as it seems. You see, pitchers are not machines. They are human and one cannot take the human element out of anything. When a pitcher is pitching at Coors, it’s just not normal. At first it is but then the hits start coming in droves and so do the runs. Pitchers subsequently change their mindset and start nibbling on the corners or trying to be too fine. They lose their aggressiveness and perhaps their confidence too. Psychologically, the damage that Coors Field does to a pitcher’s entire approach cannot be measured, nor can it be overstated enough, which brings us to Jhoulys Chacin once again.
Chacin has a BB/K split of 2/19 in 17 frames covering three starts. His 14% swing and miss rate supports the strikeouts. Chacin also beings a 53% groundball rate to this start along with a 16% line-drive rate. That line drive rate is the eighth best mark in the majors this year among pitchers with three or more starts. Throw in a 10% rate on infield pop-ups and you start to get a clearer picture of Chacin’s effectiveness this season. Of course this sample size is a small one and things may come crashing down in a hurry for Chacin but there is no question that he’s being aggressive and he's succeeding. Until he shows us something different, we are going to roll with him at prices like this. The Braves don’t win many games but they have had many leads after five innings this season and this can certainly be another one of those.
ARIZONA (5 innings) +108
Michael Wacha’s career splits paint a fuzzy picture. At times he has been great like in the first half of last season when he posted a 2.88 ERA, 1.15 WHIP and 8.7 K’s/9 in 119 IP (mid-May thru Aug). Then came September in which Wacha ran out of gas (7.88 ERA). There are glimpses of greatness every year for Wacha but there are also glimpses of pure shakiness too. After four starts this year, Wacha has an ERA of 2.82 and the market is likely going to eat that up and lay the small price on the Cardinals but we urge you to proceed with caution. You see, Wacha has faced Milwaukee (at home), Cincinnati (at home) and San Diego (at Petco) in three of his four starts so he’s had the benefit of pitching all of those games at pitcher friendly venues. He also pitched at Pittsburgh’s PNC Park (another pitcher’s park) and was whacked to the tune of 10 hits and five runs in 4.1 innings. Wacha brings a 1.43 WHIP and a .301 oppBA to this start and for the first time this season he’ll pitch at a hitter’s park. There are more red flags too. Wacha’s swing and miss rate is a mere 6% this season. It was 2% in his last start at San Diego. His line drive rate of 38% is the fourth highest mark in the majors among pitchers with three or more starts. Michael Wacha is very likely going to get whacked here.
We’ll sum up Rubby De La Rosa’s 2015 season for you: Righties cowered, lefties towered, first half glory, second half gory. With such dramatic splits, what's the takeaway? Well, De La Rosa’s 2015 season innings pitched doubled his career total (which explains at least some of that second half), and his metrics show skills are solidifying, so there is a case for at least some long-term optimism. We also like that De La Rosa has absolutely electric skills against righties and if he can figure out lefties, his stock will skyrocket. This year, lefties are hitting .267 off De La Rosa while righties are hitting just .222. De La Rosa has 18 K’s in 17 frames to go along with a nifty 58% groundball rate. His ERA is 5.94 but he has a 3.11 xERA so regression is on the way. What we have here is two pitchers with misleading ERA’s that are both in for an ERA correction that works in our favor. Wacha gonna do? We’re playing the D-Backs in 5 frames.
Jeff Alexander
Red Sox -1.5 +106
Boston has won 4 straight and are scorching at the plate with 20 runs in their last 2 games. I'll back the Red Sox on the run line Thursday against the slumping Braves, who have dropped 8 straight in which they are averaging a mere 2.4 runs/game. Boston's Clay Buchholz comes in with a ugly 6.33 ERA and 1.50 WHIP in 4 starts, but is more than capable of shutting down this Atlanta offense. He was also dominant in his last home start, throwing 6 2/3 scoreless innings against a potent Blue Jays offense. Atlanta is 1-13 in their last 14 after losing their last 2 and have lost these by an average of 3.5 runs/game.
Jack Jones
St. Louis Cardinals -110
Nice value here with the St. Louis Cardinals as only -110 road favorites over the Arizona Diamondbacks. They have scored a combined 45 runs in winning four of their last five games for an average of 9.0 runs per contest.
Their bats should stay red hot against Arizona starter Rubby De La Rosa, who is 1-2 with a 5.79 ERA and 1.357 WHIP in 3 starts this season. De La Rosa is 0-1 with a 4.91 ERA and 1.636 WHIP in 2 lifetime starts against St. Louis as well.
Michael Wacha has turned the corner in his last few starts and now sits at 2-0 with a 2.82 ERA in 4 starts this year. That's because he's 2-0 with a 1.50 ERA in his last 3 starts, allowing just 3 earned runs in 18 innings of work.
