Vegas Butcher
St Louis Cardinals -116
Rubby De La Rosa had a strong outing in his first start of the year, but he’s still a mediocre pitcher (4.6 ERA and FIP for his career), and I’ll need more than just one outing before I start taking notice. Now he’s facing the #1 ranked offense in the league and this will be a true test. Cardinals are excellent offensively against the ‘slider’, De La Rosa’s best offering, and I think we’ll see him give up some hits here. Throw in his 1.3 HR/9 rate and inability to pitch well to lefties (STL should have at least 3 in the lineup tonight), and I expect the Cards to have a lot of success against him here. My model has this one at STL -140 so I’ll grab the value tonight.
OC Dooley
Capitals -125
One can argue this is a law-of-averages wager after both “road” teams won last night including a game-seven win or take all setup. While visiting Pittsburgh is starting to get healthy their lead goaltender Marc-Andre Fleury (concussion) remains sidelined leaving the pressure on young 21 year old Matt Murray. The Capitals counter with Braden Holtby (0.84 goals against average in the opening series) and he led all of hockey netminders in victories (48) while the entire team had hockey’s #1 overall regular season record. One of the reasons for Washington’s prosperity is “balance” on both offense and defense featuring strong puck movers. This season Washington is 13-3 (after losing twice in a three-game span) along woth 17-5 (after consecutive games that went below the total). In contrast Pittsburgh the past couple of campaigns after an offensive explosion of at least 6 goals has followed it up with a poor 4-10 record