Wacha is 15-4 (+10.2 Units) against the money line in the first half of the season over the last 2 seasons. The Cardinals are 6-0 in Wacha's last six starts vs. a team with a losing record. St. Louis is 26-11 in Wacha's last 37 starts overall.
Dave Price
Miami Marlins +117
Rarely will you get the chance to back Jose Fernandez as an underdog all season. He is off to a bit of a slow start this season at 1-2 with a 4.37 ERA and 1.279 WHIP in 4 starts, but that simply has him undervalued right now. He has struck out 32 batters in 22 2/3 innings, so his stuff is still dominant. Fernandez has never lost to the Dodgers, going 2-0 (3-0 on money line) with a 2.84 ERA in 3 lifetime starts against them. The Marlins are 4-0 in their last 4 road games, and I look for Fernandez to lead them to a 5th straight road victory tonight.
SPS Investors
Milwaukee vs. Chicago
Pick: Milwaukee
On paper and given the odds that the oddsmakers have set, this has the appearance of one of the biggest mismatches of the MLB season. Jake Arieta is a phenom and looks even sharper than he did last season when he won the CY Young award. He is 4-0 on the season with an ERA under 1.00. He is coming off his second no-hitter in the last 2 seasons and is now pitching opposite of a struggling Taylor Jungmann who is 0-3 with an ERA of 8.47. There is no question that this is a mis-match, however we do believe the odds are inflated.
Arrieta is coming off of an impressive no-hitter in his last start against the Cincinnati Reds. While that performance was no doubt impressive, it also leaves both Arrieta and the Cubs in a prime situation for a letdown performance. History has shown that oddsmakers do overvalue pitchers coming off of impressive outings, simply because the public perception of them is so high at the moment. The pitcher themselves usually take the mound a bit overconfident as well and that has typically led to mistakes and miscues with their pitch selection and delivery.
The Milwaukee bats have actually hit Arrieta rather hard in the past with Alex Presley, Ryan Braun and Aaron Hill all having batting averages above .400. Both Martin Maldonado and Scooter Gennett have also had success against him, sporting .333 and .261 averages respectively. The Brewers certainly have more than a "puncher's chance" in this contest and we wouldn't be surprised if they came out and gave Arrieta his first loss of the season. There is no question that the media and spotlight has been all over Arrieta over the past week and the Brewers would like nothing more than to "shock the world" and come away with a win.
Baseball is a funny sport in that a single miscue of mistake can alter the landscape of the game. There is so much variance involved over the course of a season that every player, starting pitchers included, go through highs and lows and they can happen at any given time. Arrieta may be a dominant pitcher; however he is human and is prone to having an off outing just as Jungmann may be struggling at the moment but has the talent and capability of pitching a gem. If that actually happens, remains to be seen, however the possibility is certainly there and at a more than 3:1 return on investment, there is certainly value backing the Brewers in this particular situation.
Ian Cameron
Miami at Los Angeles
Play: Under 6.5
We have two impressive starters on the mound here with Jose Fernandez for Miami and Kenta Maeda for Los Angeles. Fernandez hasn’t been at his absolute best in April but we know he has the stuff to be a dominant starter. This should be a good matchup for him considering the Dodgers haven't faced him in two years and in three career starts, he held LA to six earned runs as the Marlins won all three games. Kenta Maeda has been dominant, allowing just one run in 25.1 innings of work through his first four starts. Not only are the stats impressive, but when you watch Maeda throw, he induces a lot of weak contact and swings and misses which speaks to the high level of his stuff. Miami has a very erratic lineup which can be productive in certain games and feeble in others and it’s worth noting they have been weaker against right-handed starters this season which should lead to another potential strong outing from Maeda. I saw plenty of feeble at-bats last night from these two teams despite facing a couple of hittable pitchers in Justin Nicolino and the aging, declining Scott Kazmir. It is hard to envision runs in bunches tonight with two better starters on the mound tonight. The total is obviously adjusted for the quality of both starters but I still feel there is enough of a cushion to play it under the total.
Harry Bondi
BALTIMORE -130 over Chicago White Sox
We used Baltimore (+110) over Tampa Bay last night for the Baseball "Steam Team" and tonight we jump on the O's once again. ChiSox southpaw John Danks has struggled this season, going 0-3 with a 6.23 ERA and that doesn't bode well tonight against an Orioles team that has won three of four against lefty starters, averaging 6.5 runs per game. So, not only are we going with the better starter, but we also have the better bullpen as O's relievers have been outstanding this year, especially at home where they have a 1.39 ERA.
Steve Merril
Marlins / Dodgers Under 6.5
Miami will conclude their 4-game series in Los Angeles on Thursday night after a low-scoring 2-0 win last night. The Marlins will send Jose Fernandez to the mound in this game. The Dodgers are only hitting .250 with a .650 OPS (on-base plus slugging percentage metric) against him. My numbers project a strong outing for Fernandez; he is slated to give up just 1.8 runs with a fantastic 2.74 ERA and a terrific 1.12 WHIP in this game. Fernandez also projects to have an incredible 10.5 strikeout rate over 9 innings pitched.
Los Angeles will start Kenta Maeda tonight. Maeda also projects to have a strong outing in this game. My numbers project Maeda to give up just 1.9 runs with a solid 3.08 ERA and a fantastic 1.15 WHIP this evening. Maeda also projects to have a strong 8.0 strikeout rate over 9 innings pitched, and an incredible 4.5 strikeout/walk ratio in this game. He is backed by a Los Angeles bullpen that has an excellent 1.75 ERA and 0.74 WHIP at home this season. Look for another low-scoring game between the Marlins and Dodgers on Thursday night.
Bruce Marshall
Hawks / Celtics Under 198.5
Compelling series though it has strongly favored the home side. Which tonight favors Boston after the host team won the first five games. The Celtics won Game Three and Four at TD Garden when getting yeoman work from G Isaiah Thomas, who did not help in Game Five on Tuesday when scoring just seven points. Boston could recover tonight, but the series has also been trending "under" and expect more of the same in Game Six.
Ray Monohan
White Sox vs. Orioles
Play: Orioles -130
The Orioles take on the red hot White Sox at home on Thursday and laying small juice here gives them solid value given the pitching matchup.
This is a fade John Danks play here. Danks is 0-3 with an ERA of 6.23 on the season. Danks has consistently struggled with his command and continues to leave balls up in the zone. Even in his last start when he didn't pitch all that bad, he couldn't keep the consistency up and left a fastball up to Mike Trout, which is something you simply cannot do.
Baltimore has also been solid at home. The O's have gone 7-1 SU and are holding the opposition to just 2.38 runs per game.
Some trends to consider. Orioles are 5-1 in their last 6 Thursday games. Orioles are 17-5 in their last 22 home games.
Look for Baltimore to get to Danks early, as they grab another home win on Thursday.
Scott Delaney
My free play tonight is on the hottest team in the American League - the Chicago White Sox.
Seriously though, can you imagine the White Sox meeting the Chicago Cubs in the Fall Classic this year? Cause that what everyone is clamoring about right now - a Windy City World Series.
That's a long ways away, but right now, the White Sox have to be taken seriously and I'll play them tonight against the Baltimore Orioles. In this one, be sure you're listing both scheduled starters, John Danks and Tyler Wilson
We're getting a value price because Danks has underachieved thus far this season. He is the highest paid player on the team, at $15.75 million this season, but he's lost all three of his starts with a 6.23 ERA. In fact, the left-hander has lost each of his last six starts with a 6.21 ERA and opponents' batting average on balls in play of .358.
So, with this one on the road, and him having control problems, he is an underdog.
But Chicago (16-6) has been playing well and is looking to make it six straight wins to start this series. Chicago starters have a 1.70 ERA over the last nine, a stretch during which the club's only loss came in Danks' last outing. The South Siders are 10-3 on the road and are 10 games above .500 for the first time since September 2012.
Meanwhile, I think the Sox will back their No. 1 starter, and jump on Wilson early and often in this one.
Take the O's.
1* WHITE SOX
Gabriel DuPont
Free play for tonight, as I look to improve on my 48-35 run with complimentary plays: Atlanta at BOSTON (-1', -105)
The STORYLINE in this game today - The Atlanta Braves leave Turner Field and continue their series with the Boston Red Sox in Beantown, where I think it's going to be extremely ugly. We've already seen the Braves open the season on a nine-game skid, so why not expect this team to lose another nine in a row. Yes, the Braves have lost eight straight. And now they take on a team that has won four in a row.
The X-FACTOR in making this choice on this game - The Braves (4-17) just can't get out of their own way, and they suck, to put it bluntly. They're the worst team in baseball and comes into this one tied with Philadelphia for the fewest runs in the majors and has suffered from a lack of power. They're one of the league's few teams still without a triple, and it has just four home runs. They've also been outscored by 44 runs.
BOTTOM LINE is - The Red Sox, meanwhile, are averaging 7 runs per game during their winning streak, Dustin Pedroia is hitting .441 with eight extra-base hits over his last seven. He stroked a grand slam and added a solo homer Wednesday. That is bad news for Atlanta's starters who have a 6.99 ERA over the last six.
2* BOSTON -1.5
Dr. Bob
Opinion – UNDER (198) - Atlanta (-2) at BOSTON
This series has been played at a slower than expected pace in 4 games since Boston lost G Avery Bradley and my math projects 196½ total points based on the average pace of those 4 games. Game 6 tends to be a bit lower scoring than games 1 through 5 and an adjustment based on that would yield a prediction of 195 total points. I’ll lean Under 197 points or higher.
I have no opinion on the side, as my ratings make this game a pick – so the value is with Boston – but the Celtics apply to a 9-33 ATS game 6 situation.